Don't Build Like The Twins

[Otto von Ballpark]

That it's a team in transition and the Twins themselves would agree "don't build [a team you expect to contend for a few years] like this"?

 

Yeah, the Twins were never building for 2014. They've always been building for 2016+, which sucks in its own way but doesn't deserve any additional scorn for not being built by 2014.

 

That said, even before our 2011-2012 collapse, the Twins tended to emphasize lower K pitchers and were getting inconsistent at best results at a number of defensive positions. These characteristics aren't new to the 2012-2014 Twins clubs, and are not purely the result of rebuilding trades and non-contender experimentation (although yes, the Span/Revere trades hurt in this regard).

 

Are we going to commit to another Cuddyer/Young type corner OF defense for our next hopeful contender?

[drivlikejehu]

Agreed they were different. Gomez hit more for average, Hicks got on base. But I can't help but see parallels. Ton of tools, young, probably promoted too soon and took awhile to figure it out.

 

But between Hicks 8 HR in half the year last year, his .338 slugging. His .338 OBP this year and his .382 OBP in May, I stand by the fact that I have seen more glimpses of an MLB player out of Hicks then I saw in Gomez first three years here. And Hicks is at about 40% of the games, albeit a little older.

 

I guess the issue is this: at what point does he actually have to produce? When Buxton comes up, do you put him in a corner spot even if his OPS remains well below .700? Is there an actual disagreement or do you just want to express your optimism?

[Mike Sixel]

Hicks is also a SH, who can't hit at all from the more important side. Gomez, OTOH, only had to improve from one side. And Gomez was a great fielder day one.

 

No place am I saying he won't succeed some day, but that day looks pretty far off right now.....but given that I still don't think they are legit contenders this year, keep running him out there if you think he can learn in the majors.

[jokin]

It is an article written by a Dodgers blogger. His entire knowledge of the Twins is probably the three game series they played a couple weeks ago.

 

It's also fun to note that the Dodgers, with some really talented (and really expensive) players are in about the same spot as our Twinks. Third place in the division and one game out of a wildcard.

 

Fun? I think that it's more delightfully known as schadenfreude.

 

Want even more Dodger Blue schadenfreude? How about them also using Drewbie as a Relief Pitcher?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Agreed they were different. Gomez hit more for average, Hicks got on base. But I can't help but see parallels. Ton of tools, young, probably promoted too soon and took awhile to figure it out.

 

But between Hicks 8 HR in half the year last year, his .338 slugging. His .338 OBP this year and his .382 OBP in May, I stand by the fact that I have seen more glimpses of an MLB player out of Hicks then I saw in Gomez first three years here. And Hicks is at about 40% of the games, albeit a little older.

 

2 years older.

 

Gomez was in mid June of his first season with the Twins, 22.5 years old, when he reached Hicks' current career PA total (Hicks is 24.5 years old). And he actually seemed to be stabilizing around a .700 OPS at that time, with his customary plus defense.

 

Gomez slid to a .657 OPS finish that season, and unfortunately spent basically the entirety of his next season (age 23) as a part-time player. You remember folks here ragging on the Twins for only playing Parmelee at a 490 PA pace last year? Imagine if he was 2 years younger, just one year removed from being a top 50-60 prospect in all of baseball, and only got 350 PA for the full season!

 

Gomez was actually traded by the Twins before his 24th birthday, which was last October for Hicks. Guess there is more than one way to interpret that -- Gomez had over twice the MLB PAs of Hicks before we "gave up" on him.... but then again, we "gave up" on him at an age that has already come and gone for Hicks. (Although trading him for 2 modestly priced seasons of JJ Hardy was hardly giving up on the guy. Do you think Hicks could net that kind of return?)

[tobi0040]

I guess the issue is this: at what point does he actually have to produce? When Buxton comes up, do you put him in a corner spot even if his OPS remains well below .700? Is there an actual disagreement or do you just want to express your optimism?

 

I absolutely disagree with several of your comments on this thread. Including:

 

1. "he absolutely cannot be counted on"

 

2. "something big will have to change that will allow him to hit the ball hard, or he will wash out"

 

3. "if you want a productive OF, Hicks has no place in it"

 

4. "what is all of this talk about Hicks in a corner OF spot, he has no chance"

 

 

Regarding 1, 3, and 4, he is 24 years old and skipped AAA, which was not his fault. He has had just over 400 AB’s so far. I am not ready to give up on him, given his age, tools, and glimpses I have seen thus far (OBP so far this year, slugging last year, HR’s last year). And I have a sour taste in my mouth regarding the likes of Gomez and Hardy, who were here longer.

