Article: Report: Twins Agree to Sign Kendrys Morales

[cmathewson]

Awesome idea. After seeing Meyer last night on limited pitch count, I can definitely see this happening later in the year. My Gosh, he'd be lights out and get his feet wet in majors at same time. Great idea jokin

 

I think he needs to get his innings in six at a time, and not two at a time. He needs to be able to pitch 180 innings next year. So 130 this year is the quota, maybe a few more. Tough to get that in the pen.

[Squirrel]

Morales is active and with the club. Might he pinch hit today?

 

I could see them maybe putting him in in a low leverage situation (ie if it's 8-0) late in the game, just to get some reps, but I couldn't see them doing that otherwise.

[Mike Sixel]

I am still in shock. If I didn't have people coming in town this week I would be at the game. I said they would get more of my money when they started spending theirs.

[twinssouth]

I think he needs to get his innings in six at a time, and not two at a time. He needs to be able to pitch 180 innings next year. So 130 this year is the quota, maybe a few more. Tough to get that in the pen.

 

I agree, I'm just saying, after he builds up his stamina and gets his innings in at Rochester, say 160 to 180, he could be a late season call up and in short relief. And, if Twins are still in contention, they could use his arsenal in key moments. It's win win, gets his feet wet and ready for 2015 rotation. Or, Twins may surprise me and bring him up this summer which would be awesome.

[Dman]

I think a pretty clear directive came down from the Pohlads in the off-season that management had gotten a little too conservative.

 

Not that I ever expect Ryan to be a free spender but I think he did have to adjust to the fact that the budget constraints aren't identical to those in the days of the Dome.

 

Granted I don't know much about Jim Pohlad but based on what I have heard him say in public he seems willing to spend significantly more than the team has. He does typically end such statements as he leaves signings to the FO or more specifically TR. He doesn't appear to get overly involved in baseball operations at that level.

 

So based on that I agree that they are free to spend up to whatever the limit is. With TR at the helm it will likely only be prudent spending and not just to spend to the limit.

[VandyTwinsFan]

I just heard on the radio broadcast that Mitch Moreland is out for 6 months after having ankle surgery. Morales can play some 1B. What if the Twins were to flip Morales to the Rangers for a prospect? Worth it?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

We've been debating that very point. Now, how do the Twins demote the Face of the Franchise to the bottom of the order?

 

As Nike's motto states: "Just do it".

[tarheeltwinsfan]

No one is saying this is the final piece. Just a step in the right direction. Incidentally, it also shows a greater willingness to jettison sunk costs. I am sad for Kubel, but he will make $3M to watch from the couch this year. Correia should be on notice.

 

Lost in all this is the man taking the questions at the press conference. Terry Ryan was front and center and appears to be back at the helm. Hopefully this is the first of several moves by the Commodore.

 

Welcome back Terry!

[JB_Iowa]

Welcome back Terry!

 

Now figure out some better pitching.

[snepp]

Now figure out some better pitching.

 

There May be a solution for this.

[frightwig]

Morales' projections of OPS ranged from 744 (zips) to 795 (steamer) and 0.5 to 1.5 WAR on a full season. Twin DHs have an OPS of 860 this year. Twin first basemen have an OPS of 649.

 

Yeah, this is why it seems like a pointless move. They're probably getting little to no upgrade at DH (and I don't really expect Morales to get much time at 1B unless Mauer is on the DL), and even if Pinto/Santana and anyone else who might otherwise DH turned into replacement-level players the rest of the way, Morales is likely to be worth less than 1 WAR in half a season.

 

Currently Fangraphs projects the Twins to finish with 74 wins, with 1.9% chance at the postseason. If the rest of the season plays out according to their present run differential (-24), the team is headed for 75 wins. But given that some good players may be hurt or traded, or just regress, this summer, I could see the team slipping to 70-72 wins, too. A lot of positive changes would have to happen to make this 2014 team a real contender. And people are excited that Terry Ryan added a DH who probably won't add more than one win, if that, to a 70-something win total?

 

Meanwhile, for the chance at this marginal, short-term gain, Ryan and Gardy will block Pinto, Santana and other younger players who should be getting regular plate appearances. If the club cared about player development, if the club were committed to a real plan for the future, management would put a high priority on getting the young guys regular playing time to help them get established this season, to get them better prepared for next season. And it shouldn't be hard to do, anyway, given what little difference there is between the youngsters and a guy like Kendrys Morales.

