Article: Twins Trade Targets

[Physics Guy]

Lot of Bourjos talk above your post too.

There was a comment on SD Buhr thread about Sano and Buxton that might be appropriate to throw in here.  Might Buxton already be able to give you Bourjos production?  I would contend that we wait a month or two to give Buxton a few AA at-bats and go with Hicks/Schaefer in the meantime. 

[TheLeviathan]

There was a comment on SD Buhr thread about Sano and Buxton that might be appropriate to throw in here.  Might Buxton already be able to give you Bourjos production?  I would contend that we wait a month or two to give Buxton a few AA at-bats and go with Hicks/Schaefer in the meantime. 

 

If Buxton is in the big leagues - it better be with the expectation that he's ready, not based on what his production will be.

[tobi0040]

Any chance the Twins would consider trying to trade Oswaldo Arcia to the Mariners for Iwakuma the starting pitcher? Twins had interest in Iwakuma when he was an international free agent.

He was one of the more impressive pitchers I saw the Twins face this season.

Mariners seem to have an opening in Right Field and are in need of a power bat.

Iwakuma would give the Twins three solid starters in the rotation Hughes, Gibson and Iwakuma.

Anything they would get from Nolasco would be gravey then.

Iwakuma is an innings horse.

 

I think there is a very good chance the Twins would make that trade.  The M's, um....no.

[SwainZag]

Any chance the Twins would consider trying to trade Oswaldo Arcia to the Mariners for Iwakuma the starting pitcher? Twins had interest in Iwakuma when he was an international free agent.

He was one of the more impressive pitchers I saw the Twins face this season.

Mariners seem to have an opening in Right Field and are in need of a power bat.

Iwakuma would give the Twins three solid starters in the rotation Hughes, Gibson and Iwakuma.

Anything they would get from Nolasco would be gravey then.

Iwakuma is an innings horse.

 

Iwakuma is interesting.  Very good season last year.  He will be 34 on opening day and has a $7M option for 2015.  While he would be a very nice in our rotation, do you believe he would be anything more than a 1 year rental?  If the M's did execute his option and trade him, would the Twins be willing to give a guy who will be 35 opening day 2016 a 3-4 year deal?  

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

So, Josh Beckett is retiring, creating an opening in the Dodger rotation - LA is expected to go after Scherzer. but if another team sign Max, maybe good 'ol Ricky Nolasco is more appealing to LAD after all.... 

 

Or not.

 

That Kemp or Ethier or Crawford for Ricky (and friends) is a little more likely, but still pretty unlikely.

 

Also, the NL West is going to have several new GMs this offseason (AZ, COL, SD all have new hires), now's the time for Terry Ryan to loot those minor league systems and/or make a run at some more major league pitching!

[USAFChief]

So, Josh Beckett is retiring, creating an opening in the Dodger rotation - LA is expected to go after Scherzer. but if another team sign Max, maybe good 'ol Ricky Nolasco is more appealing to LAD after all.... 

 

Or not.

 

That Kemp or Ethier or Crawford for Ricky (and friends) is a little more likely, but still pretty unlikely.

 

Also, the NL West is going to have several new GMs this offseason (AZ, COL, SD all have new hires), now's the time for Terry Ryan to loot those minor league systems and/or make a run at some more major league pitching!

Perhaps even in LaLaLand there are salary concerns...if they want to pursue Scherzer, having most of Kemps salary off the books might be attractive.

 

I like the idea of Kemp, but only if its costs little except money.

[SwainZag]

Perhaps even in LaLaLand there are salary concerns...if they want to pursue Scherzer, having most of Kemps salary off the books might be attractive.

 

I like the idea of Kemp, but only if its costs little except money.

 

I really don't see in any universe the Twins taking on that contract.  $105M over 5 years is still just insane.

[USAFChief]

I really don't see in any universe the Twins taking on that contract. $105M over 5 years is still just insane.

