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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I am with you. I need to see four series wins in a row before I am a buyer. Atlanta would be a big step in that direction.
  2. jorgenswest
    Great job by the bullpen! Nice series win. It is time for the Twins to start showing they are buyers by winning the Braves series.
  3. jorgenswest
    I find the endless debate about Buxton the same as the endless debate about Mauer. Tiresome and unending. In both cases I trust that the Twins management is going by the advice and recommendations of their medical professionals. I am OK with not knowing the details and appreciate any privacy about health issues they protect. In both cases aI also trusted that the entire staff would prefer Buxton to be in CF and Mauer at catcher. I also don’t believe these decisions were the responsibility of the on field staff. I likely am in the minority but in order to avoid this (to me) tiresome and endless debate I will need to do the same as I did in Mauer’s time and put those who can’t let this go on the ignore list. I would suggest they do the same for me.
  4. jorgenswest
    Do you think the Twins medical staff incorrect in assessing that Buxton should not be playing in the field?
  5. jorgenswest
    Seems like some moves coming based on watching game but not yet hearing any reports. De Leon must be headed to IL. They will need an arm to come back. Did Ortega leave yet? Is Buxton headed to IL? That would be u fortunate timing with his recent bat. Wallner or Larnach? Julien seems so far from playing a passable 2B. I even question whether his throwing action is even fixable. He must have had it in college where they also moved him around looking for a home. Does he need to go to AAA and find another position? You just can’t miss on double plays. Those misses cause long innings and the need to go to the bullpen sooner. His double rate in the minors was so poor and I question whether it can ever improve to a passable level.
  6. jorgenswest
    His OK strikeout rate and very poor walk rate are virtually the same as last year. He has limited home runs this year compared to last but that stat is nowhere near stable at this point. His BABIP against is much lower than his career norm. It would be really unwise to believe his skill has changed based on an ERA that needs a huge sample to stabilize. If his strikeout rate were up and walk rate down he might be a consideration. With those the same I think the Rockies would be really wise to try to find a team to sell high. I don’t think Pagán or Gallo would be of interest as they would want a prospect. I would only be interested in trading prospects that are borderline 40 man roster calls for 2024… maybe someone like DeShawn Keirsey Jr. edit: I just checked his BTV value and it is 14.8 which suggests Lawrence is their most valuable trade chip on the major league roster. I have no interest in buying high on a reliever.
  7. jorgenswest
    Maeda and Vazquez took advantage of the umpire’s strike zone really early on, Maeda only needed to throw 38 of 83 pitches in the strike zone to get to his 53 strikes.
  8. jorgenswest
    They just split a 4 game series at home against the last place team in the AL East. This isn’t close enough to a World Series contender yet. It would be nice to see them win 4 series in a row. That is what they would need to do in the playoffs against the best teams. The best they have done is two series in a row this year. The playoffs are not a crapshoot. Some write that they just need to go 13-9. It should be added that they have to go 13-9 while winning 4 series in a row. Start out 1-2 or 4-4 and they are done. They don’t get the opportunity to get to the 13-9. They should hold for now neither selling or buying. If they can win 4 series in a row by July 30 go ahead and go for it. Be a buyer. Otherwise I think they should sell off their expiring contracts. Winning the central is not enough to sell the future. For now, if they were to move on from Kepler, Gallo or Pagán I would not consider that selling.
  9. jorgenswest
    The ace of the staff.
  10. jorgenswest
    Big hits from Farmer, Kepler, Vazquez and Buxton. Shut down inning from Moran. Let’s do it again tomorrow.
  11. jorgenswest
    After the Rays series I said I am a seller short of them going 29-15 or better up until the deadline. I think I also framed it the best in the AL in that time period. They started strong against Toronto and Milwaukee and have revealed their mediocrity since. I may define contention differently. Contending for the AL Central is not enough. They need to show they can contend in the playoffs. The playoffs are not a crapshoot. They would need to win 4 consecutive series. The best they have done during the season is winning two consecutive series. They haven’t shown anything close to a team that can win 4. I would hold fast for now. There are of series a true playoff contender should win up to the deadline. Go dominate the next 20% of the season. Holding fast means I am not trading Gray for now. If Kepler or Gallo or Pagán are moved I wouldn’t see that as being a seller.
