ToddlerHarmon

Every mention you see of Byron Buxton's transformation at the plate is inevitably followed by, "If he can just stay healthy."
After years of struggles with the bat, it appears that Buxton has finally figured it out offensively, bringing the talent he showed in the minors now to the majors and what made him the top prospect in baseball.
He was on pace for a historic 2021 season before a variety of injuries limited Buxton to just 61 games. Still, his .306/.358/.647 slash line from last year with a 171 OPS+ leaves fans hopefully that this is the year that Buxton can play 150 games+. If he can, Buxton will no doubt be in the MVP discussion and the Twins should be in the thick of a playoff spot.
So what does a full Buxton season look like? Where would it rank among the great seasons in Twins history. Well, lets speculate and calculate what that might look like.
 
Single-Season Twins Records

WAR - Rod Carew, 1977 - 9.7
Based on Baseball Reference WAR, this seems like the most likely team record to fall if Buxton stays healthy. He put up 4.5 WAR last season in just a third of a season (61 games). Over a full season, with the defense and base running, it seems possible that Buxton could have a 10 WAR season. How rare is that? Only 3 players have had a 10 WAR season over the past 20 years; Mookie Betts (2018), Mike Trout (2012 and 2016) and Barry Bonds (2002 and 2004). Going back further, there have only been 24 individual 10 WAR seasons since 1960 among 13 different players. 150 games of Bryon Buxton in 2022 would be awfully close.
 
Slugging Percentage - Nelson Cruz, 2019 - .639
Buxton had a .647 SLG last season in 235 at-bats compared to Nelson Cruz, who put up a franchise record .639 SLG in 2019 in 454 at-bats over 120 games at DH. Cruz obliterated the previous SLG record of Harmon Killebrew of .606 from 1961. Can Buxton sustain that power over a full season. His home run power has finally developed, hitting HR's in three straight at-bats this past weekend vs. Seattle. Given his speed, singles are stretched into doubles and triples??? may not be there. Why? I have heard it said that Buxton already has enough speed to score from second base on essentially any ball hit to the outfield, so why gamble for a triple? Buxton had 19 HR's and 22 doubles last year, but not a single triple. 
 
On-Base Plus Slugging - Nelson Cruz, 2019 - .1.031
The SLG% record and OPS will be close and tied together. Cruz's 2019 was one of the greatest offensive season in Twins history and may have gone under the radar somehow. Buxton's OPS last year was 1.067, so he is certainly capable of putting together similar numbers over at least a 60 game stretch.
 
Defensive WAR - Kirby Puckett, 1984 - 3.3
Buxton had a 1.2 dWAR season last year and put up a career-high of 2.6 dWAR in his 140 game, 2017 season. 
 
Runs Scored - Chuck Knoblauch, 140 - 1996
This one may be tough, but second place (Rod Carew, 128 runs in 1977) may be in play. If Buxton can reach base at around a 35 percent clip and have 550 plate appearances, that equates to 192 times on base. With All-Stars Jorge Polanco and Carlos Correa hitting behind Buxton, this one may be close. In 1996, Knoblauch reached base 197 times via hits, 98 times with walks and 19 times after being hit by a pitch. That totals 314 times, which is incredible. 
 
Total Bases - Tony Oliva, 374 - 1964
Buxton had 152 total bases last season in 61 games. Over 150 games, that comes out to 373 total bases. Buxton already has 16 total bases in just four games this season to lead MLB.

Home Runs - Harmon Killebrew, 49 - 1964/1969
Only three players in Twins history have had a 40 home run season; Harmon Killebrew (7X), Brian Dozier (42 in 2016) and Nelson Cruz (41 in 2019). Buxton's career high in HR's was last year with 19. At the rate Buxton has hit HR's the past few seasons, a 30 HR season should be attainable and 40 isn't out of the question.
 
OPS+ - Rod Carew, 178 - 1977
Buxton OPS+ last season was 171. In 1977, Carew's OPS was 1.019. When factoring in the era, Buxton will likely need an OPS near 1.100 to achieve the same.
 
Regardless of what records Buxton sets or doesn't set this season, it was been a fun start to the season for the Twins center fielder. We may finally get what every Twins and baseball fan has been wanting. A full season of health for Byron Buxton.

The hardest thing to get about Simeon Wood-Richardson is his name. The easiest thing is to see a guy with stuff like Jordan Balazovic, but with a big, friendly smile for the world. Another easy thing is watching his slow curve bend about a foot, just catching the zone at the end of a pretty little trip through the air. You could just about see the catcher and the ump both smiling at how pretty it was. Then he comes back with that snapping fastball, low in the zone. This guy is a keeper. I want him on my team. 
Not sure how much more polish he needs after dominating the Red Sox for a couple late innings Monday. 
One challenge the team will face is figuring out a good nickname. Sim? Woo? Rich? SWR? Not sure what fits, it might not even be part of his name. He seems like the kind of relaxed, friendly guy you wish was your neighbor. I feel like calling him Frank, or Chuck. 
Anyway, his talent looks very real to me, and it doesn't look like just a couple snuff-out innings. This dude can really pitch. 

Disclaimer: Despite the photo, no Byron Buxtons were used in the preparation of this blog entry.
Do I have to say it? Okay, I will, just to get it out of the way: I love the Correa signing.  Teams should be trying to get good players, and we just got one of the best baseball players on the planet, in the middle of what should be his prime years - a center-cut slice, as they say. 
But ever since I heard about it, TWO LONG DAYS AGO, there's been something on my mind.  Risk versus reward.  And I don't think I've seen any of the writeups here, or elsewhere, look at it from this angle.  Did we really outmaneuver the Yankees?  I'm not sure that's what happened, or that New York's front office is gnashing their teeth with regret in the slightest.
Everyone's treating this like it's a one-year contract, and I agree that that's the most likely way it plays out.  But it's not a one-year contract - the Twins committed to three years.  There's the saying that there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract.  The converse is that (because team budgets don't carry over from year to year) everything longer than one year requires the signing team to put its neck into a noose, to one degree or another.
So, what's the risk with this contract, and what's the reward?  The risk is pretty obvious and pretty easy to define - Correa could get hit by a meteor tomorrow* and the Twins still would be on the hook for the full $105.3M, which by their usual accounting would apply equally to the budgets of those three years and in some way impact their ability to operate.  Probably they'll pay him $35.1M for one year of service and then thank him for his service as he departs.  But they've put $105.3M on the table, and are risking it.  You know how you say you'd "bet your house" on some sure proposition? You don't really ever do that, because you would actually have to put the deed to your house out there to be taken if you are proved wrong, and you'd start thinking about all the ways it could indeed go wrong.  It's like that here.  The Twins haven't bet the (Pohlads') house, but there's a significant chunk of change on the table that wasn't there three days ago.  That aspect still seems underappreciated.
Now what's the reward?  Much harder to estimate.  There is expected reward and then there's maximum reward.  Let's focus on the maximum here, since I started with maximum risk.  I'll use WAR as a catch-all for how to measure a player's contribution.  If you want to skip the details, jump down to "I'll Do The Homework Later."
Carlos Correa may not yet have had his "career year" - remember what I said about us getting a center-cut slice?  He might go full-MVP bananas-mode in 2022.  Shohei Ohtani was MVP last year and his pitching/batting WAR on b-r.com added up to 9.0.  So let's go with that.  If Correa has that kind of year, he walks after the season, of course - goodbye and good luck, good sir.
Let's say he goes out and puts up "only" a season like last year, with a WAR of 7.  Same outcome.  He walks away, with smiles all around.
But maybe 2021 actually was his career year, and he follows up like that with an all-star level WAR of 5.  Same outcome - maybe he loves his teammates here, but bidness is bidness, amirite - he leaves.
Maybe he's only above average and his WAR is 3.  Probably he walks, right?  Still can market himself to a big market team for a long contract, certainly for more than the $70.2M he's still owed.
What if he's average, and/or injured part of the time, and his WAR is 2.  Maybe he stays, maybe he walks.  What if it goes really badly and his WAR is 1?  Same uncertainty - maybe he stays, trying to rebuild value.  WAR can be 0 too, or even negative.  Probably he stays, trying to rebuild value.
Okay, sorry to belabor, but my point is that if he stays, it's almost certainly tied to low performance relative to expectations.  Reeeeeally low.
Now, consider Year 2, 2023.  Seems like it's 90% odds that he's gone, and whatever WAR he earned for the Twins this one year is the end of the story.  But in that remaining 10% case, what will be your expectation of WAR for 2023, given that he put up 0 or 1 WAR in 2022?  Depends on why, but probably a WAR of 9 is now off the table - chances of a bounceback like that are just too remote.  Could he return to 2021 levels and deliver 7 WAR?  Sure, maybe.  If he does, then he walks after the year, and his contribution to the Twins is that number plus his (low) 2021 number.  Like around... 8 or 9, for the two years together?  It can't be much higher, because he would have left already.  Of course he might not deliver 7, but only 5 - he still walks after Year Two.  3 WAR - probably he walks.  Lower than that, maybe he stays.
So if it was 10% that he's staying for Year 2, probably it's also at most 50/50 that he's back for Year 3, or 5%.  And that will be only if he's put up WAR in the neighborhood of 0-2 the first year and followed up with 0-2 WAR the second year.  Now what are the odds that he suddenly goes bananas at last, after 2 straight sub-par years?  Really small, right?  Anything can happen, but an MVP type season really is unlikely.  He could win Comeback Player of the Year with a 5 WAR.  I think that's about the ceiling at that point.  0-2, plus 0-2, plus 5, equals... gee, 9 at most, again.
There are all kinds of ways to do this kind of analysis, because nothing is certain.  But I've convinced myself that the absolute maximum the Twins can sanely hope for, from this particular contract, is a total WAR of 9, whether in one season or spread across multiple.
"I'll Do The Homework Later."  Good, I don't blame you.  To recap: the Twins stand to reap 9 WAR as a maximum, by signing Correa - go back and do the homework if you think it should be higher, I really don't think you'll come up with a sound argument.  The Twins' maximum risk is $105.3M.  We don't expect the latter to happen, but that's the risk.
Now, let's compare.  What if a deep-pockets team had gone ahead and instead given Correa a 10-year $325M contract like some were saying, and let's assume no opt-outs?  Let's do a quick version of the max risk/reward analysis for that - bear with me for one paragraph.  As before, the maximum risk on the contract is simple: $325M is on the line, win lose or Tommy John Surgery.  What's the maximum reward?  If we're allowing a chance at an MVP-like 9 WAR before, we need to do it again.  He might do that in any of the 10 years of the contract, but let's don't go crazy and think he does it every time.  Let's say 1 year of 9 WAR, and a 7 (a second monster year), a couple years of 5 WAR (still a huge asset), three more years of 3 WAR (above average), and then 1 WAR each of the other three years if he hits a steep decline or sprinkles in an injury-plagued season or two earlier in the sequence.  So really, I'm not talking absolute maximum after all, merely an optimistic outlook for a window of contention involving a great player.  Those 10 numbers, they all add up to 38 WAR.  A starry-eyed optimist could look at a potential future hall-of famer and come up with an argument for more, like 50 - meaning inner-circle HoF, which I can't honestly rule out for him at age 27 - he's less than halfway through his career and is more than halfway to HoF status IMO.  But let's go with 38. 
Estimated performance would likely be lower but remember, this is max risk and max reward.
So, put yourself in the Yankees' shoes.  Do you risk $105.3M for at most 8 WAR, like the Twins are doing?  Or do you say, **** that, I mean forget that, we're rich, and by tripling our risk, we can more than triple our potential reward.  Isn't that what smart money does?
So I think they, New York, say no to the smaller contract.  They have deep pockets, and won't risk significant money for modest maximum reward, when they could invest 3X as much in risk and really hit the jackpot.
Max risk and max reward are not the only analyses a team would make.  Not by a long shot.  Anticipated actual cost and estimated reward also are crucial.  Let's say 4 WAR for 2021 to reward the (very likely) $35.1M he gets from the Twins.  Compare that to maybe 30 WAR over a 10 year contract that costs $325M.  Now the dollars per WAR are much more favorable to the short contract - it is center-cut after all, an advantage not shared by the full 10-year cut of meat.
But likely outcomes aren't enough.  A front-office that didn't present a solid risk/reward analysis, which I have merely half-assed in this lengthy post, would be laughed out of the room by their higher-ups - if, that is, the higher-ups had an actual sense of humor and were in a forgiving mood and didn't fire them for lack of due diligence.
Bottom line, this is a mid-market contract, in my estimation.  The expected reward fits the expected price, but the risks are disproportionate.  A big team goes big.  No regrets for the Yankees.  This is the kind of deal the Twins have to embrace, but by no means did they "put one over on them" when they traded Donaldson to the Yanks to free up the cash to make this happen.  The Twins had to, in effect, buy Correa a $70.2M insurance policy, to get him to commit to just one year at $35.1M.  It probably adds $10M to the cost that the team's CPA has to factor in.
Thanks for your patience.  I welcome nit-picks, or bigger criticisms.
 
 
* Let's assume a small meteor, and like in Princess Bride he's only mostly dead, yet still slightly alive and expecting direct deposits at his bank to continue

Everybody's trying to save baseball from something. Things aren't the way they oughta be. Or they're not the way they were. Baseball purists tilt a windmills and sling arrows at one another with one goal in mind - keep The Game intact for the future. The generational hand-off has to occur, or The Game gets lost.
What's really at stake? What are we fighting for? Real life has enough to engage us. There are plenty of other sports. What makes baseball so noble? Just recently, many denigrated the sport as "just a game" when the owners and players fought for their own visions for the future of the sport. The players get to play a kid's game for a living. The diamond is not real life. So many complaints, and yet many of those incensed will come back to the game with their money in hand.
Baseball, after the first pitch is thrown, runs on its own hourglass. I'm not the first person to notice baseball games take as long as they take. A new pitch clock won't change that. The game lasts until the final out is recorded. And I'd be resorting to a cliche if I mentioned baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. 
The world, however, has moved so very far away from that baseball ethos. Look at where we are. Seriously. We're literally suffering through two of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse. Where are you getting your doom from? It's always in your pocket, waiting on your cell phone. You can take a quick break at work and use that office computer to keep tabs on the spreading darkness. Make sure you only check in with the news agencies that share your point of view. We're always behind and we're sprinting every day.
When a baseball game is being played, your brain has a chance to work through all the angles. Like a chess game, to borrow another cliche. The organist plays along as you ponder coaching decisions under the sky and the stars. The world is shrunk down to one problem, Home versus Away.  Baseball rewards you for paying attention and using your brain. If you miss the plot, you miss a lot. 
When we save baseball, we save ourselves. At least, we save the part of ourselves that has time to sit with a problem and take the time to work on it. When the game is done, we're back to real life. Everything moves fast and if you can't win the first time, don't try. We lack patience.
Fixing baseball is dangerous. If it loses patience and thoughtfulness, it loses its identity. And we can't afford to lose more parts of society that reward patience and thoughtfulness. Take a child to a baseball game the way it is now and, true, they might be bored. But boredom doesn't kill kids. Give that kid some of your time and explain the game. Watch the joy on their face when they start to see the inner cogs of the mental game. Congratulations! You just shared a valuable life skill. You just taught a kid about relationships and strategies.
Because The Game is STILL The Game. It's been The Game since before the Civil War, and it's more important now than ever because the world is broken. Life is fragile - it's even more fragile when the threat of war and more war looms over the world. Baseball isn't the only solution, but I firmly believe it is one solution. The kids will come to baseball and they will learn to be patient and thoughtful and they'll transfer those skills into navigating a treacherous, hostile world. If the kids never learn those skills in this fast-paced, chaotic world, it's not baseball that will be lost.  It's us.