 

Regarding number 2, his slugging was league average among CF last year. So it seems like hitting the ball hard wasn’t a challenge, yet his BABIP was still pretty low. Maybe luck has played a role.

 

Regarding how long do we have to wait, if his OPS gets to above .700 with his youth, arm, and tools, he has a ton of trade value for a CF. Moving him for a good arm or SS would be a huge win and realistic given what we got for Revere and Span.

[jokin]

I absolutely disagree with several of your comments on this thread. Including:

 

1. "he absolutely cannot be counted on"

 

2. "something big will have to change that will allow him to hit the ball hard, or he will wash out"

 

3. "if you want a productive OF, Hicks has no place in it"

 

4. "what is all of this talk about Hicks in a corner OF spot, he has no chance"

 

 

Regarding 1, 3, and 4, he is 24 years old and skipped AAA, which was not his fault. He has had just over 400 AB’s so far. I am not ready to give up on him, given his age, tools, and glimpses I have seen thus far (OBP so far this year, slugging last year, HR’s last year). And I have a sour taste in my mouth regarding the likes of Gomez and Hardy, who were here longer.

 

Regarding number 2, his slugging was league average among CF last year. So it seems like hitting the ball hard wasn’t a challenge, yet his BABIP was still pretty low. Maybe luck has played a role.

 

Regarding how long do we have to wait, if his OPS gets to above .700 with his youth, arm, and tools, he has a ton of trade value for a CF. Moving him for a good arm or SS would be a huge win and realistic given what we got for Revere and Span.

 

As controversial as projections are around this site- particularly for underestimating future performance.....here's a 5-year Oliver projection, sure to make certain less-optimistic heads explode (I would love to see how they came up with Hicks somehow achieiving a 10.7 Def ranking). (It also makes me want to go and find the 5-year Oliver projection for Carlos Gomez around 2010.

 

[TABLE=class: rgMasterTable, width: 978]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray]Season[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray]Team[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]Age[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]G[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]PA[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]HR[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]R[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]RBI[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]SB[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BB%[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]K%[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]ISO[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BABIP[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]AVG[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]OBP[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]SLG[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]wOBA[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]wRC+[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BsR[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]Off[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]Def[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]WAR[/TH]

[TR=class: rgRow grid_projectionsin_show, bgcolor: #E5E5E5]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2014[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Oliver[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]24[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]143[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]600[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]70[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]55[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]20[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]8.5 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]27.2 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].145[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].295[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right].225[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].294[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].370[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].293[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]83[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]3.6[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]-8.2[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]10.7[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]2.4[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: rgRow grid_projectionsin_show, bgcolor: #E1F4D8]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2015[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Oliver[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]25[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]143[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]600[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]70[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]55[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]20[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]8.8 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]26.8 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].146[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].295[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right].226[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].297[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].371[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].296[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]84[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]3.6[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]-7.1[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]10.7[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]2.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: rgRow grid_projectionsin_show, bgcolor: #E1F4D8]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2016[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Oliver[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]26[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]143[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]600[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]70[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]55[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]20[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]9.2 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]26.7 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].144[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].293[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right].225[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].299[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].369[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].296[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]84[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]3.6[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]-7.0[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]10.7[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]2.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: rgRow grid_projectionsin_show, bgcolor: #E1F4D8]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2017[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Oliver[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]27[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]143[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]600[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]69[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]55[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]19[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]9.5 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]26.5 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].144[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].290[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right].223[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].300[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].368[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].296[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]85[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]3.4[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]-7.1[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]10.7[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]2.5[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: rgRow grid_projectionsin_show, bgcolor: #E1F4D8]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2018[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Oliver[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]28[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]143[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]600[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]13[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]68[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]55[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]17[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]9.7 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]26.3 %[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].141[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].288[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right].222[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].300[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].363[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].295[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]84[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]3.0[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]-8.2[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]10.7[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]2.4[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[tobi0040]

2 years older.

 

Gomez was in mid June of his first season with the Twins, 22.5 years old, when he reached Hicks' current career PA total (Hicks is 24.5 years old). And he actually seemed to be stabilizing around a .700 OPS at that time, with his customary plus defense.

