Giving credit to LEN3 for calling Twins to account on CF situation

[TheLeviathan]

I'm fully aware it's early for Hicks, I don't want to write him off and I don't think he should be written off for the future.

 

I am, however, completely in the "worried" camp. One can be worried without giving up hope. Hicks badly needs a come to jesus talk and a demotion to AAA. The kid has a mountain of stuff to work on and taking some pressure off him while he does so is imperative.

 

And this scenario should not be a shock for the Twins. That they walked into the season with the horrific options they did behind him is 100% a fair indictment. Nick said as much in a blog post right before the season and we had a line of pitchforks and torches calling him a pessimist. (A completely ridiculous preseason trend we saw far too often) And now here we are - in reality where many of us were trying to pull some people back to - with a huge problem.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm fully aware it's early for Hicks, I don't want to write him off and I don't think he should be written off for the future.

 

I am, however, completely in the "worried" camp. One can be worried without giving up hope. Hicks badly needs a come to jesus talk and a demotion to AAA. The kid has a mountain of stuff to work on and taking some pressure off him while he does so is imperative.

 

Agreed fully. I was never a big fan of Hicks getting the call out of Spring Training in the first place but I can't fault the team too much for aggressively pushing for roster turnover in an attempt to right the ship.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Nick said as much in a blog post right before the season and we had a line of pitchforks and torches calling him a pessimist. (A completely ridiculous preseason trend we saw far too often)

 

That's painting a pretty one-sided picture of things. There were just as many pessimists who were wrong about what the team would do with Gibson and Pinto as there were homers who defended the front office at every turn.

 

There are plenty of dumb opinions and comments from both sides of the coin. Let's not play up one side and ignore the other.

[Mike Sixel]

To me, the issue wasn't having Hicks up, the issue was the backup plan (or lack thereof), given his level of success last year. I am glad they gave Hicks another shot. I am hopeful that at some point, everyone will say "you know, it couldn't hurt to try only batting RH", and that he figures things out. But my skepticism is growing. And while I don't get to watch games anymore, I read the comments here on his fielding every day, and those are not exactly glowing (6 years into his professional career, for a guy that is supposed to be an above average fielder).

[Mike Sixel]

That's painting a pretty one-sided picture of things. There were just as many pessimists who were wrong about what the team would do with Gibson and Pinto as there were homers who defended the front office at every turn.

 

There are plenty of dumb opinions and comments from both sides of the coin. Let's not play up one side and ignore the other.

 

I admit many of my opinions on this site are dumb at time.

[TheLeviathan]

Agreed fully. I was never a big fan of Hicks getting the call out of Spring Training in the first place but I can't fault the team too much for aggressively pushing for roster turnover in an attempt to right the ship.

 

You can still have a plan B and create turnover in the roster. They could've picked up Bonafacio. Or Chris Coghlan. Or Torres. Or Chris Young. Are they sexy options? No, but they're also not nothing, aka Kenny Wilson.

 

I don't fault the Twins for having Hicks start opening day. I fault them for not recognizing the clear need for a Plan B or having been dumb enough to convince themselves all the way through March that they already had Plan B on the roster. Either way you cut it, it was a forseeable and enormous screw-up.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I admit many of my opinions on this site are dumb at time.

 

As are mine. I've had some real whoppers over the years. We all have... It's part of the game.

[TheLeviathan]

That's painting a pretty one-sided picture of things. There were just as many pessimists who were wrong about what the team would do with Gibson and Pinto as there were homers who defended the front office at every turn.

 

There are plenty of dumb opinions and comments from both sides of the coin. Let's not play up one side and ignore the other.

 

The difference is that those predictions were about projections. Saying "This team has zero depth against much of anything bad happening" isn't a projection. It's an analysis. One that isn't really pessimistic/optimistic. The line to cry out against it showed how deep people wanted to defend in that they defended the indefensible.

[Mike Sixel]

As are mine. I've had some real whoppers over the years. We all have... It's part of the game.

 

Can I just say, that I appreciate Brock and I can disagree civilly on this thread? No one is name calling here at all. Apologies to anyone that is bored with our back and forth, but I enjoy "talking" to Brock on this site.

[Craig Arko]

As are mine. I've had some real whoppers over the years. We all have... It's part of the game.

 

I think you're right. It's time to find a better game to play.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The difference is that those predictions were about projections. Saying "This team has zero depth against much of anything bad happening" isn't a projection. It's an analysis. One that isn't really pessimistic/optimistic. The line to cry out against it showed how deep people wanted to defend in that they defended the indefensible.

