That's what I would do.  Ober, Lopez, Gray and then Ryan.

Ober, Lopez, Gray, Ryan with Maeda ready in Game 1.

I wouldn't drop Paddock. He could truly be a very important piece if they have to go to extra innings. Hate to drop Funderburk but IMO that would be a smarter play.

If Lopez and Gray can go on 3 days rest, I'd start them on Saturday and Sunday, then Ober and Ryan/Maeda. Come back with Lopez next Friday if needed, which would be the normal 4 days rest. Definitely Ober over Ryan in general however. Ryan just has not been as consistent.

I really think Ober has earned the right to start game #1.  Ryan has been far too shaky, that's obvious, but Ober has flat out earned it.  Lopez and Gray in games #2 & #3 and then a Ryan/Maeda game #4.  Ryan starts and maybe only goes 3 innings, possibly 4.  Maeda gives you 2 or 3 innings.  Finally, Lopez for game #5 if necessary.  

They have to keep Funderburk.  When you have KH hitters like Tucker & Alvarez you need a LH to face them.  You just can't go into a series with Houston with only ONE LH pitcher on your entire staff (much less the BP).  In this  scenario, I'm dropping Stevenson.  We will also have to deal with the Buxton speculation for this next round.  Did the last 3 days help him get any healthier?  I doubt it, but I'm sure the speculation will bubble up.

The starting pitching and bullpen has been outstanding so far but Houston, with hitters like Altuve, Bergman, Tucker, and Alvarez will be a challenge.  And McCormick and Diaz have been solid for them (and Brantley is back).  The Astro starting pitching hasn't been as dominant as in years past so hopefully our lineup hits better than the Toronto series.  Nice to have put them away in 2 games so the staff is as fresh as could be expected.  Nice to see that Rocco is using Stewart and Varland ahead of some of the shakier options he's had in the pen too.  

I was thinking about this before reading the post and came to the same conclusion for the rotation.

I could see them swapping Ryan and Ober if they don't want to give Ryan too much rest.  Given how they pitched down the stretch I would go with Ober though, which seems to have been their original plan had there been a game 3.

Maeda should be in play in any game if needed, but could potentially pitch in both game 1 and game 4 presuming that Rocco will be prepared to have a quick hook for both Ryan and Ober. 

Based on their previous decisions I think they would be more likely to drop Funderburk than Paddack, but there is actually a potential need for a second lefty specialist against Houston, who could be needed to navigate Tucker and Alvarez in the middle innings.  However, there is an argument for Paddack as well who has reverse splits over his career thanks to his very good changeup.  He would provide another upper 90s arm, while also being a sneaky option against the lefties.  I'm really torn on that one.

43 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

They have to keep Funderburk.  When you have KH hitters like Tucker & Alvarez you need a LH to face them.  You just can't go into a series with Houston with only ONE LH pitcher on your entire staff (much less the BP).  In this  scenario, I'm dropping Stevenson.  We will also have to deal with the Buxton speculation for this next round.  Did the last 3 days help him get any healthier?  I doubt it, but I'm sure the speculation will bubble up.

My initial reaction on Funderburk was similar, but upon thinking about it more, Paddack's best pitch is his changeup, and he has reverse splits for his career.  I could see him being a sneaky option against the lefties in the middle innings.  For that matter, Varland also has reverse splits so far in his career, and his changeup was his most effective pitch as an MLB starter (though it's a short track record).  As a reliever he's gone more to the cutter and I'm not sure his changeup has quite the depth that Paddack's does, so I think Paddack would be more likely to be utilized in that way. That said, I could see roles for both Paddack and Funderburk.

For a 5 game series with two off days, 12 pitchers is still a lot, and 13 would definitely be overkill, so I think Stevenson stays on the roster, and I think there will be pinch running situations in the ALDS.

I really don't know who I want to drop out of the bullpen though.  Funderburk seems like the most likely based on how this team usually values experience for these decisions.  I'm not sure Varland's spot is actually totally safe either, even though he seemed to be the 5th option in the wildcard round, they might make a different decision matching up against Houston.  It's a very tough call to me.

15 hours ago, SF Twins Fan said:

That's what I would do.  Ober, Lopez, Gray and then Ryan.

I second this.

I know Maeda has pitched out of the BP in playoffs before and I know he accepts that role if need be but I just feel like he has pitched just as good, if not better than both Ober and Ryan (no, I didn't go check the numbers so maybe my "feels" are wrong) and I really like experience in the playoffs.  I DO NOT like Ryan game one.  I do like Lopez vs Houston #2 and Gray vs Houston #3 - I'd love to see Ober, Lopez, Gray, Maeda and have Ryan and Paddock as long relief if anything goes sideways.

