Trade rumors

[Brandon]

Like centerfielders of the past, the Twins could swing trades for Santana and Escobar and hope Polanco is ready, right? Plouffe might actually have some worth. Dozier would be an interesting dangle. He's all over the place. You know, if someone offered the right return for Mauer, I would part ways. Think of where that salary could be distributed. But do the Twins REALLY have anyone anyone would want. Perk maybe. Hughes for sure (right now, you could trade high for him). If Pinto had actually caught this apst year, you could dangle him for a Matt Capps. Arcia would be an interesting chip. But no one will take a chance on Hicks.

 

Instead of Capps I think the reliever you are referring to is Papelbon and his team friendly contract....

[Physics Guy]

I've been thinking of some possibilities for teams like Cincy who might be looking to unload salary.  I'm not sure any of Cincy's options are great for us.  I wouldn't want to give up what we would need to in order to get Cueto or Latos for most likely one season and a draft pick (by giving a qualifying offer).  If the Twins decide to go the trade route for a SP, how about Gio Gonzalez?  He would be our ace, but the Nats may not even have him start in the playoffs (Strasburg, Zimmerman, Roark and Fister).  He is owed $35M for the next 3 years, well within the Twins' parameters.  What would you be willing to give up?  The Nats are not going to want Arcia with Werth and Harper already.  Gibson/May and Escobar? 

[Physics Guy]

Hamels was another I thought of, but his 5 years and $110M might be too rich for the Twins.

[DocBauer]

Trading for a real ACE caliber pitcher is probably reaching for the stars. Assuming someone of ACE, or at least #1 SP quality were actually available, and there is a difference, you'd be looking at something like a 3-4 for 1 maybe 1+ trade scenario. Even if Sano and Buxton were off the table, you're still talking another 2-3 top 20 prospect players in the system. Yes, you might move a Dozier or Plouffe in place of one of those top prospects, but I think you're trading too big, too much, at least one season too early.

 

Barring another run of "bad luck" that seriously attacks our top prospects, just think of the ML and milb talent in the system next year as we approach the offseason. We are talking a list of players either on the Twins, spending time with the Twins, or sitting right on the cusp, probably at AAA, which would include, (some are relatively young MLer's): Pinto, Vargas, Dozier, Escobar, Santana, Polanco, Plouffe, Sano, Arcia, Hicks, Buxton, Rosario, May, Meyer, Berrios, Gilmartin, Lee, Darnell, Burdi, Zack Jones, Jake Reed, Dallas Gallant, Melotakis. And I apologize if I missed anyone. And we could see another fast riser or two from Ft Meyers who could be added to this list.

 

Again, I think a big trade for that proposed #1...or even another young big bat...should be a year away. You deal from strength to fill weakness. And how much stronger does the Twins and it's system look a year from now? Answer: much more.

 

Now, I think if you're smart, you put out some feelers of course. And if someone, say AZ or Cincy as mentioned examples, have a high quality SP in the 24-27 y.o. range who equates to at least "Hughes" ability and potential and they would make the move for a package that included possibles such as Pinto, Plouffe, Escobar, Santana, and maybe a quality pitching prospect, I think you at least look, listen and consider. I might consider Dozier, but not sold on that idea. Point is, with the list I just gave, you'd still have Suzuki at C, an Escobar or Santana to slide in to an infield spot, without killing yourself. And a top prospect or two getting really close at some point in 2015.

 

But again, I'd rather hold off one more year unless a steal comes our way.

[70charger]

Pinto is a solid hitting prospect and Escobar is a solid SS.  that right there is a solid package for 1 year of Mike Leake.  Adding a reliever or minor league pitcher with potential and or Hicks who still has potential makes it a realistic package.  Walker isn't that great of a prospect at this point either so we could include him as an either or. 

 

I think he's kidding.

 

Duensing is our customary major league throw-in; Walker our minor-leaguer. Frankly, I think we just trade both of them in one deal, because then we could probably get Mike Trout.

