twinstalker

I sincerely, SINCERELY, hope the Twins were not counting on Daniel Duarte, as the article says. I already struggle with my feelings about Falvine. I am in the camp where I'd rather shut Zebby down soon than pitch him in meaningful MLB games this year. I think he needs to rest, regroup rather than be under intense pressure at the MLB-race level having thrown more innings than ever before. If your team isn't going to spend to bring in talent, you have to truly treat the up and coming talent with kid gloves. On that note, Dobnak doesn't look great, and the Twins might have to resort to bullpen games or plan for Varland bulk work. SWR losing it the last couple of games is a worry we'll learn more about. I don't think the Twins are in a great spot. Getting Flaherty would have been huge.

Thanks for the recap! (tl;dr prospect rant) I'm face-palming a little at the prospect rankings. Tell me why a 4th round pick who's done nothing really except be bad and be injured for four years is ranked #10. What is the fascination with Marco Raya? First, if he were anything, really, to speak of when drafted, he very likely would have gone much higher than late 4th rd. Then he's proceeded to show nothing except some good mound work once that got a Twins guy excited. Probably the same Twins guy that saw Aaron Sabato hit a homer once at UNC. Speaking of which, we don't seem to have any problem dropping Sabato off the list long ago, and he was picked three rounds ahead of Raya. It's perplexing what the thought process is. Another I don't understand is why Schobel is considered a top prospect. What's he done? Where's the hope in his swing? There's nothing there. Who's better now and for the future, Tanner Schobel or Payton Eeles? There's not a single person contributing to this ranking who thinks Schobel is better than Eeles, I'm willing to bet. So it doesn't make sense. There is a 1.5 year age difference, I'll give you that, but there's also a difference of being bad at AA vs succeeding at AAA. Oof. Forgive my rant as Kala'i Rosario continues his climb to being the next Yunior Severino. Also, why in the world do we want to rank recent high draftees so high on this list? Can K. Culpepper or K. DeBarge hit any top pitching? Word is they don't do well vs the better ones (worse than they should), and that's with non-wood bats. As a rule, no Twins prospect should initially be ranked higher than the pick used to draft their top pick, unless there's a weird situation like last year with Jenkins ( one of five #1s in the class, arguably). I would place K. Culpepper at 21 ahead of the other draftees and Winokur and Raya and Schobel and Rosario. There are a lot of Twins prospects, real prospects, who've shown something exciting at an appropriate level. Let the draftees rise as they show they are really good wrt age/level/K-rate. I'm happy to say we have the same guys in the top five, slightly different order (Zebby, EmRod switched). I think Festa is behind Morris and Lewis prospect-wise, but it's definitely arguable, and it wouldn't surprise me much if Festa were the best of these. Finally again, you completely left off four guys who have to be on there, one of which I believe is Eeles (he's Punto/Keaschall?). The other three are Danny De Andrade (my 7), Dameury Pena (my 12), and Spencer Bengard (my 13). DDA has been hurt after a good start, Pena had a great first half but has faded, Bengard is next in the Ober, Festa, Zebby, Morris, Lewis, CJ Culpepper line. That's all. Thanks for humoring me!

This game proved that, yes, it is much worse to have loved and lost than to have never loved at all. I like this line in this context, thank you. The Dobber didn't look good today. I'm not loving the season Jenkins is having and really hope next year shows a ton of growth. Unless they refuse to throw him any strikes in an AB, and I don't believe that's the case, he needs to figure out how to punish pitchers. He's 19 at A+, so I understand it's really hard, but a future superstar would be crushing, a future star would be punishing, and a future good player would be having the season he's having. I hoping for the first, willing to settle for the second, and am already expecting "good player" as a baseline. C'mon, WJ! (actually, "future superstar" looks out of the question, given the standard set by those who are) Oh, and for context, I believed Brooks Lee in the minors was showing future mediocre starter to average starter in the bigs, at least hitting-wise.

A few names to keep an eye on, but you can easily fool with relief stats. Most outing are going to be giving up zero runs, so when you inevitably get more lucky during certain periods, your stats look great. Think Josh Staumont. It's an accomplishment award rather than a prospect ranking, so these may or may not be guys who have a chance. Your best relievers are high, high velocity guys who K a ton and don't walk many (obviously). Very few come up through the minors as relievers and very few would be in one's top 40 prospects. So while it's fun to see if a names been on the list previously, that's pretty much the only value of listing this position. I think there was someone last year who won it multiple months. It wouldn't shock me if that player isn't pitching very well this year.

