General politics

[Badsmerf]

Since I love starting political threads, I figured we need one to discuss random politics happenings not related to POTUS.

 

The first major elections since little Don was elected happened tonight. It doesn't say too much, but it is perhaps a barometer for how the mid terms will go. Looks like a strong performance for dems, continuing a trend from special elections.

[Squirrel]

Northam wins VA and Murphy wins in NJ.

[ashbury]

North am Winstead I need VA

 

Hic! Friends don't let friends post impaired.

[Squirrel]

 

Hic! Friends don't let friends post impaired.

Yeah, sadly that wasn’t it. My iPad is possessed.

[ashbury]

Yeah, sadly that wasn’t it. My iPad is possessed.

Auto-correct is a hell of a drug.

[Squirrel]

Auto-correct is a hell of a drug.

It wasn’t auto-correct. Every once in a while the keypad goes berserk. And I reread before I post. It’s an old machine. But back to politics ... any other results of the day?

[drjim]

The turning of white educated voters. Quite the re-alignment we are seeing.

 

Will be interesting to see if Rs double down on their current agenda (such as it is) or if they put on the brakes and try to re-claim this demographic. I don't think raising their taxes in the current tax bill is going to help.

 

Midterms are really shaping up to be a wave.

[drjim]

The dear leader weighs in...

 

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/928074747316928513

[ashbury]

It wasn’t auto-correct. Every once in a while the keypad goes berserk. And I reread before I post. It’s an old machine. But back to politics ... any other results of the day?

Looks like the Virginia legislature is unexpectedly in play, with the trans candidate Danica Roem winning against the anti-LGBTQ firebrand in that district.

[Squirrel]

Looks like the Virginia legislature is unexpectedly in play, with the trans candidate Danica Roem winning against the anti-LGTBQ firebrand in that district.

Sounds like she led a smart campaign. Good old fashioned ground work and door knocking combined with the modern and a strong presence on social media, against an aging, out-of-step incumbent who proclaimed himself ‘chief homophobe’ who took for granted he’d just win again.

[Squirrel]

I’ll miss the Christie memes:

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

St. Paul elects first black mayor.

[drjim]

St. Paul elects first black mayor.

Winning outright was quite the surprise. Young guy too.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Winning outright was quite the surprise. Young guy too.

I'm not sure how different he will be from Harris, but I hope he does well.

[Champuckett]

Based on last nights results, what are the odds this will translate into similar results for the 2018 elections? Are both major political parties hurt since the 2016 election or is one hurt more than the other? Is this the end of the Republican Party? Is this the beginning of a Democrat surge to retake the Congress and eventually the White House in 2020?

[drjim]

 

Based on last nights results, what are the odds this will translate into similar results for the 2018 elections? Are both major political parties hurt since the 2016 election or is one hurt more than the other? Is this the end of the Republican Party? Is this the beginning of a Democrat surge to retake the Congress and eventually the White House in 2020?

 

Probably a result to be expected considering the fundamentals. An unpopular President, a generic Congressional ballot that is about +10 D right now. You probably have motivated Dems, Moderates who don't like Trump, and demoralized Rs, since they haven't really passed any legislation of note.

 

A lot can happen in a year (or 3 before the Presidential election), but it is shaping up to be a midterm Dem wave that would retake Congress. Remains to be seen if they can translate that down to Governor and state legislative races too.

 

The big shift you are seeing is suburbs and college educated whites shifting strongly to Dems all over the country. These are groups that vote in higher percentages in off Presidential years. There truly is a shift in the party compositions, will remain to be seen if this is permanent. Seems possible, as the main fault line in politics right now seems to be immigration.

[drjim]

 

I'm not sure how different he will be from Harris, but I hope he does well.

 

I don't know either, I was pretty fine with either winning. Carter certainly represents a shift in the city. I live and work here, and I have been served well, but I know that is not the case for too many residents.

[Badsmerf]

This is shaping up to be a wave next year, from what I'm reading and hearing. The Virginia State House looks to be split now, first time in 20 years. Consistent stronger than normal Democrat support nationwide. Republicans are retiring which will lead to more Bannon candidates winning primaries and losing general elections.

 

Seems like history is repeating itself, except flipped from the outcome of 2008. However, I feel the fuel for the momentum comes from different places. Trump is a convenient scape goat right now, but the economic message by the democrats still needs refined.

[Squirrel]

 

This is shaping up to be a wave next year, from what I'm reading and hearing. The Virginia State House looks to be split now, first time in 20 years. Consistent stronger than normal Democrat support nationwide. Republicans are retiring which will lead to more Bannon candidates winning primaries and losing general elections.

Seems like history is repeating itself, except flipped from the outcome of 2008. However, I feel the fuel for the momentum comes from different places. Trump is a convenient scape goat right now, but the economic message by the democrats still needs refined.