Welcome to Twinternationals! This is a space for Twins fans from different countries to read about their team in their native language. This section is run by Venezuelan Mariana Guzmán (@TwinsLatinos) and Brazilian Thiéres Rabelo (@TwinsBrasil). Today's entry is written in Portuguese.

Por Thiéres Rabelo
Graças ao bom Deus o beisebol está de volta! Na noite desta quinta-feira (10) a MLB e a Associação de Jogadores chegaram a um acordo para um novo Acordo Coletivo (CBA) e a temporada regular irá acontecer de maneira normal.
Dentre várias coisas, esse acordo finalmente libera os clubes para recomeçarem a free agency, em busca de assinar com agentes livres ou procurar trocas com outros clubes. É agora que o futuro de cada time em 2022 será definido. Para refrescar nossas memórias, vamos olhar hoje como está o elenco do Twins e discutir algumas das principais necessidades que a equipe tem.
O elenco atual – Jogadores de posição
No elenco de 40 jogadores do Twins estão, na data de hoje, apenas 38 atletas, sendo 16 jogadores de posição e 22 arremessadores. Antes de a MLB entrar em lockout no início de dezembro, Minnesota havia feito somente duas movimentações de mercado:
Renovou por sete anos o contrato de sua principal estrela, o CF Byron Buxton, após meses de indefinição; Assinou contrato de um ano com o SP Dylan Bundy, que disputou as duas últimas temporadas pelo Angels; No ataque, o Twins vai precisar contar com a sorte neste ano, pois ela não esteve do seu lado no ano passado. O lineup do time tem peças muito fortes, com seis jogadores terminando a temporada 2021 com wRC+ acima da média (que é 100), e cinco desses seis tendo pelo menos 110 de wRC+. A falta de sorte à qual me refiro é que vários desses jogadores sofreram com lesões no ano passado e não puderam ter uma temporada completa.
Os dois que chamam mais atenção são os casos de Byron Buxton e Mitch Garver. Nenhum dos dois conseguiu chegar a sequer 260 aparições ao bastão (PA) no ano, mas eles tiveram, respectivamente, 169 e 137 de wRC+. Outros jogadores de posição importantes que perderam tempo de jogo por lesão foram Miguel Sanó, Luis Arráez e Josh Donaldson. Então, se esse grupo conseguir ficar saudável, o ataque tem tudo para ter outra temporada acima da média.
Mas é claro que cabem reforços. O ataque busca, atualmente, preencher alguns buracos. Andrelton Simmons foi o SS titular do ano passado e, apesar de prover uma defesa fantástica, ele era um peso morto no ataque. Com a posição de SS tendo sua melhor “safra” em free agency em um bom tempo, é possível que o clube vá atrás de algum grande nome. Meu favorito seria Trevor Story.
No campo externo, vários jogadores fizeram revezamento para ocupar principalmente a posição de LF, deixada vaga pela saída de Eddie Rosario ao fim de 2020. Os calouros Brent Rooker e Trevor Larnach foram os que mais vezes foram escalados na posição, mas nenhum dos dois teve bom desempenho ao bastão (ambos terminaram o ano com apenas 89 de wRC+). No caso de Larnach, para piorar, houve ainda o problema das lesões, que o tiraram de boa parte da temporada e impediram que ele adquirisse ritmo de jogo. Não seria uma loucura se o Twins decidisse ir atrás de alguém no mercado para a função, mas eu, particularmente, preferiria insistir em Larnach, que tem muito talento.
Outra posição que poderia ser reforçada é a de 1B. Sanó teve um ano bom, passando das 500 PA pela primeira vez na carreira e voltando a rebater 30 home runs depois de dois anos. Ele também reduziu consideravelmente sua taxa de strikeouts, conseguindo a menor marca de sua carreira (apesar de alta na média da MLB), com 34,4%. Mas, com a saída de Nelson Cruz na trade deadline do ano passado, é possível que ele passe a ser o rebatedor designado titular.
Assim, para a primeira base, Minnesota teria que decidir se daria nova chance ao ótimo garoto Alex Kirilloff ou se procuraria alguém no mercado. Kirilloff teve sua boa temporada de estréia nas ligas maiores interrompida por uma lesão no punho que precisou de cirurgia. Apesar disso, o que ele mostrou nos 59 jogos que pôde disputar foi muito animador. Assim como no caso de Larnach, eu acho que a solução para a posição já está dentro do elenco.
Por fim, caso assine com um novo SS, Minnesota terá a chance de ter vindo do banco o excelente Luis Arráez, que só não é titular na segunda base hoje porque Polanco teve a melhor temporada de sua carreira no ano passado e foi o melhor rebatedor da equipe. O venezuelano é extremamente menosprezado MLB afora, muito pelo fato de as lesões terem-no atrapalhado desde que subiu para as grandes ligas, em 2019. No ano passado, entre jogadores com pelo menos 400 PA, ele liderou o time em OBP, com .375.
Além dele, os outros jogadores que possivelmente estarão no banco de reservas são atletas que têm muito a provar: Ryan Jeffers, como reserva direto de Garver, Nick Gordon, o “coringa” que pode atuar no campo interno e no externo, e Rooker, que além de ser o quarto homem de OF, também pode contribuir como 1B e como DH.
Em suma, se eu fosse escalar o lineup do Twins somente com os jogadores que estão no elenco hoje – e contando com o milagre de todos permanecerem saudáveis por toda a temporada –, o meu lineup seria este:

Bom por hoje é só com esta primeira parte da análise. No próximo texto, vou falar sobre o que pode ser feito para que nossos grupo de arremessadores não tenha uma temporada tão ruim como foi a do ano passado.
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Hey, it’s the Christmas season and there’s no real baseball on TV. Nor is there any real baseball news, and I don’t want to discuss one more time whether the Twins are in rebuild or retool mode.
But it’s a wonderful life, and there are movies to watch. On a recent road trip with my son, we tried to come up with the starting lineup on the All-Time Baseball Movie team. These are the fictional guys. It would be too easy to insert Lou Gehrig from Pride of the Yankees and Babe Ruth from any number of films.
Here’s what we’ve got. Add your comments and rebuttals below.
Leading off and playing center field, we have to go with the speedster Willie Mays Hayes from Major League. The original version, not Major League II, III or whatever they’re up to by now. When you hit like Mays and run like Hayes, you gotta be in the lineup. Hayes is a tough call in center over Kelly Leake from Bad News Bears and Benny “The Jet” Rodriguez from The Sandlot, but you clearly gotta keep the latter on the roster as a pinch runner.
Batting second and playing left field will be Shoeless Joe. I know that I said this is fictional and Joe Jackson was real, but the movie is clearly a fantasy, and we’re talking about perhaps the best-known character in the genre. With that line drive back through the box off Ray, he’s clearly adept at going with the pitch, a skill we’re looking for in our No. 2 hitter.
Batting third, where we want one of our best hitters, we have to go with The Natural, Roy Hobbs. He plays rightfield and has the lineup’s best walk-up music. If you don’t believe that, just stay after any minor league game for the fireworks show and you’ll get a listen.
It’s not intentional to have worked our way around the outfield with top three spots in the order, but it came out that way. We’re kinda going to continue that by finding a way to get Major Leaguer Pedro Cerrano’s bat in the lineup, which we’ll do in the cleanup spot as the DH. Movies don’t tend to have the DH in a starring role, but Jobu hits the fastball very much. Oh, and don’t steal his rum.
Catcher is tough. Some of the genre’s best characters are behind the plate. I know I’m going to get flack for not choosing Crash Davis from Bull Durham, but the dude’s a career minor league. Stay tuned, I’ve got a spot for him. Similarly, Jake Taylor from Major League is a gamer, a masterful bunter and a great handler of a pitching staff. And then there’s Hamilton Porter from The Sandlot. I don’t think I can go with him, but we need him on the bench – there can’t be a better bench jockey and trash talker in the league.
But all those pale compare to the one who truly was in a League of her (Their) Own, Dottie Hinson. She’ll woman the backstop and bat fifth.
Following her in the lineup and batting sixth is her teammate. Playing second base, we have the window-breaking slugger, Marla Hooch.
First base is a hitter’s spot, but it’s actually a little weak in the movies. Granted, Clu Heywood leads the Major League in most offensive categories, including nose hair, but we only want the good guys on our team, so we can’t use him. Similarly, Mr. 3000 is just such a bad movie that I’m not going to use Stan Ross. That leaves us with another aging slugger, back from Japan, Mr. Baseball Jack Eliot, and he’ll bat seventh.
Third base is another sparse one. The potentially obvious choice here is Roger Dorn, but he pretty much showed himself a clubhouse cancer throughout Major League, so we’ll have to pass. Instead, we’ll go with our third pick from League of Their Own, Doris Murphy. She can rub teammates the wrong way, as witnessed by her taking on Kit Hinson after a rough game, but she’s clearly a gamer, the kind of player who want as a spark batting near the bottom of the lineup at No. 8.
Finally, we need a shortstop. Amazingly with such a glamour position, I couldn’t come up with a good standout shortstop from a baseball movie. I mean, with his way of coaching up teammates, it seems likely that “The Jet” Rodriguez could pull out his inner Cesar Tovar and play there, but I don’t think he actually does in the movie.
But I’ve got an unnamed sleeper. Unnamed in that I couldn’t remember his name ever being used in the movie. But you need defense up the middle, and with that final play to come in and bare hand the tipped ball to preserve the perfecto at the end of For Love of the Game, this unnamed guy will play short and bat ninth.
By contrast, though it may seem that the lineup is a bit weak at the bottom, we’ve got a loaded rotation. He is, by definition, a Rookie (of the Year), but with the bionic arm, Henry Rowengartner is in the mix. I like to work young guys in slowly, so I’m going to start him at No. 5 in the rotation.
And speaking of youth, we’ll have another youngster in the No. 4 spot, Amanda Wurlitzer from the Bad News Bears. Despite her youth, she does have championship experience, leading the Bears to the title game. At No. 3, we’ll go with Bingo Long from his Traveling All-Stars & Motor Kings. He’s based on Satchel Paige, so that’s impressive.
Picking between the top two spots was tough, but I had to go with experience. I like Ebby Calvin “Nuke” LaLoosh’s million dollar arm in Bull Durham, but I don’t want someone with a five-cent head getting the start on Opening Day, so he’ll have to wait for game two.
Which means that our Opening Day starter will be Billy Chapel from For Love of the Game. When you wrap up your Hall of Fame career with a perfect game and demonstrate that “the cathedral that is Yankee Stadium belongs to a Chapel,” you’ve shown you have the moxie to get the Opening Day start.
There’s several noteworthy candidates to fill out the staff while pitching out of the bullpen, including Kit Hinson from League of the Their and Eddie Harris from Major League, but we know that it will be the Wild Thing, Ricky Vaughn from Major League, marching out of the bullpen to close games after a stellar career in the California Penal League. The team’s top pitching prospect is the newly signed Rigo (“Peanut Boy”) Sanchez from Trouble with the Curve.
So there’s the roster. But before we get away, we have to recognize that it takes more than players to run a team. You need a coaching staff, for example, and baseball movies have given us a few. Because they formed the best manager/coach duo, our team will be led by Pop Fisher and Red Blow from The Natural. There are other noteworthy coach/managers who can fill out the coaching staff, namely Frank Perry (For Love of the Game), Jimmy Dugan (League of Their Own) and Lou Brown (Major League). I’m big on character, so it’s against my better judgment, but I did save a spot for Morris Buttermaker from the Bad News Bears. Also in the dugout will be young Bobby Savoy (The Natural) as our batboy.
Billy Heywood from Little Big League was a choice for the coaching staff, but I realized that he has to be the team owner, since several other of the team owners portrayed are dirtbags. Think of Rachel Phelps from Major League and The Judge from The Natural. Heywood’s more seasoned ownership partners include Gary Wheeler (For Love of the Game) and candy bar mogul Walter Harvey (League of Their Own).
Also in the team’s administration is GM Ira Lowenstein (League of Their Own). He oversees a scouting staff that includes Gus Lobel (Trouble with the Curve) and Ernie Capadino (A League of Their Own). The latter is known for his skill in negotiating contracts, as demonstrated in signing the Hinson sisters. For astutely observing how much better Pete Taylor has been playing since his parents came to visit, Pete Klein (Trouble with the Curve) will head the team’s analytics department. Heading the scouting staff, and likely working her way up to GM on her own, is Mickey Lobel from Trouble with the Curve.
With such a varied range of experience on our team, there are bound to be injuries, and we’ve got the best possible medical staff in place. Heading the group is Doc Archibald (Moonlight) Graham from Field of Dreams. Assisting him, with specializations in providing CPR and overseeing the pool at the training facility, is Wendy Peffercorn from The Sandlot.
A team like this needs a place to play, and fortunately they have stadium architect extraordinaire Ray Kinsella (Field of Dreams). As noted above, I do have a backup plan for Crash Davis. He’ll assist Ray as groundskeeper, with particular expertise in managing the irrigation system. Also of note in game day management is Frank Drummond (Naked Gun), who will serve as stadium security. He’s also been known to fill in for Enrico Polazzo in singing the National Anthem.
A team like this certainly deserves media coverage. Again, there’s lots to choose from in the broadcasting department, since using an announcer is often part of what helps the plot flow in sports movies. They’re playing themselves, so our rules keep us from naming John Gordon (Little Big League), Vin Scully (For Love of the Game) and Curt Gowdy, Jim Palmer, Tim McCarver, Mel Allen, Dick Enberg and Dick Vitale, all from Naked Gun. But even if that rule didn’t apply, the broadcasting gig would still have to go to Harry Doyle from Major League.
And finally, we need someone to wax eloquent and write Roger Angell-like essays. The clear choice for that would be Terrance Mann.
So, how’d I do? Who’d I miss?