Top prospects: Just for reference (and by memory from a couple of weeks ago), I had Lee #2, Keaschall 4, EmRod 5, Mercedes 11, Eeles 16, Olivar 17, Beltre 21, Raya 25, Severino 30 prior to the draft picks being mixed in (the best of which would fit around 15). So, I had my starting pitchers Zebby 3, Morris 6 (and he's my personal favorite), Lewis 8, Festa 10, Bengard 13, CJ Culpepper 14 (due to injury), Soto 15, Lares 24, Raya 25. I don't have McCleod on there, though I likely would have put him in the 26-29 range (I went through 25 then made a point to put Severino at 30, knowing there were guys not listed still better than him). Raya is a reliever (or a bad starter). Bengard actually had me excited when I did the list, but I don't like the July Ks above if that's right. I won't worry a ton about it yet, given what the Twins are doing in their development system. FYI, for hitters I put a ton of weight on age vs level, K rate, as well as production. EmRod, frankly, is likely to struggle like Julien, though there might be more positives for me. For pitchers I'm not quite as detailed, more of "I know it when I see it" than it should be. But velocity, K rate, K:BB play into it, along with different-criterioned age vs level. What makes it tough is that the Twins are developing these guys quickly. BB rate is maybe more important than you'd think, given the Twins are increasing velocity and K rate. Finally, last year I was absolutely disgusted with the system after the first few players, some of whom were "gifted" to them in various ways (Jenkins/Lee). I saw so little and pretty much came to the conclusion that our scouts and development suck. However nearly everybody with any hope whatsoever seems to be having a great year. I absolutely love the system this year. I love the pitching development and the signings of undrafteds, and the hitters who could shine have. I have very little doubt the Twins could have done damage at the deadline had they dealt their future. Given that their handcuffs don't appear to be short-term, I tend to agree with their not giving up anybody teams would have wanted. Cleveland is still the model, though we all wish it were in the old way, not the new reality. I guess I'll list the ones I didn't: Jenkins 1, De Andrade 7, Gonzalez at 9, Dameury Pena at 12, Doncon at 18 (dropping), Keirsey 19 (dropping fast and ceiling was low), Winokur 20 (dropping), Daiber De Los Santos 22 (rising with Beltre), Schobel 23 (dropping). I'll bring my top 30 at end of August perhaps, which should include 3 of top 4 picks plus the 11th rd guy. Not sure whether Amick makes it, but he'll be in the 25-30 at best.

Yeah, I've had Beltre ahead of a lot of guys in the org, though admittedly I wouldn't be able to tell you how he hits a breaking ball. I do know he doesn't strike out, and that's huge. I've got him around 20 due to DSL and SSS but would expect that to zoom up next year if he handles the FCL. I've questioned the "17" a few times, but that's just because his production and peripherals seem...well, older. edit: Hadn't check his stat line in a while. He's striking out plenty now, more than plenty. It makes more sense than getting an overlooked "next Juan Soto," which is what everything looked like until a week or so ago.

I'm a K rate diehard, as you've probably seen and grown tired of. Chance of Yunior Severino becoming a decent MLBer? 0. Therefore, prospect status? None. In all my prospecting in all my leagues, I swear by K rate, and it rewards me. The one exception I've made to my hard and fast rules is Matt Wallner, and I'm not sure why. I've gotten the feeling while watching him progress that his Ks aren't so much about trying to hit the ball as they are about not caring about striking out when he goes up there. And if he does care about not striking out in a particular at-bat, he has a much different one. When this is the case, K rate doesn't tell the story. If Wallner has the ability to put together a good AB at will, then let him swing for the fences the rest of the time. I will say my theory about him got stressed at the beginning of the year.

This division thing is overblown. I'd fire a GM who wouldn't give up an average rental reliever to a rival. The only seasons that matter to me are future ones, and if the rival wants someone for next year as good as the rental reliever, they're going to get that someone in one form or another. If the rival doesn't want to give a bit of a lottery ticket to someone in its own division, I don't know what to tell you. Just seems so dumb.

Yep, it's not close. LK is nearly two years younger than Speer was, his K rate is lower, walk rate almost double, hit rate better, probably due to less fly balls, which Speer used to hit more homers. Speer is now a regular in MLB, Keaschall will be better, maybe much better. Keaschall for Fedde may have been an appropriate price for this deadline, but given the Twins financials, Keaschall as the Castro replacement makes a lost more sense.

