jorgenswest

I don’t get why my post was quoted here. There is nothing about ill will at all in mine. I don’t think there is ill will at all. I think there assessment of Gordon is that he isn’t talented enough for the four years of control to pay off. They had better be right because the roster is filled with players who are nearing them end of their careers.

Gordon was Super 2 so that seemingly small amount at the start of the arb process could mean more each of the next three years of control. The money still shouldn’t have swayed their decision. If they believed in the projections and believe in the fielding metrics from 2022 Gordon would have been valuable to the team when Polanco was traded. He could have been the platoon partner with Farmer at 2B with Julien at DH or 1B and the Santana money use for a bat that can play outfield. If they believed in the ZIPs projections he could have been an average CF in a platoon and insurance against Buxton. They may think they don’t need Buxton insurance. They didn’t believe. For Gordon’s sake I hope they are wrong. They also can’t make the mistake of letting go of four years of control when the budget is so tight. They are really gambling on several decline phase players in 2024 with little upside. It reminds me of the 2012 decisions to add players like Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis, Jamey Carroll, Jared Burton, Jeff Gray, Sean Burroughs, Joel Zumaya and Matt Carson. Additional they had given Pavano a two year addition the previous year, signed Nishioka to an inexpensive contract (relative to a starter), forfeited a Matt Capps comp pick in order to give him two more years and hoped on minor league free agent Sam Deduno. A few of these like Willingham and Burton worked OK for a year but all were short sighted. All had declined to little use by 2013 and they continued the cycle of mediocrity by adding Correia, Pelfrey and Roenicke.

Good move for both teams. If both achieve their projections it will be a win on both sides. The other player without a great fit is Larnach. He has options so he does fit as depth. There are a few teams other than the Marlins that could use a left handed bat. The Angels and Marlins might be a match for one of their right handed bats like Meyers or Adell.

I am not OK with how they spent the dollars. There are too many decline phase veterans I fear they will not release if they drop any further. I would not have tendered Farmer. I would not have signed Santana. I would not have taken whatever they are paying for DeSclafani’s contract. I would have taken those dollars and spent it on one single player preferably a starter but an everyday bat would fit also. A bat or stater that would push others down in the line up or rotation. The remaining holes would be filled from within.

I am OK with the payroll. I am OK with the ownership. I think it is very unlikely a new ownership would be as stable or as good to the community as the Pohlad’s have been over the long run. My A’s colleagues out on the west coast have continually begged for new ownership. With each new ownership they are left wishing they had the previous one back.

Makes sense. Paddack was pretty effective until the injury. I hope that DeSclafani doesn’t throw too many ineffective innings while injured. If he isn’t right IL him.

Are expectations of a global MLB.com #42 prospect reasonable? Go back 10 years and look at the 42s from 2014-2018. All of these players have had a chance to establish themselves. 2014 - Carl Edward’s Jr. 2015 - Michael A Taylor 2016 - Anthony Alford 2017 - Hunter Renfroe 2018 - Michel Baez They are surrounded by Jorge Soler and AJ Puk in 2013 and 2019. If you expand to the 41s and 43s you will find Max Fried and little else. If he needs three options years in order to become an average regular through his service time that will be a huge plus and better than most in that grouping. If he makes multiple all star teams he is with the top of this class.

If either isn’t 100% early in the spring they should utilize the 60. They are going to need time at 100% building up and they will probably need the full rehab slot. That will take close to the 60 days. These two pitchers are going to need to be 100% to be helpful. Give them the early part of the season to get right. There probably won’t be a time in the season where the Twins are healthier than in April. They will need them at their best as other injuries occur.

Did the recent moves drop their projection by a win or two?

Absolutely go after Cabrera. It might take Emmanuel Rodriguez though. The Marlins have been rumored to trade a starter and they must be getting calls from many teams. They want an upgrade of Berti at SS and the Twins aren’t a fit without trading Lee. They really aren’t a fit at catcher either short of Jeffers. I wouldn't trade either in a Cabrera deal. The Brewers might be the best fit if they want Cabrera or Rogers with Willy Adames as the headliner in return. They also have a better catching prospect to offer in Quero if the Marlins prefer. As for right handed bat, I hope they don’t add another decline phase player that helps in a short side platoon. I would rather take a risk of a younger player with upside that has struggled. Offer Gordon or Larnach in a parallel trade for someone like Jo Adell or Jake Meyers.

