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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Why do you suppose batters hit so much better in a 3-1 count than a 3-2 count?
  2. jorgenswest
    Both answers are based on recollection… A few years back when the AAA ended on labor day players rehabbed at the instructional site in simulated games. I would think that it would be the same now. I don’t think options are a consideration when choosing a playoff roster. It seems like teams have left off pitchers in a short series that won’t start and can’t help the bullpen. I don’t believe they have to option them and that those non rostered players can remain on the 40 while not on the 26.
  3. jorgenswest
    Julien is already so valuable and I think there is capacity for so much more. Over time he will he better against lefties. He will find a defensive home. The one area I think will have the biggest impact is his approach once he gets to three balls. Players typically do really well when the count is 3-1. The Twins as a team have a triple slash of 299/734/563. Julien is missing opportunities here. He has one hit when the count is 3-1. He rarely swings. His triple slash is 100/550/100. The result is usually a 3-2 count. The problem with going to a full count is that the OPS in this count by team is cut in half. Julien is hitting .102 with a full count. He does get a lot of walks. He also strikes out at a rate only topped by Gallo. I don’t have the number but it seems like many of those strike outs are looking. If he can adjust his approach to take advantage of those 3-1 counts he will even be more valuable. He has the skill and eye to get to that batter’s count. Now he needs to start taking advantage of it and punish pitchers in that count.
  4. jorgenswest
    Concur. It is just going to take more time because he isn’t going to get that repetition in the majors. He isn’t ready. They saw that in the spring. They don’t need to keep seeing it. He has the off season. He has next spring. He is a valuable bat against right handed pitching now. That is why they need him. Lots of guys gradually increase their ability to hit lefties over the first few years. It isn’t going to happen in months in the majors. The repetition isn’t possible. For Julien he may never get there and he will still be a valuable player on the roster. The decision to bring him up and platoon him him was the correct decision.
  5. jorgenswest
    The minors is the place to develop and he had real work to do there with the glove and the bat against left handed pitching. That work was evident entering the season and I believe the Twins hoped that he could get a long run in the minors. That changed with the Polanco injury. His bat was more than ready to hit major league right handed pitchers. Did they make the right decision to bring him up at that point or should they have let him develop further with the glove and the bat against lefties? Occasional at bats against lefties in the majors won’t move the needle at all. The travel schedule in the majors is not conducive to work outside of the games. The minors is the place to develop. In the majors you need to perform.
  6. jorgenswest
    More from @Seth Stohs list of Twin minor leaguer home run leaders. I saw Stan Holmes play on that 1983 Visalia team. His 37 home runs were nearly half the team total of 84. No one else had more than 10. Kirby Puckett hit 9. Holmes was the MVP of the 1981 College World Series for Arizona State. He played catcher and third base. He wasn’t the only ASU College World Series member the Twins drafted. Luis Lopez Lagunas played shortstop for the famed 1965 ASU team that won the College World Series. He hit his 35 home runs in his first full season in the minors. I think the remaining on the list made it into a major league game. The leader Tim Laudner played for the 1981 Orlando team managed by Tom Kelly and included several players that would make an impact on the Twins. I also want to dispel on notion that maybe these guys started hitting home runs at an older age. Lagunas was 22 when he his his 35 home runs. Holmes was 23 and the same age as Kirby Puckett when they played together in Visalia. Moe Hill was older when he hit the 41 but he was 23 when he hit 22 of Orlando’s team total of 47 home runs in 1970 and hit over 30 home runs in the three seasons leading up to the 41. They just never got a chance in the major leagues.
  7. jorgenswest
    It was a clear strike. I regret writing close.
  8. jorgenswest
    I may be back with thoughts on a few others on the list but let’s start with Moe Hill. The year he hit 41 home runs followed three season where he had hit over 30. All fours seasons were with Wisconsin Rapids where he was never promoted. He spent most of the decade at Wisconsin Rapids. You might wonder if everyone hit home runs in Wisconsin Rapids. The year he hit 41 the rest of the team combined for 59. Future majors leaguers Scott Ullger hit 5 and Mark Funderburk 3 (in 130 PAs). Why didn’t he get a chance? That’s a mystery. Former teammate Terry Ryan didn’t have an answer. Moe has thoughts. Another prolific hitter stuck in the minors more than a decade earlier is Chuck “Spoony” Weatherspoon. He had a season with 7 grand slams. That season he hit 31 home runs (the rest of the team 37), scored 121, drove in 123 and led the team in stole bases with 21. He played catcher and outfield.
  9. jorgenswest
    It is getting crowded but I don’t think they add Keirsey. At 26 his wRC+ at AA (120) and AAA(109) is pretty common. His experience may have allowed him to take better advantage of the tiny robo-strike zones to increase his walk rate. I think many teams already have a guy with his profile in their system. The Twins really had two in he and Stevenson. There is another Stevenson in the Phillies system. Cal is age 26, plays centerfield, has a good walk rate and OBP. His wRC+ is 123. He has had a couple of cups of coffee in the major leagues. It all looks good until you realize Jake Cave was with that AAA team also and had a wRC+ of 171. Stevenson was in the majors with Oakland and in AAA with them. In a short stint he had a wRC+ of 141 in AAA. On that team there are a handful of guys better and J.J. Bleday who has the same profile put up better numbers. Bleday was a prospect a few years back with the Marlins and did get a chance this year with the A’s with pretty poor results. I think the run scoring context of the upper minors this year gives a false impression of players particularly this that are older. There are a lot of Keirsey’s out there and I wouldn’t worry about losing him in a rule 5 draft. There will be a Cal Stevenson to pick up as a minor league free agent.