Mauer, .860 career OPS (133 OPS+)

 

Kemp, .845 career OPS (128 (OPS+)

 

1.5 yrs younger than Mauer, without the injury history.

 

Kemp is overpaid, but not by an "insane" amount, at least not by MLB standards. There's a very reasonable chance he ages well and is an above average big league left fielder through the end of that contract. I wouldn't give up much for him, but at the cost of only money, he fills a need for half a decade. I think we all agree the Twins can spend more.

 

What's the goal here...win actual MLB games, or win the mythical "most wins per dollar spent" baseball prospectus championship?

 

I will agree with you on one thing though...the Twins won't even consider a move like that. I guess my argument is, I'd like to see the Twins change the universe they operate in.

[drjim]

The Dodgers aren't doing a Kemp salary dump. He's too good.

 

Best Twins can hope for is bad contract (Nolasco) for bad contract (Either or Crawford). I'd rather roll with Nolasco.

[USAFChief]

The Dodgers aren't doing a Kemp salary dump. He's too good..

Quite possibly true.

 

But it would be worth asking, IMO.

[drjim]

Quite possibly true.

 

But it would be worth asking, IMO.

 

Probably worth asking on everyone.

[SwainZag]

Mauer, .860 career OPS (133 OPS+)

 

Kemp, .845 career OPS (128 (OPS+)

 

1.5 yrs younger than Mauer, without the injury history.

 

Kemp is overpaid, but not by an "insane" amount, at least not by MLB standards. There's a very reasonable chance he ages well and is an above average big league left fielder through the end of that contract. I wouldn't give up much for him, but at the cost of only money, he fills a need for half a decade. I think we all agree the Twins can spend more.

 

What's the goal here...win actual MLB games, or win the mythical "most wins per dollar spent" baseball prospectus championship?

 

I will agree with you on one thing though...the Twins won't even consider a move like that. I guess my argument is, I'd like to see the Twins change the universe they operate in.

 

Well when I said that it was implying that Mauer is still on the roster.  At this point with this Twins team, I still see there's no way they take on that contract.  A pipedream? Sure.  I'd love to see Kemp on the Twins, he fills a need for sure.  I just can't fathom this organization ever making that kind of move.

[tobi0040]

Quite possibly true.

 

But it would be worth asking, IMO.

 

I think the Dodgers would be willing to dump his salary if it meant they could then sign Max Scherzer.  I actually was getting on board with the Kemp thing (supporting it, not thinking it would happen). 

 

But as I typed that first sentence I asked myself who I would rather have, Kemp or Scherzer.  We need the pitcher.  Kemp has 5/100 left. Max will cost a bit more but if we are rolling the dice......give me the stud pitcher.

[chopper0080]

Kemp is a half measure.  Use the assets we have in our farm system and on our roster to get Stanton.  Get a young superstar, pay him, and let him lead this team going forward.  A 6 year extension only pays him until he is 32.  The Twins aren't this progressive of thinkers, but it is the movbe to make if you are looking to acquire a young outfielder whose power plays in Target Field.

Edited October 8, 2014 by chopper0080

[drjim]

Kemp is a half measure.  Use the assets we have in our farm system and on our roster to get Stanton.  Get a young superstar, pay him, and let him lead this team going forward.  A 6 year extension only pays him until he is 32.  The Twins aren't this progressive of thinkers, but it is the movbe to make if you are looking to acquire a young outfielder whose power plays in Target Field.

 

The problem is Stanton would have to agree to a 6 year deal and he wouldn't, progressive thinkers or not. Not to mention the prospects.

[USAFChief]

I think the Dodgers would be willing to dump his salary if it meant they could then sign Max Scherzer.  I actually was getting on board with the Kemp thing (supporting it, not thinking it would happen). 

 

But as I typed that first sentence I asked myself who I would rather have, Kemp or Scherzer.  We need the pitcher.  Kemp has 5/100 left. Max will cost a bit more but if we are rolling the dice......give me the stud pitcher.