 

There were also outcries over how the Twins had no depth at catcher. That was analysis... wrong analysis.

 

Just because it's analysis doesn't mean it's right. Yeah, the Twins could have done something about centerfield. Honestly, I don't really care that they didn't... It required a few things to go wrong for this to be a real problem. Hicks had to fall on his face again. Buxton had to get injured, preventing any kind of "one month patch" to bridge over to him at center. And, at the end of the day, Sam Fuld has played pretty well.

 

On the other hand, shortstop. THAT is the one glaring "what the &^%$ are you thinking?" offseason move, IMO.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Can I just say, that I appreciate Brock and I can disagree civilly on this thread? No one is name calling here at all. Apologies to anyone that is bored with our back and forth, but I enjoy "talking" to Brock on this site.

 

Yep. I always enjoy disagreeing with you, Mike.

[TheLeviathan]

It required a few things to go wrong for this to be a real problem. Hicks had to fall on his face again. Buxton had to get injured, preventing any kind of "one month patch" to bridge over to him at center. And, at the end of the day, Sam Fuld has played pretty well.

 

What is going on in this paragraph? It's honestly not coherent Brock. What "few things" had to go wrong? Hicks to fall down on his face after...falling down on his face all of last year? Ok, there's one very easy to predict thing I guess. After that are you suggesting Buxton was Plan B? I'm not sure even your most optimistic of fan would think that was any part of the equation. Buxton being hurt had absolutely no bearing on the MLB CF position for this year. Next year? Ok, I could see it. This year? His injury hurts the future but has nothing to do with the present.

 

The last part is an example of a dumb stroke of luck that a semi-servicable player was cut just when they needed it.

 

So, to recap...one thing went wrong....and it was hardly shocking. Everything else is on the Twins for not adding anyone as a viable Plan B or convincing themselves until March that Presley/Mastro was sufficient.

[LaBombo]

It amazes me how little patience people show with prospects. Haven't we been through this a dozen times already? Was Morneau no longer an elite prospect because he OPSed at .650 in his rookie season? What about Cuddyer? What about Kubel? What about Hunter? What about Santana?

Morneau's 'rookie season' was about 100 AB's. He OPSed nearly .900 the following year. Cuddyer became a respectable hitter almost immediately, though it took the Twins several years to catch on to that fact. Kubel needed only a half season to shake off the rust of a year lost to injury before he started to hit. It took Santana only 130 innings until he began to pitch at a Cy Young level.

 

There's a difference between pronouncing a prospect a failure and not according him elite status after seeing issues in their game at the major league level. Gibson, Arcia, and Hicks should all be given every chance to prove they belong in the majors, but they're not in the same conversation as Buxton, Meyer, and Sano.

[Brock Beauchamp]

What is going on in this paragraph? It's honestly not coherent Brock. What "few things" had to go wrong? Hicks to fall down on his face after...falling down on his face all of last year? Ok, there's one very easy to predict thing I guess. After that are you suggesting Buxton was Plan B? I'm not sure even your most optimistic of fan would think that was any part of the equation. Buxton being hurt had absolutely no bearing on the MLB CF position for this year. Next year? Ok, I could see it. This year? His injury hurts the future but has nothing to do with the present.

 

The last part is an example of a dumb stroke of luck that a semi-servicable player was cut just when they needed it.

 

So, to recap...one thing went wrong....and it was hardly shocking. Everything else is on the Twins for not adding anyone as a viable Plan B or convincing themselves until March that Presley/Mastro was sufficient.

 

My point is that sometimes, you need to just rely on prospects and say "you're our guy this season" and hope it works out. If that player completely collapses, well... then you know you can't rely on him anymore.

 

To me, I don't care if the Twins run out Sam Fuld, Darin Mastroianni, or Alex Presley if Hicks bombs out. They're all bad players and no good player would have signed with a team that wants to see Hicks and Buxton succeed and replace them.

[Brock Beauchamp]

There's a difference between pronouncing a prospect a failure and not according him elite status after seeing issues in their game at the major league level. Gibson, Arcia, and Hicks should all be given every chance to prove they belong in the majors, but they're not in the same conversation as Buxton, Meyer, and Sano.

 

We're talking past each other. I see that now... When I said "elite", I was mainly referring to Meyer, who we will almost surely see later this season. Arcia is tough to categorize. He's a very good prospect. Elite? Dunno. He's on the line.

 

Gibson and Hicks never were elite. They're in the "very good" part of that sentence.