[freshinthehouse]

You'd be ok with pushing back the rebuild for at least another year or two? That should have been the question I asked. If they give up MLB talent for guys 2-3 years away (and replace them with minor league guys probably not as good as them), people would be cool with that, or frustrated?

 

As long as it's a positive move, I'd be good with it.  If a team keeps making good trades, winning baseball should eventually come to fruition.

[drjim]

What are the Chances the Twins could interest the Blue Jays in a trade for Jose Bautista.I'm sure they would have to give up a lot to interest the Blue Jays.

This team needs some veteran middle of the order punch that can protect Joe Mauer in the three and

give Vargas some pitches in the five hole. What are the chances the Blue Jays could be hooked for

a package of Oswaldo Arcia as the replacement in right field for Joey Batts, and Brian Dozier as a second basemen. Yes these are good to decent young players. What kind of pitcher would the Twins have to put in the deal for the third piece to make a deal work. I think Tornonto would be interested in a young slugger in Arcia and and a second basemen  like Dozier. Takes talent to acquire talent, Twins get a viable home run threat for Target field and a lineup that can hum with the rest of the league. Hicks and Shaefer can platoon in left field and Buxton gets to cover center with Santana moving to short stop.

Arcia and Bautista are a wash in outfield defense in right field. Dozier would be a loss but you could replace his defense with an Escobar or Polanco and your not really going to lose much in the way of defense range, the only thing you really lose from Dozier would be some thump and some home run ability.

To me adding a guy like Bautista would be like the Twins adding Chilli Davis in 1991, a missing ingredient that can make the rest of the line-up better. Now who would be 2015 Jack Morris as the target for a front line starter?

Would Arcia and Dozier be enough to pry Bautista away from the Jays?

 

I think this trade would be in the ballpark as far as talent is concerned.

 

I also think it would be hard for a team in the Twins situation to move 9 years of young control for a 34 yo corner OF with a year and an option left on his contract. If I'm trading Dozier and Arcia I want good young controllable assets in return.

[laloesch]

I would shop Escobar and or Santana. See what the return would be on those guys. Both are young SS with offensive upside, so they should look attractive. I'm not really sure how much value either would have, but SS is the only position the Twins could trade from. Weird, considering how bad the position has been neglected by the FO. 

 

I'd be pretty hesitant to shop Santana.  He's too good of a shortstop / OF offensively to give up for just any pitcher.  In some ways he's a much more dynamic hitter than Dozier.  I'd be more inclined to shop Escobar, Dozier and Arcia at this point.  Draft a good outfielder this offseason and trade or sign a good starter  (lester or price) and we are in business.  Nolasco after a few good starts is looking like a disaster again.  Ughh....

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The Jack Morris thing is interesting. I think the Twins are a little more than "Jack Morris" and "Chili Davis" away from being a playoff team, though.

 

The most Jack Morris-y guy I can think of that might be a Free agent this offseason would be Jake Peavy. Not really sure that is a great comp... but maybe?

 

To be like the two Series winning Twins teams, this team would need more power and much better OF defense. I think the Rotation is about right if you add a Jack Morris-level starter (don't know if that player exists at the moment), and the bullpen should be just fine next year. Also, no Kirby Puckett on this team. Joe has put up team leader numbers in the past, but I don't think he's the guy to do it. 

 

Which makes the trade proposal for Bautista interesting. I think the Blue Jays might go for it because they do like team control and potential over there (how many options does Arcia have left?), but it creates a pretty big hole up the middle to lose Dozier. He may not be more than a little better than league average at 2B, but that's actually harder to replace than it looks.

[markos]

I think Plouffe will have some interest this offseason. Looking at last offseason, the Angels traded away Peter Bourjos and a decent minor leaguer for David Freese and a bullpen arm. Though Plouffe has never matched the offensive peak that Freese had back in 2012, he will be younger, have more years of team control, is a better defender and is coming off a much better season than Freese in 2013. 

 

Similarly, last offseason the Diamonbacks essentially gave up Tyler Skaggs and Adam Eaton for Mark Trumbo and some minor pieces. Plouffe doesn't have the power numbers of Trumbo, but overall they have similar value. Maybe Plouffe isn't worth both Skaggs AND Eaton, but one could argue he is at least work either Skaggs OR Eaton.