 

Gomez slid to a .657 OPS finish that season, and unfortunately spent basically the entirety of his next season (age 23) as a part-time player. You remember folks here ragging on the Twins for only playing Parmelee at a 490 PA pace last year? Imagine if he was 2 years younger, just one year removed from being a top 50-60 prospect in all of baseball, and only got 350 PA for the full season!

 

Gomez was actually traded by the Twins before his 24th birthday, which was last October for Hicks. Guess there is more than one way to interpret that -- Gomez had over twice the MLB PAs of Hicks before we "gave up" on him.... but then again, we "gave up" on him at an age that has already come and gone for Hicks. (Although trading him for 2 modestly priced seasons of JJ Hardy was hardly giving up on the guy. Do you think Hicks could net that kind of return?)

 

I acknowledged he was younger. But you have more similarities than differences. Gomez didn't click until 25 or 26 with Milwaukee. His first year there he had an OPS of .655, then .679 before .768 at age 26. That was over 1,500 at bats under his belt.

[tobi0040]

As controversial as projections are around this site- particularly for underestimating future performance.....here's a 5-year Oliver projection, sure to make certain less-optimistic heads explode (I would love to see how they came up with Hicks somehow achieiving a 10.7 Def ranking). (It sldo makes me want to find the 5-year Oliver projection for Carlos Gomez around 2010.

 

[TABLE=class: rgMasterTable, width: 978]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray]Season

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray]Team

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]Age

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]G

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]PA

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]HR

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]R

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]RBI

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]SB

[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BB%

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]K%

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]ISO

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BABIP

[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]AVG

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]OBP

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]SLG

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]wOBA

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]wRC+

[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]BsR

[/TH]

[TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]Off

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]Def

[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right]WAR

[/TH]

[TR=class: rgRow grid_projectionsin_show, bgcolor: #e5e5e5]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2014

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Oliver

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]24

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]143

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]600

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]13

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]70

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]55

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]20

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]8.5 %

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]27.2 %

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].145

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].295

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right].225

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].294

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].370

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].293

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]83

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]3.6

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]-8.2

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]10.7

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]2.4

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: rgRow grid_projectionsin_show, bgcolor: #e1f4d8]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2015

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Oliver

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]25

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]143

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]600

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]13

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]70

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]55

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]20

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]8.8 %

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]26.8 %

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].146

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].295

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right].226

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].297

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].371

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].296

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]84

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]3.6

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]-7.1

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]10.7

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]2.5

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: rgRow grid_projectionsin_show, bgcolor: #e1f4d8]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2016

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Oliver

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]26

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]143

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]600

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]13

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]70

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]55

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]20

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]9.2 %

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]26.7 %

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].144

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].293

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right].225

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].299

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].369

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].296

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]84

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]3.6

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]-7.0

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]10.7

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]2.5

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: rgRow grid_projectionsin_show, bgcolor: #e1f4d8]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2017

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Oliver

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]27

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]143

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]600

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]13

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]69

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]55

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]19

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]9.5 %

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]26.5 %

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].144

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].290

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right].223

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].300

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].368

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].296

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]85

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]3.4

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]-7.1

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]10.7

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]2.5

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: rgRow grid_projectionsin_show, bgcolor: #e1f4d8]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2018

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Oliver

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[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]28

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]143

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[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]600

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]13

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]68

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]55

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[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]17

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[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]9.7 %

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[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]26.3 %

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].141

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].288

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right].222

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].300

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].363

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right].295

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]84

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]3.0

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]-8.2

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[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]10.7

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[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]2.4

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[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Give me about 30 seconds to do my own projection. Take current numbers and paste into excel. add the upcoming years. Copy and drag down. Hard key in and remove a stolen base from the 4 and 5 year number to appear I put thought into this.

 

I am guessing Gomez 2010 would look like:

 

.247 BA, 5 HR, 18 SB, .655 OPS

.247 BA, 5 HR, 18 SB, .655 OPS

.247 BA, 5 HR, 18 SB, .655 OPS

.247 BA, 5 HR, 17 SB, .655 OPS

.247 BA, 5 HR, 16 SB, .655 OPS

 

Spot on to his actual results.