  10. jorgenswest
    Julien has the skill to be better than that number. If in his previous at bat he had even just moved the runner over with a ground out I stick with him. It was those two previous at bats where he needs to get the message that they need him to compete when there are two strikes. He has the skill to fight those close pitches off. I hope we see a better Julien come October. Maybe a message was received today. If it is me and the manager sends out his weakest hitter to pinch hit for me in the 9th it is going to shake me up quite a bit.
  11. jorgenswest
    After Julien's previous at bat I would have had a hard time sending him out there in the 9th. 4-4 game. No outs. Farmer on first. 3-2 count. Twins send Farmer. Julien can't take a close pitch much less a strike in that situation. He needs to get that runner into scoring position. Julien strikes out looking and Farmer is caught stealing. Second time in the game he was caught looking at strike 3. The first time was after the pitcher is on the ropes having given up home runs to the last two batters. He needs to be more competitive there and fight off a close pitch. Keep the pitcher on the ropes. He looks at far too many called strike threes. The options were awful in the 9th inning. Do you send Julien and his OPS of 423 (13 strike outs and 0 walks) against left handed pitching. I was sure a strike out caught looking would happen in that case. Do you send Vazquez and his 595 OPS against right handed pitching? It's a lose-lose situation here. The choice isn't clear cut to me. In most games I probably hope on Julien but not after his previous at bat.
  12. jorgenswest
    Concur. The Twins should expect around 18 position players to get significant playing time next year. Larnach is valuable depth with that remaining option. I think of Miranda similarly. They both will get an opportunity next year and with that opportunity they can take that step towards being a valuable regular.
  13. jorgenswest
    Going for 4 series wins in a row! That is the kind of consistency needed in the playoffs.
  14. jorgenswest
    I think the concern his 28 days (80 PAs) where it is much closer to Gallo’s at 38.8%. That is a shift from his 28.2% prior. Strikeout rate stabilizes at about 60PAs so a change in 10.6% is significant. Is it possible the league has adjusted and now he needs to adjust? I noticed you included Garlick(30 PAs) but not Gordon(11.8% in 93PAs). You also did not include Miranda(15.8% in 152PAs). Wallner has some time to make that adjustment but if his is still closer to the recent 38 than 28 they should consider alternatives in the playoffs.
  15. jorgenswest
    No
  16. jorgenswest
    Retaining Kepler and Pagán was the right decision against the wishes of many. Some were trading Polanco also. Those three are much more help than they would have received at the deadline. They were their first gamble and it looks like it will get them to the post season. The second gamble is that in house options like Varland, Funderburk, Stewart, Alcala, Paddock and perhaps Maeda will be more valauble to the pen than what they may have acquired. That is yet to be seen but many of the relief options moved at the deadline have struggled with their new teams.
  17. jorgenswest
    A guy who works so hard to get back to the majors and by all accounts is a valuable teammate. That guy deserves more respect. We can do better here.
  18. jorgenswest
    They need to find someone better in order for that to happen. I am hoping that Alcala, Paddack, Ober and Stewart will be healthy so he is not needed. The loss tonight was a team effort though. Errors. Passed balls on strikes. Running into outs on bases. In Floro’s case the inning is very different if Kirilloff makes the correct play and takes the ball to first base himself. His inning should have started with one out. The same thing yesterday where Wallner didn’t make a play when Jax entered. I think Correa also started off an inning with an error. If they make the plays tonight it is a different outcome. When they don’t, pitch counts escalate and runs score.
  19. jorgenswest
    Expect that it takes time and multiple periods of adjustment to be a successful major league hitter. Expect learning and growth to happen but it happens from periods of struggle.
  20. jorgenswest
    When does the fall instructional camp start? I would guess that might be more valuable to any of the drafted players.
  21. jorgenswest
    In defense of Jax he got Lindor to pop up with an expected batting average of .070. Instead of an out it was ruled a double. A left fielder with any kind of range makes that play. Later Stewart fights through a 9 pitch at bat. Credit to Stewart for the at bat but I also think Jax can pitch a little differently if Lindor isn’t standing on third with one out instead of two. The run expectancy of a runner on second with no outs vs bases empty and one out is very different. If the Twins make that play I don’t think the Mets score.
  22. jorgenswest
    I believe this is the first time this season where the Twins won 3 series in a row.
  23. jorgenswest
    His statcast numbers were OK to start the season. The slash stats in that sample don’t tell the story of how well he was hitting the ball. His xBA and xSLG this year are both better than Julien’s. They are both better than Castro’s. Gordon’s BABIP this year was .179. It was .340 last year and above .300 in every professional season. It would be really foolish to make any projections for the future based on the slash stats of less than 100 plate appearances this year. That doesn’t mean he can get himself ready to help in the playoffs. He has been out a long time. It is good news that he might be able to help and offer some security against other injuries.
  24. jorgenswest
    Reading the link from @USAFChief I think he would need the be on the 60 for 60 which makes me wonder how the added player would get to the 40. I guess a healthy player could be DFA’d. That could be someone like Henriquez or someone they determined they will remove in the off-season.
  25. jorgenswest
    I am curious whether his status on the IL gives them additional flexibility adding someone not on the 40 to the playoff roster. I would argue they could have released him before September 1 and chosen someone then. I guess doing it later gives them more time to see what they might need. For example if something happens that Jeffers is out for the first series they wouldn’t want to IL him but would rather add extra catcher in another roster spot.
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