 

Given these two examples, it seems likely that Plouffe could fetch a Bourjos/Eaton type outfielder. Assuming that Santana will play SS next year and Escobar can cover 3B until Sano arrives, I think trading Plouffe is the best option - he has the most value at a position where the team has the depth to replace him.

 

On the other hand, there is a decent amount of FA depth at 3B this year: Headley, Aramis Ramirez, Hanley Ramirez, Sandoval. That may depress the market.

[Physics Guy]

I would not trade Plouffe until Sano is healthy and has proved he is a 3B.  Plouffe will eventually get too expensive to keep around, but that is at least a couple of years down the road.  Trading Plouffe because Sano is coming up is akin to trading Span and Revere because we had Hicks.  How did that work out?

[iTwins]

I think this trade would be in the ballpark as far as talent is concerned.

 

I also think it would be hard for a team in the Twins situation to move 9 years of young control for a 34 yo corner OF with a year and an option left on his contract. If I'm trading Dozier and Arcia I want good young controllable assets in return.

 

Right, I think that proposed trade works for teams that are close (Like KC, or Cleveland) more than the Twins. If moves are made, the Twins should be looking for younger talent. They're not quite to the point where adding Bautista would push them into a "contenders" posistion. Bautista is an upgrade, that's for sure - but his prime and the Twins' next prime look to be on two different timelines.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

No I don't think any of those guys could have a 20 HR, 20 SB season with the defense and OBP that Dozier brings.  

 

I think it is an interesting idea and if the trade were to happen I would be excited to see Bautista play half his games at Target Field.

 

Puckett was not only the best offensive player, but played HOF-level defense at one of the most important postions on the field. If Mauer was still catching, I'd say he's comparable. At this moment, I'd take Hrbek (age 30) over Mauer at first base. I think the Twins are missing that elite cornerstone up the middle defender... He's currently recovering from a concussion after playing in AA for the first time...

 

I think realistically the Twins will not be in the discussion for winning the Central division or getting a wild card until Buxton arrives for a full season. They could make some moves and improve to a team with a winning record before then...

[Otto von Ballpark]

To be like the two Series winning Twins teams, this team would need more power and much better OF defense. I think the Rotation is about right if you add a Jack Morris-level starter (don't know if that player exists at the moment), and the bullpen should be just fine next year. Also, no Kirby Puckett on this team. Joe has put up team leader numbers in the past, but I don't think he's the guy to do it. 

First, I don't think it's good to compare to the '87 team.  That team was actually outscored in the regular season.  Their rotation was indeed shallow, but the top two tossed 518 IP, at a combined 136 ERA+.  Those innings are not possible in today's game, and that ERA+ is not really possible for any current Twins starter or even a "Jack Morris" level starter in 2015.  (Not to mention that a lot of the value of a "Jack Morris" level starter is in the IP rather than ERA, and that IP value is capped a lot lower now than 20 years ago.)

 

Even the '91 team had 3 starters combine for 694 IP and a 134 ERA+.

 

By comparison, the only league average starter on the 2014 team is Phil Hughes, who has just barely eclipsed 200 IP at a 109 ERA+ in easily the best season of his career to date.  And that's still worse than the weakest links on the '87 and '91 SP tandems mentioned above.

 

Neither team had a deep bullpen, but there too you had the best relievers tossing 80-110 IP.  The modern-day Twins pen would need to be a quality arm or two ahead of their past WS winning brethren just to compensate for lower usage.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

That's kind of my point, though - the 87 team wasn't even particularly good and the Twins haven't been in shouting distance of that for several years now. To get up to that level of competition, the Twins would have to add more than a couple guys.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's kind of my point, though - the 87 team wasn't even particularly good and the Twins haven't been in shouting distance of that for several years now. To get up to that level of competition, the Twins would have to add more than a couple guys.

Mainly I was just responding to your comment "I think the Rotation is about right if you add a Jack Morris-level starter".  I too am not sure what a Jack Morris level guy is in 2014, but I think the rotation is a lot further away than that anyway.