[Riverbrian]

I agree that Fuld is the best defender of the group, but Parmelee is much worse than Hicks. He has terrible range so he can't get to a lot of balls -- he only looks good because he catches nearly everything he can reach, so he makes the most of his abilities.

 

I agree that Parm makes the most of his abilities and I do give him a bunch of points for that.

 

As for "much worse than Hicks"... I disagree.

 

The first issue is with the word "Much"... That word was way too much!!!

 

Hicks has shown me nothing to make me say he's "much" better than anyone defensively. I read about his 96MPH arm but I haven't seen it. He doesn't seem to have the instincts to use it. He has range but he doesn't consistently track the difficult ball.

 

As for simply better instead of "much"... Hicks better be better... He's our CF.

 

Every team needs a CF who can cover ground. Our Guy is Hicks and compared to what the majority of the rest of the league is playing in CF. Hicks is below average right now.

 

As for Parm... His range is fine for a corner.... He catches everything he gets to and the stuff he can't get to... Very Few in the corners can. Parm also has a pretty decent arm and despite being less than (supposedly) Hicks's arm. Parm has managed to clip some base runners with it. Parm also plays the wall in RF better than anybody.

 

Parm is not a concern defensively. Parm remains a concern with the high fastball.

[jokin]

Give me about 30 seconds to do my own projection. Take current numbers and paste into excel. add the upcoming years. Copy and drag down. Hard key in and remove a stolen base from the 4 and 5 year number to appear I put thought into this.

 

There actually was a little more thought than that put into it, scroll all the way over..... BABIP normalizes up quite a bit and drags the BA up. But his OBP plummets, while his WAR puts him into the acceptable range. And most importantly, he head-scratchingly somehow goes from one of the worst defensive CF in baseball, to one of the top 4 best, based on 2013 Def figures.

[Riverbrian]

Hicks has tools... He hasn't learned to use them yet. He could be an amazing RF in the future. I'm willing to be patient with him but he isn't performing at an MLB level in any part of his game right now.

 

He isn't hitting... He isn't stealing bases... He isn't gunning out runners and he isn't catching balls that he shouldn't catch and he is missing catches that he should make.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As controversial as projections are around this site- particularly for underestimating future performance

 

Underestimation is only one side of the projection coin. On top of projecting regression from good players, most systems also project bad players to get better. Both ideas are incredibly flawed for obvious reasons.

[tobi0040]

Hicks has tools... He hasn't learned to use them yet. He could be an amazing RF in the future. I'm willing to be patient with him but he isn't performing at an MLB level in any part of his game right now.

 

He isn't hitting... He isn't stealing bases... He isn't gunning out runners and he isn't catching balls that he shouldn't catch and he is missing catches that he should make.

 

 

He has 3 OF assists this year, the league leader for CF has 4 (one person). I agree on the broader point though.

[drivlikejehu]

Regarding how long do we have to wait, if his OPS gets to above .700 with his youth, arm, and tools, he has a ton of trade value for a CF. Moving him for a good arm or SS would be a huge win and realistic given what we got for Revere and Span.

 

You didn't respond to my post. Your actual point of view is totally unclear except that it's different than mine. Here's another try:

 

How long would you start Hicks while his OPS remains below .650? Through 2015? Through 2016?

 

You keep acting like its a 100% guarantee he will turn it around. That's just false. It's not an opinion, either, it is a fact. We do not know whether Hicks will turn it around and therefore cannot count on him to do so.

[Riverbrian]

He has 3 OF assists this year, the league leader for CF has 4 (one person). I agree on the broader point though.

 

His arm is great... I remember a throw he made at Yankee Stadium last year.

 

Deep center to third on the fly. I saw it so I know he has it. I just haven't seen it in full glory.

 

He racked up a lot of OF assists last year in a short time frame but there was only one or two that stood out.

 

Most of them were... Why is he running type outs?

[jokin]

Underestimation is only one side of the projection coin. On top of projecting regression from good players, most systems also project bad players to get better. Both are incredibly flawed for obvious reasons.

 

And thus- "projection job well done- business as usual", "nothing to see here"= ignore the disturbing things that we can actually discern from Hicks' actual career performance thus far.

 

Predicting the average and BABIP will rise closer to league average is a perfectly reasonable assumption.....turning from one of the worst, into one of the top 4 CF in baseball isn't. It still makes me wonder what the Oliver projections have done in similar situations with other guys like Gomez who struggled early on in their MLB careers.

