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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I think both years were very similar. The slash stats favor 2023. Underneath those numbers is his ratio of at bats against left handed hitters. In 2022 when he was a regular he had a higher ratio of plate appearances against right handed batters which drove down his overall numbers. His fWAR in both years was virtually the same and both a drop from 2021. I think teams would probably project some decline with the glove and bat and would not view him as a starter at SS but rather a useful veteran addition to the bench. The return should be similar.
  2. jorgenswest
    What is the demand? The supply is low as starting shortstops are not hitting free agency. Doesn’t that mean the demand will be low? The Marlins are looking for an upgrade but they are trying to upgrade from Berti who is the same age which slightly above average defensive metrics and an OPS+ of 103. Farmer would be a downtown grade. For comparison Berti’s BtV value is 11.4 and Farmer’s is 1.6. Rosario is 9.8. I think only Mondesi in your tweet is lower. In the top 30 MLB pipeline there are 12 shortstops including 5 of the first 11. Ten of those have an ETA of 2024 or played at the end of last season. The Giants may move on from Crawford but they have one of those top SS prospects. The White Sox may move on from Anderson but they have one too. The Dodgers need a SS but they aim for the World Series. I think they will set their sites higher. I don’t see the demand and it may have been easier to trade Farmer last year when several teams lost a good starter and the demand was high. Farmer’s value at BTV value just below Balazovic, Headrick and Sabato. It might be a toss up whether to tender him and DFA someone else. They can trade him at the expense of someone like Balazovic but there is no gain. They will end up getting back in trade about what they lost. I think it is reasonable to expect a return similar to what they received for Urshela or traded for Farmer.
  3. jorgenswest
    He is out of options. Would you make him the number 5 starter? Would you DFA him in hopes of getting him through waivers and then start him in AAA?
  4. jorgenswest
    Berti is 33 with an OPS of 749 and slightly above average defensive metrics. I don’t see how Farmer at the same age would be an upgrade. An upgrade might be their number 5 prospect who has a very good glove. Is that the best we have in a demand for Farmer? I think there are more prospects in the pipeline than starters retiring. Crawford from the Giants? There are 12 shortstops in the top 30 of the MLB pipeline. Many have any ETA of 2024 or arrived in late 2023. The Giants have one of them.
  5. jorgenswest
    A back up could be the top SS. It is a zero sum game. No one is losing a starting shortstop to free agency either. There are a few other teams with a tender or option decision like the White Sox and Anderson but that only adds to the supply when White Sox decide to go with their top prospect Montgomery. It actually might have a better market for the Reds to deal Farmer last year with so many teams in need of a SS. It could be a similar return as Urshela or similar to what the Twins traded. In that case it becomes a choice about whether the guy they take off the 40 to tender and trade Farmer is worth more than what they can get back for Farmer. If it is a player like Balazovic, I think it will be a close call.
  6. jorgenswest
    For any of these decisions options have a lot of value to the Twins. Alcala, Moran, Henriquez and Ortega have options remaining. Luplow, Stevenson, Gordon and Balazovic are out of options. They need to sustain performance at the major league level. Gordon is the only one who has shown sustained performance over a season unless you go back to 2019 for Luplow. I would give Gordon priority among the 4 who would need to be rostered all season. Free agents will be dropped from the roster and Farmer may be non tendered due to his arb 3 contract. After De León, Luplow, Stevenson I think Balazovic would be my next to go if roster space is needed. He is going to have to perform at a much higher level to make it through the season without DFA.
  7. jorgenswest
    I have no idea how his spring training shoulder injury impacted his season. Miranda shown in AAA a 156 (AA was 162) wRC+ in 2021 and a major league wRC+ of 117 in 2022. Neither of those numbers came with a high BABIP or high strikeout rates. Severino could get there. He had a wRC+ of 165 in high A in 2022 and his AA was 139 last year. He needs to show that kind of performance in AAA over an extended time period before I would plan for him to take over at 1B. Miranda has shown he can produce in extended periods at both AAA and the majors. That performance should not be disregarded.
  8. jorgenswest
    When should time run out? Some suggest 1500 plate appearances.
  9. jorgenswest
    Severino had a wRC+ of 100 in AAA in his 153 PAs. Severino’s numbers in AAA look good until you realize it is typical in the run scoring context of the International League. For context, Celestino was 106 last year and no one would be lobbying for him at corner position. I think Severino needs a half season in AAA to show a wRC+ of 130 or better and put up a lower strikeout rate. The Twins had the patience for Wallner to get to that level and lower his strike out rate. They need patience with Severino. It would help if Julien can play a passable 1B.
  10. jorgenswest
    I wonder if clarity in a TV contract needs to be high on the to do list.
  11. jorgenswest
    Three thoughts… Those 40 man spots are valuable in season and it is a burden to carry anyone that won’t see the major leagues. If they add anyone in free agency they would need to DFA someone. It might be better to keep that spot open. A DFA’d player only needs to be added to the 40. They don’t need to make the opening day roster like a rule 5 pick. The risk of losing an asset is greater. If you pick an Olivar in the rule 5 draft you need to keep him on the 26. If Olivar’s spot on the 40 is needed during the season he would need to be DFA’d and would only need to be kept on another team’s 40. The options clock starts as soon as a player is put on the 40. As an international signing Celestino was put on the 40 quite young and now he is out of options at the same age as Austin Martin who hasn’t started options yet. Willi Castro is an example of another player added to the 40 quite young and then didn’t flourish until it was too late for the Tigers. Using Olivar as an example again, should they start his options clock knowing catchers can take longer to be ready?
