Based on the historical comments on this site, I'm not sure Mauer would meet the 75% threshold if ONLY Twins fans voted for the HOF.
I absolutely expect him to get in, but I'm expecting it to take some time and I'm fully expecting TD to erupt in outraged indignity once the results are revealed showing Mauer still has a long way to go. I mean, the anger will be real, but will anyone really be surprised if he isn't behind East Coast favorite newbies Utley, Wright or even Jose Reyes? Or long time elite players like Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Holliday? That doesn't even include East Coast holdovers like Jimmy Rollins, Andy Pettitte and Carlos Beltran or the remaining steroid era players who still have their die-hard supporters. Add in the near-locks Beltre, Helton and Wagner and he's going to struggle to find room on most voters top-ten lists.
Carlos Beltran seems fairly similar to Mauer in terms of candidacy. They played premium defensive positions, had a fantastic peak of their careers, but didn't meet those 'counting stat' milestones. Beltran didn't even reach 50% of the votes last year and it was much weaker class. I think we should be hoping for something like 40% vote totals this year, but expect even less.
I'll happily eat crow if it turns out otherwise though.