A few comments.  Joe Ryan was shelled in his May start against Houston, but that wasn't long after his first start against Houston where he had 10 K's.  ERA looked bad due to a Grand Slam, but overall he was really good.  Houston seeing him a 2nd time in short order probably helped them pick things up.  Now a third time in a season might be bad, but the layoff might be long enough to negate that.

Maeda has a slightly better track record against Houston, but not by much.

Ober hasn't faced Houston this year, but has not done well against them.

I think I'd go with Joe Ryan in game 1, but have him on a short leash and bring in Maeda if he blows up early.  Louie Varland has been fantastic against Houston.

I think Game 4 is the real question.  There I think I would piggyback Maeda/Ober.

The roster is the question.  Looking things up, Tucker has mashed righties and lefties about the same this year and in his career.  Alvaraz has even splits in his career, but has been super great against righties this year.  You also have most of the bullpen with moderate success against the two of them.  Combined the two of them are 0-5 against Jax, 1-6 against Pagan, 0-5 against Varland.  Tucker is 0-3 against Paddack.  Neither player has ever seen Brock Stewart.  With all of that and Thielbar, I think you could leave Funderburk off the roster.

In the euphoria of the Wild Card series, I am close to unwilling to go against Rocco.  He sees the same basic stats as we do but was going with Joe Ryan for a possible Game 3, so I am going to trust that he knows something.  Maybe two good innings from Ryan and then work some magic from the bullpen. Lolol.

I agree with everything with the exception that I would go Maeda  for 5, Ryan 2, Stewart, Duran in game 4. I like Ryan a lot but can’t ignore that he’s been pretty shaky for a while.

But Ober, Lopez, Gray is great!

17 hours ago, ashbury said:

In the euphoria of the Wild Card series, I am close to unwilling to go against Rocco.  He sees the same basic stats as we do but was going with Joe Ryan for a possible Game 3, so I am going to trust that he knows something.  Maybe two good innings from Ryan and then work some magic from the bullpen. Lolol.

I think the knowing something was that this was the plan all along.  Ober knew this when he started the last regular season game and when he was left off the roster.  Ober has been working his Astros game plan for a week. 

The analytics says Ober instead of Ryan in Game 1 was cute but Ryan was/is the better pitcher and at the end of the day analytics don't get hitters out, pitchers do.  Dumb move.

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

The analytics says Ober instead of Ryan in Game 1 was cute but Ryan was/is the better pitcher and at the end of the day analytics don't get hitters out, pitchers do.  Dumb move.

 

Disagree, politely.

Ober is a strong pitcher. He missed twice. Maybe if Ober is left in for two more innings you get the usual Ober, 5 innings giving up 3 runs. Houston has terrific hitters and their best are Altuve and Alvarez.

If you are watching all of the games or just watching the Orioles-Rangers game today (Sunday), you saw Montgomery chased after 4+ innings having given up 5 runs and the fantastic Baltimore rookie, Grayson Rodriguez was roughed up for 5 runs in 1 and 2/3 of pitching. Maybe you watched Kershaw get torched last night.

No, Ober was the right choice. The Astros are going to get their hits. It will take superb performances from Lopez and Gray to hold them down. If the Twins are going to win, the bats will need to step forward against Houston.

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Disagree, politely.

Ober is a strong pitcher. He missed twice. Maybe if Ober is left in for two more innings you get the usual Ober, 5 innings giving up 3 runs. Houston has terrific hitters and their best are Altuve and Alvarez.

If you are watching all of the games or just watching the Orioles-Rangers game today (Sunday), you saw Montgomery chased after 4+ innings having given up 5 runs and the fantastic Baltimore rookie, Grayson Rodriguez was roughed up for 5 runs in 1 and 2/3 of pitching. Maybe you watched Kershaw get torched last night.

No, Ober was the right choice. The Astros are going to get their hits. It will take superb performances from Lopez and Gray to hold them down. If the Twins are going to win, the bats will need to step forward against Houston.

Ryan is the better pitcher.  He won more games, started more games, pitched more innings, had more strikeouts, had more strikeouts/walks.  And to be honest I don't really care what happened in other games.

1 minute ago, dxpavelka said:

Ryan is the better pitcher.  He won more games, started more games, pitched more innings, had more strikeouts, had more strikeouts/walks.  And to be honest I don't really care what happened in other games.

No problem. I like Ryan too, quite a bit. In fact, I can agree that Ryan is a better pitcher in the big picture than Ober. I just agree with the decision to start Ober in Houston because Minute Made Park is a band box and punishes fly ball pitchers badly which is exactly Joe Ryan. I expect Ryan to win Game 4 on Wednesday.

As far as other games, I get that many folks on Twins Daily are Twins fans and not necessarily hardcore baseball fans, but the games do tell a story of how difficult it is to be a successful baseball player. Success or failure can be just a couple of pitches.

