Shelby Miller v. Oswaldo Arcia

[Otto von Ballpark]

St. Louis has a pretty good reputation in scouting and evaluation.  If they were willing to accept Arcia as the headliner in return for Miller, one or both of the following statements would be true:

 

1) St. Louis is confident Arcia can be an acceptable OF (he'd have to be, in St. Louis), or at least that he will eventually hit enough to mask any defensive deficiencies

 

2) St. Louis is not confident in Miller

 

Their own reputation of success might make it hard for me to pull the trigger on a trade with them!  (Remember when TR had the trading rep, back in his heyday?)

 

Also, I'd worry that Miller -- a guy who has out-performed his FIP on a really solid St. Louis staff and surrounding team -- might not be a good bet to replicate those performances on the Twins, considering our overall recent record with pitchers and FIP.  (Similar to how I'd be skeptical of a hitter coming from Colorado, or a pitcher coming from Oakland like Milone.)

[iTwins]

How is trading folding? If you want something in return, you have to give something up. 

 

The premise of the post was the Cardinals and Twins could swap assets who haven't quite lived up to their potential - my point was I'm not ready to give up on Arcia hitting his potential yet. Thus: fold. If you don't like the word choice, replace it with "trade" / "move on from" - whatever the verbage, I'm not on board with moving Arcia (at least in this scenario).

 

You're correct, you have to give something to get something. I just don't think that something should be Arcia. I like his upside too much to trade him.

 

It's a good conversation point though - I do think the Twins should be looking at trades like this - my point was strictly this: as proposed, I'd pass.

[TheLeviathan]

Arcia's entering his 8th season of pro ball. He's seen a million fly balls. I think he is what he is. I'd be curious to hear examples of outfielders who improved noticeably with the glove as they aged into their mid-20s, because I can't think of any.

 

I was trying to think of any and I'm in the same boat.  I can think of infielders who cut down on their errors, but outfielders that went from awful to competent?  Complete blank.

[BrianTrottier]

Because seeing a baseball from 60 feet away and it coming in the same general area around the plate is not the same thing as picking up a baseball hit from 275 feet away with spin and wind effects working on it and knowing where to go with your first step.

 

Edited to add: And judging by Arcia's strike out rate and walk rate he's got a lot more to learn about the strike zone.

My point isn't that hitting and fielding are the same thing. That's why hitting .300 is considered elite. My point is that it seems to be a similar task for the human brain to recognize a pitch coming out of the pitcher's hand as it is to recognize a ball coming off of a bat. Not the same physical task, but a similar process that your brain goes through in order to react.

 

The human brain can be trained to distinguish balls from strikes. It can also be trained to read, to guide an artist's hand, and to drive a car. It's generally agreed upon that people can improve at all of these things through repetition, even if the person is not Stephen Hawking, Kandinski, or Jeff Gordon. So yes, you can train your brain to better recognize the trajectory of a ball that was hit by a baseball bat. Not everybody is innately gifted to routinely get a perfect jump. But Arcia is a major league outfielder, meaning that he is athletic enough to learn to take that correct first step, to take better routes, and to position himself better so that he doesn't need to get as good of a jump in the first place.

 

Also, pitches have spin and they break, so I'm not sure what you're getting at there. Whether or not the ball is moving toward "the same general zone as the plate" is extremely difficult to pick up on in practice, especially when moving 90+ mph. So shouldn't improving at the plate be astronomically harder than improving in the outfield? I would think so. 

 

I can't argue with you about Arcia's k rate. What I'm saying is that I think it's wrong to assume that Arcia (or below average outfielders in general) can't get better and become a serviceable glove out in right. I would rather the Twins look into a Vargas-Miller swap than Arcia-Miller.

[BrianTrottier]

I was trying to think of any and I'm in the same boat.  I can think of infielders who cut down on their errors, but outfielders that went from awful to competent?  Complete blank.

Alex Gordon.