I'm still wary, because of these three things: the economy, the economy and the economy. That has long been the thing that moves people to vote differently from election to election. There is still gerrymandering that will ensure, imo, that certain districts remain in Republican control. I'm not sure this wave is large enough to overcome that.

 

That said, what took place in Virginia, by all accounts a 'southern' state, does give me some hopeful pause.

[drjim]

 

I'm still wary, because of these three things: the economy, the economy and the economy. That has long been the thing that moves people to vote differently from election to election. There is still gerrymandering that will ensure, imo, that certain districts remain in Republican control. I'm not sure this wave is large enough to overcome that.

 

That said, what took place in Virginia, by all accounts a 'southern' state, does give me some hopeful pause.

 

On the other hand, if the economy starts to go sideways, it will shift from a wave to a bloodbath.

 

A solid economy is baked into the wave conditions we are currently witnessing. If that sputters a little, especially in the months leading up the election...

[Mike Sixel]

Gubernatorial races are not generally predictive of US House races. That said, the Virginia delegate race is somewhat. It is encouraging they could win in the face of this much gerrymandering....

[gunnarthor]

I think the Cook Political guru tweeted that he thinks the Dems have a better than even shot at winning the House next year. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Based on last nights results, what are the odds this will translate into similar results for the 2018 elections? Are both major political parties hurt since the 2016 election or is one hurt more than the other? Is this the end of the Republican Party? Is this the beginning of a Democrat surge to retake the Congress and eventually the White House in 2020?

I will add that these were local elections. In my opinion, Republicans will be better able to nationalize the 2018 election, in other words, run against Nancy Pelosi, Al Sharpton, et al. Those types of folks are red meat for the Republican base and will juice turnout.

[gunnarthor]

 

I will add that these were local elections. In my opinion, Republicans will be better able to nationalize the 2018 election, in other words, run against Nancy Pelosi, Al Sharpton, et al. Those types of folks are red meat for the Republican base and will juice turnout.

Maybe, maybe not. It's not like the GOP ignored red meat issues in Virginia. They went full Trump but the Dems wave was huge. 

[Squirrel]

 

Maybe, maybe not. It's not like the GOP ignored red meat issues in Virginia. They went full Trump but the Dems wave was huge. 

This is what gives me some hopeful pause ... that the Dems did so well ... in Virginia.

[Badsmerf]

I will add that these were local elections. In my opinion, Republicans will be better able to nationalize the 2018 election, in other words, run against Nancy Pelosi, Al Sharpton, et al. Those types of folks are red meat for the Republican base and will juice turnout.

I really wish Nancy Pelosi had lost her speaker status. Running against Al Sharpton? That's like saying run against Rush Limbaugh. That isn't real, and is incredible weak.

 

Exit polls showed 2-1 were motivated to vote against Trump. I would expect that to normalize with larger sample sizes, but that is a really bad ratio for Trump and Republicans. Shows why he was kept at arms length in this election. His arrogance is going to sink republicans until after 2020.

[stringer bell]

Gerrymandering is a dam and a wave goes over the dam. It is totally possible that a wave can breach the dam and give unprepared incumbents their walking papers. It happened in the eighth district in MN (Oberstar) and could happen to anyone who has appeared safe for several elections. Republicans know they are in for a tough time, so they will try to protect themselves. They are saddled by Trump, an even more unpopular Congress, and the reality that they have advanced further than they have a right to expect.

 

Democrats really need to sharpen their message if they want to retake Congress. I think vulnerable Republicans will be formidable unless there is a clear reason to vote for the opposition party. Down the ballot in the legislatures is where Democrats can steamroller Republicans and where it will really matter with redistricting coming up in four years. For example in Minnesota, we are almost guaranteed to lose a seat in Congress. If Republicans draw the lines, they will consolidate the core cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul into one super-blue Congressional District and make the other six lean more Republican. Granted, there are two general elections before lines are drawn, but if Democrats want some degree of equality, they need to make major gains a year from now. In addition, restricting voters in one fashion or another is a thing for Republicans and will only advance further unless Democrats take back legislatures and statehouses.

[Badsmerf]

How is the Supreme Court case going? Trump on the ballot in 2020 could be a really bad thing for Republicans. If the economy starts to stall it will be doomsday.

[jimmer]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-judge-nominee-36-who-has-never-tried-a-case-wins-approval-of-senate-panel/ar-BBEOWih?li=BBnb7Kz

 

[Badsmerf]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-judge-nominee-36-who-has-never-tried-a-case-wins-approval-of-senate-panel/ar-BBEOWih?li=BBnb7Kz

NPR had a segment on this. Only 2 proposed judges ever had been declared unqualified prior to Trump. He has doubled that amount in less than a year. The tactics deployed by McConnell disgust me. This nominee disgusts me. How would you like to have this guy as your judge? I don't think many would be too excited about it. The party of Bush is no more.