[Mike Sixel]

Trading a young player for a proven SS is hardly "giving up on him", imo.

[tobi0040]

You didn't respond to my post. Your actual point of view is totally unclear except that it's different than mine. Here's another try:

 

How long would you start Hicks while his OPS remains below .650? Through 2015? Through 2016?

 

You keep acting like its a 100% guarantee he will turn it around. That's just false. It's not an opinion, either, it is a fact. We do not know whether Hicks will turn it around and therefore cannot count on him to do so.

 

You asked if we disagreed. I compiled three or four of your posts and said that I disagreed with them, then specifically responded to each point.

 

I never said it was a lock that he turns it around, just that I am not ready to move on after 400 at bats given his age, potential, tools, and that it took Go Go about five years. Your comments suggest you are ready to move on. That is where the disagreement is and I was very clear about that.

 

I would personally give Hicks the reps through the rest of the year in CF. If Buxton is ready next spring, then bring him up and Hicks is in competition for the corners or explore a trade (which I would do starting next spring anyway).

[Brock Beauchamp]

And thus- "projection job well done- business as usual", "nothing to see here"= ignore the disturbing things that we can actually discern from Hicks' actual career performance thus far.

 

Predicting the average and BABIP will rise closer to league average is a perfectly reasonable assumption.....turning from one of the worst, into one of the top 4 CF in baseball isn't. It still makes me wonder what the Oliver projections have done in similar situations with other guys like Gomez who struggled early on in their MLB careers.

 

Yeah, I'd be curious to see Gomez' projections as well.

 

I think we can all agree that Hicks will never become an adequate MLB hitter until he changes something about his approach. He won't simply get better through magical osmosis. He's not making good contact. That's not something that magically goes away, he needs to change his approach or swing, probably both.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Trading a young player for a proven SS is hardly "giving up on him", imo.

 

The Hardy/Gomez trade would have been a win all around had the Twins not, you know, traded Hardy for a faulty 96mph pitching machine.

[Dman]

Let's go back to after the 2009 season, Gomez has had 700 more at bats than Hicks to this point. What was your opinion about Gomez and his ability to be our CF?

 

I had seen enough and would have traded him for a Diet Coke, and that is what scares me about the blanket statements about Hicks to this point.

 

I agree I hated watching Gomez chase fastballs low and away out of the strike zone. Heck just keep throwing the ball there and he would strike himself out. It took him forever to try and lay off of those. I lived with the hope he would get better because of his speed and defense but when the Twins traded him for Hardy I was more than ready to see him leave. Now I want him back, boy was I wrong about him never figuring it out. Question is though how long are you going to wait?

[drivlikejehu]

I would personally give Hicks the reps through the rest of the year in CF. If Buxton is ready next spring, then bring him up and Hicks is in competition for the corners or explore a trade (which I would do starting next spring anyway).

 

I've said all along he may as well play out the year. That was my point - there is no disagreement there, I am not "giving up" on him, etc.

 

Now, I do doubt he can hit. I certainly would not assume he will dramatically improve, because we should rarely, if ever, assume that for any player.

[cmathewson]

I wouldn't assume Hicks will radically improve, but he has three months of OPSes above .700 and a couple below .600. He's also had a pretty low BABIP despite a decent IsO, suggesting he's hitting a lot of balls hard at people. He might not magically improve, but his luck should improve. It's not like we're talking about Florimon. On the other hand, if he doesn't get his OPS over .800 by the end of the year, he's not a very good fit for a corner outfield job either. I project him at about .740 by the end of the year, which is fine for a good fielding center fielder (something he also needs to improve).

 

Given how both the manager and the front office routinely rip his intangibles, he's a prime candidate to get the Ben Revere treatment, assuming Buxton comes back this year and returns to form, at least in AA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I acknowledged he was younger. But you have more similarities than differences. Gomez didn't click until 25 or 26 with Milwaukee. His first year there he had an OPS of .655, then .679 before .768 at age 26. That was over 1,500 at bats under his belt.

 

Gomez's first year in Milwaukee didn't look good, that's for sure, but his second year was the beginnings of his power spike.

