Tigers re-sign V-Mart

[Cap'n Piranha]

For 4 years at 17 per.

 

Way to keep kicking that salary can down the road Dombrowski. Not good enough to win the series now, absolutely no farm system at all, and contracts too terrible to trade for pieces. Detroit's about two to three years away from being AWFUL.

[Mike Sixel]

Like the Twins are now, following their model? Isn't that the "natural cycle" that people here use to excuse the Twins right now? Are you sure they'll stop spending to be good at some point?

[JB_Iowa]

Like the Twins are now, following their model? Isn't that the "natural cycle" that people here use to excuse the Twins right now? Are you sure they'll stop spending to be good at some point?

 

Depemds on how long Illitch lives.

[Mike Sixel]

Even if they do stop, how is that different than being bad like the Twins are right now? Just different approaches to the same eventual place (unless you are the Cards, apparently).

[bird]

Like the Twins are now, following their model? Isn't that the "natural cycle" that people here use to excuse the Twins right now? Are you sure they'll stop spending to be good at some point? 

 

 The distinction is quite obvious, really. WHEN, not if, the Tigers reach the bottom of their cycle, they will have a barren farm system, one ranked in the bottom 2 or 3. When the Twins hit bottom three years ago, mike, their farm system still had some talent, never ranked on average below #17. In addition to that, there's a chance that when Detroit hits bottom, they will quite possibly still have a standing commitment of over $100M in dead contracts. Will Illitch still have the stomach to spend? And much more importantly, even if he continues to be willing to bump up against the current $189M (!!) luxury tax threshold, his new GM and team will not be able to buy its way out of doldrums, because they'll have too many holes to fill. The Detroit bottom will be worse, much worse. They'll have no ability to trade for pieces, no real hope from the farm system, and limited financial flexibility.

 

Do you know why they signed VMart for $17M and four years? Because they just read BA's Top Ten Prospects list for 2015 for the team and immediately threw up a little in their mouths and upped their bid. 

 

I'll take a bet from all comers: if the Tigers have two of their four aces go down with injury, which I put at about 50/50, they finish 3rd, maybe even 4th or 5th, in our division, behind KC, Cleveland, and maybe even behind the Sox and yes, the Twins.

 

I can't think of a model to steer away from more enthusiastically that Detroit's, mike.

[Mike Sixel]

If you are Detroit.....should you just fold right now, even though you are a great team? Not sign any players to fill holes, and just punt (since, their minor league system won't add any players this year)?

 

What should Detroit do differently, NOW, from where they are? If the Twins lose Dozier and Hughes, how good will they be?

 

And, that 17th rated system hasn't helped the Twins win. That's my point. Why is it ok to be awful, and patient, and then good, and then awful, and then good, rather than awful and impatient, then good, then bad, then awful, then good?

 

If the outcomes are pretty much the same, why is one wrong, bad, evil, and one is a ok?

[nicksaviking]

Detroit is going to get bad, real quick.  Still, it's hard to complain about their method as they are attempting to put together a WS winning caliber team each year.  They have some bad contracts that will run 4-5 more years.  Even if their collapse begins this year, their nadir likely won't be any longer than the current drought the Twins are in and at least they went all out trying to win the championship before their inevitable implosion.

 

Sure they don't have a farm, but Detroit doesn't rely on their farm and they haven't in a long time.  When they shake the restraints of the current burdonsome contracts, they'll go right back to trades and free agency to rebuild, which may actually be a safer bet and a quicker fix than relying on the prospects.

[Brandon]

Well the Tigers just traded their top rated prospect for a CF prospect who can platoon with Raj Davis next year.  There's not much down on their farm.  But they still seem to get atleast 1 -2 new players out of it regardless.  Smyly was up last year and appears to be pretty good.  Granted he was traded for Price.  Try to extend the winning for as long as you can.  With VMart and Cabrera in the lineup they won't have a terrible lineup and they do have a few other decent hitters.  but they are short on the farm that's for sure.  I guess now they'll be forced to try to develop some talent before their time runs out so it won't be a huge rebuild like ours was. 

 

The main thing for Detroit is not to follow our model of giving away talent like we did from 2008 to 2011 in trades, and FA exoduses and injury and aging and not having good drafts at the same time. 

[USAFChief]

 

Like the Twins are now, following their model? Isn't that the "natural cycle" that people here use to excuse the Twins right now? Are you sure they'll stop spending to be good at some point? 