 

Outfield UZR 2010 (in 511.1 innings): 1.1

Outfield UZR 2011 (in 1309 innings): 12.2

Outfield UZR 2012 (in 1424 innings): 14.6

Outfield UZR 2013 (in 1364 innings): 8.6

Outfield UZR 2014 (in 1372 innings): 25

 

Add: Arcia also improved in UZR from 2013 (UZR= -12.3) to 2014 (UZR= -4.5). Still not good, but it definitely contradicts the (old timey, non evidence-based) idea that outfielding is purely instinctual rather than a skill that can be learned. 

[TheLeviathan]

Alex Gordon.

 

Outfield UZR 2010 (in 511.1 innings): 1.1

Outfield UZR 2011 (in 1309 innings): 12.2

Outfield UZR 2012 (in 1424 innings): 14.6

Outfield UZR 2013 (in 1364 innings): 8.6

Outfield UZR 2014 (in 1372 innings): 25

 

Add: Arcia also improved in UZR from 2013 (UZR= -12.3) to 2014 (UZR= -4.5). Still not good, but it definitely contradicts the (old timey, non evidence-based) idea that outfielding is purely instinctual rather than a skill that can be learned. 

 

You're going to have to come up with a better example than a supremely athletic, life-long infielder learning to pay outfield because it sort of makes my argument.  Gordon was always an athlete with a lot of ability, he just had to adjust to a new position.  I never said you can't teach an athlete to play outfield.  I said you can't take a guy with bad instincts, bad range, and bad athleticism to be rangy, instinctual, and a better athlete.  Since playing the outfield is so dependent upon athleticism (moreso than the infield) it sort of makes being able to do those things a necessity.  Gordon could do those regardless of his position, Arcia can't.

 

So to be specific to what you're saying is possible with Arcia, I need an example of a bad athlete becoming a good outfielder, not a good athlete bouncing positions.  They aren't the same thing.

[jorgenswest]

There is reason to believe Arcia will improve. He will even look better when Buxton is patrolling the OF.

[stringer bell]

How about Tony-O? He came to Minnesota in his early 20s and was extremely raw in the OF. Tony worked hard at playing right field and in a couple of years became a fine outfielder (I think he won a Gold Glove). Soon after, he suffered the career-changing knee injury and became only a hitter, with no speed.

[Willihammer]

How about Tony-O? He came to Minnesota in his early 20s and was extremely raw in the OF. Tony worked hard at playing right field and in a couple of years became a fine outfielder (I think he won a Gold Glove). Soon after, he suffered the career-changing knee injury and became only a hitter, with no speed.

Interesting, I didn't know that about Oliva. But, that was 50 years ago...

 

Any outfielders from the post-strike era?

[TheLeviathan]

How about Tony-O? He came to Minnesota in his early 20s and was extremely raw in the OF. Tony worked hard at playing right field and in a couple of years became a fine outfielder (I think he won a Gold Glove). Soon after, he suffered the career-changing knee injury and became only a hitter, with no speed.

 

I would suggest if we have to go back to Olivia for an example that it's sort of the exception proving the rule.

 

I am 100% on board with jorgen's point about getting a rangy CF next to Arcia to cut down on the need to exploit his weaknesses, but that isn't Arcia getting any better, just more marginalized as a liability.

[BrianTrottier]

You're going to have to come up with a better example than a supremely athletic, life-long infielder learning to pay outfield because it sort of makes my argument.  Gordon was always an athlete with a lot of ability, he just had to adjust to a new position.  I never said you can't teach an athlete to play outfield.  I said you can't take a guy with bad instincts, bad range, and bad athleticism to be rangy, instinctual, and a better athlete.  Since playing the outfield is so dependent upon athleticism (moreso than the infield) it sort of makes being able to do those things a necessity.  Gordon could do those regardless of his position, Arcia can't.

 

So to be specific to what you're saying is possible with Arcia, I need an example of a bad athlete becoming a good outfielder, not a good athlete bouncing positions.  They aren't the same thing.