Full transparency: This is not a team intending to compete in 2022.  This team is loading up for 2023.
Trades and Extensions:
Sign Byron Buxton to a 7 year, 119M contract with incentives
Trade with Florida Marlins - Mitch Garver for SP Sixto Sanchez 
Trade with New York Mets - Josh Donaldson (plus 14M spread over two years) for RP Jose Butto
Let Colome walk.  Release Austidillo, Refsnyder, Minaya, and Cave.
Free Agency: 
Sign Corey Seager a 5 year 27M contract to play shortstop
Sign Michael Pineda back to a 2 year 24M contract with incentives
Sign Jon Gray to a 3 year 45M contract
Sign Sandy Leon to a 1 year, 2M contract
Sign Leury Garcia to a 1 year 5M contract
Sign Corey Knebel to a 3 year 24M contract
Sign Ehire Adrianza to a 2 year, 3M contract
Lineup/Defense
C - Jeffers  500k
1B - Kiriloff  500k
2B - Polanco 5.5M
SS - Seager 27M
3B - Arraez 2M
LF - Rooker 500k
CF - Buxton 17M
RF - Kepler 6.75M
DH - Sano 9.25M
Bench - Gordon 500k
Bench - Sandy Leon 2M
Bench - Leury Garcia 5M
Bench - Garlick or Larnach 500k
Bench - Adrianza 1.5M
Regular Lineup - Arraez-Buxton-Seager-Polanco-Kiriloff-Sano-Kepler-Rooker-Jeffers
Rotation/Bullpen
SP - Gray 15M
SP - Ryan 500k 
SP - Ober 500k
SP - Pineda 12M
SP - Sixto Sanchez 500k
CL - Rogers 6.7M
BP - Alcala 500k
BP - Duffey 3.7M
BP - Theilbar 1.2M
BP - Knebel 8M
BP - Dobnak 800k
BP - Gant 3.7
Total Salary: 138.6M  (Including the 7M deferred)
Rotation Depth: Gant, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Balazovic, Winder, Duran, SWR 
Bullpen Depth: Butto, Thorpe, Moran, Stashak, Strotman? Other assorted AA and AAA guys
OF Depth: Larnach needs to hit himself into a job. Marten should be a guy looking to get the job in LF.  As soon as mid-summer.  Almost the entire bench, plus Kiriloff and Arraez can also play in the OF.  
IF Depth - Adrianza is a jack of all trades, Gordon as well.  Being a lefty and a switch hitter gives some options for lineups.  Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda should be in this conversation mid-summer as well.
Catching depth: Leon exists to give Ben Rotrevedt time to be the long-term backup.  
 
The idea here is that 2022 is a transition year.  So, let Rooker/Larnach and Jeffers and Arraez play. Martin is going to take 2B or LF eventually.  Lewis and Miranda are going to be up to take over other positions eventually.  The team is strong up the middle, depth is better, and the team is primed for a 2023 coming out party.  Ditto the rotation - Gallen, Sanchez, Ryan, Ober, and the fleet of young arms gives this team options and upside.  Bullpen is stabilized.
 
By September 1 I’d love to see this group:  Seager-Buxton-Polanco-Kiriloff--Marten-Larnach-Miranda-Kepler-Jeffers  with a rotation of Gray-Ryan-Ober-Sanchez-Duran/Balazovic  That group is an upgrade here or there in 2023 from being a real force if we develop our talented youngsters.
 
 
 

Like Brent Rooker, Trevor Larnach has failed to impress in his rookie season, but Larnach has a lot more wiggle room for many fans. Larnach is, after all, 2 years younger than Rooker and Larnach barely played above the A+ ball level with only 181 plate appearances in AA in 2019. The loss of the 2020 season made a mess out of a lot of the projections for prospects with the prospects who were getting their first taste of the high minors in AA probably being hit the hardest. Larnach’s production this year hasn’t been what fans had hoped for, but with his limited upper MiLB experience, there’s reason to hope it was bad luck or a single pitch that troubled him on way to his .223/.322/.350, .677 OPS, wRC+ 89, OPS+ 88, wOBA .301 performance across a significant 301 appearances at the plate.

Since Larnach doesn’t have the MiLB track record Rooker does, it’s important to take a peek at who Larnach was expected to be. Prior to his draft year in 2018, Larnach was a 40th round draft pick out of high school in 2015 and wasn’t considered a high round pick before his breakout junior season at Oregon State.
Year Level Age AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS 2016 Oregon St. Freshman .157 .271 .176 .019 .448 2017 Oregon St. Sophomore .303 .421 .429 .126 .850 2018 Oregon St. Junior .348 .463 .652 .304 1.116 2018 Rk / Low-A a21 .303 .390 .500 .197 .890 2019 A+ / AA a22 .309 .384 .458 .149 .842 2021 MLB a24 .223 .322 .350 .127 .672 2021 AAA a24 .176 .323 .373 .197 .695 After the draft, MLB.com had Larnach as the Twins’ 6th ranked prospect and gave him scouting grades as follows: Hit 55, Power 55, Run 40, Arm 55, Field 50, Overall 50. Larnach was widely considered a bat only prospect due to his poor speed limiting Larnach to projections of a serviceable defensive option in left field. Larnach’s hit tool was considered very advanced as he drove the ball hard off the bat, had experience in the Cape Cod league with wooden bats against high levels of competition and used the entire field which largely made him immune to shifts. That said, Larnach’s hit tool wasn’t considered plus-plus because of the fair amount of swing and miss at the plate. Once in college, Larnach had raw strength and bat speed from putting on 50lbs of weight to his high school frame, but his draft stock stayed low through his sophomore year as he needed to hit for power to generate high interest levels. When Larnach’s power appeared to blossom with 19 home runs in 2018 as a junior in a tough college division, scouts rocketed Larnach up the draft ranks despite the limited track record as it was always felt he had the potential to grow into the long ball. 
Unfortunately, Larnach’s swing looks to be more like Joe Mauer than Justin Morneau so the home run power hasn’t re-materialized and 2018’s long ball show is beginning to look more like an aberration than the norm. Larnach’s ceiling is likely far lower now, but it doesn’t mean he can’t provide value at the MLB level using only an advanced hit tool and serviceable defense in the corners; he’s just not going to be projecting as a regular All Star. That would still be a huge win for the front office. So let’s dive into the metrics to see what’s going on cause this year was ugly.

First off, was Larnach just unlucky in his first taste of the big show? Luck can bounce both ways and a half season worth of baseball can quickly shift around across a full season of plate appearances.
  AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA Actual .223 .322 .350 .672 .301 Expected* .208 .309 .369 .678 .304 *BaseballSavant has xBA at .209 which results in 54.34 hits, but since that’s not a real number, I rounded down to 54 hits. His xSLG was .368 which resulted in 95.68 bases so I rounded up to 96 for xSLG calcs. I used Larnach’s actual walks and hit by pitch numbers to calculate his new xOBP so I could calculate his xOPS.
There isn’t an obvious luck factor to see in the numbers. A few points of AVG loss is more than made up for by some SLG improvement. As a player who was touted as using the whole field, Larnach has been pretty pull heavy with a 39.9% / 33.5% / 26.6% pull, center, opposite ratio, from BaseballSavant, but it’s not a profile where the split would be particularly effective. Still, Fangraphs reports MLB teams frequently deployed the shift against Larnach anyway. None of Larnach’s home runs went to the opposite field this year with virtually everything in left field just winding up as a single. The lack of home runs and extra base hits is to be expected once Larnach’s batted ball data is reviewed; he’s been a heavy ground ball hitter at about 45% grounders. Fangraphs and BaseballSavant differ in the fly ball data with Fangraphs showing 35.4% vs. BaseballSavant’s 29.7%. Despite the relatively poor outcomes for Larnach, he does hit the ball fairly hard as advertised with an above average 90.0 mph exit velocity, and MLB average-ish 41.1% hard hit and 9.5% barrel rates according to Statcast metrics. Larnach’s reported launch angle should be a productive, but non-optimal 13.1* despite all the grounders. It’s also worth looking into his splits performance, since he is a lefty. In regard to that, he was utterly unplayable against LHP with a wRC+ of 44, but his performance against RHP isn’t truly good enough to justify a platoon role with a wRC+ of 109. It does provide some silver lining since southpaws throw less than 30% of innings at the MLB level. A step forward could make Larnach a platoon type player.
 
 
 All this brings us to plate discipline. Larnach’s solid enough 10.3% walk rate suggests he has a capable enough eye at the plate, but the 34.6% strikeout rate is well below MLB average so lets dig in here a bit. Warning… here’s where it goes off the rails. Larnach has a somewhat better than average O-swing% (swings outside the strike zone) which supports the argument for an MLB caliber eye at the plate shown in the chart.

However, the PitchFX and PitchInfo data from Fangraphs O-contact% rates at abysmal 38.2% and 32.9%, respectively. Expanding beyond the O-swing results shows Larnach is passive at the plate, swinging only 43.8% of the time (bottom 17.5%) with the 3rd worst contact rate among the 252 batters with 300+ plate appearances in MLB this year. Lending support to being passive at the plate, Larnach takes a called strike 18.1% of the time, which is more often than over 3/4 of other MLB batters. Honestly, it looks like Larnach is struggling to tell balls from strikes so he’s hoping for a walk or a meatball, but when he does swing, he often misjudges the pitch and winds up whiffing. In fact, whiffing more often than 96% of other MLB batters with 300+ plate appearances based on Fangraphs’ data. It’s bad. It’s real bad.

We know Larnach is struggling with pitch recognition based on the data, but is it a specific pitch or pitch category where he might be able to adjust his game to prevent being exposed? Unfortunately, no. Larnach crushes 4 seam fastballs, but he doesn’t really hit much else. The data from BaseballSavant shows he’s utterly outmatched by MLB secondary pitches in general.
  xBA xSLG xwOBA Whiff% Fastball .266 .515 .377 22.3 Breaking .155 .236 .260 55.0 Offspeed .158 .225 .192 54.0 Looking into Larnach’s run value by pitch on BaseballSavant shows Larnach cannot identify a changeup (18.4% of pitches), cannot handle sliders (19.0% of pitches) and also struggles greatly against sinkers (15.9% of pitches). Larnach has been a little better than MLB average against curveballs (11.3% of pitches), though. Essentially, don’t throw Larnach a 4 seamer or curveball and the opposing pitcher will probably be fine. It’s worth noting Fangraphs’ data from PitchFX and PitchInfo both back up BaseballSavant’s data. Comparing Larnach to other MLB hitters based on PitchFX data from Fangraphs, Larnach is in the bottom 5% for changeup and bottom 30% for the slider performance, but that’s a raw runs produced number without context of how many pitches he’s seen of each. Looking at BaseballSavant, Larnach is bottom 4% for changeup (7/175), 9% for slider (25/290) and 11% for sinker (25/245) per pitch seen, based on hitters with at least 50 plate appearances vs. those pitches. There are literally no pitches which Larnach produces positive value other than the 4 seam fastball… and maybe ever so slightly, the curveball depending on the source.
Defensively, Larnach’s speed is his limiting factor already at just age 24. Larnach’s sprint speed is 26.5ft/sec which is significantly below median for MLB or corner outfielders at 27.3 or 27.5ft/sec, respectively. That said, Larnach does accelerate to his top speed quickly and he’s been an average MLB route runner despite limited experience. This lives up to the scouting reports at draft day which said Larnach possesses good baseball instincts in the field to help make up for his disadvantage in speed. In addition, Larnach has arm strength which is graded above average which should help prevent base runners from confidently stretching their hits for another base or carelessly tagging to advance. Larnach is unlikely to ever be an average or plus defender on the field, but he may remain serviceable for a few years, especially with good positioning and a steady position to play.
Let’s summarize the good and bad here. On the good side of things, Larnach can clearly crush 4 seamers and was solid against curveballs despite his limited experience against high level pitching and loss of the 2020 season for development against full competition. Pitchers looking to get an out aren’t going to be able to do it with Larnach at the plate simply by throwing heat past him as he’ll catch up to it and make them pay and woe be the righty pitcher who with a 4 seamer and curveball as their bread and butter. When Larnach makes contact with his swings, he hits the ball a little better than the MLB average hitter with good exit velocity and he was able to accomplish those things despite having very little experience at the high MiLB level. Larnach’s instincts in the field are good, he makes the most of his physical abilities and the combination of skills and ability allow him to play corner outfield effectively enough so he’s not a glorified DH at this point in his career. Furthermore, Larnach was just getting a good taste of AA before the lost 2020 season and his call up to the MLB squad was potentially hastened by other player injuries, perhaps a bit earlier than the Twins wanted. With encouraging numbers from AA in 2019, the 2021 campaigns struggles may just be a bad season influenced by confidence issues and Larnach is still relatively young coming into his age 25 season next year. Finally, Larnach has plenty of MLB options left to give him room to take a step forward. Of course, that’s the optimistic view. On the not good side, Larnach is not particularly young for a prospect, either as he approaches the end point for prospect status at age 25, and while he did lose out on 2020 in terms of professional seasons, he was part of the Twins alternate site where he got a lot of valuable coaching time. Larnach was arguably more advanced than other college juniors when he was drafted because of his experience in the Cape Cod league which uses wooden bats and he was scouted as a polished bat who wouldn’t need much time to get up to MLB ready. He’s had some time now and his small, but somewhat  relevant sample size from his demotion to AAA wasn’t encouraging. There’s a big difference between AA and AAA when it comes to location and refinement of pitches, the polish, so to speak. There are a lot of players who can’t make that adjustment and given how poorly Larnach handled MLB pitches, it may not be a coincidence he wasn’t able to hit in AAA. In fact, Larnach was totally and completely outmatched by most pitches MLB pitchers throw and his track record, age, current swing and batted ball data don’t leave a lot of room for power projection so being the kind of hitter who can simply punish any mistake for a home run like Sano doesn’t seem like it’s in the cards. 
Clearly, it would be foolish to write Trevor Larnach off at this point, but there's good reason to cool his stock dramatically. Let's hope he can make some adjustments to prove this data isn't the norm and he just had a bad season!
 

Well... do you, punk?
Last July, we started a new community initiative where we offer prizes for the most liked posts and blog entries on the site. We'll post these awards four times a year: first half of the season, second half of the season, offseason, and spring training. Probably. Unless it becomes a miserable experience, at which point we reserve the right to stop at any time.
These prizes... aren't great, to put it bluntly. They kinda stemmed me from reading comic books in the 1980s and loving the "No-Prize" award in every letters page written by the editor of Marvel Comics, signed off by Stan Lee and wow... I'm getting old real fast with that sentence so I'm gonna stop.
But the prizes, while not great, are incredible.
This season has been such a train wreck, such a total collapse of all things at once, such a complete and utter failure across the board that it was difficult to decide which of the many ripe fruits I should pick off the Minnesota Twins 2021 tree to celebrate this season finally coming to a close. But ultimately, I had to go back to the source of our collective misfortune and, at that point, it became clear what most needed celebration: the 2021 Minnesota Twins bullpen. And once that clicked into place, I realized there was only one place I could go with the second half community prize:
A Ron Davis commemorative display.
This display not only features Ron Davis' epic 1984 campaign with the Minnesota Twins but it also features Ron Davis' epic 1984 campaign with the Minnesota Twins.
2021 Twins fans surely can commiserate with everything I said - and didn't say - in that sentence.
But there's more than just a few trinkets included in this display, as the below video will show to you skeptics still standing in the back:
Ron Davis Commemorative Display Prize Ron Davis Prize.mp4
Yes, you heard that right. That is Grammy award-winning artist Sarah McLachlin singing her 1997 hit "Angel" from her 8x platinum album, Surfacing.
So if you have the nerve, feel the moxy, can be the spoon, will channel your inner Randball's Stu... this perfect piece of Twins history could be yours, all you have to do is write the most popular post in the Twins Daily community. That could be a comment on a news story, a reply to a blog post, or even a blog comment.
For the lucky person who can be all those things to all those people all at the same time, you will win the ultimate piece of Minnesota Twins memorabilia.
I know, you just want this thing so much but remember, YOU HAVE TO EARN IT.
Just like Ron Davis.

