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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    There's only a couple of offensive free agents I like, so if they don't get them, I guess I don't much care if they sign Kiermaier. However, the Twins are only in the position of sniffing free agent CFs because their presumptive CF is injury prone, and we're talking about a new guy who's regularly on the IL for long stretches. He's rarely good offensively, so I think when it's all said and done, if you're putting up Kiermaier vs. the in-house possibilities of Castro, Martin, Buxton, Kiersey or even Lewis, it's more likely than not that experimenting with the in-house options will yield the better results overall. But like I said, if they aren't going to get one of the few guys I like, go ahead and sign him. As long as he's back to a rotational player when one of the in-house options start to get unjustly crunched. I don't want to see this team pulling another Joey Gallo move and waste months trying to justify the signing of another fairly non-descript free agent.
  2. nicksaviking
    Pretty sure the idea would be to put him at 1B. I don't see any free agent CFs I want to hand a full-time starting job, and the pitchers who'd be willing to meet this club's demand of a two, maybe three year max deal I almost certainly won't want as Gray's replacement. So the only spots I'd look to make an impact in free agency, really would be 1B or corner OF. My requirements would be someone who has a track record of consistent above average offense and someone who is not a strikeout liability. Outside of the not-happening Cody Bellinger, Turner and Rhys Hoskins are really the only ones who meet what I want. I could go with Lourdes Gurriel, but I am disappointed in his on base skills. He doesn't strike out a ton and doesn't take a lot of pitches, so I suppose if he gets indoctrinated into the new Twins hitting approach, maybe he'd get on base more and still not have a strikeout issue. I'm going to put a mental pin in that one and think on that more. There's just not that much that excites me in free agency this year.
  3. nicksaviking
    I just don't want the rotation to be a downgrade from last year. Yamamoto would be great though unlikely. Montgomery could be close to a push. Rodriguez and Wacha seem more like the Ober/Ryan/Paddock camp than they do Gray, so I don't want them. Despite your Correa optimism, and even if the payroll was 180M, I still think the years it would take to get Blake Snell would be a non-starter with this front office, especially since he's so inconsistent year-to-year. I also think his high BB% doesn't mesh with the makeup of the rotation and despite his talent, the club wouldn't have a ton of interest. Nola has been inconsistent, but healthy, I could see the club having more interest in him, but still, I think the years it would take to get him will be a turn off. All that said, Montgomery or the return of Gray seem like the ONLY real options to meet what the FO wants in a pitcher, AND to keep the rotation status quo from last year. As both pitchers will have lots of suitors, it just seems unlikely, and the front office would go back to the avenue where they've had better success, that being trading for starters. Four out of six is a pretty solid rate as far as these things go. Another young and controllable pitcher, and I'd pay a lot for a good one. Getting a young stud in his early to mid 20s would be better than signing any free agent arm outside of Yamamoto, even if you give up equity to get him.
  4. nicksaviking
    I think we're looking at the wrong position here. They've never given a big multi year contract to a starting pitcher, I can't imagine they'll do that now. Odorizzi, Maeda, Paddock, Gray, Mahle, Lopez. They trade for one pretty much every single year, and out side of Gray, they tend to be on their first contracts and dirt cheap. We probably should assume that's the game plan again this year. Going with that thought, they don't have roster room for too many offensive free agents. Larnach is probably expendable, but after that, you only have room when you start moving Farmer, Polanco and Kepler. So while there will be less budget overall, there will be more budget per free agent need than usual.
  5. nicksaviking
    He struck out 33.5% of his at bats and had a .278 on base percentage. By just about any measure, he was just as bad as Joey Gallo offensively.
  6. nicksaviking
    They do need a big bat for the middle of the lineup. The Nelson Cruz and Jim Thome route has worked in the past. Turner isn't exactly the slugger those two were but he's still a good hitter. J.D. Martinez would probably fit that mold better, but he won't work since the team won't know about Buxton's health yet; DH likely needs to be reserved for now.
  7. nicksaviking
    No need to rehash? Because you won't try to reconcile your desire to cling to the ghosts of the fading vets AND wanting multiple big ticket free agents? You can't have both and it's not about payroll, there just isn't roster space. Larnach gets bumped, but there's no other reasonable offensive players to shuffle off other than the three guys at the end of their productive careers. You can sign ONE big ticket free agent, or let the past go and sign multiple. Your prerogative, but whichever path you go, the payroll will accommodate within reason.
  8. nicksaviking
    Yeah I think he’s likely a top Twins target based on their current offensive strategy. He takes as many pitches as anyone in the league, yet unlike the much of the team, his strikeout rate is only 24%. If they trade for pitching as they typically do, he’d probably be the only free agent of note I’d care to chase.