FYI, Liranzo has been considered a really good prospect. I think BA ranks/ranked him 3rd in a system most teams can't come close to. He's young and had a monster year last year in his age 19 season. Appears to be struggling some this year in more of a pitcher's league, not a shocker given his K rate last year (and this). Better bet to be roster fill, I agree, but that's with most prospects. His lottery ticket still has value. Sweeney's has expired.

Falvey said he didn't have those financial conversations with ownership because no trade came around. Does that mean in the last few minutes before the deadline, he'd be calling up Jim and Joe to see whether he could get money for someone that fell into his lap? What if Joe was on the golf course?

And we wait four paragraphs for it! I kid, sort of. I realized this wasn't an article prompted by anything positive coming from a minor league lhp when three paragraphs went by without introducing the subject of the piece. It's probably a better MO to cover the state of the lhp's in the system where Brent Headrick gets the half line he deserves,

The good news is that Jay Harry is nothing (except to his family) in the scheme of things, and the Twins probably correctly think only a few fans of millions even know his name. They DFA or 60-day someone now when adding Richards, then bring someone up when DFAing him. The bigger deal is that it will probably end up costing the Twins a few games in the meantime. Meanwhile, 22 minutes to deadline, about 45 minutes to find out about the late trades.

9 ER in last 4.2 IP. Bad last few years. How and why are the Twins going to use him? If the Twins already had him, I think we'd be calling for a DFA. Absolutely the only thing I can think of is that someone somewhere in the org thinks they can fix him in some way. Giving up zero is fine, but he still costs, and he costs a roster spot.

Nobody wants Schobel; it's similar to Keaschall.

I'd want Quantrill far more than Kikuchi, but it's a seller's market. If you're not going to re-sign CQ, then do you give up Festa? You know that every team is going to go after Zebby and Morris, and I really don't trust Falvey. What a sh**sh**.

You're looking at the wrong variable. Either that or you must think the Yankees really, really are cheap. This is such a bad and short-sighted series of moves by the Twins. But I'll also say that looking at 2023 revenue for 2024 payroll likely isn't the way to go about it. So, you're wrong, and the tweet is misleading. Obviously, there's a certain % of projected current year revenue that's intended to go to current year salaries. The Twins have probably been out over their skis for some time now, and with the unknown of TV dollars, they're drawing a new line in the cement. According to their model, they have to do this. They likely figure they can resume at a new salary level when TV revenue is secured for the future. And that's it. It's a business, and it's certainly a business to minority owners. Part of getting owners to come on is guaranteeing them certain returns, and if that's in the contract, that's in the contract...in whatever form. Assuming they have minority owners, which I can't seem to find. I do understand plenty of Pohlads have stakes, so nephew Zeke has an agreement. Anyway, the money model is what it is, the budget is discussed and approved, and I doubt any Pohlad has the pocketchange/insanity to say, "hey, I'll give $30 million of my own money to make this or that happen, you get dinner at Manny's." The infrastructure of how money is handled can be changed, but I highly doubt Joe Pohlad can just change it on the fly.

I can't imagine the Twins doing anything good here. Their track record as buyers is abysmal, and they've never been in this bad of $$$ shape before. This all seems to add up to hugely overpaying for a really mediocre return that won't be better than what they have or what they could promote. Just to say they were trying. I don't know whether they could get this done, but I'd try to trade Raya for Quantrill. Colorado is one of the few organizations I can imagine accepting Severino as filler. Get it done.

I wouldn't trade Lewis. He's recovering and was ahead of the two other prior. I have Raya ranked lower than 25, many spots ahead of Severino. I just don't understand some of these rankings. I have Morris at 6, just behind (for now) 5. Emmanuel Rodriguez, 4. Keaschall, 2.5 Zebby, 2.5 Lee, and 1. Jenkins. I wouldn't put a draft pick in the top 12.

Boy, there haven't been any problems with Fubo, other than the clunkiness of my Roku remote. Getting rid of Comcast cable has been one of the best decisions I've made. I'll get rid of Fubo, too, once I can start subscribing directly to Twins/Wolves games, maybe before.

"Been" being the key word. It's now been almost a month of meh.

LOL at BA having Festa at 93 overall. I have Festa as 11 or 12 on the Twins. Also Raya at 25 for Twins.

If Hill would have been an early pick ten plus years ago then I'm all on board with it. Definitely not impressed with the first three.

.306 with a 2:1 K:BB. Huh. In college. Not the greatest start to things. You'd think they'd be all over the Luke Keaschall profile for as long as they're drafting position players.

Didn't hit well vs higher competition is what they said. That doesn't bode well.