My Budget-Friendly Blueprint to the Twins Offseason
Entry posted by ZachB in Offseason- ·
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I know everyone is starting to get a bit nervous, given the Twins' lack of activity this offseason. The season ended a month+ ago now, but I still feel it right to look over what I think the Twins should target this offseason. I'm gonna preface this by saying these are all ideas I think are realistic. I'm taking at face-value Falvey's comments on the TV-deal situation, and the idea that cutting costs is a goal (as much as us fans may disagree with it), thus most of these ideas are involve cheaper options or cutting money to spend it elsewhere.
1. Starting pitching help
This has to be the top priority of the FO going into the season. I agree with not resigning Gray and Maeda at the costs they went for, but it opens up holes that need to be filled. Right now we know the rotation projects to be Pablo, Joe Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Varland. In that I see 4 ? marks, Ober and Paddack have durability concerns, Joe Ryan desperately needs consistent secondaries and more sustained velocity, and Varland has yet to be an effective starter at the MLB level. The goal has to be to move Varland to the bullpen, thus I think we can get away with adding just one starter, but I think two would be ideal. I was frustrated with the twins lack of use of their second "long relief" guy they permanently rostered, and worst come to worst I'd be fine seeing a 6-man rotation when needed, maybe it helps keep guys fresh and healthy. I think there are a few good ways we could go about acquiring pitching, and I will also mention the classic twins method I'd expect to see if those preferable routes fail.
1a.. Add a high upside, high risk FA for relatively cheap
-If I were to pick one guy we should be targeting in all of free agency, it would be Frankie Montas. Coming off an injury, and limited success directly before that, he'll be as cheap as he ever will be. I think the concern about pitchers injury history is overblown. All pitchers get hurt, Montas doesn't concern me, he's got a giant frame and has sustained higher inning volume in the past, if there's mechanical issues I trust we can fix those. For those unfamiliar with his repertoire, Montas has a big fastball, and a great changeup. I think if he's just healthy he slots in right behind Pablo. I also think just like Pablo, he's some small tweaks with his breaking balls away from being elite elite. I love the risk:reward ratio here, and would love to see him added on 2--3+ yr deal.
1b. Trade for front end pitching
-There's a few guys rumored to be available, that should be definite targets of the twins, they're young, the have years of control, and they have big stuff. Those are the most important factors in my mind. Because of what I just mentioned they'll cost a hefty prospect package, and rightfully so, but if I'm the twins I'm open to trading anyone not named Emmanuel Rodriguez (I think his consensus value is more representative of his floor right now). These pitchers I'm referring to are in order of my preference: Jesus Luzardo (MIA), Logan Gilbert (SEA), Mitch Keller (PIT), Tarik Skubal (DET). I've seen rumors about all of these guys being available, but if I were to place bets, I'd bet against us actually acquiring any of these names.
-There's a next tier of pitchers that should be available, again young and thus cost-efficient, but a bit less proven and a bit less going on in the developed repertoire department. The names I'd be targeting in this group are Bryan Woo (SEA), Bryce Miller (SEA), Edward Cabrera (MIA), Trevor Rogers (MIA), Reid Detmers (LAA), Patrick Sandoval (LAA), Griffin Canning (LAA). The SEA guys will still take a pretty big prospect haul, but in general these guys are gonna be a bit cheaper to acquire. Again, these are all guys I'd project to slot in as our #2 currently, with realistic developmental potential to become a top-end starter.
1c. Add a more established FA
-There's a couple guys out there that I think are interesting for the twins, they maybe aren't quite as young, but these are good value, solid upside picks. There's only a few guys in here, none of them are particularly exciting, but it's better than 1d, which I'll get too shortly. The first two I'd highlight are LHPs, James Paxton and Sean Manaea, which I think is an organizational need, and they have real solid stuff, and are gonna be relatively affordable. I'd also look at Lucas Giolito, has had some good years, and there's still the potential to develop his breaking ball and get a bit more out of him. I think because of his past success, he'll still net a good contract, possibly pricing us out. All 3 of these guys, as I mentioned, aren't exciting, probably slotting in as 4-5 guys in our rotation, but that's just fine if it allows Varland to be the weapon we know he can be in the bullpen.
1d. The Twins special, add a washed up elder with a bad stuff profile
-This is what I fear will happen. The JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy type additions. We do it way too much and it always kills me, adding these older guys who don't throw hard and don't have any other out pitches left. It's a waste of money, and it's a waste of starts when we could get the same results from AAA guys at a fraction of the cost.