 

Nope, apparently management is just tired of losing now. It's embarrassing, you guys! And although it's still a bad team, it's technically still "in the race," and there's this veteran bat available, so LET'S GET HIM and GO FOR IT!!!!1!!!!

 

Some of you might think this shows that the Twins are "serious." I think it shows that Twins management is seriously lost.

[JB_Iowa]

Yeah, this is why it seems like a pointless move.

 

Hmmm .... the possibility of somewhat better performance vs. keeping the money in Pohlad's pockets.

 

I vote for giving the fans something new to watch even if it doesn't pan out. I sincerely don't think Morales is blocking anybody except possibly Kennys Vargas and while I'd like to see Vargas at some point this season, I'll be content if it's later in the year.

 

And i still think that if the Twins go nowhere, the potential of trading Morales has some value.

[kab21]

Some notes...

 

Morales' projections of OPS ranged from 744 (zips) to 795 (steamer) and 0.5 to 1.5 WAR on a full season. Twin DHs have an OPS of 860 this year. Twin first basemen have an OPS of 649.

 

Morales will not be eligible for a qualifying offer at the end of the season. He will be able to seek a multiyear deal without being tied to compensation.

 

Free agents signed in the winter can not be traded until June 15. I don't think there is any other restriction on trading Morales.

 

If you are going to use ZiPS projections for Morales then you should use ZiPS for whichever player(s) he pushes out of the lineup instead of the incredibly lucky .860 OPS posted by whichever players have DH'd.

 

Guys losing AB's and their ZiPS

Kubel - .666

Santana - .645

Nunez - .669 - this guy keeps showing up in the lineup in the OF/DH - he's a futility IF'er that shouldn't be starting ever at these positions

Parmelee - .682

Pinto - .714 - it should also be obvious that Pinto wasn't going to be DH'ing a lot.

 

I will gladly take a legitimate middle of the order bat in place of this list only for the cost of money (that isn't mine).

[jorgenswest]

For some reason I like this move.

 

I can't imagine it has more than a 1 win impact.

 

I know that they could have filled the spot with a third catcher and played Pinto regularly.

 

I know this means Willingham is stuck in LF. He will wear down and his performance will drop possibly costing the win they gained.

 

I know Morales will be elsewhere next year and really won't be very marketable this year.

 

I know you don't rebuild by fielding your oldest team in the last two decades. Morales adds to the record number of players in their 30s the Twins have used this year.

 

... and I still like the move when it goes against reason.

 

Intellectually, it makes so much more sense to build the next winning team. As a regular viewer and listener, I seem to care more about the ever so small increase in likelihood that they will win the next game.

[kab21]

I think he needs to get his innings in six at a time, and not two at a time. He needs to be able to pitch 180 innings next year. So 130 this year is the quota, maybe a few more. Tough to get that in the pen.

 

You don't move Meyer to the bullpen until August when he has pitched most of his starter workload innings. By the end of July he should have 120+ innings so picking up an extra 10/month as a RP'er works well. If you leave him at starter for the whole season then he will end up with 160-180. Obviously you have to handle him differently than a normal RP'er (like no back to back games) but he gets a taste of MLB hitters and should be ready for the rotation in April.

[kab21]

Intellectually, it makes so much more sense to build the next winning team. As a regular viewer and listener, I seem to care more about the ever so small increase in likelihood that they will win the next game.

 

But it doesn't intellectually make sense when you don't have young (good) prospects getting the AB's that Morales is taking and the players that he replaces suck.

 

If Sano wasn't out for the year, Buxton hadn't missed the 1st 2+ months, Vargas was ready to be promoted, Parmelee hadn't sucked again or if the Twins had legitimate young options for those AB's then Morales wouldn't be a great choice. But the Twins are giving those AB's to some absolutely awful players. Intellectually this move should make a lot of sense.

[Trevor0333]

The shocking Morales signing (take that you people who still call the Pohlads cheapskates), means that changes are coming. I would guess that Kubel is gone, since Parms can play 1b. This move signifies the weakness of the AL Central that the Twins think they can make a run. The lineup looks formidable (in Twins' terms), and Hughes, Gibson and Even Nolasco of late have been good. So I expect the next domino to fall to be Correia or Burton. Meyer, May, Tonkin and Achter as possible replacements. I don't know it will be enough, but meaningful baseball late into the summer will be a welcome sight after the last three years

 

They've dropped payroll every year since the 1st in the new park EASILY 20-30 mill under the approved 52% of revenue. Now this year they receive 25 extra mill in tv revenue & are still 15 mill under what was spent in the first year at target field.