My guess is Scherzer costs at least 1.5 times that.

[Physics Guy]

My guess is Scherzer costs at least 1.5 times that.

1.5 x 100 total or 1.5x 20M/yr?  I can see the $150, not the $30M.

[chopper0080]

The problem is Stanton would have to agree to a 6 year deal and he wouldn't, progressive thinkers or not. Not to mention the prospects.

 

Do you really believe Stanton would turn down money that would make him the highest paid player in baseball?

 

Trade Arcia, Meyer, Sano, and another mid range prospect.  Our farm system is still stocked.  We are better defensively in the outfield.  We still have a legitimate power threat.

 

I'm not saying this is likely, but I am saying if I am looking to trade prospects for a MLB player, I am looking for a whale not a minnow.

 

In all fairness, make this trade, sign Alex Rios, Emilio Bonafacio, and a 11 mil SP.  Maybe some bullpen pieces.  You can make the playoffs with that roster, and you aren't dependant on Buxton, Berrios, and others to carry your team.

[drjim]

Do you really believe Stanton would turn down money that would make him the highest paid player in baseball?

 

Trade Arcia, Meyer, Sano, and another mid range prospect.  Our farm system is still stocked.  We are better defensively in the outfield.  We still have a legitimate power threat.

 

I'm not saying this is likely, but I am saying if I am looking to trade prospects for a MLB player, I am looking for a whale not a minnow.

 

In all fairness, make this trade, sign Alex Rios, Emilio Bonafacio, and a 11 mil SP.  Maybe some bullpen pieces.  You can make the playoffs with that roster, and you aren't dependant on Buxton, Berrios, and others to carry your team.

 

I would do that trade if I had assurances that he would sign an extension. A 6 year deal would not make him the highest paid player and no he would not do that, no reason for him to do so, he is 2 years from free agency.

[KGB]

The Twins are not just one players away from contending.  No reason to trade a bunch of top prospects for an all star player at this point.  They need to bring up some players and see what they have, Sano maybe just a young Stanton. 

 

With Stanton, we'll be no better than Miami is with Stanton.  Probably worst, since Miami has better young pitching.

[chopper0080]

The Twins are not just one players away from contending.  No reason to trade a bunch of top prospects for an all star player at this point.  They need to bring up some players and see what they have, Sano maybe just a young Stanton. 

 

With Stanton, we'll be no better than Miami is with Stanton.  Probably worst, since Miami has better young pitching.

 

There are so many flaws in this statement.  It is never the wrong time to add premier MLB talent.  It is always a good idea to trade potential for actual production.  When it comes to pay the bills, take the cash, not the lottery tickets.

[DocBauer]

There are so many flaws in this statement.  It is never the wrong time to add premier MLB talent.  It is always a good idea to trade potential for actual production.  When it comes to pay the bills, take the cash, not the lottery tickets.

I don't disagree with the basis of this statement. But as stated, it's never wrong to add premier talent. But what if some of those tradeable pieces are premier talent, or will be in the next year or two for a rebuilding team?

 

I don't think the argument is "don't trade for talent", but rather, time it right. One player, even an elite one, won't completely change the fortunes of a team. But wait until the roster is more set, and there are prospects knocking on the door, THEN you have the depth and timing to make that big trade to push the team over the top.

 

As I've stated previously, barring an "unlucky" 2015 where the roster and top prospects are ravaged by injury, (somewhat similar to 2014), think how much stronger the Twins depth of talent will be at or near the ML level. At some point in 2015, or by the end of the season, players such as Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Polanco, May, Meyer and Berrios should be up or ready. And there are other solid possibles I'm not listing. And there's a real possibility of a huge influx of quality, hard throwing RP ready or near as well. I'm not saying give up on 2015. But there are finances available to improve the team. Hold on to your bargaining chips until the odds are more in your favor.

[zchrz]

Get Gio!  Plouffe + a minors arm (Duffey? Eades?) maybe gets it done.

