nicksaviking

That wasn't what I was getting at. If I had to pick between the two, I'd pick Kiermaier over Taylor in a heartbeat.

Yeah, it’s such utter nonsense. Players get way more plate appearances than defensive chances, and as you mention, most of those defensive chances are routine. Also, unless players start getting 10+ chances every game, it’s not logically possible for one player to be 3.6x better than another player defensively. Evaluate offense. Then evaluate defense. Then evaluate which area is more important to your current roster/position/player/lineup needs.

I don’t see why Kiermaier is a safer bat than Castro. They both woke up last year, but Kiermaier hadn’t done much offensively since 2017 and seven years older.

We can have as big of a free agent budget as we want, but it still won't change the fact that by nature, every one of these free agent pitchers, outside of Yamamoto, is on the back side of their careers.

Yeah, me too. Kiermaier/Michael Taylor types are hardly reliable offensively. It's not like they're guaranteed to be a better option than the in-house guys, and even if they were, the difference is likely negligible. And it's not like there are really any reasonable better options to acquire than those two, so might as well just go with what you have, hope for the upside but realize that even if you don't get it, all you're out is a below average veteran bat that would have eaten up 10M in payroll that could have been used elsewhere. It's still a win. And if we really want to drill down on the subject, even if Martin doesn't hit well, we can be pretty confident that strikeouts won't be an issue and he'll get on base at a reasonable clip. Those are two things this lineup needs, so if you're not getting a well-rounded hitter, at least roster against redundancies, because Taylor's power spike just does not outweigh the damage his strikeouts and terrible OBP does to this offense already struggling in those areas.

Trading for pitching would allow them to use their free agent budget on hitting, and offensive players tend to be less volatile than pitchers. But probably more importantly, if you trade for pitchers, you can get them in their prime. Free agent pitchers are almost always past their prime.

The Twins aren't afraid to spend money, they're afraid to spend years. The reason the Twins haven't signed any top end free agent pitchers is because most of those pitchers are getting five year deals which the Twins won't do, or they are legacy types, Verlander, Scherzer, Kershaw, who are chasing top dollar but where they feel they can win a championship. I think he moves on, but Gray may be the one guy who actually fits into the bucket of what needs to happen for the Twins to sign a top free agent pitcher. Personally, I'd like to trade for another long-term front line starter. I'd start by going back to Miami and see about more of their youthful arms. They still desperately need offensive help. I'm very willing to trade away assets best left unnamed in fear of getting myself tarred and feathered in these parts.

Yeah, this is the biggest thing, and to put this into percentages, Taylor struck out 33.5% of his PA, Kiermaier only struck out 21% of the time. The Twins desperately need to lower their strikeout rate. Should be the top priority after replacing/re-signing Sonny Gray.

I don't imagine anyone would want to add him to their 40-man though. He was the 27th overall pick, it's OK to whiff on a guy drafting down there, it's not like they bungled a Nick Gordon or Tyler Jay top 10 pick. Just wish him well, release him, and hope to do better in next year's draft. And really, the rest of that draft looks solid, who cares if your first pick wasn't the best one? Making decisions based on draft equity would be foolish.

And they still have four more games against their horse crap division rivals!

And calling NO dicey is generous. They're 5-4 with their wins being Chicago, Indianapolis, New England, Carolina and Tennessee. They're basically just missing Arizona and the Giants to hit the barf-bag-win bingo. Also, they lost to Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Houston and Jacksonville. Good lord, who did they blackmail to get that schedule? They've played one winning team.

If he's a rotational/bench guy, he'd be a great addition, and a way better fit than Michael Taylor. He had a good season with the bat last year, but he's been an offensive liability for half a decade and he's going to be 34. I really don't want to do another season with these type of players filling out a starting spot. Also not surprised about getting pitching via trade and not free agency. But they need to aim high again, Gray/Lopez level, not Ryan/Ober/Paddock level.

One year max for me. No no-trade clause. And I'm still drafting a QB. He'll be able to get a better deal on the open market though. Someone will give him three years.

They didn't play an entire solid game against them, but they played way better than expected against Hurts and Mahomes. The recent cupcake teams sure help, but I'd have liked to see those matchups later in the year as the defense seems to be meshing better and I'm seeing fewer brain farts and blown coverages.

There are going to be dozens of better players to pick. Heck, the Twins are going to have half a dozen better players made available. Camargo, Williams, Severino, Keirsay, Prato, Isola, Helman, Soularie. Most if not all of those guys won't be protected. And that's not even going through the pitchers who are much more easily hidden or guys like Salas who sometimes get taken because at least they can be useful on defense.

My money is on Flores being here next year. He should be a head coach again, but teams just are not successfully hiring them from the defensive side of the ball any more. Is there anyone other than Sean McDermott recently? Recent being seven years ago. Ron Rivera seems to be the new Jeff Fisher and hasn't done much in about a decade. Mike Tomlin was hired almost two decades ago. Pretty much all the successful new head coaches were hot-shots from the offensive side of the ball, and the NFL is about as trendy of a league as they come.