2. Add a Right Handed Bat
-I honestly don't care too much about what position they play, or if it comes from free agency or trade. I do think Hoskins will be too expensive for us realistically, but would love to see that addition. One guy I'd love to see us go after that almost makes too much sense, is Jo Adell (LAA). He's got a top prospect pedigree, has killed at AAA but struggled with production at the MLB level and injuries. He just can't crack consistent playing time with the angels, and I think a straight up trade for Trevor Larnach could be great for both sides as the angels need LHH. Baseballtradevalues.com calls this a fair trade, but I love Adell for us and would be willing to go even higher. He's a big time athlete, crazy power and can steal bases, he'd play every day against LHP, and if we can get him going he's got huge middle of the order potential. I think it'd be a great pickup with serios boom potential and almost no cost to us. As far as free agents go, Bader makes alot of sense, versatile, hits LHP, can play CF. If you're looking more for an impact bat, the guy that would be exiting to me would be Soler.
3. Trade Christian Vazquez
One of my gripes with this front office, is that they seem very slow to admit mistakes. I'd love to be proven wrong here and see them ship Vazquez off, but I doubt it happens. $20M for the next two years is just too much, he's not getting any younger, doesn't make hard contact, and we saw in the playoffs exactly where he fits into this roster...on the bench. There's a market out there for catchers, the Braves were able to move Max Stassi and his $7.5M within a day of getting him, and he's barely played this year. I'd trade Vazquez for no one, or even give up some low end prospect to give him off the books, but right now if the budget is what we're told, the $10M he's owed this year needs to be allotted to shoring up other weaknesses. I'm not sure what the Twins are gonna do, but it was interesting to see Jair Camargo get added to the 40-man, it gives me a bit of hope that they're at least trying to move Vazquez. FWIW Camargo's bat is electric, and he's gonna get a chance in the MLB some day with some team, would love for it to be here in a 70-30/60-40 type split with Jeffers this year.
4. Add Relief Help
Injuries happen, we have a good bullpen on paper right now, that is a fact, but there should always be a focus on adding depth. We have Duran, Jax and Stewart locked in to high leverage roles as long as they stay healthy, Alcala deserves a shot at that 6th inning-Emilio Pagan role, we forget too easily he's not far removed from being dominant in 2021. His stuff has been great in winter ball, and I think in a one-inning role (I'll revolt if they try and use him in a multi-inning role again coming off injury) he will be great. As mentioned before, it's yet to be seen what happens with Varland, but if he's in the pen, pencil him in for the Duran 2022-lite role, he'll face the best guys when they first come up in mid-late innings. As I said, real solid potential in the bullpen already, and I think there are a couple guys in the minors who could be difference makers too this year, Matt Canterino if he can stay healthy, and Ronny Henriquez, health abiding as well. But, as I said, depth does not hurt, guys in the bullpen will get hurt, it's just a fact. I wouldn't be looking to spend big money on the well known commodities, I'm looking at cheaper under the radar guys with big stuff, who could get a shot at a low leverage role and potentially run with it. There's a few guys I'll namedrop: Shintaro Fujinami, Codi Heuer, Josh Staumont, all of these guys could easily be DFA candidates by midseason, but they also have big time stuff and will be well worth the small risk of investment. The only two well-known names on the FA market that interest me are Jordan Hicks and Wandy Peralta, as I mentioned, I doubt we'll get either, but would be excited to see either in MPLS.
5, Don't give up on the young guys yet
Recency bias is strong, and I think in the case of Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff it's fair, they both were a bit (at the least) frustrating last year. I know both now have injury concerns, but the value their contracts provide is fantastic for a smaller market team looking to cut costs. I keep seeing bigger names thrown around on Twins Twitter for who we should sign in FA to play 1B/DH, but I think it would be perfectly wise to give that position to in house guys. For context Alex Kirilloff was rarely healthy last year, and he still put up an OPS+ of 117, that's a starting quality offensive player. I also think that's fair to assume is near his floor, his bat speed clearly wasn't what it was as a rookie last year, and he didn't provide a ton of pop, but I think there's legitimate potential to regain that bat speed/power and become the 30 HR guy he was projected to be coming up. The context for Miranda is simple, the guy has hit everywhere he went the 3 years prior to last year. Don't forget that every single one of us would have penciled him in happily as the 3/4/5 hitter in the opening day lineup this last year. Sure, his batted ball metrics were never great even in 2022, but he hit for contact and he hit for power, a combo that no one else on this team possesses to the level he did. One injury riddled season isn't indicative of his whole career, and I think he's earned plenty of shots to produce this next year. My point being, it is just too early to give up on these guys, and we've seen that when they're healthy they're just too good for AAA, that's why I do not think the 1B/DH position should be an offseason priority for this team, as the roster stands currently. Even behind Kirilloff and Miranda there's an in-house guy in Yunior Severino who is deserving of a shot at the MLB. Keep the Rhys Hoskins money and spend it on pitching and a right handed outfielder.
That's my TedTalk, let me know what you all think.
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