Fair enough. But Arcia has shown improvement, and I don't buy that he's a "bad" athlete. By major league standards he's certainly not the best, but he is a major league outfielder. If he shows the same level of improvement in 2015 as he did in 2014, then according to UZR he's saving the Twins runs. So I guess what I'm saying is that not being able to name an "unathletic" outfielder who showed "significant" improvement isn't evidence that it doesn't or can't happen. All that means is that you can't think of one.

 

Arcia is a butcher in right and he has shown improvement. He's never gonna be a Buxton or a Hicks out there, but he can be servicable. Hopefully he continues his demonstrated improvement. 

[TheLeviathan]

Fair enough. But Arcia has shown improvement, and I don't buy that he's a "bad" athlete. By major league standards he's certainly not the best, but he is a major league outfielder. If he shows the same level of improvement in 2015 as he did in 2014, then according to UZR he's saving the Twins runs. So I guess what I'm saying is that not being able to name an "unathletic" outfielder who showed "significant" improvement isn't evidence that it doesn't or can't happen. All that means is that you can't think of one.

 

Arcia is a butcher in right and he has shown improvement. He's never gonna be a Buxton or a Hicks out there, but he can be servicable. Hopefully he continues his demonstrated improvement. 

 

From what I can see, no one can think of a slow-footed outfielder who transformed himself.  I just think it's the nature of being an outfielder - you either have the skillset to be good or you don't.  You might improve on some angles and play next to someone that can mask your deficiencies, but you're still not good.  

 

Hicks is a guy who is a bad fielder who might be able to learn to be a good one (might is the key word, he has athleticism but awful instincts), but Arcia is what he is.  I wouldn't hold my breath on his defensive improvement.

[Otto von Ballpark]

How about Tony-O? He came to Minnesota in his early 20s and was extremely raw in the OF. Tony worked hard at playing right field and in a couple of years became a fine outfielder (I think he won a Gold Glove). Soon after, he suffered the career-changing knee injury and became only a hitter, with no speed.

By B-Ref's best estimates, Oliva was an above-average outfielder from day 1 in MLB.

[BrianTrottier]

From what I can see, no one can think of a slow-footed outfielder who transformed himself.  I just think it's the nature of being an outfielder - you either have the skillset to be good or you don't.  You might improve on some angles and play next to someone that can mask your deficiencies, but you're still not good.  

 

Hicks is a guy who is a bad fielder who might be able to learn to be a good one (might is the key word, he has athleticism but awful instincts), but Arcia is what he is.  I wouldn't hold my breath on his defensive improvement.

I guess I'll stop with this comment since it's mostly off-topic and we're just not going to agree. I still don't see how athleticism is more important for outfielders than infielders, since the latter also rely on fast-twitch muscle movements, reflexes, hand-eye coordination, agility, etc.--the stuff that makes athletes athletic. The only real difference between the two that I can see is that outfielders might be required to have better acceleration and open field speed, especially when compared to corner infielders. But this does not mean that an outfielder's ability is immutable and incapable of improvement.

 

But I do really like the point about other players on the field being able to mask a given player's deficiencies. Arcia will never be a gold glover and maybe never even above average. But I think he can develop into an outfielder who least pulls his weight. If he keeps along his current defensive trajectory (which in fairness is only made up of two years), he'll be a serviceable MLB outfielder who can actually add value defensively, especially once Buxton comes along to man CF.

[TheLeviathan]

I guess I'll stop with this comment since it's mostly off-topic and we're just not going to agree. I still don't see how athleticism is more important for outfielders than infielders, since the latter also rely on fast-twitch muscle movements, reflexes, hand-eye coordination, agility, etc.--the stuff that makes athletes athletic. The only real difference between the two that I can see is that outfielders might be required to have better acceleration and open field speed, especially when compared to corner infielders. But this does not mean that an outfielder's ability is immutable and incapable of improvement.

 

I guess I should have clarified - infielders don't have to run very far.  They have to move laterally quickly, but outfielders have to actually run sometimes for much farther distances.  They have to move through significantly more space to make plays routinely than an infielder does.  Someone who runs like he's caught in quicksand is a guy that just can't be a very good outfielder.  See: Willingham, Arcia, the husk of Torii Hunter, Duda, etc.

