Sickels on Santana: A Sleeper Who Woke Up

[Seth Stohs]

John Sickels of Minor League Ball wrote an article on Danny Santana today. He looked back at his prospect status over the last few years and did some fun analysis. Worth the read. 

[nytwinsfan]

Seth, or Parker, I know Santana's sample size for games played at shortstop this year was small, but what do the defensive metrics suggest about him being a long-term option there? Is he (or will he likely be) an average defensive shortstop?

[ericchri]

To add to the Santana love:  WIll Leitch at Sports On Earth named Danny Santana the MVP of the Twins in his article picking each team's MVP.

 

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/96172120/mlb-2014-team-mvp

 

 

It's been mentioned before, but the thing I noticed one night when he hit a homerun, which is probably par for the course and not particularly insightful, is that he just effortlessly whips his bat through the zone incredibly fast (-appearing).  I've not the time/patience/motivation and whatnot to go analyze a bunch of video and situational hitting statistics, but it definitely caught my eye.  You can see Arcia swinging out of his shoes, but Santana just calmly lashes the ball sharply, and occasionally it leaves the park.  Not claiming he'll ever be a homerun hitter per se, but I can easily see him being in the low double-digits a few times in his career, which is decent for someone his size.

[Seth Stohs]

Seth, or Parker, I know Santana's sample size for games played at shortstop this year was small, but what do the defensive metrics suggest about him being a long-term option there? Is he (or will he likely be) an average defensive shortstop?

 

I'll let Parker and others discuss the defensive metrics.

 

I've seen him play in the lower levels, and talked to a lot of people who have seen him work his way up the system. 

 

There is no questioning his skill set. He has very good speed and range, and he has a rocket for an arm. He can make some spectacular plays. He also commits a ton of errors. Of course, how many of those errors came on balls other SS wouldn't even get to? Hard to know. How many errors would have been saved by having someone like Joe Mauer at 1B? Can't know for sure.

 

He's 23, so I don't know that he'll get better. I've talked to several who would be scared to think about him being the every day SS, but it would be good to let him try.

[nytwinsfan]

Thanks a lot. I definitely agree it is worth letting him try. This could be wrong, but it seems intuitively like cutting down on errors is something that it is more likely for a player to get better at as they get into their mid-20s (as Plouffe seems to have done), whereas speed, range, and arm strength, probably not as much. So that might be reason for optimism with Santana. If his arm is indeed really strong, what about having him also play some third base at the beginning of next year if Plouffe (1) is still recovering from the broken arm, OR (2) is traded because Terry Ryan gets a great offer this winter (assuming Sano would not be available till mid-season at the earliest). Or would it just make more sense in either of those scenarios to have Escobar play third so Santana can work on his play at short?

[iTwins]

Bonus points to Sickels for throwing a "call" out there in 2014 for Santana (Something tells me he "could exceed expectations") That's a pretty good hunch that turned out to be true for this season.

 

Santana's skills are easy to see, and I love his bat speed and effortless swing. I don't think he's a .300 hitter (his BABIP is in the stratosphere at the moment) but I don't see him tanking into a non-entity like some have been predicting.

 

It still bothers me how little the Twins played Santana at short down the stretch. This last month should have been the time to see if he had the chops to play short full time. Instead, we're still left with a major question surrounding his game heading into 2015.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Agreed that he should have played SS this September, though in fairness, I don't think one month would have answered that question.

[DocBauer]

OK now, don't everyone all jump on me at once with your rebuttals of being overly optimistic, drinking Twins-flavored Kool-Aid, (whatever that would taste like, I'd hope a nice lager), or just being out of my proposed medication...but you know who Santana reminds me of? He reminds me of Puckett.

 

Now, the reason I say this, and I'm sure Parker could offer an accurate analysis or call the men in straight jackets for me, is that Santana doesn't seem to have a hole in his swing. His bat is very quick. He shows a real knack for fighting off pitches. And he seems to just hit line drive after line drive with no fear or intimidation at the plate. I know his BABIP seems unusually high, probably too high. And thus far, his walks are lower than preferred of course. But he just keeps working the pitcher and hitting line drives. Am I completely nuts here?