  9. nicksaviking
    If you’re pushing to put the band back together with Kepler, Polanco and Farmer, you have roster space for about one free agent. So 15-20M per year is a pretty sizable contract. Add 7-10M to that for any of those you’re willing to set free.
  10. nicksaviking
    Sorry, but this all sounds like you think the Kepler we saw the last three months is the Kepler that's here to stay. I don't buy his late career turnaround for a minute. By all rights he should have been DFA'd. As it turns out, the Twins were wise not to, and the luck paid off but they'd be foolish to double down on it instead of cashing out way up. But whatever, it doesn't matter how one feels about Kepler. Keep him, Polanco and Farmer. If you do that, you'd only have room for a couple of free agents at most outside of the bullpen. In that scenario, what do you care about the reduced payroll? You can still go get something significant unless you're aiming for Ohtani or Bellinger.
  11. nicksaviking
    I don't think anyone here has actually looked at the payroll situation. Even if it's going to be lower, none of these guys would be an issue. Signing four 10M free agents isn't happening, but they can still afford multiple sizable contracts. That said, Turner is the only one here I'd have interest in.
  12. nicksaviking
    I was just using those free agents and trades to show the payroll isn't going to be an issue.
  13. nicksaviking
    I don't want Teoscar as I mentioned. I just was using that as a blueprint to show that getting rid of the Kepler/Polanco/Farmer group will still allow them to fit significant free agent additions onto the roster, even if the payroll is lower than last year. Blueprint whomever you like with that money. Get a pitcher if you want. You already said you don't want the mid level free agents like Gallo and Vazquez, but that's EXACTLY what Kepler and Polanco are, both in price and in ability. They shockingly still have value after a late season surge and a sparse infield free agent class, so flip them now for cheaper and controllable players and consolidate the savings and sign someone better with it. They're largely redundant and less use to this team than they are to others. They should be doing this if the payroll was 200M or 20M.
  14. nicksaviking
    I don't know that the media is, at least yet. But I agree, they'll use it to get hits and views or likes or whatever it is that turns a profit. For the most part, this is an offseason I like the birds in the hand better than the bushes. And my trade targets would be cheaper than what they'd be replacing. Lots of us are used to demanding of the club, "Give me what I want, I don't care the price!" Well this year, it just so happens that what I want is actually on sale, comparatively.
  15. nicksaviking
    I don't know how anyone sees Polanco/Kepler/Farmer as guys at the top any longer. Polanco can't be counted on to stay healthy and even when he is, he's no longer the .800 OPS top of the order bat he used to be. Kepler was about a week away from being DFA'd mid season and Farmer is just a guy. He was never more than a bench bat. Keeping these guys is basically the same as signing Joey Gallo or Christian Vazquez. They're unreliable and inconsistent and cost about the same. But it hardly matters, if you want to keep them, then you don't have the roster space to sign multiple top end free agents, even if there were multiple top end free agents to sign. This team was never signing Cody Bellinger and they're not giving five year deals to starting pitchers.
  16. nicksaviking
    I just used the payroll tool. I traded Polanco ******Mike S, cover your eyes******* Matt Wallner and David Festa to the Marlins for Braxton Garrett. I traded Max Kepler and Jose Miranda to the Yankees for Clarke Schmidt to be another Varland-esque reliever/emergency-future starter. Add more or less to these deals, it doesn't bother me. I non-tendered Kyle Farmer. With those savings I signed both Rhys Hoskins and Teoscar Hernandez to MLBTR's 18M per and 20M per prediction. My new roster is: SP - Lopez SP - Garrett SP - Ryan SP - Ober SP - Paddock Pen - Duran, Stewart, Thielbar, Jax, Funderburk, Alcala, Varland, Schmidt C - Jeffers 1B - Hoskins 2B - Julien SS - Correa 3B - Lewis RF - Hernandez CF - Castro LF - Kirilloff DH - Buxton (fingers crossed for CF) Bench - Vazquez, Martin, Larnach, Anthony Prato (go ahead, switch him out, he's just a personal favorite of mine) Budget: 130M and that would pretty much have been my ideal offseason regardless of payroll (except for Hernandez, he strikes out too much, just added him to show the contract is doable). $5M left over for a reliever or gross and old veteran utility player.