With the 2021 season just about wrapped up for the Minnesota Twins, here’s yet another article to talk about starting pitching and why dumpster diving or even mid-tier free agent starters are actually much riskier than the top free agent starters with those big contracts.
Conventional Twins wisdom is that big name, free agent starters are simply too expensive and too risky. Jim Pohlad is very skittish when it comes to long contracts and big dollars. The idea of “crippling” a roster also sends some Twins fans into a panic. It makes sense, after all, the Twins free agent pitchers almost never actually pan out for more than a year.
For this year, the Twins’ front office decided not to pursue an arm to replace Odorizzi, leaving a major hole in the middle of the rotation. Instead, Happ and Shoemaker were signed to contracts all too typical of the Twins’ front office. The cost? $10MM utterly wasted. That said, the Twins are absolutely spending ace starter money in free agency and acquisitions every single year and have been spending $30-43MM annually for those arms for 7 consecutive seasons coming into 2021. I even adjusted the salaries for players which were traded away… Read it and weep.
Median WAR = middle bWAR season performance with 2020 being multiplied by 2.7 due to the shortened season. Total WAR = Total bWAR over the life of the entire contract, even if the player was traded away. $/WAR = Entire Contract Dollars, Adjusted for 2020 / Total bWAR, Not Adjusted for 2020. The salary figures shown are not adjusted for 2020 so they can be viewed in proper context.  
  Med. Tot $                 Player WAR WAR /WAR 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Correia -1.1 -1.1 -5 6               Pelfrey 0.4 0.8 13.8 6 6             Hughes -0.1 5.5 11.9 8 9 9 13 8 7     Nolasco 0.5 2 24 12 12 8 4         Milone 0.8 0.9 8.1   3 5           Santana 0.5 9.8 5.6   14 14 14 14 1     Santiago 0.2 0.3 32.7     2 8         Odorizzi 1.2 4.4 6.1         6 10 18   Pineda 0.8 3.3 8         2 8 10 10 Lynn 0.4 0.4 25         10       Perez 0.1 0.1 40           4     Maeda 2.7 1.8 2.7             3 3 Bailey 0.5 0.2 22             7   Hill 2.1 0.8 2.4             3   Shoemaker -1.9 -1.9 -1.1               2 Happ -1.8 -1.8 -4.4               8                           Season Total 31 43 37 38.7 39.8 29.5 40.8 23
 
In fact, almost none of the Twins signings and acquisitions were worth it, including the starters who were actually “worth the money” because they still weren’t worth starting. For example, Tommy Milone only cost $8.1MM / WAR. That’s an A grade signing. He was worth every bit of the money he was paid, on am average season. But he still wasn’t good enough to actually want him in the rotation. What about Ervin Santana? We all know what a huge asset he was over his first couple seasons and the Twins got one WAR for only $5.6MM which is an A+ kind of deal. The big issue is he was terrible over his last two years, dragging his median performance way down.
Ace = 4.0 WAR+ #2 = 3.0-4.0 WAR #3 = 2.5-3.0 WAR #4 = 2.0-2.5 WAR #5 = 1.5-2.0 WAR I’ve also adjusted the median values for 2020’s short season. That’s the problem with dumpster dives and even mid-tier free agents. All it takes is a slight decline and poof, all the money is utterly wasted because you’re paying guaranteed money to a starter who isn’t worth playing.
Well, everybody knows big free agent contracts never work out though, right? Wrong. Big name, free agent starters are almost always worth it. This is for two reasons. First, they often perform at ace levels even if they decline a bit, but if they take a major hit or injury, they almost always bounce back as a solid starter in the rotation. The money is virtually never totally wasted like it often is on mediocre or low cost starters. Of the 8 front line free agent starters signed since 2014, every single one of them has been worth a rotation spot in an average year. Most are even good deals. Don’t believe me again?
  Med. Tot $                                 Player WAR WAR /WAR Future? 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Grade Lester 2.1 13.2 9.6 - 30 20 20 23 25 28                 B Greinke 4.2 17.9 10.3 - 34 34 34 35 35 35                 C Scherzer 5.5 41.4 4.1 - 17 22 22 22 37 36 35 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 A+ Price 1.8 11.1 13.9 F   30 30 30 31 32 32 32             F Darvish 5.6 7.6 9.9 A       25 20 22 22 19 18           B Corbin 4.1 5.4 8.6 F         15 19 24 23 24 35         A Cole 5.6 7.6 6.4 A           36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 A Wheeler 6.8 7.6 3.45 A           22 23 26 25 24         A+ Strasburg 0 0 Inf F           24 24 24 24 24 24 24 27 27 F- *The summary is updated to reflect the addition of Strasburg to the chart. I decided against adding Bauer. Bauer doesn't have a long term contract, and part of the reason FA ace caliber pitchers are a low risk is a single lost season is easy to overcome. Among the 9 listed starters, only 3 have lost an entire season (Price x1.5, Darvish, Strasburg x2). Of the 38 seasons on the contracts from the 9 starters, 4.5 seasons have been lost. A risk of a starter losing a season is approximately 10% per contract season.
Right now, Corbin and Strasburg both look like a bad deals, but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if they rebounded. If you look at those contracts, something really stands out to me. Only Strasburg has played poorly enough so the team who signed them wouldn’t have wanted in the rotation and 6 of the 8 are bonefide ace level pitchers on their average season. Even David Price with all his injuries and down performance is worth trotting out there. Also, 7 of 8 of those front line starters have been absolutely C or better signings. Here’s how I’d arbitrarily grade signings based on the dollars spent per WAR.
$16MM+ = F- $14-16MM = F $12-14MM = D $10-12MM = C $9-10MM = B $6-9MM = A 0-6MM = A+ To sum it up, the scary big contracts for front line starters almost always work out over the life of the contract, and even when they don’t work out exactly as intended, the pitchers are almost always worth running out there every 5 days as part of the rotation. However, the low end and middle of the rotation arms are almost never worth it based on nearly a decade of track record by the Twins and over a dozen such starting pitchers. Considering the Twins absolutely do not need any #4-5 starters, the front office also needs to stop wasting money with their annual dumpster dive, refocus and acquire top pitching talent. After all, it’d barely cost more on an annual basis to replace the typical free agent signings they’ve been wasting money on to sign two top of the rotation arms as they’re available.

Following the success of the recent 1991 Twins 30th Anniversary Celebration at Target Field, here's a preview of a future milestone, the 2021 Twins 30th Anniversary Celebration from the year 2051.   (EDITOR'S NOTE: As time travel can introduce many unintended consequences, especially for the gambling conglomerate which owns Twins Daily in 2051, we have attempted to remove any references to specific baseball events that haven't yet occurred.) Once again, Dick Bremer hosted the 2051 proceedings by himself, as none of his 156 different broadcast partners from the 2021 season were memorable enough to recall. What follows is a transcript of the event from Target Field, broadcast exclusively in 2051 within the Caesar's Palace Sports app (blackout restrictions still apply).

[2051 DICK BREMER HOVERS AT A PODIUM OVER TARGET FIELD, AGELESS LIKE HIS NAMESAKE DICK CLARK]
BREMER: Many call it the worst Twins season of all-time. Some consider it matched only by [YEAR OF FUTURE AWFUL TWINS SEASON REDACTED]. Blown saves; trade deadline sales; viruses in the clubhouse; no fans in the stands and few watching -- legally, anyway -- at home. Like a Bizarro Lake Wobegon, it was a team where all pitchers were somehow below average. Tonight we will relive that trauma from 30 years ago.
We have many of the players from that roster here tonight, even [PRONOUNCES CAREFULLY] Tzu-Wei Lin, and a majority of the 57 different pitchers used by the Twins in that fateful 2021 season.   At first base, his strikeout rate was legendary in his time, even if it seems low now by 2051 standards; the "Boquetón" now retired to Boca Raton, Miguel Sanó.
  At second base, fans may "blank" on his brief time with the Twins, but he'll always be designated for assignment in our hearts: Travis Blankenhorn.
  At shortstop, the only thing hotter than Andrelton Simmons's glove was his Twitter takes. Simmons could not attend tonight, as he is accepting an honorary doctorate from YouTube University. So instead I present a [AIR QUOTES] "mystery" shortstop that all true Twins fans should recognize. [NOBODY RECOGNIZES THE PLAYER, WHO IS J.T. RIDDLE.]
  At third base, he is known as the "Bringer of Rain" for washing away all sticky stuff from major league baseball forevermore; still somehow the most expensive free agent in Twins history even after 30 more years of inflation, Commissioner Josh Donaldson.
  In the outfield, it's -- a bunch of infielders! [TZU-WEI LIN LEADS A SILENT PARADE OF PLAYERS ACROSS THE OUTFIELD; NICK GORDON, HOWEVER, REMAINS ON THE BENCH.]
  Designated hitter Nelson Cruz, appearing by Zoom hologram from Las Vegas where he is playing tonight for the A's.
  On the mound, the starting pitcher who in 2021 made the third of his improbable [REDACTED NUMBER] separate stints with the Twins, Andrew Albers. And in the bullpen, the person who traveled the least distance to be here, Caleb Thielbar.
  Finally, at every position, including catcher, pitcher, mascot, and head groundskeeper, La Tortuga himself, Willians Astudillo!   [SEVERAL MINUTES OF THUNDEROUS APPLAUSE AS ASTUDILLO DRIVES THE LATE T.C. BEAR'S FOUR-WHEELER TO EACH POSITION FOR A CURTAIN CALL, LOSING AND RETRIEVING HIS HELMET EACH TIME.]   Throwing out tonight's ceremonial first pitch is second generation Twins waiver claim Ralph Garza Jr. Jr. [NOT A TYPO]. And catching the first pitch, the lab-created genetic combination of the 2021 Twins front office, and current 2051 Twins intern, T.D. Falvine. [FAN-ACTIVATED ANGRY FACE EMOJIS SCROLL ACROSS THE FIELD AS THE FIRST PITCH IS THROWN.]   And now, please enjoy tonight's intra-continental game between your Minnesota Twins and their legendary opponent from the 1991 World Series, the recently renamed Hotlanta Braves. Our 2051 sponsor, Amazon Prime Time Travel, received a commission for any thoughts you had while reading this.

I see Nick Gordon has been sent down and Refsnyder brought up. I understand the logic; Gordon has been hitting around .200 with no walks or power for the last month and Refsnyder was hot earlier before he got hurt. We're evaluating both for 2022. 
My question is what does everyone see for Gordon going forward? Given his play this year, do you think the Twins need to keep him on the 40 man roster or could He survive the Rule 5 draft? Do you see a long term future for him with the Twins? We could use the 40 man spot but I am concerned about losing him in the draft since he would be easy for a losing team to stash for a season. 

We often comment on whether current Twins are good, average or bad hitters by using OPS. The problem I see is we're using a broad average for everyone not broken down by position. I looked around the Internet and found an article in ScoreSheetWiz where the author had taken the average of the top 30 players in each position over the last 3 years and averaged their OPS. That should give you what the average starter in MLB does at that position by taking out emergency fill ins, utility players,  etc. and sounds like a good basis for comparison. Here's the comparison to current Twins, based on their performance for this season to date. I've also put their career OPS in parenthesis with the YTD comparison where they'd been around long enough to make that meaningful. The positions go from lowest to highest by MLB average OPS. 
Position Average OPS Current Twin OPS/(Career) Difference Catcher .748 Garver .889 (.834) Plus .151 (+ .86)     Jeffers .720 Minus .028 Shortstop .749 Simmons .576 (.688) Minus .173 (-.061) Second Base .763 Polanco .797 (.774) Plus .034 (+.011) Centerfield .777 Buxton 1.176 (.751) Plus .409 (-.026)     Kepler .759 Minus .018 Third Base .805 Donaldson .840 (.875) Plus .035 (+.070)     Arraez .747 (.793) Minus .058 (-.012) Corner OF .819 Kepler .722 (.759) Minus .097 (-060)     Larnach .676 Minus .143     Rooker .750 Minus .069 First Base .859 Kirilloff .722 Minus .137     Sano .746 (.819) Minus .113 (-.040) I thought this was kind of interesting and helps explain where our holes are forward. For example, Arraez is a below average hitting starter this year either at 3rd or left-field, about average in 2nd base, but career wise above average at 2nd base, average at 3rd, and below average for corner outfield. Since he adds no surplus defensive value, he really needs to OPS >.800 if he's not going to play 2nd base. Kepler is a little tougher to evaluate since his bat is clearly significantly below average for a corner outfielder, and a little below average for centerfielder, but he does offer surplus defensive value in a corner outfield spots, not so much centerfield. That's why I think is an ideal 3rd or 4th outfielder, but not 1 of our top 2. The 2 Rookies are way below average but this is their 1st year so you hope for improvement and it's a small sample size. Same for Kirilloff. Sano is also a below average hitting starter at 1st Base who doesn't offer any surplus defensive value. I didn't bother with guys like Jake Cave (.508 (.735)) or Willians Astudillo (.721 (.738)) since they are way below an average starter unless they play shortstop, and even then they're not very strong. Both are classic back end roster filler and we should be looking for upgrades like Gordon, Refsnyder and others.
I do think this helps explain why we're having trouble scoring runs. We only have 3 above average hitters for their position now that Cruz is gone, Donaldson, Polanco and Garver, and only Polanco really plays every day. Most days we're liable to only have 2 players who are average or better hitters for their position. The batting order is really weighed down by poor performance at the corner outfield spots, centerfield when Buxton isn't there (even worse when someone other than Kepler is playing centerfield), and shortstop.
I guess this tells me 4 things 1st, re-sign Buxton. He is critical to the order. 2nd, I was wrong about Donaldson. He is pretty valuable at the plate and Arraez is not an adequate replacement. 3rd, we need better hitting corner outfielders and Kepler is not the answer. The current strategy of playing Rooker and Larnach every day is the right one because those guys have to improve to give us more balance in the order. 4th, Arraez is probably best used as a utility player with Polanco the better hitter and better fielder at 2nd base. He's a good utility player, more of an average hitter for a starter, and we can get him 400 – 500 bats to utilize his on-base skills by playing him at a variety of spots.
We talk a lot about how the pitching has to improve to truly contend. I postulate the lineup has to improve as well. I think most contending have average or better hitters for their positions in at least 5 or 6 of the 9 spots. We have 4 if you assume that someone like that Cruz is the DH, a position where I was unable to find an average OPS. otherwise 3. The current lineup isn't good enough to compete and absolutely isn't good enough if the pitching is below average. Helps explain this year's performance and helps us know what we need to do for next year.