[drjim]

OK now, don't everyone all jump on me at once with your rebuttals of being overly optimistic, drinking Twins-flavored Kool-Aid, (whatever that would taste like, I'd hope a nice lager), or just being out of my proposed medication...but you know who Santana reminds me of? He reminds me of Puckett.

 

Now, the reason I say this, and I'm sure Parker could offer an accurate analysis or call the men in straight jackets for me, is that Santana doesn't seem to have a hole in his swing. His bat is very quick. He shows a real knack for fighting off pitches. And he seems to just hit line drive after line drive with no fear or intimidation at the plate. I know his BABIP seems unusually high, probably too high. And thus far, his walks are lower than preferred of course. But he just keeps working the pitcher and hitting line drives. Am I completely nuts here?

 

I would never compare a rookie to a hall of famer but I think you are on to something. He has a strong hit tool and that will generally play up, especially someone with his athleticisim.

 

His K rate is certainly high but not absurd. He obviously needs to bump the BB rate a little as well, but he does has a base of skills to work from. What is most encouraging to me is that he hasn't dropped off as he has gotten around the league, in fact he has had very strong months in August and September.

[DuluthFan]

According to the article, Santana was projected as a utility player and not as a shortstop. The article mentions Santana's skills as fitting a shortstop but he didn't say he was projected as one. He had trouble making the routine plays. Second base was hinted at although utility player was mentioned several times as well as center field. It appears he has found his position in center field. Besides the Twins already have a starting shortstop and do not have a center fielder other than Santana. Hicks appears to be 4th outfielder material.

[Physics Guy]

According to the article, Santana was projected as a utility player and not as a shortstop. The article mentions Santana's skills as fitting a shortstop but he didn't say he was projected as one. He had trouble making the routine plays. Second base was hinted at although utility player was mentioned several times as well as center field. It appears he has found his position in center field. Besides the Twins already have a starting shortstop and do not have a center fielder other than Santana. Hicks appears to be 4th outfielder material.

He has found a position in CF merely because Hicks couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag to start the season and the Twins didn't have much choice.  He is rough out there and wouldn't be a CF for more than another year (Buxton).  Defensive metrics are not terribly kind to Santana in CF.  He has the hands, range and arm to be a strong SS.  He reminds me a little of Florimon when he first started with the Twins.  Florimon could make great plays, but needed to find consistency.  I think Santana will do the same if give the opportunity.  While his current .830-ish OPS probably isn't sustainable, a .750 OPS at SS would give the Twins a large positional advantage (league avg is .678).

[glunn]

This is a great thread, and I appreciate the fact that people are disagreeing while having an informed, respectful discussion.  

[Steven Buhr]

I've never been a huge Santana fan as he's come up through the minors, simply because he hasn't played an excellent SS historically.

 

I simply don't believe SS is a position that you fill at the MLB level with someone whose bat you want to get in your line up. Defense at that position is just too critical to mess around with. A guy who has attention issues and fails to make ALL of the routine plays or has problems making strong accurate throws just ends up giving opponents too many 4-out innings.

 

I understand the desire on fans' parts to see more of Santana at SS. He clearly should have been playing SS more the last couple months. But the Twins organization has seen him play SS for several years. It's not like they don't have any idea what to expect if he's not out there every day at this point. They already have a pretty good idea what he can and will do at the position, even if fans don't.

 

I like his bat, too. I hope what he's doing is sustainable (though I have doubts). If it is, the Twins clearly need to find a place to play him. I'd just be fine if it's not SS, except on an occasional basis.

[Mike Sixel]

Twins thought Hicks could play at the MLB level.......until you see people in the majors, you haven't really seen them in the majors. 

 

He should have been playing SS this year, but for some reason, worrying about being good next year, in a completely lost season this year, was not a good idea for this team.

[sactfan]

Great point Mike. The Twins also thought that Plouffe, Nishioka, Cassilla and Dozier could be MLB starting shortstops and that JJ Hardy wasn't good enough so based on there track record I am not sure they are very good at gauging this.  The Twins just need to give Santana a chance to play SS and we will see if he can play the position at the MLB level or not.

[Mike Sixel]

Ouch, that is a scary list of bad decisions.....