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

No problem. I like Ryan too, quite a bit. In fact, I can agree that Ryan is a better pitcher in the big picture than Ober. I just agree with the decision to start Ober in Houston because Minute Made Park is a band box and punishes fly ball pitchers badly which is exactly Joe Ryan. I expect Ryan to win Game 4 on Wednesday.

As far as other games, I get that many folks on Twins Daily are Twins fans and not necessarily hardcore baseball fans, but the games do tell a story of how difficult it is to be a successful baseball player. Success or failure can be just a couple of pitches.

Ryan gives up 1.8 HR/9 and Ober gives up 1.4 HR/9.  Throw in Saturday and that disparity is a little less.  I believe it was a man we've all heard from a LOT over the past five decades who will attest to the fact that giving up HRs is also not that big of a deal if you don't walk batters ahead of them and actually the two of them give up the fewest BB/9 of the top dozen pitchers on the staff.  Bottom line for me was the Ryan is the better pitcher in the big picture.

3 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Ryan gives up 1.8 HR/9 and Ober gives up 1.4 HR/9.  Throw in Saturday and that disparity is a little less.  I believe it was a man we've all heard from a LOT over the past five decades who will attest to the fact that giving up HRs is also not that big of a deal if you don't walk batters ahead of them and actually the two of them give up the fewest BB/9 of the top dozen pitchers on the staff.  Bottom line for me was the Ryan is the better pitcher in the big picture.

 

Curious what you are looking at that makes you think Ryan is definitively better.  Personally I think it's very close, and there aren't really any stats where Ryan has vastly outperformed for his MLB career, and several where Ober has a slight edge.

Ryan throws a little harder with the fastball, and I would say it has gotten slightly better results, but Ober's fastball has also been pretty effective for him, and thus far, his secondaries have been more consistently good than Ryan's. 

Ryan might be better, but so far I don't really see anything that makes a clear case for that.

I think the starter order is lining up pretty well for the twins. Ober struggled a bit in game 1 and Maeda didn't lock it down behind him, but with Lopez crushing it the twins are now looking at Gray in game 3 at home, Ryan in Game 4 at home, and Lopez ready to go back to Houston on regular rest if needed. But that scenario also means that if Gray and Ryan kick butt (along with the offense providing the juice), we could have Lopez lined up to go game 1 in the ALCS too, which would certainly be ideal.

Didn't quite work out with Ober in game 1, but we're still in a good place, and it was a more than reasonable decision. And no shame in getting beat by Alvarez; that dude is a beast. Might be time to just say "we ain't pitching to you" with him, even with Lopez doing great in the matchup. the bottom half of the Astros lineup just isn't as scary as it used to be, and they really need Alvarez, Altuve, Bregman, and Tucker to carry them

8 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

Curious what you are looking at that makes you think Ryan is definitively better.  Personally I think it's very close, and there aren't really any stats where Ryan has vastly outperformed for his MLB career, and several where Ober has a slight edge.

Ryan throws a little harder with the fastball, and I would say it has gotten slightly better results, but Ober's fastball has also been pretty effective for him, and thus far, his secondaries have been more consistently good than Ryan's. 

Ryan might be better, but so far I don't really see anything that makes a clear case for that.

The only place I'd give Ober the edge is in allowing the big fly and it's not that different.  I grew up watching Bert serve up a ton of them but if you limit walks and keep runners off base I don't mind seeing the occasional gopher ball.  They gave Ryan the ball on opening day last year and Ober was in St. Paul on opening day this year both of which tell me that they see the bulldog in Ryan, the guy who responds to big moments just a little better.  I think they out cuted themselves by going with Ober.

17 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

The only place I'd give Ober the edge is in allowing the big fly and it's not that different.  I grew up watching Bert serve up a ton of them but if you limit walks and keep runners off base I don't mind seeing the occasional gopher ball.  They gave Ryan the ball on opening day last year and Ober was in St. Paul on opening day this year both of which tell me that they see the bulldog in Ryan, the guy who responds to big moments just a little better.  I think they out cuted themselves by going with Ober.

 

 

Ryan/Ober Thursday 

Lopez Saturday

But I haven't even checked to see if Ryan made the cut 🙃

5 hours ago, saviking said:

Ryan/Ober Thursday 

Lopez Saturday

But I haven't even checked to see if Ryan made the cut 🙃

Ryan made the cut but Ober just gave up a blast in the 9th TODAY so I guess that shoots that. 

14 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Ryan made the cut but Ober just gave up a blast in the 9th TODAY so I guess that shoots that. 

 

With an off day between games, I imagine they will have a quick hook with Ryan and empty the bullpen. I was surprised they wasted Jax on a lost cause .. Losing 9-1 no different than losing 2-1 .. On to the next game ..

3 hours ago, saviking said:

 I was surprised they wasted Jax on a lost cause ..

He achieved two quick outs, expending 9 pitches.  I would expect him to be available again today if the need (hopefully!) arises to protect a lead.