Before we look into our crystal balls post-deadline, a quick review of what's just transpired might be in order.  First, we lost our best hitter and best pitcher.  For this very reason, chances are this season is going to get even worse.  Three of our new starters will likely be Ober, Jax and Barnes, none of whom figures to be better than a #5 starter.  The bullpen has arguably gotten worse without Rogers and Robles.  And the offense will likely continue to be erratic -  some big run production outings against below average pitching, but more likely low run production against even average pitching.  And with a very difficult August schedule, the likelihood of the Twins climbing out of the cellar looks mighty slim.
But let's look at the bright side.  The Twins prospect depth greatly improved.  We've added at least 3 top 10 prospects, probably catapulting our depleted, injury-stricken minor league system into the top ten in MLB, at least on paper anyway.  And just as importantly, we kept several players who can be building blocks going forward.  You cannot underestimate the importance of Maeda and Pineda, solid #2 and #3 starters in leading a reenergized rotation in 2021.  Nor can you ignore the importance of having a Donaldson and hopefully healthy Buxton leading the offense next year.  Which brings me to my first point :  they need to resign both Pineda and Buxton if this team has any chance of jumping into contention in 2023.   This team will likely not be a playoff contender next year but for them to bounce back to at least a .500 record and set the stage for contention in 2023, these 4 players must be kept..
Continuing on the bright side, this FO did a great job in the trade department.  They received at least 3-4 players who should be playing in the big leagues as soon as next year, but most likely by 2023.  The rotation's future looks much brighter with guys like Joe Ryan and SWR, not to mention our top prospects, Winder and Balozavic, should yield one or two rotation mainstays by 2023.  Which brings me to point#2:  Sign a FA with ace potential this offseason.  My first choice is Syndergaard who should be more affordable due to injury but still young enough to lead a contending staff.  He should be an offseason priority.  This is a risk but one well worth taking if the team is committed to rebounding quickly.  The new additions will also mitigate against rushing some of our younger prospects and perhaps switching some to relievers.
Which brings me to the bullpen.  We added some middling prospects, one of whom might prove valuable in the pen.  We still have Rogers, Duffy and Thielbar, with a few minor leaguers on the verge.  Let;s bring up guys like Cano, Hamilton, and Moran and see how they do.  Coulombe has looked decent.  Point #3:  they must spend the $ for a top FA reliever.  Any suggestions?  I'm at a loss here.  And let's try to get Alcala straightened out at AAA now, as well as transitioning Duran to the pen.  This is still a dumpster fire but at least it can't get much worse than it is now.
So count me as positive for the retool.  It sure beats a long rebuild!!

The conversation on this site as of late has been centered around should we trade player X, should we keep player Y, etc.
We don’t have much else to talk about.
If we are talking about trading assets, especially ones that are controllable and add value to your club next year and beyond, it raises the question – are you re-tooling or are you re-building?
Now I know that a lot of people might say its too early to even think about what next years team might look like, it might be. But if your argument is “re-tool” then we need to look at what that might look like.
We all are aware that Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and Taylor Rogers are set to become free agents following next season.
Contract extensions for both Buxton and Berrios seems incredibly unlikely at this point. Both players have their flaws but are absolutely pieces you can build around. Taylor Rogers is one of the best relievers in the game, but is set to become a free agent, is going on age 32, and the front office has never paid more than 6.5 million for a reliever aside from two occasions (Reed and Colome)
But throw all that out the window.
 What if they decide to give next year a go with Buxton, Berrios, and Rogers?
What does a retool look like?  
I am ignoring the return that the pending free agents might be able to get you at the upcoming deadline, mostly because It’s not a given that can contribute next year. It could be a few low A prospects for all we know.
I will also be using John Bonnes’s article on how much the Twins might have to potentially spend next year, that you can read here, as reference for my spending – 45 million dollars.
The lineup, bench, and pitching staff I have put together is just a projection and very well could be different then what the Twins or you think it might look like. Please don’t roast me too harshly in the comments.
 
Lineup
Byron Buxton
CF
Max Kepler
RF
Trevor Larnach
LF
Josh Donaldson
3rd
 
SS
Jorge Polanco
2nd
Alex Kirilloff
1st
Mitch Garver
C
 
DH
Andrelton Simmons SS
Nelson Cruz DH
Bench
Luis Arraez
UTI.
Ryan Jeffers
C
Miguel Sano
1st/DH
Nick Gordon
UTI
 
Rotation
José Berríos
SP
Kenta Maeda
SP
 
SP
 
SP
Bailey Ober
SP
Michael Pineda
JA Happ
 
Bullpen
Taylor Rogers
Closer
Jorge Alcala
Set up
 
Set up
Tyler Duffey
Set up
Caleb Thielbar
Mid
 
Mid
 
Mid
 
Long
Alex Colome
Hansel Robles
 
Here are the holes the Twins are going to need to fill entering 2022 season.
Shortstop Designated Hitter Starter x2 Bullpen x4 __________
I am spending most of my 45 million dollar budget I have available on the rotation, as I view that as the biggest need the Twins have if they hope to compete in 2022. So, forgive me for slightly skimming over DH and Shortstop.
Let’s start with how the Twins can round out the empty spots in the rotation and bullpen with what they presently have in the organization and who they could potentially add from outside the organization.
Internal Options
Name
AGE
LVL
ERA
GS
W/L
IP
K’s
BB’s
Jhoan Duran *
23
AAA
5.06
4
0-3
16.0
22
13
Josh Winder
24
AAA
1.94
11
4-0
60.1
73
12
Jordan Balazovic
22
AA
4.44
6
1-1
24.1
33
8
Matt Canterino *
23
A+
1.00
4
1-0
18.0
35
3
Blayne Enlow *
22
A+
1.84
3
1-1
14.1
23
6
These are the Twins top 5 pitching prospects
Duran is currently on the shelf with elbow soreness, something you never want to hear. The Twins shut him down for 6 weeks and we have 4 weeks remaining. To this point control has been a huge issue at AAA for him. Josh Winder has been fantastic. One of the lone bright spots for the Twins pitching prospects this season and I think you could expect him to contribute on some level in 2022. Balazovic has only made 6 starts this season working back from injury. Currently at AA, he has yet to make it through 6ip in any start this season. Canterino has not pitched since May but was having a great year at A+. I have not seen any reports on what a timetable looks like for his return. Enlow was off to a great start as well, but elbow soreness led to Tommy John so he’s out for the foreseeable future.
It is only July, so things can change. But the top pitching prospects the Twins have are all dealing with stunted development timelines due to injuries. Duran is not coming back till August and has the dreaded elbow soreness so who knows what that means long term. He has not pitched more than 16 innings at AAA. Balazovic is still at AA and has only thrown 24 innings. Canterino has not pitched since May and Enlow is done for 2022 and 2023.
Josh Winder is the only prospect you have of the 5 that has pitched well above the AA level in 2021.
That's 1/5 of your top 5 pitching prospects you can truly count on to make some sort of impact in 2022 for the Twins. I do want to say that I believe in this group a lot, I think they all will be assets the Twins can count on for years to come. But is that in 2022? Don’t bank on it.
 
Name
AGE
ERA
GS
W/L
IP
K’s
BB’s
Lewis Thrope
25
5.59
6 (23g)
0-2
14.0
46
24
Devin Smeltzer
25
4.26
7 (19g)
4-2
69.2
56
18
Griffin Jax
26
8.66
1 (5g)
1-1
17.2
14
8
Randy Dobnak
26
4.85
20 (32g)
9-11
118.2
75
30
"candidates"
This was worse than I thought. Not really prospects, more so “candidates” to fill out spots for the 2022 Twins pitching staff. Anyways, I just went with their career numbers because all 4 players have been hurt throughout the 2021 season. I don’t even want to write out the numbers they have posted thus far, it’s painful.
If you confidently think one of these guys will help you win games during the 2022 season, I’d love to hear why in the comments below. Anyways, moving on.
 
Here is a look at what the Twins could bring in from outside the organization for pitching help.
External Options
The old fellas (37+)
Max Scherzer Zach Greinke Justin Verlander Charlie Morton Highly, highly doubt any of these guys have interest in signing with the Twins. Aside from Scherzer, do you want the Twins to make a run at them? Pass, and they all say no thanks too.
Tier 1
Lance Lynn Marcus Stroman Kevin Gausman Carlos Rondon Tier 1 does not make much sense to me. None of them are better than Berrios and if you are not going to pay him the 5 / 115mil we all expect him to get, why would you pay Marcus Stroman or Kevin Gausman somewhere in the range of 5 / 90mil? I think the sox can and will retain both Rondon and Lynn as well.
Tier 2
Jon Gray Michael Pineda Robbie Ray Martin Perez Danny Duffy Zach Davies Not super inspiring. Jon Gray and Robbie Ray are probably the most appealing options. Pineda’s recent arm injury puts things up in the air for his future.
We can skip the Martin Perez option as I cannot imagine the Twins getting back into that.
Danny Duffy would be nice, but do you really want to commit something like 3 / 40mil to a guy going on 35?
Tier 3
Noah Syndergaard Chris Archer Corey Kluber None of them are currently healthy, nor have they been the past 2 years. Syndergaard is interesting but even he is a question mark going into next year as he’s on the IL right now after issues following TJ.
Trade Targets?
German Marquez John Means Zach Gallen The Rockies, Orioles, and Diamondbacks are all rebuilding. They are not moving assets for someone like Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco. So, what can you offer up?
Royce Lewis? Then your selling low on your best prospect. Balazovic or Duran? Welp, that would be, um, something when your desperate for pitching. Arraez? Jose Miranda? One of Jeffers / Garver? Not sure that moves the needle, nor are they prospects teams would covet…. After that, nothing is getting you a Marquez, Means, or Gallen.
Now how about one of Trevor Larnach or Alex Kirilloff for pitching? It is an interesting idea and could dramatically change the Twins long term question mark at the position. You would have to be really sold on Max Kepler bouncing back.
_____
Let’s fill out the rotation with 2 players from each tier 1 & 2 of starting pitchers.
Gausman/Stroman/Lynn/Rondon Gray/ /Ray/ /Duffy Ok that realistically will command something in the range of 28 million. Take your pick of who that may be.
I do want to point this out, you are not going to be able to sign anyone from Tier 1 to a 1-year deal. You will have to sign them to multiyear commitments with real money involved.
Even Tier 2, id imagine most players will take no less than 2-year deals.
You could sign 3 players from tier 2. Go a similar direction as they have in the past bargain shopping (Happ, Lynn, Shoemaker, etc.)
Though that has not really worked out, so I am switching things up in my scenario.
_____
As for the bullpen. It is anyone’s best guess. They are not signing Craig Kimbrel and after that its just a bunch of names to be quite honest. You can check out the list here.
______
For the sake of the “re-tool” argument
I am committing 3 million to signing 2 no name relievers like the front office has done every year.
We have now committed something in the ballpark of 31 million to revamp the pitching staff, with 2 new starters and 2 no name relievers (it’s anyone’s guess).
_______
They now have 14 million remaining to fill the holes at Shortstop and DH.
Designated Hitter
The Designated Hitter class, surprise, is also poor.
Nelson Cruz is going to probably be too expensive and may even retire. Id love him back though. But we have more pressing needs.
After that, we can choose between Jorge Soler or Khris Davis. But why sign either of those guys when you have Miguel Sano on the roster?
Brent Rooker? You could let em duke it out in Spring Training.
Lets scratch signing a DH.
_____
Shortstop
On to Shortstop. They could move Jorge Polanco from 2nd base back to short and slide Luis Arraez in at 2nd. But I am not sure they want that defensive plan up the middle again.
Nick Gordon, who was drafted as a shortstop, does not seem to be viewed as shortstop anymore. Other than Royce Lewis, who has question marks already staying at short long-term, has never played above AA, and coming off an ACL injury, the Twins lack internal options.
We do not have the money to sign one of the crown jewels of the class so you can forget about Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Brandon Crawford.
I do think Javier Baez is a notch below those guys and he probably would be open to a shorter-term deal. Maybe something like 1 / 14 mil? He has a .282 OBP to this point, though slugging .778. It will be interesting to see what the market is for him.
The 2nd Tier in the SS class consists of Freddy Galvis, Alcides Escobar, Andrelton Simmons and Jose Iglesias.
As for trade options, Dansby Swanson could be available if the Braves decide to go after a big name. Other than that, I do not see a ton being available or frankly anything that intriguing.
I am rolling with Javy Baez on the 1yr / 14 mil deal. Twins get lucky, sign Berrios’s brother in-law, and see how it plays out. It is a nice bridge while we wait for Royce Lewis.
______
We have run through the options, lets look at what we got to compete in 2022.
Lineup
Byron Buxton
CF
Max Kepler
RF
Trevor Larnach
LF
Josh Donaldson
3rd
Javier Baez
SS
Jorge Polanco
2nd
Alex Kirlloff
1st
Mitch Garver
C
Miguel Sano
DH
 
Bench
Luis Arraez
UTI.
Ryan Jeffers
C
Jose Miranda
3rd/DH
Nick Gordon
UTI
 
Rotation
Jose Berrios
SP
Kenta Maeda
SP
Gausman/Stroman/Lynn/Rondon
SP
Gray/Ray/Duffy
SP
Bailey Ober
SP
 
Bullpen
Taylor Rogers
Closer
Jorge Alcala
Set up
No Name #1
Set up
Tyler Duffey
Set up
Caleb Thielbar
Mid
No Name #2
Mid
Randy Dobnak
Mid
Devin Smeltzer
Long
 
Again, this is in no way what the Twins are going to do, merely an idea of what a “re-tool” might look like. So, before you rip me in the comments for signing the wrong guys or not doing what you think they should or should not do, this exercise gives you a glimpse into the options the Twins have both internally and externally to build a competitive team in 2022 for one last run with Buxton, Berrios, and Rogers all together.
So now you can ask yourself the questions that matter.
Does that team win the central? Does it win a wild card berth? Are you putting the organization in the best possible to position to compete with the White Sox the next 4-5 years? Do we have a pipeline of pitching prospects we are confident in? I think that this team can be competitive. 85-88 wins? thats barring everyone being healthy. This is all hinging on Polanco continuing to swing the bat well, Kepler being more consistent, Maeda returning somewhat to his old self, Bailey Ober continuing to pitch as well as he has, Thielbar, Duffey, and Alcala continue being trusted options, etc.
There's a lot of question marks. My concerns mainly start with depth of the minor league system, specifically pitching.
Where do they stand with Berrios and Buxton on extensions? If I'm either player, im a year away from free agency, why would I take an extension now? If you sign the players to help you compete in 2022, do you even have enough money left to try and pay them?
At the end of the day the front office’s job is to do what’s best for the organization. The last thing any GM wants to do is plays catch up because they were not proactive. If you have doubts about any of those questions you need to shift your focus to 2023 and beyond.
That might mean moving Jose Berrios and Taylor Rogers at the deadline.
Which is a hard pill to swallow for some fans, but it is the smart thing and the right thing to do.

