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CoryMoen

Entry posted by CoryMoen in Twins ·

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I’ve decided to write a series of posts regarding the depth in the Twins system, or possibly lack thereof depending on how you feel about a particular position. I plan to go position by position in hopes to shed some light on who could make an impact as early as 2023, or who may make an impact within a few years. I was inspired by Nick Nelson’s posts regarding the major league team, but didn’t want to duplicate what he did, so I will only be writing about the guys not on the 40-man roster, because Nick has done a great job analyzing the position at the major league level.

I started with catchers and now am on to 1st baseman. I used Roster Resource’s depth chart, which can be found on FanGraphs. Here is a note on each player listed under 1st base in the Twins system not on the 40-man roster. I’ll list how they were acquired and what level I expect them to play at most this coming season.

  1. Tyler White
    Acquired: Free Agency, Dec 2022
    Level: AAA

The Twins signed White to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. He has gotten a decent amount of playing time this Spring, playing in 15 games. White has experience in part of 4 seasons with the Astros and Dodgers. He had pretty solid years for Houston in 2017-18 but his productivity has fallen off since, not having gotten into a major league game since 2019. He has played in the Toronot, Milwaukee and Atlanta farm systems at AAA over the past two seasons, having hit 29 HR over the past two years. At this point, White is a depth option who may get some at bats but is likely a depth piece at this point in his career.

  1. Chris Williams
    Acquired: Draft – 8th round – 2018
    Level: AAA

Williams was drafted in 2018 after a solid college career at Clemson. He’s slowly climbed the organizational ladder since being drafted, most recently playing in Wichita and St. Paul in 2022. He’s played mostly 1st base in the minor leagues, but has played some catcher at all levels as well as a handful of games in the corner outfield in 2022 as well. This past year, he tapped into a bit more power hitting 28 home runs between AA and AAA. His power appears to be what will carry him to the majors so keeping an eye on the power numbers this year will be key. Listed at 5’11” and 225 lbs, Williams isn’t a prototypical 1B, but if he can hit for power consistently, he can create a role for himself in the future.

  1. Dalton Kelly
    Acquired: Free Agency – 2023
    Level: AAA

Kelly was signed as a minor league Free Agent in February and you may have not even realized the transaction occurred. Kelly was a 38th round draft pick in the 2015 draft by the Seattle Mariners. Kelly also plays in the corner outfield, so there is a little more value than a guy who can solely play 1B. Kelly his a career .263/.369/.418 hitter in the minor leagues, so he walks at a decent rate and has a little power, but it would be described as far from elite. The past two years, he has tapped into a little more power, which is good for his game. He has hit 42 home runs over the past two years, and has 73 career minor league home runs. At this point, Kelly is a depth piece and if you see him in the majors this year, he either has blossomed late and force his way onto the roster, or there have been so many injuries that the Twins are in a really tough position. I don’t anticipate Kelly being a guy who contributes to the major league team this year due to the depth and other guys I would see being called up before him.

  1. Aaron Sabato
    Acquired: Draft – 1st round – 2020
    Level: AA

Sabato is the player on this list that you have probably seen the most reports on. Being drafted in the 1st round in 2020 with his power tool being his calling card, and then seeing him struggle to hit is likely frustrating to Twins fans. He is still playing his age 24 season in 2023, so he may end up not being considered a 1st-round bust if he can take strides this year and into the future. His minor league slash line of .209/.355/.424 is interesting because he is still walking at a decent rate (above 10% at every level thus far) , but needs to hit a bit more for Twins fans to feel better about his future on the team.  Sabato is at the bottom of the defensive spectrum so his hit tool will be what he depends on to make a career as a major leaguer. I do think he can carve out a future as a 1B/DH but not being able to play other positions will limit his upside in how valuable he will be.

  1. Alexander Pena
    Acquired: Amateur Free Agent, 2018
    Level: A

Pena signed as a minor league free agent in 2018 out of Venezuela at the age of 16. He has played in the Dominican Summer League and the Florida Complex League, so a jump up to A ball might be in the cards this year. He has hit well to this point with a slash of .301/.367/.439 so he still has some developing to do, but it appears it will be something to build off of going forward. Slightly cutting his strikeouts would be great, but that is common among young hitters adjusting to professional ball. I think Pena is a guy to keep an eye on, but he likely will not be knocking on the door for a few years, allowing time for him to develop a bit more as a hitter and see where he develops defensively as well. Pena has played more than 1st base, having played a few games at second, third, and even one game in the outfield in 2021. Seeing as it was a one-time thing, I doubt he will get a whole lot of reps in the outfield in the future.

 

Let me know if you think any of these guys are future pieces on a major league roster, or if you see them more as organizational depth. Some of these guys have real intrigue, but are any a future piece, either as a 1B or another position, or possibly as a Designated hitter?

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Doctor Gast

The list you gave is a list of players that are 1B/ DH only. But if you include players that are more athletic that can play a good 1B, they'd  place the players you listed on the bottom of 1B depth chart.

My depth chart is Kiriloff, Gallo, Miranda, Solange, Julien plus there are those we want their bats  in the line up. Arraez never had any 1B experience but because we wanted his bat in the line up he play a decent 1B, There are those more athletic than Arraez, like Lewis and Lee who can play an excellent 1B if they need ABs & 1B is open. After these I'd consider White, Williams, Kelly, Sabato & Perez.