 

Outside of having some struggles early and ostensibly both being CFers, I don't think Gomez and Hicks are all that similar, no. Gomez was a consistent performer in the minors who was also consistently ranked on prospect lists, performed well defensively everywhere, and was regarded as rushed and underdeveloped (weight/strength-wise) his entire pro career. Again, he was traded at the same age Hicks is now for an established valuable MLB shortstop. Hicks' performance has been up and down his entire pro career, and outside of skipping AAA at age 23, he's never really been rushed, and I can't recall ever hearing any concerns about his physical development.

 

Moreover, while Gomez's development path was not unprecedented, it's not typical either. I always hate when people compare young players to Gomez or Hunter at the same age; sure, it suggests that sort of improvement is possible, but doesn't address if it is really probable.

 

By all logic, after his departure from the Twins, even with added strength, Gomez probably should have peaked as a 90 OPS+ speed/glove guy. That he greatly exceeded that is one of the joys and surprises of baseball. If Hicks massively improves from his current performance level, on both sides of the ball, it will be a surprise.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Give me about 30 seconds to do my own projection. Take current numbers and paste into excel. add the upcoming years. Copy and drag down. Hard key in and remove a stolen base from the 4 and 5 year number to appear I put thought into this.

 

I am guessing Gomez 2010 would look like:

 

.247 BA, 5 HR, 18 SB, .655 OPS

.247 BA, 5 HR, 18 SB, .655 OPS

.247 BA, 5 HR, 18 SB, .655 OPS

.247 BA, 5 HR, 17 SB, .655 OPS

.247 BA, 5 HR, 16 SB, .655 OPS

 

Spot on to his actual results.

 

As much as batting average can be overrated sometimes, not many MLB hitters have sustained marks under .200 for as long as Hicks unless they are cooked (or just not capable in the first place).

 

To continue with the cooking analogy, I guess you could argue that Hicks is still "raw" but he's not real young. Gomez was raw but he still consistently hit around .250 over a large (albeit somewhat spotted) sample before his breakthrough -- I think it's easier to project adding strength/power onto that and getting a decent player. Hicks is batting .194 so far -- he has to make some adjustments just to stay in MLB at this point, much less warrant any projections above that.

 

That said, I wouldn't give up on him. Unless he came back looking like Mike Trout this spring, I'd have started him in AAA this year. Maybe a little late for that now? I'd trade him for JJ Hardy circa 2010 in a heartbeat, though, faster than I would have Gomez.

[LaBombo]

I've said all along he may as well play out the year. That was my point - there is no disagreement there, I am not "giving up" on him, etc.

 

Now, I do doubt he can hit. I certainly would not assume he will dramatically improve, because we should rarely, if ever, assume that for any player.

Yep. There is no contradiction in thinking Hicks should play every day and doubting that he'll turn the corner.

 

Something I don't think has been mentioned is that Hicks' sole offensive skill, drawing walks, is the most dependent on how pitchers pitch to him. At some point it would seem that opposing pitchers will pitch him more aggressively if he can't push his average much above .200 and drive the ball more. It's amazed me that he's been able to sustain his walk rate this long with such a low average.

 

Another factor in his development ceiling is that, going back to the pre-internet Bill James era, drawing walks has been known as an 'old man' skill, tending to develop later than other skills but lasting later into hitters' careers.

 

So while it's great that Hicks has already shown that skill, it's one area that you'd normally expect improvement in a hitter in the second half of his 20's, but one in which Hicks may not improve much, unless a power surge forces pitchers to pitch him more carefully.

 

With respect to Gomez, the Twins didn't give up on him, but based on what they got (a very good player, but a devalued one coming off of injuries and a bad season), it's likely that they gave up on him becoming what they thought they were getting for Santana.

 

And that was apparently due to a choice of internal scouting over very basic statistical analysis. In 2009, Gomez made significant improvements to his K and BB rates, the two biggest concerns with his offense, yet saw his average fall 30 points off of a 45 point drop in BABIP. His 'reward' was demotion to the bench.

[stringer bell]

The Hardy/Gomez trade would have been a win all around had the Twins not, you know, traded Hardy for a faulty 96mph pitching machine.

That is "batting practice" machine.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That is "batting practice" machine.

 

Batting practice machines don't usually throw 96mph, nor do they have a decent chance of taking off the batter's head with errant throws.

[LaBombo]

Batting practice machines don't usually throw 96mph, nor do they have a decent chance of taking off the batter's head with errant throws.

So Hoey did have one above-average ability, at least. Possible use as warmup intimidation tool...

 

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