I’d like to discuss the way I see forward for the Minnesota Twins to become a team ready for a deep playoff run or World Series victory. The focus will be on top quality pitching. I’ll use a couple of case studies of teams that had very deep and strong pitching and great success, those teams being the 1980 Baltimore Orioles and the 1972-1974 Oakland A’s.
Then I’ll take a look at how the Twins can get to that level.
First, how did I get to this point of believing pitching is more important than I originally thought?
Although, a Twins fan since 1964, the media and options for following the Twins on a more comprehensive level only opened up to me in the 1970s. I lived in Toledo, Ohio but had discovered the Twins at Tinker Field in Orlando when my Dad took me to a game vs. the Cincinnati Reds. The Twins won and the rest was history for me!
In the 1960s it was linescores in the newspaper and the occasional game of the week with Joe Garagiola and Tony Kubek. 
Then one glorious night in 1973, I thought to myself, "Wouldn’t it be great to be able to pick up Twins games on the radio." I had been twirling the station tuner knob that night pickng up any games I could. Seemingly miraculously, within 10-15 minutes I heard a new voice and paused to see what team(s) I had come across. Imagine my astonishment when I learned that it was the Twins broadcast from WHO in Des Moines, Iowa.
I first heard the voice of Herb Carneal that night and stayed up late listening to Twins baseball as my recollection is that it was a doubleheader, possibly from the west coast. Herb became my constant companion for many years and my love for the Twins grew exponentially. 
I remember annually thnking the the Twins were going to win the AL West this season and the next and the next but it never happened. Why? I couldn’t figure it out as they had such fine hitters as Jim Holt, Steve Braun, Rod Carew,  Bobby Darwin, Mike Cubbage, then Glenn Adams, Lyman Bostock and Larry Hisle. 
The 1977 team brought things into clear focus. The offense, while maybe not as deep as 2019, was at the upper echelon - arguably the greatest offense in Twins history. On June 26, 1977 I listened to and scored from my basement in Ohio, a 19-12 Twins win over the White Sox, listening to Harey Carey from 670 WMAQ in Chicago.
Alas, the Twins had a mediocre to poor pitching staff in 1977. That to go along with possibly the best hitting team in Twins history and, in my opinion, the greatest manager in Twins history - the brilliant tactician and innovator, Gene Mauch. Suffice to say, from 1977 on, I realized that only a team with very strong pitching could hope to be in the playoffs (back them it was only AL East vs. West, then the World Series) or win the World Series.
Let’s take a look at the 1977 Twins. (courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
Pos Name Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ C Butch Wynegar# 21 144 617 532 76 139 22 3 10 79 2 3 68 61 .261 .344 .370 .715 96 1B Rod Carew* 31 155 694 616 128 239 38 16 14 100 23 13 69 55 .388 .449 .570 1.019 178 2B Bob Randall 29 103 342 306 36 73 13 2 0 22 1 4 15 25 .239 .289 .294 .583 61 SS Roy Smalley# 24 150 680 584 93 135 21 5 6 56 5 5 74 89 .231 .316 .315 .631 74 3B Mike Cubbage* 26 129 464 417 60 110 16 5 9 55 1 4 37 49 .264 .321 .391 .712 94 LF Larry Hisle 30 141 620 546 95 165 36 3 28 119 21 10 56 106 .302 .369 .533 .902 144 CF Lyman Bostock* 26 153 660 593 104 199 36 12 14 90 16 7 51 59 .336 .389 .508 .897 144 RF Dan Ford 25 144 510 453 66 121 25 7 11 60 6 4 41 79 .267 .338 .426 .764 108 DH Craig Kusick 28 115 325 268 34 68 12 0 12 45 3 1 49 60 .254 .370 .433 .803 120 Pos Name Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ DH Rich Chiles* 27 108 295 261 31 69 16 1 3 36 0 1 23 17 .264 .323 .368 .691 89 DH Glenn Adams* 29 95 290 269 32 91 17 0 6 49 0 2 18 30 .338 .376 .468 .844 130 3B Jerry Terrell 30 93 235 214 32 48 6 0 1 20 10 4 11 21 .224 .263 .266 .530 46 2B Rob Wilfong* 23 73 193 171 22 42 1 1 1 13 10 4 17 26 .246 .321 .281 .602 67 LF Bob Gorinski 25 54 126 118 14 23 4 1 3 22 1 0 5 29 .195 .226 .322 .548 48 CF Willie Norwood 26 39 91 83 15 19 3 0 3 9 6 1 6 17 .229 .281 .373 .654 78 IF Luis Gomez 25 32 74 65 6 16 4 2 0 11 0 2 4 9 .246 .290 .369 .659 80 C Glenn Borgmann 27 17 54 43 12 11 1 0 2 7 0 0 11 9 .256 .407 .419 .826 128 C Bud Bulling 24 15 39 32 2 5 1 0 0 5 0 0 5 5 .156 .270 .188 .458 29 3B Larry Wolfe 24 8 27 25 3 6 1 0 0 6 0 0 1 0 .240 .269 .280 .549 51 2B Sam Perlozzo 26 10 27 24 6 7 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 .292 .346 .458 .804 119 DH Randy Bass* 23 9 19 19 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 .105 .105 .105 .211 -42 Next the pitching staff that held the team to an 84-77 record.
Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Team Totals 27.1 84 77 4.36 161 161 126 35 4 25 1442.0 1546 776 698 151 507 737 91 4.21 1.424   Rank in 14 AL teams   7 8 12       11 9 10 8  12 12 12 10 7 12       Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP SP Dave Goltz 28 20 11 3.36 39 39 0 19 2 0 303.0 284 129 113 23 91 186 119 3.42 1.238 SP Paul Thormodsgard 23 11 15 4.62 37 37 0 8 1 0 218.0 236 122 112 25 65 94 86 4.30 1.381 SP Geoff Zahn* 31 12 14 4.68 34 32 0 7 1 0 198.0 234 116 103 20 66 88 85 4.24 1.515 SP Pete Redfern 22 6 9 5.18 30 28 2 1 0 0 137.1 164 89 79 13 66 73 77 4.44 1.675 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP CL Tom Johnson 26 16 7 3.13 71 0 54 0 0 15 146.2 152 57 51 11 47 87 128 3.59 1.357 RP Ron Schueler 29 8 7 4.41 52 7 21 0 0 3 134.2 131 74 66 16 61 77 91 4.63 1.426 RP Tom Burgmeier* 33 6 4 5.09 61 0 20 0 0 7 97.1 113 56 55 15 33 35 79 5.10 1.500 RP Dave Johnson 28 2 5 4.58 30 6 16 0 0 0 72.2 86 42 37 7 23 33 88 4.24 1.500 RP Jeff Holly* 24 2 3 6.89 18 5 6 0 0 0 48.1 57 37 37 8 12 32 58 4.37 1.428 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Gary Serum 20 0 0 4.37 8 0 2 0 0 0 22.2 22 11 11 4 10 14 93 5.39 1.412   Bill Butler* 30 0 1 6.86 6 4 0 0 0 0 21.0 19 17 16 5 15 5 59 7.64 1.619   Mike Pazik* 27 1 0 2.50 3 3 0 0 0 0 18.0 18 5 5 1 6 6 163 3.79 1.333   Don Carrithers 27 0 1 6.91 7 0 3 0 0 0 14.1 16 13 11 2 6 3 59 5.60 1.535   Jim Shellenback* 33 0 0 7.94 5 0 0 0 0 0 5.2 10 7 5 1 5 3 54 6.62 2.647   Jim Hughes 25 0 0 2.08 2 0 2 0 0 0 4.1 4 1 1 0 1 1 209 2.97 1.154 Notice that the starting rotation was basically one pitcher deep, their ace, Dave Goltz, he of the knuckle-curve. The staff ERA was 4.36, which is not so much a reflection of the quality of the starting staff but of the superior work of two relievers who ate up 281.1 innings. Tom Johnson was the one most responsible for holding down the team ERA with his 3.13 ERA, 16-7 record and 146.2 innings as the closer! Amazingly, after the Twins had lost Bill Campbell and his 17-5 record in relief in 1976 to free-agency, they were able to plug in Johnson.
It’s pretty plain to see that the top 9 pitchers listed, excepting Goltz and Johnson, are what held back this team with a juggernaut offense from a possible division championship or even World Series victory. Just one quality starter.
Two other major factors influenced my thinking on the value of deep, quality pitching.
The first was the astonishing success of the 1972-1974 Oakland A’s, who may have won 5-7 World Series in a row except for the advent of free-agency. Charley Finley waved the white flag of surrender just as much as Calvin Griffith did and the Oakland dynasty was destroyed. Take a look at the pitching staff of a World Champion three years running. The names changed slightly but the prioritization on pitching is the teachable lesson! (courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Team Totals 26.7 94 68 3.29 162 162 116 46 12 41 1457.1 1311 532 143 494 797 109 3.83 1.239   Rank in 12 AL teams   2 11 2       9 2 2 3  2 3 9 4 8       Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP SP Ken Holtzman* 27 21 13 2.97 40 40 0 16 4 0 297.1 275 98 22 66 157 120 3.18 1.147 SP Vida Blue* 23 20 9 3.28 37 37 0 13 4 0 263.2 214 96 26 105 158 109 3.89 1.210 SP Catfish Hunter 27 21 5 3.34 36 36 0 11 3 0 256.1 222 95 39 69 124 107 4.40 1.135 SP Blue Moon Odom 28 5 12 4.49 30 24 4 3 0 0 150.1 153 75 14 67 83 79 4.05 1.463 SP Dave Hamilton* 25 6 4 4.39 16 11 1 1 0 0 69.2 74 34 8 24 34 81 4.16 1.407 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP CL Rollie Fingers 26 7 8 1.92 62 2 49 0 0 22 126.2 107 27 5 39 110 186 2.36 1.153 RP Darold Knowles* 31 6 8 3.09 52 5 26 1 1 9 99.0 87 34 7 49 46 116 4.13 1.374 RP Horacio Pina 28 6 3 2.76 47 0 24 0 0 8 88.0 58 27 8 34 41 129 4.25 1.045 RP Paul Lindblad* 31 1 5 3.69 36 3 11 0 0 2 78.0 89 32 8 28 33 97 4.25 1.500 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Glenn Abbott 22 1 0 3.86 5 3 1 1 0 0 18.2 16 8 3 7 6 94 5.14 1.232   Rob Gardner* 28 0 0 4.91 3 0 0 0 0 0 7.1 10 4 2 4 2 77 7.20 1.909   Chuck Dobson 29 0 1 7.71 1 1 0 0 0 0 2.1 6 2 1 2 3 55 8.14 3.429 Second was playing table top baseball with a good friend who was an avid Orioles fan. We played my Twins team against his Orioles for many games, who while not having the offense of the Twins, kept running out a relentless rotation of Palmer, Flanagan, Dennis Martinez, Scott McGregor. I was defeated more often than not by this pitching staff and got used to being dominated. I was forever changed! This is the kind of staff I’d like to see the Twins aspire to! (courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Team Totals 26.8 90 71 3.56 161 161 96 65 14 33 1429.0 1340 566 107 509 754 99 3.60 1.294   Rank in 14 AL teams   5 10 5       1 2 2 11  2 4 4 7 5       Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP SP Jim Palmer 32 21 12 2.46 38 38 0 19 6 0 296.0 246 81 19 97 138 143 3.48 1.159 SP Mike Flanagan* 26 19 15 4.03 40 40 0 17 2 0 281.1 271 126 22 87 167 87 3.37 1.273 SP Dennis Martinez 24 16 11 3.52 40 38 0 15 2 0 276.1 257 108 20 93 142 100 3.54 1.267 SP Scott McGregor* 24 15 13 3.32 35 32 2 13 4 1 233.0 217 86 19 47 94 106 3.46 1.133 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP CL Don Stanhouse 27 6 9 2.89 56 0 47 0 0 24 74.2 60 24 0 52 42 122 3.55 1.500 RP Joe Kerrigan 24 3 1 4.77 26 2 16 0 0 3 71.2 75 38 10 36 41 74 4.85 1.549 RP Tippy Martinez* 28 3 3 4.83 42 0 16 0 0 5 69.0 77 37 4 40 57 73 3.47 1.696 RP Nelson Briles 34 4 4 4.64 16 8 4 1 0 0 54.1 58 28 6 21 30 76 4.19 1.454 RP John Flinn 23 1 1 8.04 13 0 5 0 0 0 15.2 24 14 3 13 8 45 6.54 2.362 Pos Name Age W L ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Tim Stoddard 25 0 1 6.00 8 0 3 0 0 0 18.0 22 12 3 8 14 60 4.86 1.667   Dave Ford 21 1 0 0.00 2 1 1 0 0 0 15.0 10 0 0 2 5   2.32 0.800   Sammy Stewart 23 1 1 3.18 2 2 0 0 0 0 11.1 10 4 0 3 11 115 1.44 1.147   Earl Stephenson* 30 0 0 2.79 2 0 2 0 0 0 9.2 10 3 0 5 4 131 3.31 1.552   Elrod Hendricks 37 0 0 0.00 1 0 0 0 0 0 2.1 1 0 0 1 0   3.87 0.857   Larry Harlow* 26 0 0 67.50 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 2 5 1 4 1 9 37.09 9.000 Now, let’s compare this year’s Twins staff to, first the 1977 Twins, and then secondly to the 1973 A’s and the 1978 Orioles. (courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
Pos Name Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Team Totals 30.4 29 41 .414 4.94 70 70 70 0 0 17 610.1 619 335 104 209 574 84 4.67 1.357   Rank in 15 AL teams   12 4   14       8 9 8 11  13 13 14 5 13       Pos Name Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP SP Jose Berrios 27 7 2 .778 3.56 14 14 0 0 0 0 83.1 70 33 10 21 87 115 3.58 1.092 SP J.A. Happ* 38 3 3 .500 6.12 12 12 0 0 0 0 60.1 69 41 11 18 44 67 5.13 1.442 SP Michael Pineda (10-day IL) 32 3 4 .429 3.70 11 11 0 0 0 0 56.0 49 23 10 15 51 111 4.48 1.143 SP Matt Shoemaker 34 2 8 .200 7.57 13 11 2 0 0 0 54.2 66 46 12 23 37 54 6.04 1.628 SP Kenta Maeda 33 2 2 .500 5.01 10 10 0 0 0 0 46.2 55 26 9 14 46 82 4.80 1.479 Pos Name Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP CL Taylor Rogers* 30 2 3 .400 2.73 28 0 11 0 0 7 29.2 26 9 3 5 41 152 2.23 1.045 RP Hansel Robles 30 3 3 .500 2.84 32 0 9 0 0 5 31.2 21 10 2 19 33 145 3.80 1.263 RP Jorge Alcala 25 1 1 .500 3.49 29 0 11 0 0 0 28.1 16 11 7 7 24 118 5.54 0.812 RP Tyler Duffey 30 0 2 .000 4.15 28 0 2 0 0 2 26.0 23 12 2 13 24 100 3.94 1.385 RP Alex Colome 32 2 4 .333 5.40 27 0 10 0 0 2 25.0 28 15 5 12 26 77 5.49 1.600 Pos Name Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP   Randy Dobnak 26 1 6 .143 7.83 13 5 3 0 0 1 43.2 60 38 11 12 25 53 6.19 1.649   Caleb Thielbar* 34 2 0 1.000 4.13 22 0 4 0 0 0 24.0 26 11 3 7 36 101 2.80 1.375   Bailey Ober 25 0 0   3.71 4 4 0 0 0 0 17.0 18 7 3 2 21 113 3.52 1.176   Cody Stashak (10-day IL) 27 0 0   6.89 15 0 1 0 0 0 15.2 16 12 2 10 26 61 3.62 1.660   Lewis Thorpe* (7-day IL) 25 0 2 .000 3.86 4 3 1 0 0 0 14.0 13 6 1 4 5 109 4.24 1.214   Luke Farrell 30 1 0 1.000 2.08 11 0 3 0 0 0 13.0 11 3 1 5 14 202 3.17 1.231   Shaun Anderson 26 0 0   9.35 4 0 0 0 0 0 8.2 13 9 1 5 8 46 4.90 2.077   Griffin Jax (40-man) 26 0 0   8.64 3 0 2 0 0 0 8.1 11 8 4 3 9 49 8.33 1.680   Derek Law 30 0 0   8.53 5 0 3 0 0 0 6.1 11 6 2 6 9 51 7.28 2.684   Juan Minaya 30 0 0   4.26 4 0 2 0 0 0 6.1 5 3 2 3 4 102 7.91 1.263   Devin Smeltzer* (10-day IL) 25 0 0   0.00 1 0 1 0 0 0 4.2 1 0 0 1 3   3.81 0.429   Brandon Waddell* 27 0 1 .000 11.25 4 0 2 0 0 0 4.0 10 5 2 3 1 40 11.42 3.250   Willians Astudillo (40-man) 29 0 0   3.00 3 0 3 0 0 0 3.0 1 1 1 1 0 153 8.51 0.667 Statistically, this is the worst pitching staff we’ve looked at. This rotation is basically a two man rotation out of 5 where the 1977 Twins were basically one. Staffs like the 1977 and 2021 Twins will never lead to a high quality team featuring one  and two viable starters type rotations. Obvious, right?
My argument would be that Falvey and Levine should be trying to get that to 4 or 5 quality starters and not put resources to players like J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Alex Colome or even Josh Donaldson. Donaldson has good qualities but one thing he isn’t is a quality pitcher.
What’s the way forward? I think, based on his 3.70 ERA so far and the virtual impossibility of signing 3 FA quality starters, that they need to re-sign Michael Pineda. They also need to re-sign Jose Berrios. That’s only 2 of 5 quality starters. We have to hope that Maeda rounds back into form. Further the FO is going to have to sign a quality free agent pitcher. Then we have to hope that Bailey Ober builds on what he as started so far. And hope that Barnes, Duran or Balazovic make a breakthrough. There are other good arms.
I’ve pictured below the kinds of pitchers we need in at least 3 or 4 spots. It would be nice to have Christy Mathewson as a Twin but, alas, that’s not possible. He’s my favorite pitcher of all time.
Let me know what you think. My motto is pitching, pitching and more pitching!!!
 