  12. jorgenswest
    Gordon’s RAA at SS is 0 and it is 0 at 2B as well as LF. He is only below 0 is center field. Castro has a lot of innings at SS and while below average not dismal. Lewis has a lot of minor league innings at SS. Lee is close to ready. Is that enough to risk letting Farmer and his arb3 go at age 33 where decline at both the bat and glove should be expected?
  13. jorgenswest
    Possible reasons for Gordon… His wRC+ on 2022 was 111 which would have ranked ninth on the team this year. As bad as his .179 BABIP season was this year his xBA and xSLG were both better than Castro’s. His strikeout rate was a very low 11.8% and probably the only number that stabilized in his sample this year. If the argument is that his 2022 performance isn’t good enough to make the team or even be taken to spring training then I look forward to next year’s roster.
  14. jorgenswest
    Would you fill to 40?
  15. jorgenswest
    Gordon’s cost is low enough to tender an offer. I also believe the Gordon of 2022 is the one they would be giving up. His BABiP was unsustainably low in the 100s in his small sample last year. It had been 300s previously. It is possible that Julien is the 1B and they get an offer they like for Polanco. That would open 2B and utility roles for Castro, Gordon, Farmer, Martin, Prato and Lee. A platoon of Gordon and Farmer or Martin could start the year until Lee eventually takes the job. Keeping this possibility open is worth the small cost.
  16. jorgenswest
    I think if you looked at other organizations you will find a Keirsey in most of them. Others will be available as minor league free agents like Andrew Stevenson. I really don’t think he will be taken. If he is pick up a minor league free agent like Cal Stevenson for depth. There were 146 AAA outfielders that had an wRC+ better than Keirsey of 93 last year. Many are younger and 28 played CF. There were 44 AA players with a wRC+ better than his 123. Most were younger than 26. The run scoring context of both of his leagues last year was inflated giving a skewed view of batting performance. I don’t think the stats support his addition to the 40 man roster. There may be things the Twins see outside the stats that would support his addition.
  17. jorgenswest
    Larnach and Wallner also?
  18. jorgenswest
    Julien at 1B has to be the plan next year.
  19. jorgenswest
    I agree. I was looking for a pitcher with two years of control and value in the neighborhood of Lee. I also looked at teams where budgets can sometimes be a factor to the point where they will sell high when the arb figure starts to go up and control is running out. Galen is the one I found. Is there a closer comp to where Lopez was a year ago?
  20. jorgenswest
    Keirsey will be 27 and had a 93 wRC+ in AAA. They just DFA’d Celestino and he is two years younger with a better 106 wRC+. I don’t see them adding Keirsey. I am not even sure they should retain Stevenson who was so much better in AAA. I concur with the addition of Rodriguez, Martin, Severino and Camargo. I haven’t seen Prato play other than on MiLB TV. No way to judge defense on TV. Sometimes when players play lots of positions they can’t play any well. His numbers were so bad in AA and when combined with AAA he is about a 120 wRC+. Is he major league ready to the point where they would let go of Farmer and/or trade Polanco?
  21. jorgenswest
    Winter trades of multiple players for 1 are difficult because all teams have 40 man roster challenges. Head over to BTV and Kirby is valued at 90.1. That exceeds the value of Lewis and Julien combined. Is that something the Twins should pursue? The best asset the Twins have to trade for a starting pitcher is Brooks Lee. If the DBacks were interested in moving Zac Galen and his two years of control Lee might get it done. A pitcher with one year of control like Glasnow might take Rodriquez and Festa. Buy low on Alek Manoah? Control until 2028. Blue Jays might be interested in Polanco in that deal.
  22. jorgenswest
    What were the alternatives? Gallo? He plays 1B better than anyone else on the roster. Luplow? No lefties in the pen with the possible exception of Valdez. Texas has several and I look forward to that discussion. Gordon? His readiness is as unknown as Buxton’s. I do trust that Kirilloff can’t play. His glove was valuable game 2 and in spite of the error in game 3 he would still be my 1B defensively to close out the game if healthy,
  23. jorgenswest
    The Athletic reported this summer that the robo umps used in AAA had a lot of problems. It wasn’t consistent between ballparks. It didn’t adjust hitter to hitter well. It was too small and overly favored the hitters according to Royce Lewis. The 2d box we get on tv has to be worse. I look at an ump score card and wonder how it adjusts for the different strike zone of each hitter. I wonder how it deals with a 3d pentagonal prism zone with the 2d imaging. Look at the game 2 win this week. I wonder whether those two center high called strikes were from the front of the zone. Where is the ball as it exits the back of the pentagon shaped plate? Did it catch the strike zone? Reyburn also seemed very consistent in how he “missed” pitches. I wondered so I went to their site and looked. Here is their brief description. I am mathematician and love this stuff but I still strongly prefer the human zone over the automated zone. I think it will be a while before it is ready and I think they learned that in AAA this year.
  24. jorgenswest
    They might just need to walk Alvarez every time. Every split whether it is against a right handed pitcher, night game, sep/oct, fly ball pitcher shows an OPS over 1000.
  25. jorgenswest
    In this case I think analytics point to Ryan and the performance as shown by season statistics point to Ober. I would have started Ober because all of his work leading up to the ALDS were focused on this date. They both get one start.
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