  17. nicksaviking
    I have traded Jorge Polanco, Matt Wallner and David Festa to the Marlins for Braxton Garrett. I've traded Max Kepler and Jose Miranda to the Yankees for Clarke Schmidt. Other pieces can be added to even those moves out. I non-tendered Kyle Farmer. I've signed Teoscar Hernandez and Rhys Hoskins to the MLBTR contract guesses of 18M and 20M per year respectively. C: Ryan Jeffers ($1.7M) 1B: Rhys Hoskins ($18.0M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($.77M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M) CF: Willie Castro ($3.2M) RF: Teoscar Hernandez ($20M) DH: Byron Buxton ($15M) 4th OF: Austin Martin ($.77M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.77M) Utility: Anthony Prato ($.77M) Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Braxton Garrett ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Clarke Schmidt ($.77M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.77M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 4.99% under budget
  18. nicksaviking
    Some of the young guys will fail, but they all seem to fail much less frequently than the free agents they sign. I don't want them to spend money just to spend money, that's the exact reason Joey Gallo was on this club last year. If they move on from two of Polanco/Kepler/Farmer, which was probably the plan all along, they can still get a free agent of a caliber we're more hopeful for. One impact player, don't need to spend a bunch of money on bench filler this year.
  19. nicksaviking
    I kind of think this is much ado about nothing. Hayes didn't say anything concrete about the reasoning for the lower payroll, but since everyone has been talking about the TV deal, that's an obvious conclusion to draw, but even if they had MORE revenue, a step back in payroll seems like it was the logical thing anyway. Not to save money, but just how the roster is shaping up. They NEVER sign top end pitching, and it's always because of the years it takes to get a deal done more so than the money. So signing a free agent to be the #2 was likely never going to happen unless a reunion with Gray was in the cards. Another trade is way more likely, and whomever they get is likely to be younger and more controllable, therefore cheaper than Gray's 12M salary last year. Also, it's clearly time to move on from Polanco. Moving him would have next to nothing to do with salary anyway, there's just other players who've taken his job. Kepler is more likely to stay, but it might be time to move on from him as well, especially if there's a team that believes in his last three months of 2023 and forgets about the prior 3.5 years. But most importantly, the young players have shown there's no need to sign the Joey Gallo/Christian Vazquez type free agents this year. There's no need to trade for a Kyle Farmer who'll eat up some of that budget. They don't need to bring in 3 or 4 or a half dozen new faces this year, and instead if they want one Rhys Hoskins or Teoscar Hernandez or Mitch Garver, there would still be room to do so. Bottom line, with the lack of free agent bats available, this team's reluctance to give the extended years to top free agent pitchers, and the numerous young players who are ready for MLB action, I think payroll was going to be down regardless of any TV deal. Though the TV deal may provide a bit of shade for the optics as it turns out.
  20. nicksaviking
    These are never good signings though unless there's absolutely nobody in AAA who can help. We see it just about every time, whether it's the Happ/Schomacher class or the Bundy/Archer class, the the Ryan/Ober/Varland/Smeltzer/Winder options end up being just as effective if not more so than the vets. Unless there is zero depth, spend the money elsewhere. The best case scenario with these guys is them just being empty filler with no production and zero upside. Worst case scenario is repeatedly flushing wins down the drain until the sunk cost revelation sinks in, which usually takes way too long.
  21. nicksaviking
    Yeah, pretty easy lesson to read here. If you pay for bottom tier pitching, you'll more often than not get what you deserve. Also, I count six free agent hitters in that list. Two were signed pretty exclusively for their bats, Cruz and Solano. Vazquez, Gallo and Simmons were brought over pretty exclusively for their gloves. And Correa was probably healthy doses of both. The guys you only sign for their glove are bound to only frustrate everyone too.
  22. nicksaviking
    Probably hard to sell an all out rebuild, particularly if they feel stung that their manager just went down the road to the rival club chasing them in the standings. Outside of catcher and left field, their MLB offense is a bit of a train wreck though. Seems like we've seen similar scenarios where the team is willing to part with one of their top end starters to get back MLB ready offensive help. It would surely be painful from a Twins perspective, but I'm game.
  23. nicksaviking
    He's half a year younger than Martin and Julien and two year's younger than Wallner. He reached AAA a month after Martin, and as far as his promotion path goes, he is ahead of Julien and Wallner considering neither got bumped up to AAA in 2022. If those guys aren't considered prospects, then I really could care less about prospects and only care about which minor leaguers can come up and contribute. Same goes for Camargo. And should any of Prato, Williams and Kiersey remain after the draft, I'm not closing the book on them either.
  24. nicksaviking
    Yeah, that's always been my argument. As far as glovework goes, the Twins shouldn't sweat that position as much as other clubs do. Knowing how to play that wall might be more important that a players range.
  25. nicksaviking
    My favorite demonstration of this impact is Torii Hunter's miraculous defensive rebound in UZR at his age 39 season: The guy probably could have played another decade!
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