 

Interestingly, the offense might be a bit closer.  No stud performers yet like the '87 and '91 teams had, but B-Ref shows a 101 OPS+ or better this year for the top PA guy at each position (although that includes Willingham).

 

Holy cow, Vargas has 4 BB in 212 PA?

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I still think that's about right, though, if you look at 1991 vs. 1990.

 

The 1990 rotation would be not too far off from this year's rotation...

 

1991 featured several young guys that didn't do much at all in 1990 - Tapani, Erickson, David West would be the current version of Hughes, Gibson and May 

 

Add a "mythical Jack Morris - level starter" to the front of that rotation, and things look a lot better.

 

There's no certainty that Hughes, Gibson, May and company would match their 1991 counterparts, but I do see similarities there.

 

The larger problem is that the 1991 rotation was good enough to compete in that era vs that league - a comparable rotation in the current era might be overmatched by the competition.

[Otto von Ballpark]

1991 featured several young guys that didn't do much at all in 1990 - Tapani, Erickson, David West would be the current version of Hughes, Gibson and May 

Okay, that makes more sense.  Although I think you underrate Erickson's 1990, and both he and Tapani were rookies that year with greater potential to improve than Hughes and Gibson (both of whom already needed significant improvement just to get to their 2014 levels).  What are the odds that Hughes and Gibson combine for 140 ERA+ next year?  Combined they're less than 100 this year.  Not that Tapani and Erickson were super-likely to do it, but they did combine for a ~120 ERA+ in 1990 as rookies.  (And man, did Erickson finish 1990 on a roll: 5-0, 1.35 ERA in 6 September starts.)

 

The other big era adjustment is you really can't compare numbers of starters like that when their innings totals differ so greatly.  That '91 Big 3 was just shy of 700 combined innings.  Even healthy, the 2015 Twins would probably need 4 starters to accumulate that many innings, and adding another guy makes it less likely they can cumulatively overperform their career numbers like the '91 guys.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Yes, I am being a bit overly hopeful about the current team. I did go back and look at the 1990 and 1991 teams, and I think it would be even more impressive if this year's version made a worst to first transition like that team did. The 2014 Twins have been an especially bad "worst" these last three years.

[nicksaviking]

The Jack Morris thing is interesting. I think the Twins are a little more than "Jack Morris" and "Chili Davis" away from being a playoff team, though.

 

The most Jack Morris-y guy I can think of that might be a Free agent this offseason would be Jake Peavy. Not really sure that is a great comp... but maybe?

 

 

 

 

I think the most Morris-y guy would be a combination of Max Scherzer and James Shields.  Morris was getting older and was coming off of a down year, but he was the top free agent arm on the market and the Twins made him the fourth highest paid pitcher in the game.  The Twins don't roll like that anymore.

 

And just say "NO" to Mat Latos.  I would have loved him last year, but then his K% dropped from 21% to 17% and his fastball velocity dropped from 92.6 MPH to 90.7 MPH.  He has flameout written all over him and even if he can maintain what he did this year, he looks to be traditional PTC Twins standard fare. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think the most Morris-y guy would be a combination of Max Scherzer and James Shields.  Morris was getting older and was coming off of a down year, but he was the top free agent arm on the market and the Twins made him the fourth highest paid pitcher in the game.  The Twins don't roll like that anymore.

Arguably, they never really rolled like that.  Morris got a big AAV that year but a pretty short contract, very short when you consider the 2nd and 3rd years were player options.  And of course he was 36 years old and a local boy coming off 3 years of combined 89 ERA+ pitching.  The Twins weren't really big players in the FA market, but man did they get lucky here.  Basically a perfectly timed best-case scenario of all of our various hometown signings in the 90's.  Not only got a great season but then he took us off the hook for his age 37 and 38 seasons.

 

And luck or not, I enjoyed the heck out of that season!

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

 

Holy cow, Vargas has 4 BB in 212 PA?

 

hey, Puckett only had 23 BB in 691 PA in 1988 - If Kennys wants to hit .356 too, it's ok with me...