 

 The distinction is quite obvious, really. WHEN, not if, the Tigers reach the bottom of their cycle, they will have a barren farm system, one ranked in the bottom 2 or 3. When the Twins hit bottom three years ago, mike, their farm system still had some talent, never ranked on average below #17. In addition to that, there's a chance that when Detroit hits bottom, they will quite possibly still have a standing commitment of over $100M in dead contracts. Will Illitch still have the stomach to spend? And much more importantly, even if he continues to be willing to bump up against the current $189M (!!) luxury tax threshold, his new GM and team will not be able to buy its way out of doldrums, because they'll have too many holes to fill. The Detroit bottom will be worse, much worse. They'll have no ability to trade for pieces, no real hope from the farm system, and limited financial flexibility.

 

Do you know why they signed VMart for $17M and four years? Because they just read BA's Top Ten Prospects list for 2015 for the team and immediately threw up a little in their mouths and upped their bid. 

 

I'll take a bet from all comers: if the Tigers have two of their four aces go down with injury, which I put at about 50/50, they finish 3rd, maybe even 4th or 5th, in our division, behind KC, Cleveland, and maybe even behind the Sox and yes, the Twins.

 

I can't think of a model to steer away from more enthusiastically that Detroit's, mike.

 

When the Tigers bottom out, will they lose more than 380 games over a four year span?

 

If not, exactly why should we view the Twins model as inherently superior?

 

Losing cheaply is, I guess, better for ownership. It doesn't do much for me as a fan, though. It's still losing.

[Thrylos]

There is spending and there is spending.   Spending $17M a year for the ages 37-40 of an aging DH with bum knees is not good spending...

[jokin]

Depemds on how long Illitch lives.

 

 

According to Forbes, the Illitch family is worth $4.2B, with the wife, 81, still active in the business as Vice Chairman and avid supporter of both the Wings and Tigers, and 48 year old son, Chris, is the CEO and President of Illitch Holdings.  I don't think too much is going to change when it comes time for the changing of the guard- but there are 7 Illitch children in all when it comes time to divide the estate.

 

By contrast, it's eash to see why the MN Twins can't compete, they only have one sports franchise to worry about, not two, and the Pohlad's are "only" worth sooo much less money-- $3.6B.   /sarc    

[The Wise One]

How quickly people forget that to get Scherzer, Sanchez, Jackson, Cabrera and a host of other players the Tigers had to give up something. Either they are the luckiest franchise around for trades or their prospects look real good before they fizzle. They have had prospects rise up and do quite well. Currently they have a lousy farm system, in other years htey have produced a little talent. Thing is, the core of the good players on hte team are over 30 for hte most part. If there is nothing in the system to use for trades then the Tigers will be down for quite awhile. It is even possible to be a worse slide than the Astros.

There are people on this board who appear not to understand that owners have accumulated net worth by not selling assets to lose money on sports teams.

[TheLeviathan]

The Tigers farm has been down for years and they keep finding ways to add big pieces. They also gave up virtually nothing to add many of their stars and have found ways to flip mistakes into assets.

 

That all said, this was a head scratcher.

[bird]

When the Tigers bottom out, will they lose more than 380 games over a four year span?

 

If not, exactly why should we view the Twins model as inherently superior?

 

Losing cheaply is, I guess, better for ownership. It doesn't do much for me as a fan, though. It's still losing.

The strategy is about trying to build sustainability. The Cards are a team that has done tat. Many others have done it. The Twins once did it. And even if an organization does it, the result is a range from decent to exceptional.

 

It's not easy to execute a strategy that calls for a strong pipeline as the foundation. The Twins lost 380 games over four years because they didn't execute, and veered from the strategy under Smith via ill-advised trades that failed miserably, IMO. That happens too. The Braves have failed to execute too, and they used to adhere to a similar philosophy, I think.

 

So, it's not a matter of right and wrong, and doesn't (necessarily) have as much to do about profits as people like to think, IMO. It does involve a consideration of financial resources. The Card's GM is quoted as saying, they rely on the draft because of costs, and FA is to be avoided because it's to0 expensive to build that way.

 

Again, the Twin's "model" is superior in theory only, because they have a shot, like the Rays back when and the Cards now and the Pirates of the future maybe, to sustain things. 

 

The last thing is this: because of the recent changes, drafting and the international markets are a more level playing field. That means it has become more difficult to build a superior farm system, so teams like the Tigers are going to have a longer, more difficult time building up a pipeline. There are only maybe 4 aces in the average draft, and most are gone before the tenth pick, like I think Verlander was. I may be off on this, but how many true aces are out there? 20? And how many were NOT top ten picks? Half? 