The Minnesota Twins find themselves doubled up in the loss column at the time of this post, at 13-26, and the biggest controversy is whether Yermin Mercedes should be able to swing 3-0 against Willians Astudillo. If that doesn't tell you how this season has gone, I'm not sure what will. I've already wrote about players that we could see traded, as well as ranked all the Twins MLB roster by trade value. I expect many of those moves to be made in July, although some could roll in earlier, especially with all of the injuries around Major League Baseball. When all of these expected moves come around, the Twins are going to have to fill these holes with players from the minor leagues, or possibly by players coming in from the trades. This series will take a look at the players the Twins front office will want to take a longer look at come late July, August, and September in order to put themselves in a position to succeed in 2022.
 
RHP Randy Dobnak
 

Dobnak came into the Twins organization as a feel good story, and even started a playoff game for the Twins. He also signed a 5 year extension this past offseason, which locked in financial security for the former Uber driver, and gave the Twins a cheap depth option for the foreseeable future. However, there is questions around Twins territory on whether Dobnak is an MLB starter, or more of a long man. With expected trades of JA Happ and Michael Pineda, and the likely DFA or move to the bullpen for Matt Shoemaker, the Twins will have plenty of chances to evaluate some of the AAA starters. Dobnak should, and likely will be, the first option to fill the hole. Dobnak relies on pinpoint control over his sinker, and a very good slider to pair with the sinker. In order to be an effective MLB starter, Dobnak will have to develop a reliable third pitch, with the changeup being the most likely. Even if Dobnak isn't a long term starter, he will be on the opening day roster in 2022.
 
LHP Lewis Thorpe
Lewis Thorpe is a former top prospect out of Australia, but certainly hasn't met those expectations thus far. The key to Thorpe being a useful arm in the major leagues all rely on his fastball velocity. Last season we saw Thorpe's velocity fall below 90, which was not the norm for him, and unsurprisingly, he got shelled. However, there were signs of hope for the southpaw during spring training, where he said he "refocused mentally and physically" and the results backed it up. Thorpe was sitting in the low 90's during spring training, but that has suddenly disappeared. During Thorpe's two spot starts thus far, he's once again sitting 89.7 MPH on the fastball, and shared that he's going through a dead arm phase. If Thorpe snaps out of his dead arm, and regains his velo, he has a chance at a starter to pair with his very good slider. However, if the fastball velo is only sustainable in short stints, a move to the pen seems inevitable. We'll get an answer on this question during the dog days of the 2021 summer. 
 
RHP Bailey Ober
As I'm writing this article, Bailey Ober is pitching the first inning of his MLB debut. Ober is a big, right handed arm who stands at 6 feet 9 inches, but doesn't have the velo that matches the body. The Twins drafted Ober in the 12th round in 2017, which is the same draft where Royce Lewis was the #1 pick. The fact that Ober has already made his MLB debut, despite being a 12th round pick, means he's outperformed expectations. Bailey was added to the 40 man roster this past offseason, despite not throwing in a live game since 2019. Ober has four quality pitches, with the fastball sitting in the upper 80's, and the lower 90's on occasion. His best putaway pitch is a changeup, which moves with a lot of armside run. He also features a slider and curveball, but neither project as anything more than an average pitch. Despite the fastball not cracking 90, it has a lot of carry on it which allows him to successfully pitch in the upper part of the zone. With the next wave of top arms coming to Target Field soon in Johan Duran and Jordan Balazovic, Ober will have to perform well to stay apart of Minnesota's long term plans, as he is a starter or bust.  

Next offseason we have 6 free agents (Cruz DH 13 million, Pineda SP 10 million, Happ SP 8 million, Simmons SS 10,500,000, Robles RP 2 million, and Shoemaker SP 2 million) and a team option on Colome RP 5 million. Or 3 Starting Pitchers, 2 Relievers, DH and SS for a total 2021 salary of 45.5 million coming off the books next offseason.
 
For our rotation we already have Berrios, Maeda, Dobnak as established starters. We only need to fill two spots. Dobnak’s 800,000 salary will likely be replacing a 10 million salary pitcher freeing up money to be spent elsewhere. Luckily Balazovich, Thorpe, Duran and others should be close enough to be ready for an opportunity. We may only need to sign 1 starting pitcher to keep our rotation deep as it is now.
 
Our pen is likely to lose a few members, but relievers can be found cheaply in free agency so the cost to swap out relievers is going to be low or at the worst not a big increase in costs.
 
Cruz will be a free agent next offseason too and it will be interesting to see what happens with him. Will we resign him for one more go around or is this his last season here? I doubt he would cost more than the 13 million we are paying him and more likely less with incentives. Even with the National League adding the DH next year. Regardless we have lots of options to replace him too (Larnarch, Rooker, and others).
 
We were even set up at SS for next season too with Royce Lewis coming up but now we may have to find another SS on a short-term deal so Lewis can come up when he is ready more likely now the following season. However, we are still likely to come in under this year’s budget next season.
 
On Arbitration only Berrios, Buxton, possibly Garver and Duffey and Rogers are in line for decent size raises. As a group I am only guessing they raise their salaries by approximately 18-24 million. If we don’t have to sign an expensive SS or have any unforeseen issues pre-emptively come up by next offseason, we are set up to pay big for an ace starting pitcher next offseason. Do we know which starting pitchers will be free agents next year? And do any of you believe we will compete and sign one?
 
(Note: I got the salary info on this site)

Today marked the unveiling of PECOTA’s standings projection from Baseball Prospectus. For the Minnesota Twins, things are looking great as the system sees 91 wins and a third straight AL Central division title. There are definitely some noteworthy revelations, however.
 
Of course, as Twins fans, the hometown club appearing atop the division once again is the most exciting development. 91 wins seems conservative in a division that should really be a two-team race, but PECOTA doesn’t see the breakdown working quite like that. Despite all of the fanfare, the projection system has the Chicago White Sox finishing third in the division and winning just 83 games.
 
From my vantage point, the White Sox coming in anywhere lower than second seems like quite the shock. Cleveland dealt away Francisco Lindor, should do the same with Jose Ramirez, and despite a stellar pitching staff, have little else to hang their hats on. The White Sox certainly could be primed for some regression though. They burst onto the scene a year ago, but the season was just a 60-game sample size. Looking back to the 2017 Twins, there was a Postseason appearance prior to a backwards slide that then set them up for the current run.
 
Trying to make some sense of what PECOTA may be seeing, I looked at the added WAR for Minnesota and Chicago through the lens of ZiPS from Fangraphs. Chicago has added just 6.5 fWAR while the Twins tacked on a tally of 7.2 fWAR. That’s largely a reflection of where both clubs added. The White Sox needed help in the outfield but responded with just Adam Eaton and Adam Engel. Lance Lynn is a solid addition if he keeps down the path of recent success, but even as good as Liam Hendriks is, Alex Colome was already stellar a year ago and a single reliever has just minimal impact. Both Nelson Cruz and Andrelton Simmons are seen as substantial additions for Minnesota, while J.A. Happ should be considered a steadying presence.
 
Even without the distaste for Chicago clouding my view, I still find it hard to believe that club will finish below Cleveland. I’ve written in this space that I’d hardly be shocked if the Royals end up third in the division, and for now I’m going to stick to that. Projection systems or otherwise, you can bet the South Side fanbase won’t take kindly to what will be viewed as disrespect.
 
One other area of note within PECOTA is the projection for the NL Central. That division is expected to be a dumpster fire, and the Milwaukee Brewers are slated to win it with just 88 wins. It’s worth making a note of considering the Central will serve as the interleague foe for Minnesota in 2021. Despite the regionalized schedule a year ago, the Twins face the same grouping of opponents in the National League. Being able to face off against a division that’s largely not trying should only provide additional opportunity to add tallies in the win column.
 
We’ll have to take a look back on these standings come October when the dust settles. Right now, though, another Twins division title and some shade towards the South Side is more than good with me.
 
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Recently the Minnesota Twins signed veteran starting pitcher J.A. Happ to bolster their rotation. He’d slot in as the 4th starter with where things stand currently, and Randy Dobnak would be the clubhouse favorite to round out the group. It remains to be seen whether or not another move is coming, but there’s a dark horse to eat someone’s lunch.
 
At the risk of sounding too punny, maybe he’s a dark kangaroo. Lewis Thorpe recently turned 25-years-old and is a former top-100 prospect. He couldn’t be further from that stature right now, but talent shouldn’t be the question. After battling back from Tommy John surgery, and then an extended bout of pneumonia, he put together impressive seasons on the farm. The past two years have been anything but, however he’s worth believing in under one key condition.
 
I liked Thorpe as a potential contributor to the big-league club when 2020 Spring Training kicked off. He was coming off a 4.76 ERA in just shy of 100 Triple-A innings, but it was largely reflective of the home run ball and his 11.1 K/9 paired with a 2.3 BB/9 was still plenty enticing. Then Florida happened.
 
No, for Thorpe, it wasn’t the Covid-19 related shutdown. Without divulging too many specifics or risking secondary information, what is publicly known is that he took an extended leave of absence from the team. His parents flew in from Australia and he needed to undergo a mental reset. Ultimately, he didn’t appear in a Major League game until July 26 and contributed just 16.1 innings for the Twins. His 6.06 ERA was ugly and giving up a homer in roughly 25-percent of his innings pitched was not going to play. Again though, the stuff has always been there.
 
Observing the offseason without having directly communicated with Thorpe, things appear to be trending in a different direction. The Twitter account has been dormant since his birthday in 2020, and his workouts have been shared on different forms of social media. What was at least an erratic presence a year ago has once again subdued as was the case previously.
 
Whether by his own doing, or a helping hand from the organization, if Thorpe has recalibrated himself, he can certainly be a difference maker on the bump. I was uncertain as to his place within the organization during periods of roster trimming, and there were times that his inclusion in a trade may have even made sense. The pitcher that forced his way into the big leagues in 2019 is a force to be reckoned with however, and Rocco Baldelli can make use of that.
 
Physically we saw Thorpe’s velocity diminish in 2020. He posted just an average of 90 mph on his fastball. It’s never that he’s been a hard thrower but losing nearly 2 mph at such a young age wasn’t a great development. It was clear that the lack of carry made a difference last season, and Wes Johnson unlocking the tank would be a great step forward for the Southpaw. The Twins ratcheted up his slider usage last season, and that trend could continue for 2021. Looking to regain the whiff and chase rates from 2019 form, tinkering will certainly be valuable as more data is collected.
 
There’s not reason to believe an ace is in the making here, but right now it’s not Dobnak or bust when it comes to the back end of the Twins rotation. Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic may force themselves in eventually, but don’t count out the best version of Thorpe to make noise before the dust settles.
 
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Think back to October 2019 – the Twins had just gotten pantsed in the playoffs. Again. A really fun season had ended in disappointment. Again. But there was still ample reason for hope. One such reason for optimism was the emergence of Luis Arraez, a rookie contact-hitting savant. Now, one (odd) season later, and we’re in about the same place. The Twins are fresh off another fun season that ended in postseason embarrassment, but this year, we’re much less excited about the 23-year-old second baseman. And for what? All Arraez did in 2020 was fight through injury to hit for a .321 batting average (best on the team) and a .364 on-base percentage (second best) while playing a decent second base. So why are some Twins fans throwing his name into every possible trade deal or into a platoon with whoever ends up as Minnesota’s utility man? Hasn’t Arraez earned himself a spot in the Twins future?
 
2020 Season
Okay, obviously saying that Arraez “fought through injury” to bat .321 is a fairly rose-tinted way of looking at what Luis brought to the Twins last year. To put it a different way, “Arraez was an injury liability and, when he was in the lineup, he regressed in all major stat categories and offered very little in the way of power.” The truth about Arraez is somewhere in between these two takes, but I’ve heard a lot more extreme pessimism than optimism. Yes, he regressed last year and no, he doesn’t help the team when he’s injured, but we’ve found ways to excuse nearly every other Twin for those same exact problems without casting them off as trade bait (I’m looking at you, Garver and Buxton). Also, Arraez’s “regression” brought him down to a .321 average that would’ve been good for third-best in the American League if he had enough at-bats to qualify. As far as I’m concerned, that’s still a pretty good season.
 