 

A 1 year 7 mill deal & you want to throw it in peoples faces with over the 60-80 mill of unspent payroll over the last few years that's just going into Pohlads pockets that this shows they & Ryan aren't cheap.

 

Good luck with that argument.

[jorgenswest]

They've dropped payroll every year since the 1st in the new park EASILY 20-30 mill under the approved 52% of revenue. Now this year they receive 25 extra mill in tv revenue & are still 15 mill under what was spent in the first year at target field.

 

A 1 year 7 mill deal & you want to throw it in peoples faces with over the 60-80 mill of unspent payroll over the last few years that's just going into Pohlads pockets that this shows they & Ryan aren't cheap.

 

Good luck with that argument.

 

I think the math on the 25 million increase is misleading. I believe it is the average of the old deal over several years compared to the average of the new deal over several years. Each deal increased annually so 2013 was the top end of the previous and 2014 is the bottom of the current. The actual amount might be in the 5-10 million range before mlb takes their cut.

[jokin]

There May be a solution for this.

 

Yes, especially if they don't get Meyered down in the details around "consistency".

[jokin]

Hmmm .... the possibility of somewhat better performance vs. keeping the money in Pohlad's pockets.

 

I vote for giving the fans something new to watch even if it doesn't pan out. I sincerely don't think Morales is blocking anybody except possibly Kennys Vargas and while I'd like to see Vargas at some point this season, I'll be content if it's later in the year.

 

And i still think that if the Twins go nowhere, the potential of trading Morales has some value.

 

He will also block Pinto, but the signing still makes a lot of sense. If the Twins still stink on July 31, the Twins may be able to parlay a decent player out of Morales and still have time to develop Vargas in August and September. Or better yet, the Twins might not be done tinkering, Ryan himself said today the situation for roster positions is fluid, and there are still possible trades and deals that could be made. Ryan is back, and he's going for it....as long as the future isn't being unduly harmed or mortgaged, how can any Twins fan be against this?

[Guest USAFChief]

I think the math on the 25 million increase is misleading. I believe it is the average of the old deal over several years compared to the average of the new deal over several years. Each deal increased annually so 2013 was the top end of the previous and 2014 is the bottom of the current. The actual amount might be in the 5-10 million range before mlb takes their cut.

According to this article, it's $25m per team in additional 2014 revenue over 2013.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-new-national-tv-contracts-and-2014-payrolls/

[jorgenswest]

According to this article, it's $25m per team in additional 2014 revenue over 2013.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-new-national-tv-contracts-and-2014-payrolls/

 

I have seen and heard a different explanation of the 25 million average per year increase and what it means when comparing 2013 and 2014. One link

 

http://www.royalsreview.com/2014/2/19/5423414/mellinger-on-the-royals-finances

 

I am not sure which is correct. If teams received the same fixed amount in each year of the previous contract and will receive the same fixed amount each year for the next 8 years of the new contract then it is a 25 million dollar change from 2013-2014.

 

If both of the contracts have built in year to year increases and it is a difference in average per year, then the change from 2013 to 2014 would be significantly smaller than 25 million.

 

The year 2021 would be around 25 million more than 2013 and the year 2014 would be around 25 million more than 2006 assuming the contracts were the same duration.

 

In either case, the Twins can absolutely afford Morales. That is not in dispute.

[Willihammer]

ESPN writeup on the signing

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/48207/will-kendrys-morales-power-twins-bid

[drivlikejehu]

He will also block Pinto, but the signing still makes a lot of sense. If the Twins still stink on July 31, the Twins may be able to parlay a decent player out of Morales and still have time to develop Vargas in August and September. Or better yet, the Twins might not be done tinkering, Ryan himself said today the situation for roster positions is fluid, and there are still possible trades and deals that could be made. Ryan is back, and he's going for it....as long as the future isn't being unduly harmed or mortgaged, how can any Twins fan be against this?

 

The team is in last place, 3 games under .500. Adding Morales does nothing to fundamentally alter the pecking order in the American League. It's a modest improvement to a team that is not a contender.

 

If the plan was to contend this year, then the off-season was grossly inadequate, even with the signings of Hughes & Nolasco. They didn't add enough to contend and the results have clearly demonstrated as much.

 

I do think the organization is concerned about the impact the past few years has had on the fan base. I see the logic in trying to bolster the odds of finishing .500 or fairly close to it. But the problem is this - that goal is inconsistent with trading away guys at the deadline, even if it remains clear that the playoffs are out of the question.