  12. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it is wise to believe that his next two months will be as dependable as his previous two months. The sample is too small. Solano in a role starting against left handed pitching and ready on the bench against a right handed starting pitcher will play to his strengths. That might require Lewis to play 2B against a lefty.
  13. jorgenswest
    Sometime later this year I expect the same article about Kirilloff. Young players are going to struggle and go through some rough stretches. I would let both Lewis and Miranda work it out here. There is space for both with Kirilloff in RF. They don’t need to play everyday to develop. (Note: veteran’s go through rough stretches also but there are other discussions to address those concerns).
  14. jorgenswest
    I guess not but this is mostly a hindsight question. It takes multiple years of splits of slash stats to stabilize. Many of the players on the roster don’t have that kind of data to base it on slash stats. If we are talking about this one great career line and assume the player is healthy and not at the end of their career I would imagine he maximizes his playing time.
  15. jorgenswest
    I have appreciated Solano since watching him break out as a 31 year old with the Giants. He reminded me of Manny Mota then and it still fits. At 35 he should be a short side platoon player and a valuable bat on the bench. He is a batter I would want up in the late innings and runners in scoring position.
  16. jorgenswest
    It matters how you get to those 70s. Did you get there is 4 innings or is 5 or 6 innings? Did you get there by having a 27 and 35 pitch inning? I think if you look to that detail you might see that Gray is treated differently because he arrived at those pitch count numbers differently. This is on Gray. Throw strikes to the Detroit hitters in the bottom half of the line up instead of putting up inning pitch counts of 27 and 35 by walking four of them and you will stay in the game. Against a team like Detroit we need him pitching 7 innings instead coming out after 4 and questioning whether he should get a 5th inning. He can’t get to 7 without throwing strikes.
  17. jorgenswest
    Only one team has more innings from their starters this year than the Twins. If you throw an inning like his fourth yesterday after having large pitch count second inning you are going to have an early exit. Teams need to protect their pitching assets. This is on Gray. The Twins need him to be better. He needs to trust his defense and start attacking hitters particularly at the bottom of the order.
  18. jorgenswest
    Winder is the current long man. The problem with a long man like Winder is once they go long they aren’t available for a few days. I guess they could have sent him down and flipped him with Headrick. Headrick is the best option as the next starter ready right now. It is good to keep him stretched out as the “6th starter” in AAA. I wouldn’t be surprised if he fills the Twins TBA starter slot Saturday. That start could also be given to Winder.
  19. jorgenswest
    If there is a need at catcher the Twins should call up Wolters because he is more ready to help the team win with both the bat and the glove. The Twins are fortunate to have the veteran off the 40 and in AAA as the third catcher.
  20. jorgenswest
    Are there instances of the other starters with a mid game 30+ pitch inning where they went back out at around 80 pitches? I think Gray has a few of these recently. I suppose Gray’s three trips to the IL last year might also be a factor in the decision. Easy solution. Gray needs to be better.
  21. jorgenswest
    Kirilloff and Solano have pretty similar stat profiles in 2023. They both have good OBP but less SLG and ISO than you might expect from a corner player. Both have relatively low launch angles and exit velocities though Kirilloff’s are a couple of percent below Solano. Both have high BABIPs. Are they perceived as similarly?
  22. jorgenswest
    It seems wise to pull a pitcher after a 35 pitch fourth inning. It is a long season and starting pitching depth is thin with Mahle out on Maeda a question mark. Yo pitches even,y split after 4 innings isn’t as stressful as when the 4th of those innings is 35. The solution is an easy one. Gray needs to pitch better and he needs to be dominant against the teams with losing records. This is on Gray.
  23. jorgenswest
    The Giants game gets referenced frequently. Isn’t it the case that virtually all of the offense in that game came from those bench moves? I think the three were on base 6 of 8 plate appearances and accounted for the only run. Somehow that has been forgotten over time. Kepler also got on base when he pinch hit for Lewis. That would make it 7 for 9 in those two games. Is the argument that it is the process and results are irrelevant? Should Kirilloff start against left handed pitching? If he gives the Twins a better chance to win then yes. I would qualify that yes if the medical staff recommends giving him some time off for his wrist. In that case I would maximize the plate appearances against right handed pitching.
  24. jorgenswest
    This line up needs Julien’s bat and strike zone awareness. I wonder if first base is the spot. I think Kirilloff can play RF adequately. There will be openings on the corners in 2024 and hopefully sooner.
  25. jorgenswest
    Adequate… Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.
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