[Physics Guy]

Get Gio!  Plouffe + a minors arm (Duffey? Eades?) maybe gets it done.

I also would like them to get Gio, but they really don't need a 3B.  Rendon will be playing 3B for them for awhile.  2B is their biggest weakness.  Gio has been one of the targets I like, but I'm not sure how we come up with a package they would go for without trading Dozier.  I'm not sure Escobar and prospects is enough.

[tobi0040]

Get Gio!  Plouffe + a minors arm (Duffey? Eades?) maybe gets it done.

I think you are drastically overstating the value of duffey and eades

[zchrz]

I also would like them to get Gio, but they really don't need a 3B.  Rendon will be playing 3B for them for awhile.  2B is their biggest weakness.  Gio has been one of the targets I like, but I'm not sure how we come up with a package they would go for without trading Dozier.  I'm not sure Escobar and prospects is enough.

 

Ah I was under the impression they viewed Rendon as 2nd base of the future.

 

I think you are drastically overstating the value of duffey and eades

 

Ya probably, how high does it have to go?  Stewart/ Berrios are probably off the table, Thorpe?

[Physics Guy]

Ah I was under the impression they viewed Rendon as 2nd base of the future.

 

 

Ya probably, how high does it have to go?  Stewart/ Berrios are probably off the table, Thorpe?

They moved him to 2B because Danny Espinosa has become a brutal hitter and Zimmerman was blocking him at 3B.  I think they now realize that Zimmerman can't handle 3B physically.  My guess is they let LaRoche go and put Zimmerman at 1B.

[USAFChief]

I don't disagree with the basis of this statement. But as stated, it's never wrong to add premier talent. But what if some of those tradeable pieces are premier talent, or will be in the next year or two for a rebuilding team?

I don't think the argument is "don't trade for talent", but rather, time it right. One player, even an elite one, won't completely change the fortunes of a team. But wait until the roster is more set, and there are prospects knocking on the door, THEN you have the depth and timing to make that big trade to push the team over the top.

As I've stated previously, barring an "unlucky" 2015 where the roster and top prospects are ravaged by injury, (somewhat similar to 2014), think how much stronger the Twins depth of talent will be at or near the ML level. At some point in 2015, or by the end of the season, players such as Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Polanco, May, Meyer and Berrios should be up or ready. And there are other solid possibles I'm not listing. And there's a real possibility of a huge influx of quality, hard throwing RP ready or near as well. I'm not saying give up on 2015. But there are finances available to improve the team. Hold on to your bargaining chips until the odds are more in your favor.

I don't know how to say this without sounding confrontational, so I'll just say it...

 

I think if you substituted "2013" for every "2014'" and "2015" for every "2014," your post could have been written last October, and probably was, just not by you.

 

"Wait until 2014, when Meyer/Mays/Buxton/Sano/Rosario/pickyournamehere are up and producing...then go get what you need."

 

I'd rather the team goes and gets some of what they need, and hope the minor leagues can supply even more, rather than the other way around. To me that's the less risky strategy. YMMV of course.

[Physics Guy]

Back to trading for Gio.  Assuming they would want a 2B for Gio, what do people think about trading Dozier for him?  I'd hate to trade him, but with Escobar as a stopgap and Polanco not to far off it might be palatable.  I'd rather see a package built around Escobar, but not sure that would interest the Nats.  How about Escobar, Kepler and Thorpe for Gio.

[zchrz]

Back to trading for Gio.  Assuming they would want a 2B for Gio, what do people think about trading Dozier for him?  I'd hate to trade him, but with Escobar as a stopgap and Polanco not to far off it might be palatable.  I'd rather see a package built around Escobar, but not sure that would interest the Nats.  How about Escobar, Kepler and Thorpe for Gio.

 

Probably would have to be Dozier. I doubt they want future potential much as the window on Strasburg may be closing for them.  I would lean towards trading Dozier for Gio straight up but I seriously doubt TR is going to trade the clubhouse leader guy after replacing the manager.