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Byrdman

1B is the least worry some position. Easy to fill with almost anyone.  If you came with 0 prospects I would still have said the same thing.  Plus we have Alex Kirilloff, so we are fine, as he will be there as a all star for the next 10 years.

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gman

I look at depth as possible full time replacements if Kirilloff can't make it. Julian could be, maybe even Polanco might play some at first base to ease his injured ankle. I could see Wallner getting time at first base, at 6'4" and with his power, first base may be a very good position for him. He didn't seem athletic enough chasing down singles in the outfield last year, although he has a great arm and is apparently one of the fastest on the team. The team has quite a few future outfield prospects coming through.

Maybe try Buxton at first, keep his bat in the lineup and keep him from running into the outfield wall.😃

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jkcarew

Not great. You really would like not one, but two, legit power bats. One for first and one for DH. It's unclear whether the 2023 Twins have even one (when Buxton can play center). I do consider Gallo to still have that potential, so Larnach becomes a big piece...if he can function in Left, then Gallo can play more first.

I agree that Julien may become a legitimate option if his power continues to develop. And the immediate fall-back would seem to be Miranda...with Farmer playing more 3B.

Sabato is intriguing still simply because the power is there and the command of the strike zone is there. Just way too much swing-and-miss. I think he probably has to take a good step this summer, or...

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DocBauer

Not a lot of depth here to be sure. But that's OK as it remains the easiest position to convert someone to. And that's not to say it's not an important spot! Just easier to convert someone. 

And while this about non 40 man depth, simple perspective forces us to realize that 1B is OK short term for the Twins, and potentially excellent with Kirilloff and Miranda and Julien. I tend to agree with the Twins not working Wallner at the spot at this time. He runs very well for a big man, and has a cannon for an arm. Still, at some point, I could see a trial there just to increase versatility to get his bat in the lineup. He's always going to K a bunch. But he's shown he can hit for a decent average with a good OB at every level and continues to improve. 

White is for AAA and a possible emergency depth option.

Is Kelly even still around? He's not on the St Paul roster. 

Williams is intriguing. I had high hopes he might be a steal at catcher when he slipped in the draft after a shoulder injury that limited him his senior year. He's not getting any younger, but the bat doesn't look bad and he's got real power. I think he's role as a catcher at the ML level is as a #3 emergency option and his ticket is at 1B/DH. He's still only 26yo despite being a senior college draftee and missing 2020 due to covid. He broke through in 2022 at AA Wichita but struggled at AAA. If he can actually play a solid 1B and carry through on his AA performance last year to St Paul this year, he's got a shot. But it might not be with the Twins.

Sabato is a complete mystery. The power is for real. And the ability to take BB for a good OB is real, at the milb level. And I can live with high K numbers from a power bat who takes a bunch of BB. But at some point, he actually needs to HIT, otherwise AAA pitchers will just eat him up, not to mention ML arms. Despite being a #1 pick, I think he's done if 2023 doesn't show real signs of improvement. 

The one guy not mentioned here is Alex Isola. He's supposedly a catcher, and went to the AFL this past offseason, but he's spent as much time at 1B/DH as he has at catcher the past couple of seasons. He's the antithesis of Williams and Sabato in that the power is limited, but he's shown some HIT ability and decent OB without the huge K numbers. If the power develops, he might be a 1B option who can be that #3 catcher on a roster. But he's got to show more power, or he's just a solid hitting 1B, with no elite grade anywhere, even if he proves quality defensively. 

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Nick Nelson

Love this! Great way to build off the surface-level Position Analysis concept. Looking forward to more of these Cory.

First base is such a tough position to analyze & forecast cuz people often just randomly move there from other spots. (See: Luis Arraez.)

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CoryMoen
3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Love this! Great way to build off the surface-level Position Analysis concept. Looking forward to more of these Cory.

First base is such a tough position to analyze & forecast cuz people often just randomly move there from other spots. (See: Luis Arraez.)

Agreed, Nick! It's extremely difficult because if the bat is good enough, the coaches find a way to get you in the lineup, and if playing a position, it's 1st base! 

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CoryMoen
On 3/30/2023 at 8:51 AM, MABB1959 said:

Traditionally isn't first base a power hitter?

Traditionally, yes! But over the past few years, the Twins have shown that if the bat is good in other areas, they will try you there! Luis Arraez is a great example. 

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Bodie
On 3/30/2023 at 11:14 AM, gman said:

I look at depth as possible full time replacements if Kirilloff can't make it. Julian could be, maybe even Polanco might play some at first base to ease his injured ankle. I could see Wallner getting time at first base, at 6'4" and with his power, first base may be a very good position for him. He didn't seem athletic enough chasing down singles in the outfield last year, although he has a great arm and is apparently one of the fastest on the team. The team has quite a few future outfield prospects coming through.

Maybe try Buxton at first, keep his bat in the lineup and keep him from running into the outfield wall.😃

Interesting idea - seriously. (Buxton @1B)

At someplace like Oakland, with a lot of foul territory, he could have a 90% day off defensively, and still put that speed to use a couple of times a series.

Then all we'd have to worry about is him displacing a hip running into the dugout railing...

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Kipp35
On 3/28/2023 at 9:05 PM, tony&rodney said:

No depth is needed because Alex Kirilloff is soon to fulfill his promise as a star.

Trade pieces are always a good thing. I too am hoping that Alex makes a full recovery and can do what we all believe he can.

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