Normally I'd think he'd be the one to return to school to try to move up to #1 the following year, but if Harbaugh leaves and Michigan gets nailed, that would be a terrible decision. He'd have to transfer to a most likely less favorable situation.

We never know. But it's definitely not ten teams. Kenny Pickett went as the QB #1 two years ago, and I don't know that he'd even crack the top ten this year. There will be upside QBs going all over this draft.

Once Harbaugh and Michigan get nailed, he could have some stink on him, to no fault of his own. "Was Michigan stealing defensive signs too?!?!?!?" Which would only push him down the boards.

Carolina isn't drafting another QB after ONE season with the #1 overall pick. Never. Everyone in that building would be fired. Mostly because they don't HAVE a first round pick because they traded it to get Young. Have you seen Sam Howell play? He's not the problem on that team and has been really good outside of the Buffalo game. Even if Washington was foolish enough to get rid a 23-year-old who looks like he's going to be a top ten guy before too long, he'll join Cousins, Fields and Murray as a starter on another QB needy team. Also, Howell being drafted in the 5th round just shows that when there's not a consensus, like there isn't this year, teams can get the best QB in the draft later. Plenty of people pegged Howell as the best QB of that class, which was 10x weaker than this class.

It's just crazy how little consensus there is. Normally this time of year there's like three or four guys, maybe five, whom everyone is debating. This year there's two and after that, no one agrees, and not because these guys are sketchy, but because there are so many arms you can dream on.

Because the Falcons game thread is getting a bit sidetracked, I thought I'd list my favorite QBs in next year's draft, just for fun. I am 100% going to change my mind a dozen times before the draft. I'm obviously no expert, but have watched most of these guys play and have been reading up on them in my down time,. Caleb Williams - Not much to say here. Still, I think I'm going to switch this out before all is said and done, his talent is awesome, but he holds on to the ball FOREVER. Can he make the quick reads needed in the NFL? Probably, the most creative arms in the NFL also tend to hold on to the ball and improvise in and out of the pocket. Drake Maye - I bet by the end of the college season, he's #1 on half of the pundits' lists. Williams probably re-takes his spot after the combine though. JJ McCarthy - Man, I want a mobile QB so dang bad. This guy is very slim, but a hell of an athlete and looks like he can make all the throws. Bo Nix - Pretty much the same as McCarthy. His career path looks a lot like Joe Burrow Quinn Ewers - Another athlete and even with him being super young, he seems to have about as quick of a release as you get in college. This one I think will shoot up my board and the pundits' board before the draft. Jayden Daniels - I haven't watched him, but he sounds like another quick release master who can also make plays with his feet. Michael Penix - This guy is super accurate and makes great reads. I'd like him more except for my desire for a guy who can scramble. He seems like a good athlete, but he still DOESN'T scramble so he could be similar to Bryce Young and Teddy Bridgewater. If the Vikings are looking to replicate what they have in Kirk Cousins, I wouldn't be surprised if this is who they have their sights on. Cam Ward - Normally I'd have him higher since he will probably be the top of the class as far as running goes, but most of the guys ahead of him are somewhere between Josh Allen and Justin Herbert in terms of making those plays already, so the athletic gap isn't as big as normal. Though, he's probably going to test the best at the combine and could shoot up the board like Anthony Richardson and Trey Lance. Sheduer Sanders - He should be higher, but I'm a bit skeptical. Everyone says he's an NFL ready QB with a high football IQ, which isn't a shock considering how and with whom he's grown up. I am concerned about there being a circus surrounding him and I don't think having dad promoting him on every TV and radio program every week is a great thing for team buidling. Riley Leonard - I also haven't seen him play, but he sounds like another super athlete with a big arm. I could probably move him higher but his scouting report sounds pretty much the same as Duke's last elite QB, Daniel Jones, so I'm a bit (unfairly) biased. I also see Tyler Van Dyke, Spencer Rattler, Michael Pratt and Jordan Travis with glowing reports and sitting on top ten lists, but they aren't on my radar at the moment. Overall, it's crazy how seldom most of these guys turn the ball over. It wasn't long ago that the big-time college arms used to throw a fair number of picks, probably in an effort to show off their arms. That doesn't seem to be the case any longer. Or at least not with most of this class.

That many teams 'needing' a QB isn't abnormal, yet 13 teams drafting a 1st round QB would be a record. I think five is the most ever. And Washington and Carolina are not drafting a 1st round QB in any but the most insane scenario.

Shouldn't be added, and I doubt he's taken in the draft. I don't think even a rebuilding team would roster a 1B only player who strikes out 32% of the time. He's hitting HR in the AFL, but that's it. Overall he's not hitting, he's not getting on base at an above average rate and he's actually striking out more than his career norms. Honestly, I'm concerned that he'll take a spot away from somebody else on the Saints next year simply because of his draft capital. I'd rather see Severino, Camargo, Isola, Williams and other players with better offensive potential get those reps.

Five QBs aren't going before the Vikings pick, even if they pick 32. And if the Bears and Cardinals pick the top two QBs, Fields, Murray and Cousins will most likely be on a QB needy team.