[LaBombo]

No, but they're also not nothing, aka Kenny Wilson.

Kenny Wilson's mom dislikes this post, and thinks TheLeviathan owes her a steak dinner.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think it's really Bartlett's place on the 25-Man roster that can be pointed to as the source to all the CF problems.

If the Twins picked Presley over Bartlett, then we probably still have Presley/Mastro/Hicks in the system.

Instead we have Fuld/Hicks/Kenny Wilson - only two of those have any business on the major league club. If Hicks is out for any significant time, it just stretches everything more.

I will say that I think I'd rather have Fuld as the 4th outfielder than either Presley or Mastro. I think as a 2 for 1 deal, I'd rather have Presley and Mastro instead of just Fuld for depth and injury coverage.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm not sure what you expect from a AAA rotation. The Twins have one guy who looks to front the rotation soon, another guy who has shown enormous growth this season and could slot in as a #3 guy if he continues missing bats and minimizing walks, and then they have 2-3 guys who are fringe prospects.

 

That's a very good AAA rotation with depth.

 

Well, in that context, I agree, but on terms of scale, it's about one or two gold stars on the positive side of the front office ledger, which is where you brought it up. (And most of that is due to Meyer.)

 

This club's MLB rotation work has been about negative ten gold stars annually, it seems. Hard to make that up in AAA rotation depth, or interesting A-ball pitchers...

 

Also, wasn't the Rochester rotation comparable last year? I like the Meyer/May upside better but generally this kind of "very good AAA rotation with depth" gives you a competitive AAA club, not great MLB options (outside the top guy):

Gibson -> Meyer

Hendriks -> May

Albers -> Darnell (actually Darnell was there last year too)

Walters, Hernandez, etc -> Johnson, Pino, etc.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Also, wasn't the Rochester rotation comparable last year? I like the Meyer/May upside better but generally this kind of "very good AAA rotation with depth" gives you a competitive AAA club, not great MLB options (outside the top guy):

Gibson -> Meyer

Hendriks -> May

Albers -> Darnell (actually Darnell was there last year too)

Walters, Hernandez, etc -> Johnson, Pino, etc.

 

Not even remotely comparable. Meyer is head-and-shoulders above anyone from last season and right now, May is looking better than Gibson did last season.

 

Last year, the Twins had one guy who projected as a decent MLB starter. This season they have one guy who looks elite and another guy who looks to be a decent MLB starter, possibly even a very good one if he keeps the walks down and continues striking out over 11 per 9.

 

Also, both of those guys are two years younger than Kyle Gibson was last season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I expect changes to occur, if you are one of the worst teams in the league for 3+ years. Big changes. In leadership. In strategy.

 

I think the FA SP signings were a bit of a change in strategy. And the early returns on it aren't very good, and if that continues, it could lead to a change in leadership. As loyal as ownership is, they won't be very excited about an $11 million lemon in Pelfrey, or even just an underwhelming Nolasco.

[LaBombo]

We're talking past each other. I see that now... When I said "elite", I was mainly referring to Meyer, who we will almost surely see later this season. Arcia is tough to categorize. He's a very good prospect. Elite? Dunno. He's on the line.

 

Gibson and Hicks never were elite. They're in the "very good" part of that sentence.

Fair enough. Still have high hopes for Arcia, but will be surprised if Hicks, and to a lesser extent Gibson, contribute significantly to a contending Twins team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Fair enough. Still have high hopes for Arcia, but will be surprised if Hicks, and to a lesser extent Gibson, contribute significantly to a contending Twins team.

 

I'm starting to doubt Hicks more every day. While Gibson's peripherals give me pause, I think he'll continue putting it together and improving as he gets more starts. I doubt he'll ever be great or maybe even good but he should be passable. The stuff is there, he just needs to trust it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Or maybe it just takes time to rebuild a minor league system.

 

Look at the Astros. Look at the Pirates. Look at Kansas City. It didn't take any of those teams three years to rebuild a system, it took them all 6+ years.

 

People forget the glacial pace at which baseball rebuilds happen. It takes a long time to build something in this sport and prospects don't arrive all at once, they arrive in batches over a 3-4 year period.

 

I thought the Twins already built the good minor league system? They're ranked #1 or 2, right? Building the MLB winner is the challenge, and I'm not seeing much from this front office that suggests they are capable of doing that (or even willing to do it, in some cases), sooner than the 6+ years it will take waiting for those minor leaguers to shake out, like back in the late 90's.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I thought the Twins already built the good minor league system? They're ranked #1 or 2, right? Building the MLB winner is the challenge, and I'm not seeing much from this front office that suggests they are capable of doing that (or even willing to do it, in some cases), sooner than the 6+ years it will take waiting for those minor leaguers to shake out, like back in the late 90's.