 

Not your statement, Chief, but I'm always baffled when someone comments that building up the farm system "hasn't worked" instead of stating the more important thing: it is working, and it borders on the obtuse to ignore all the signs of that, wouldn't you say?

[kab21]

We have been saying that the Tigers were set to bottom out for years yet they still keep winning despite never having a good farm system and not developing many players. 

 

The Tigers are not going to have a longer, more difficult time building up the pipeline.  They don't need to build up the pipeline because they will spend money.  Baseball is not like football or basketball with salary caps.  It's an uneven playing field.  One great thing the Tigers have done is cashing in uncertainty of cheap prospects for really good or even elite players. 

[TheLeviathan]

I'm pretty sure the "Detroit's farm system sucks, these guys are going to be bad soon" meme goes back to BYTO and they just acquired Price this year and made the playoffs again.

 

Time to bury that one until Detroit actually takes a dive because this team has proven to be remarkably adept at maximizing it's trade pieces.

[Brandon]

I think Detroit will still be good next year though they will have more holes with Hunter and Shertzer leaving.   The hole will be even bigger when Price leaves after next year. Also if Verlander continues to slide that can cause problems too especially after Price leaves.  They will have a few relievers come off the books next year so they may keep Price and they may decide to continue to increase spending too.  Eventually though they will relent for a rebuild and I imagine they will start collecting prospects again. 

 

The Tigers will eventually end up like the Phillies now.  The Phillies have now decided to start their rebuild and they do not have much to work with out the gates.  They will have to add a lot of money to these contracts to get some prospects.  And it will be a few years for them to draft and develop too. 

[kab21]

I think Detroit will still be good next year though they will have more holes with Hunter and Shertzer leaving.   The hole will be even bigger when Price leaves after next year. Also if Verlander continues to slide that can cause problems too especially after Price leaves.  They will have a few relievers come off the books next year so they may keep Price and they may decide to continue to increase spending too.  Eventually though they will relent for a rebuild and I imagine they will start collecting prospects again. 

 

The Tigers will eventually end up like the Phillies now.  The Phillies have now decided to start their rebuild and they do not have much to work with out the gates.  They will have to add a lot of money to these contracts to get some prospects.  And it will be a few years for them to draft and develop too. 

 

All teams have to rebuild regardless of being built the 'right way' or through spending obscene amounts of money.  Rich teams can rebuild faster though because they aren't handcuffed by waiting and hoping that Alex Meyer becomes an ace and instead go out and buy that FA.

[jokin]

Rich teams can rebuild faster though because they aren't handcuffed by

<stripping the team of it's only leigitmate ML OFers with only one AA player as an alternative...  AND THEN>

waiting and hoping that Alex Meyer becomes an ace,

<setting records for baseball suckage in the interim, in choosing to emulating the Astros, not the Cards, as a franchise role model>

and instead go out and buy that FA.

 

My inner subliminal-man take on your comment.

[biggentleben]

There are different methods to creating a successful franchise.  I rather like the Tigers one if you have an owner wiling to take on the financial losses associated with going all-in each season.  The biggest thing is that they don't see anyone as untradeable.  The Minnesota market, for all it's criticisms of him, would erupt in anger if the Twins traded away Mauer, likely regardless of the return.  The Tigers just traded away their Gold Glove quality center fielder who had been their leadoff hitter during their recent run in order to acquire another starter that only has 2015 left on his contract.  Jackson was a huge fan favorite in Detroit, but I rather enjoy that the front office is willing to upset the fanbase for an opportunity to win it all.

[kab21]

That Gold Glove CF'er also had one year left on his contract.  They traded him and a 3/4 starter for an ace that they might still extend.  I'm not sure the fanbase is going to be up in arms.  I also don't think they are truly losing money.  Forbes has them at roughly breakeven but that doesn't include the franchise value doubling in the last 5 years or 'other' baseball businesses that are profitable but don't fall under the official Tiger business.

 

My previous point above shouldn't be taken as Detroit's model is better or that they won't have to rebuild but rather that they aren't going to completely collapse and face a 5+ yr rebuild.  The VMart contract almost certainly isn't going to end well though.

 

One additional point is that the Cuddyer and VMart contracts are showing that teams don't think they will be able to spend the money they have this offseason.  Baseball revenues are exploding and it will be interesting to see if we are really in for a crazy offseason.