Arraez's 2020 campaign was disappointing, but there's reason for hope going forward 
Advanced Stats
I understand that, nowadays, you often have to do more than just hit at a high average to be a solid MLB player, but worry not, because Arraez actually improved slightly in a number of more telling advanced statistics last season. His 2020 campaign saw him improve in average exit velocity, sweet spot percentage and hard hit percentage, per Baseball Savant. None of these improvements was particularly significant and he’s by no means excelling in any of these categories, but it’s clear by looking at the advanced metrics that Arraez is not getting worse at the plate. In fact, it seems that his 2020 season should have been even better than his breakout rookie year.
 
So why did it feel disappointing? Because we were hoping for that second-year leap and we got a regression to the mean instead. Arraez’s improvement in advanced hitting metrics and regression in average and OBP show us that his rookie year was a statistical outlier more than it was a stepping stone to even greater success in the future. Still, if .321 is the mean he regressed towards, Twins fans ought to be excited, especially considering that he was injured and is still only 23. We’ve written off much worse pandemic performances from healthier and more experienced guys, so let’s afford Arraez some of that forgiveness.
 
2021 Projections
Unfortunately, ZiPS (and every other projection service) doesn’t seem to be helping me make my case. They predict a slash line of .313/.371/.406 for his third year in the bigs. On the surface, this looks worse than it is because Arraez’s average is projected to take another hit, but ZiPS actually projects that .313 mark to lead the majors. They have his on-base and slugging numbers improving, too, so, really, they’re not down on Arraez at all. Even if Arraez does level out as a .313 hitter – and I think he’ll be better than that long-term – adding some power and taking more walks would be a massive improvement for his career and for the Twins lineup. And I believe he can make those improvements because, again, he’s only 23.
 


ZiPS projects a .313/.371/.406 slash line for Arraez in 2021 
So, where does that leave us? I saw the regression from his rookie year (we all did) and no, his 2020 year wasn’t what we hoped for, but Arraez is still a great asset for the Twins moving forward. I believe in his contact hitting that has been the best on the team and I believe in the advanced metrics that show his improvements in other areas. Most of all, though, I believe in the player. Arraez has hit .300 at every level of professional baseball, and is the same age or younger than some of the Twins’ top minor-league prospects. He’s already a great hitter and he has a lot of opportunity for growth ahead of him. Luis Arraez may very well win a batting title soon, and the Twins better make sure he does it in a Minnesota jersey.

The Twins have Jorge Polanco at SS. In 2019 he was an all star. Now all of Twins fandom wants him at utility and hope for the team to sign another SS. I am not sure why. Our number one prospect remains Royce Lewis who is still listed as a SS who should be ready by the end of the year at least. So why do we want to demote Polanco and block Lewis? This is reasoning that does not work for me.
 
Then we have Wander Javier who came to us in the same international draft that produced Vladimir Guerrero, jr. and Yordan Alvarez. To say that he is behind them on the development level is an understatement. I am still not sure why he is rated so high as a prospect. He has had a hamstring injury during his 2016 debut, a torn labrum costing him all of 2018 and a strained quad keeping him from making his full-season debut in 2019. Then he came in and looked lost for 300 at bats. And MLB.com still has him listed at number nine.
 
Above him on the mlb.com site is Keoni Cavaco who is given great grades for athleticism, which is fine in the Olympics, but batting and fielding count in baseball. I am not sold on him. He was a fast riser in HS according to his notes. Another prospect who does not make my list.
 
At 17 is Nick Gordon. He seems to be on a slippery slope to a forgotten prospect, but I hope he will find a way to get to the majors someday. He just isn’t going to make the team as a starter.
 
Will Holland is next on the prospect list at 19. Notes about him say that he was doing great at Auburn until his Junior year where he bombed and slipped to fifth round. Then he came to rookie ball and still bombed. Not looking good.
 
Today the Twins made an big international signing – Danny De Andrade who is 16. He could be projected to arrive when Lewis runs out of arbitration and signs elsewhere. He is big, potential middle of the order project (typically that means not staying at SS). At 16 he is a project. I know what my grandsons are like at that age – I would not sign them for $2.2 million and I love them. If he makes it he will probably replace Donaldson and not Lewis.
 
Finally the second signing is Fredy LaFlor who is already projected in the mlb.com writeup to shift to second or CF. He said to be a high energy top of the lineup prospect.
 
So there is the Twins SS list. I would like to see us develop one of them into the next great SS rather than sign one who is already down the road of his career and will be overpaid. How do you see these names playing out?
 
The Athletic summary of international signings did not include the Twins - disappointing. https://theathletic.com/2326602/2021/01/16/mlb-international-signing-period-day-1/?source=weeklyemail For those of us who do not know who they are it is important to have outside opinions.

Seventy five for a seventy five year old
Okay, it is my birthday and I love life and all my ex-students, friends, participants in the guided tours, neighbors and family. So I am reflective and that means I have to think of 75 memories – there are many more. But here are 75 Twin memories.
1. Ushering during season one
2. Mudcat Grant – you want colorful – this is it.
3. Vic Power taking over first base in a way I have never seen anywhere else.
4. Jim Kaat just delivering and delivering and delivering.
5. Harmon Killebrew with a swing that seemed to cut the night air into pieces.
6. Rod Carew just toying with the fielders.
7. Sandy Koufax showing us what HOF means – despite out loss it was great.
8. Tony Oliva doing everything and then those knees just radiated pain.
9. Joe Mauer being so Minnesota that everyone in MN complained he was too plain.
10. Tovar playing everywhere and playing so good.
11. Everyday Eddie coming in day after day and giving us ulcers everytime.
12. Calvin Griffith reminding us that owning a team did not make a man into a good man.
13. Sid Hartman telling us everything MN was great even when it wasn’t.
14. Metropolitan Stadium, a dream for all of us with erector sets.
15. The dome collapsing like a big pimple.
16. 1987 Twins being champions when they looked like a below average team
17. 1965 Twins being the best team in our history, but losing to a historic event
18. Hrbek doing his wrestling move on first base – I am still laughing
19. Sitting in the upper upper deck of the metrodome at game 7 1991
20. Jack Morris refusing to quit – HOF for no other reason
21. Kirby Puckett showing that determination can change an outcome
22. Dan Gladden a non-star who gave us grit
23. Herb Carneal giving us a transistor seat at all the games
24. Halsey Hall so outrageous that we loved him even if we did not know what he was talking about
25. Cool nights with a breeze from right field in the sixties
26. Lousy hot dogs that still were satisfying in the early decades
27. Bob Allison looking so fit and intimidating
28. Nelson Cruz reminding us old guys that old does not mean feeble
29. Kirby Puckett taking over game six
30. Hrbek’s WS grand slam
31. Knoblauch at second base
32. Knoblauch returning to a shower of boos and hotdogs
33. Jim Perry 1970 Cy Young
34. Tom Kelly blowing it with Ortiz
35. Zoilo Versalles 1965 MVP
36. Byron Buxton in Centerfield
37. Torii Hunter robs Barry Bonds in All Star game
38. Frank Viola Cy Young 1988
39. Harmon Killebrew MVP 1969
40. Billy Martin and the marshmallow salesman
41. Johann Santana Cy Young award 2004
42. John Castino – rookie of the year 1979
43. Seeing Carew leave
44. Johann Santana Cy Young 2006
45. Paul Molitor at DH 1996
46. Dean Chance No-hitter
47. Joe Mauer 2009 – major league player of the year
48. Camilo Pascual’s curveball
49. The collapse of the Metrodome
50. Marty Cordova Rookie of the year 1995 (or last rookie of the year)
51. Justin Morneau MVP 2006
52. Mitch Garver in 2019
53. The Turtle running the bases
54. Bob Allison’s sliding catch
55. Randy Bush pinch hitter with 13 hits in one year
56. Gene Larkin’s walk off pinch hit
57. Puckett to the HOF
58. Harmon Killebrew’s 520-foot Home Run June 1967
59. The last playoff game won by the Twins 2004
60. 18 game post season losing streak 2020
61. 1984 Dave Kingman hits a 208 foot double – straight up and into the metrodome roof
62. Tony Oliva wins batting title in 1964 and 1965
63. 1971 Rod Carew Rookie of the Year
64. Lyman Bostock and Larry Hisle came together for one great year
65. 1977 Rod Carew batted 388
66. 1969 Harmon Killebrew hit 49 HRs
67. Billy Martin gets in fight with his own 20 game winner – Dave Boswell
68. 2016 Twins lose record 103 games
69. 1987 home team wins all the games in WS and we have four home games
70. Watching the famous Hrbek game in Sierra Vista AZ bar as the only Twins fan in the place
71. Killebrew in the HOF
72. Rod Carew in the HOF
73. 2002 Pohlads agree to contraction – we almost lost the team
74. 2006, the year of the Piranhas
75. Bert Blyleven in the HOF

I had an idea. What if someone got a hit, stole second - maybe third and someone else got a hit and they scored?
 
In new school does that not count?
 
What if someone got a hit, someone bunted and then a single brought them home? Does that not mean that the run scores?
 
Do I have to wait for a HR? Should I look for a K instead of a sacrifice?
 
Do I have to fire up the computer. What to do? No HR? We cannot score that way. We need HRs without runners on base because analytics say that is really the cool new way to do it.
Let's eliminate the sacrifice, the bunt, the stolen base - I know they worked for 150 years but they did not have computers.
 
Mookie Betts looks great, but what is he doing stealing two bases?
 
Why would we hit to the weakness of a shift when we can score a high exit velocity on the ball we hit for an out? Why go the other way when we can get a launch angle? Doesn't exit velocity score us more points? Doesn't launch angle get us an extra mention on Sports Center?
 
Don't we get more runs for a HR with more distance?
 
What is it with the old school. Get a hit. Advance a base. Score. So boring.
 
And then there are RBIs - who cares. No one is getting a hit other than a HR anyway so why worry about a batter who can actually bring that baserunner to home plate? Runs, RBIs, Batting average - so yesterday.
 
And then there is pitching. We should all throw 100 mph because the batters can never adjust to that! Have them hit into a DP - what are you talking about it will impact my K/BB rate. The ERA is so old school lets just worry about K/HR.
 
And starting pitchers who go into the later innings - why? So what if we need 43 RP to handle all the extra innings. We do not need Spahn, Marichal, Mathewson - they are old school. Lets just have 9 pitchers per game per team. Boy is that fun. No saves, no complete games, no dominating Sandy Koufax or Bob Gibson. Let's have a lot of Duffeys, Romos, Aaron Bummers - who? Yup. No more pitchers in the HOF. Who needs them?
 
And, by the way, no more fans in the stands. Not because there is Covid, but because the game is getting so damned boring.
 
As an addendum - game three of the WS - the Dodgers had long balls, but they also scored on singles, they had a bunt for a run, and they stole bases. When you blend old school with some new maybe the game can get fun again.
 
Game 4 - Tampa Bay ties the series. Yes they got HRs, but a single and an error won the game. By putting the ball in play so many things can happen. It went for a single, it was dropped by the centerfielder and then the catcher - errors seldom happen on a K.
 
Game 6 - Kevin Cash proved what I hate - Snell was upset and should be. He is an Ace and he was ready to be Jack Morris but the damn team policy removed the human element and the Rays deserved to lose.

Wow – the combined AL/NL Central division had 7 teams in the 16 team post season mix. That must be a great division so we can take great pride in all our wins, right? Maybe not. Let us look at the division record for the first round.
 
This is for those of you who have decided not to watch any more baseball until spring. The game does go on even if the Twins do not. And if you did see other series you would see something that we missed in the Twins series, besides relief pitching, batting, and fielding. We missed fire - the Kirby Puckett type of jump on my back fire or the Jack Morris I am not coming out of the game fire.
 
 
Central division seven teams:
 
Chicago Cubs 0 - 2
Chicago White Sox 1 - 2
Minnesota Twins 0 - 2 The bombas scored 2 runs in two games
Cincinnati Reds 0 – 2 - They did not score once in 22 innings and had 28 Ks
Cleveland Indians 0 – 2
St Louis 1 – 2
Milwaukee 0 – 2
 
Total 2 - 14
 
Derrick Falvey - “When you get to the playoffs, every inning matters in a different way. It’s so much more stressful in those moments, because you’re worried inning to inning about what’s going to happen next … You get a little more fixated on the detail of it.”
 
The Eastern Division has five teams
 
Tampa Bay 2 – 0
New York Yankees 2 – 0
Toronto Blue Jays 0 – 2 (and they played Tampa Bay in their own division)
Atlanta 2 – 0
Marlins 2 – 0 Yes that was Brandon Kintzler closing out for the Marlins
 
Total 8 - 2
 
"THEY’D LOST SEVEN STRAIGHT POTENTIAL CLINCHERS! The hardest part of going all those years without winning a series is that the Braves could have won so many of them. They played seven postseason games in that time that could have clinched five different series — and lost all seven. That’s the longest losing streak in potential clinchers by any NL team in history — and the second-longest in baseball history." Jason Stark.
 
Western Division has only 4 teams - must be the weak division (right?)
 
Oakland A’s 2 - 1 Liam Hendriks threw 49 pitches on Wednesday, then saved their clincher Thursday.https://www.mlb.com/video/liam-hendriks-k-s-mazara?t=clinches-and-celebrations
San Diego 2 – 1
Los Angeles 2 – 0 Brusdar Graterol gets Ben Gamel to fly out to secure the 3-0 victory https://www.mlb.com/video/brusdar-graterol-earns-the-save?t=clinches-and-celebrations
Houston 2 – 0
 
Total 8 - 2
 
The Central has had 4 two and out, the East has one (because that team had to play within its own division and the West has zero.
 
"As the sixth inning arrived Thursday in Petco Park, the Padres were four innings away from getting swept by the Cardinals in the wild-card series. Then those same Padres apparently decided that getting swept was not an option. Nope. Not happening. What happened instead was incredible:" Jason Stark. Reminds me of Puckett and Morris. Sometimes you just have to say no - we are not going to lose.
 
Of course Don Mattingly without knowing it said what Rocco needs to hear - our starters are better than anything we have in the pen. You got to trust them. https://www.mlb.com/video/don-mattingly-on-the-win?t=clinches-and-celebrations
 
"Meanwhile in Oakland … the A’s were in the midst of one of the most mind-boggling October funks of all time. Until they outlasted the White Sox on Thursday, they’d somehow lost nine winner-take-all postseason games in a row.
"They’d lost three of those games to the Yankees … and two to the Tigers … and one each to the Red Sox, Twins, Royals and Rays. It was the longest streak in baseball history." Jason Stark
 
And despite the fact that the Twins starters are limited to five innings, Clayton Kershaw proved that is not a new league rule - "The Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw. Eight dominant innings, giving up only three hits while recording 13 strikeouts, all on breaking pitches." ESPN
 
Wild Card Round
Central - zero
East - Four
West - Four