[jokin]

The team is in last place, 3 games under .500. Adding Morales does nothing to fundamentally alter the pecking order in the American League. It's a modest improvement to a team that is not a contender.

 

If the plan was to contend this year, then the off-season was grossly inadequate, even with the signings of Hughes & Nolasco. They didn't add enough to contend and the results have clearly demonstrated as much.

 

I do think the organization is concerned about the impact the past few years has had on the fan base. I see the logic in trying to bolster the odds of finishing .500 or fairly close to it. But the problem is this - that goal is inconsistent with trading away guys at the deadline, even if it remains clear that the playoffs are out of the question.

 

Last place today, while just a few days ago they were in 2nd place? Place means nothing. As it stands right now, 11 AL teams are within 6 games of a Wild Card spot. 8 teams are just above .500, at .500, or just below .500. Parity has broken out in the League in a big, big way.

 

 

No arguments here about their lack of insight in the offseason, many of us are just glad that they have finally started now to respond to make a more earnest effort to compete with what many of us pointed out were logical, obvious, necessary, doable, affordable and still strategically-sound moves for the long run.

 

And trading away 2 potentially valuable chips (along with veteran pitching) at the deadline, if done properly in, can strengthen the club with new prospects, while letting valuable current prospects (Rosario, Vargas, Pitchers) begin to get their feet wet this year going into 2015

[diehardtwinsfan]

Moderator note here. The Twins just spent 7M dollars on a legitimate bat to go into the lineup. Let's not turn this thread into a debate on payroll. We've seen far too many threads derail on that subject. What has been said has been said many times.

 

thank you.

[drivlikejehu]

Last place today, while just a few days ago they were in 2nd place? Place means nothing. As it stands right now, 11 AL teams are within 6 games of a Wild Card spot. 8 teams are just above .500, at .500, or just below .500. Parity has broken out in the League in a big, big way.

 

I don't agree that the current standings mean nothing. The Twins have to outplay a ton of teams from here on out just to get a wildcard spot.

 

Could they outplay the White Sox? Of course. Kansas City? Sure. But then also - New York? Baltimore? Texas? Seattle? Los Angeles? Cleveland? Boston?

 

The Twins aren't going to be able to keep pace with or overtake so many clubs. It's not realistic if you look at the rosters of the other teams and compare to the Twins. You can come up with reasons for why it will happen for any individual opponent, but collectively a few of those are going to play better baseball from here on out.

[tobi0040]

If you are going to use ZiPS projections for Morales then you should use ZiPS for whichever player(s) he pushes out of the lineup instead of the incredibly lucky .860 OPS posted by whichever players have DH'd.

 

Guys losing AB's and their ZiPS

Kubel - .666

Santana - .645

Nunez - .669 - this guy keeps showing up in the lineup in the OF/DH - he's a futility IF'er that shouldn't be starting ever at these positions

Parmelee - .682

Pinto - .714 - it should also be obvious that Pinto wasn't going to be DH'ing a lot.

 

I will gladly take a legitimate middle of the order bat in place of this list only for the cost of money (that isn't mine).

 

I really like this move as a stand alone, esecially since Kendry is not blocking anyone of value. I just am confused at which direction we are going in. Are we rebuilding, are we contending? Seems kind of half and half to me

[JB_Iowa]

Tom Powers' concluding paragraphs of this story: http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_25924786/tom-powers-contending-twins-bolster-roster

 

sum it up pretty well:

 

To me, either you're in or you're out. Ryan and the front office indicated they were in by signing Morales. They will indicate otherwise if the Twins go through the rotation a couple more times with similar results and make no internal moves. The Morales signing fills a vital need but the pitching, overall, remains subpar.

The good news is that Ryan has his heart set on being in contention for a postseason spot. He absolutely believes it is possible.

"We're at a point in the season where there's a lot of baseball left," he said. "Why not the Twins?"

Why not the Twins? Offhand, I'd say pitching. But, wow, I wasn't expecting that question today. Maybe not even for a couple of years. Let me think about it as soon as I'm finished with these smelling salts.

[DaveW]

I honestly don't see how anyone can dislike this move.

 

The idea that Willingham/Correia/Suzuki were somehow going to bring back some stud prospects for the future is frankly just incorrect, at best you are looking at some C level prospects who at best would be role players moving forward.

 

I'm glad the Twins are going for it at this stage, hopefully this allows them eventually to send Pinto down to get some more work defensively so someday he truly can become an everyday catcher, I don't think he will hit enough to work at DH, so I think this is very important.

 

Morales is a stud and instantly becomes this lineups best hitter (until Mauer gets it back)