 

They've built the system but not all players are sitting in AA/AAA at once, waiting for the call-up. That part takes time. They've graduated the first wave to mixed results. Now it's time for the elite guys to step up and advance.

[Otto von Ballpark]

There were also outcries over how the Twins had no depth at catcher. That was analysis... wrong analysis.

 

I don't think this is accurate -- I don't think "catcher depth" was ever really a concern. Maybe before we signed Suzuki? After that, catcher quality was definitely a concern, especially with Suzuki starting or if Pinto had gone to AAA. (Which was still somewhat wrong, although we'll see how Suzuki's season plays out.)

 

Just having two guys who can approximate MLB catcher/backup catcher already has us above the 2010-2011 Twins in terms of catcher depth.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not even remotely comparable. Meyer is head-and-shoulders above anyone from last season and right now, May is looking better than Gibson did last season.

 

Last year, the Twins had one guy who projected as a decent MLB starter. This season they have one guy who looks elite and another guy who looks to be a decent MLB starter, possibly even a very good one if he keeps the walks down and continues striking out over 11 per 9.

 

Also, both of those guys are two years younger than Kyle Gibson was last season.

 

But you're not talking about the rotation now, you're talking about 1-2 guys. I like Meyer better than Gibson too, and I like May too (although I think you're reading a little much into his early season results?).

 

But the AAA rotation, overall, is pretty much the same as before. The Twins aren't the Atlanta Braves of recent vintage, with 4-5 legit SP prospects rounding out the AAA rotation. They've got 1-2 prospects on normal promotion schedules who you'd like to see in MLB at some point, and then a bunch of filler who can hopefully keep your AAA team competitive but you don't want to see too much at the MLB level. That's standard for AAA rotations rather than any special credit to the front office. (Although I liked both the Meyer/May trades, they were really just patches for years of bad luck and failure in SP drafting/development. We'd still just be waiting around for A-ball pitchers if it wasn't for those two.)

[SwainZag]

I don't think this is accurate -- I don't think "catcher depth" was ever really a concern. Maybe before we signed Suzuki? After that, catcher quality was definitely a concern, especially with Suzuki starting or if Pinto had gone to AAA. (Which was still somewhat wrong, although we'll see how Suzuki's season plays out.)

 

Just having two guys who can approximate MLB catcher/backup catcher already has us above the 2010-2011 Twins in terms of catcher depth.

 

Were you not around for the whole Ramos trade debacle? Everyone knew Mauer's time at catcher was limited. Butera was the backup with no options in site. Catcher depth was a frequent topic. I don't think that many people saw Pinto as the the next everyday catcher before last season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

They've built the system but not all players are sitting in AA/AAA at once, waiting for the call-up. That part takes time. They've graduated the first wave to mixed results. Now it's time for the elite guys to step up and advance.

 

That's the part that makes it take 6+ years, particularly if you're not willing or able to sign FA wisely.

[Brock Beauchamp]

But you're not talking about the rotation now, you're talking about 1-2 guys. I like Meyer better than Gibson too, and I like May too (although I think you're reading a little much into his early season results?).

 

But the AAA rotation, overall, is pretty much the same as before. The Twins aren't the Atlanta Braves of recent vintage, with 4-5 legit SP prospects rounding out the AAA rotation. They've got 1-2 prospects on normal promotion schedules who you'd like to see in MLB at some point, and then a bunch of filler who can hopefully keep your AAA team competitive but you don't want to see too much at the MLB level. That's standard for AAA rotations rather than any special credit to the front office. (Although I liked both the Meyer/May trades, they were really just patches for years of bad luck and failure in SP drafting/development. We'd still just be waiting around for A-ball pitchers if it wasn't for those two.)

 

I never said the rotation was full of MLB-quality players... AAA rotations are almost never full of MLB-quality players.

 

I said the rotation was very good, which it is. It has one impact guy, another guy who looks like he might become an impact guy, and then depth guys. That's what you want a AAA rotation to look like. A couple of guys on the brink of joining the MLB team and then fall-back options should MLB pitchers get injured.

 

The biggest flaw I see in the Twins' minor league rotation(s) right now is that there's really nothing at New Britain. They have a quality rotation in AAA and several solid prospects in the low minors but AA is pretty barren right now. I expect to see that change soon but it's not a perfect scenario.