 

Statue infielders aren't very good either, but being slow is far more apparent playing the outfield.  When you couple that with bad instincts (you could seriously put a 3-5 minute clip together of Arcia's routes and awkward catches and put it to Benny Hill music) and you have a bad defender.  I can never recall anyone with that athletic skillset being trained to be a better fielder.  Never.  And the reason for that seems rather common sense to me - "you can't teach speed".  In other words - you can't make a non-athlete an athlete.  

 

You can, however, minimize his impact.  Which is why I've heavily campaigned for the Twins to bring in Bourjos or some other CF with elite range.

[Otto von Ballpark]

But this does not mean that an outfielder's ability is immutable and incapable of improvement.

I agree, but I think there is ample evidence that an outfielder's potential range of improvement is much less than an infielder's.

[kab21]

A Vargas for Miller swap is impossible from the Cards end.  They need someone that can at least play in the OF regardless of Arcia's defense.  I'm absolutely certain that neither Vargas nor Matt Adams can play in the OF.

 

I don't think anyone is saying that they don't like Arcia long term.  the key here is that Miller is very talented and you want something you have to give something.  I don't look at this deal from a perspective of needing to trade Arcia because of defense but rather finding a way to get Miller.

 

I don't think the Cards will make the trade.  I just don't see them going after a Latin American OF prospect to replace a Latin American OF prospect that just died.  Not because of any concerns but just the weirdness of replacing Taveras with someone quite similar.
 

[Bark's Lounge]

I don't think the Cards will make the trade.  I just don't see them going after a Latin American OF prospect to replace a Latin American OF prospect that just died.  Not because of any concerns but just the weirdness of replacing Taveras with someone quite similar.

 

I don't think this would factor into the Cardinals mindset at all. The Cardinals are going to get the best player they can get to play RF. They will not avoid getting a latin american player to fill their RF void because Taveras died.

 

I am sure that there are stark differences between the Dominican Republic and Venezuela. Ethnically, culturally, etc., etc... I bet the way each country speaks spanish is a little bit different, just like English is between the US, Canada, Great Britain, Australia and whatnot.

 

I guarantee the Cards will honor Taveras next year with a ceremony or something like that, but finding an everyday Rightfielder will have nothing to do with a player's race, citizenship or cultural background.

[Thrylos]

Shelby Miller's FIP and xFIP last season was higher than Mike Pelfrey's in 2013, and had identical K/BB ratios.

 

No.Thank.You.

[Physics Guy]

Shelby Miller's FIP and xFIP last season was higher than Mike Pelfrey's in 2013, and had identical K/BB ratios.

 

No.Thank.You.

Let's get a fuller picture:

 

2014 - Age 23

3.74 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 4.47 xFIP, 1.74 K/BB

 

2013 - Age 22

3.06 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 2.96 K/BB

3rd in ROY voting

 

Yes. Hell. Yes.

[h2oface]

I can't look at Arcia as a low average hitter.  He has hit well, (and for average, too) at every level except the show so far.  With the right handling, some team will have an all star.  I said it about Gomez and I say it about Arcia.  I wagered that Gomez could only become what he has if he got away from the Gardenhire/Twins Way.  I hope with Molitor at the helm, Arcia will do it with the Twins.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Cards just traded Shelby Miler for Jason Heyward.  Interesting move, presumably with an eye on locking up Heyward beyond next year.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

So... The Braves need a RF - how about Arcia for Shelby Miller?

[biggentleben]

So... The Braves need a RF - how about Arcia for Shelby Miller?

 

They do?  I think the Braves would be surprised to learn they need a RF

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

They do?  I think the Braves would be surprised to learn they need a RF

 = a joke... Wasn't a serious suggestion.

[ashbury]

 = a joke... Wasn't a serious suggestion.

Not every post with a smiley face is a joke.