Possibly a fair offer but how does one year of Kepler fit on a White Sox team that has been selling?

Not necessarily. Weiss will probably be DFA’d also. Balazovic was headed towards DFA sometime this spring. I am not sure about the timing but teams will have more roster space next week when they can put players on 60 day IL. Will it make it easier for a team to find space to claim him or will his waiver period end before that date making it more difficult? In any case, I don’t think he is ready to be on a major league staff that plans to contend and he is out of options. If claimed he will likely be available again.

I should have included Varland in my post. He was also ranked in TD’s 2022 prospects behind Balazovic, Winder and Sands. It looks like his stuff is going to work in the major leagues.

Is David Festa’s path to this point very different from Jordan Balazovic or Josh Winder or even Cole Sands? They excelled in AA. Rereading Aaron Gleeman’s top prospect profiles and there seem to be a lot of parallels. What will set Festa apart from them?

I would keep him as a starter as long as possible. Varland had one relief appearance in AAA. Jax had one AAA relief appearance before he was needed in 2022.

Bottom line unfortunately for their finances relative to the other teams revenue from home games hasn’t been very good over the last 5 years in spite of 3 pretty good seasons.

How many good years will it take? They won the central 2019 and 2020 and still ranked 19th in 2021. Short of the excitement of a new stadium maybe they aren’t going to rank much higher than 19th is their peak. I will add that not only did they rank 19th last year but their ticket prices relative to other teams is in the bottom 10. This is harder to find reliable data on. statista has them 29th in average ticket price, USA Today 21st and ticket city.com has them 28th based on average sales. They have lower attendance and they are taking in fewer dollars with each ticket sold in spite of winning the AL Central three of the last five seasons.

It didn’t help the finances either that immediately after the 2019 season they had no attendance. In 2021 after two winning seasons they ranked 19th like last year. It does t seem like winning has been a good formula for attendance.

The run scoring context of AAA was extreme last year. His ERA was better than the league by about the same rate as his trade teammate Austin Martin’s wRC+. TD has Martin ranked 6th though relative to league they were essentially the same. I do wonder if the ABS automated strike zone impacted pitchers with movement more than other pitchers. According to the Athletic the zone was small and inconsistent between parks. Last year, the ABS calls strikes solely based on where the ball crosses the midpoint of the plate, 8.5 inches from the front and the back. It was a two dimensional zone. Wouldn’t pitches with more movement be more likely to drop out of the zone before the midpoint or drop into the zone after the midpoint? The AAA ABS isn’t going to find those strikes. The rationalization, according to MLB executive VP Morgan Sword, is a 2D zone allowed the robocalls to better match the representations of what was presented to fans. I could go on more on my thought about the automated strike zone but it is crazy that you would change the strike zone to match what people are seeing on the screen. Does everyone believe the zone they see on TV we believe is accurate? Do they assume if an umpire’s call is different it must be the umpire’s failure? The reports that came out last year had me do a 180 on my hopes for an automated zone. Back to SWR I do have hope in his stuff+ and the quality of movement on his pitches. His velocity needs to be better. He is about the same age as many of the pitchers drafted in the last two years with much more experience at the upper level of the minors. I think that makes him a better bet to be successful than Lewis or Culpepper at this point and more ready to help the Twins in 2024 than Festa.

The Twins won the central leading it virtually all of the way. They had their biggest payroll ever. Where was the attendance? They couldn’t even get to 2 million. They ranked 19th and were closer to Tampa Bay at 27 than to San Francisco at 17.

The bar for a waiver claim is whether the player will provide depth in AAA. Last year St. Paul used 39 pitchers. The previous year it was 50. Many arms are needed and the claim/waive cycle is a way to build that depth. They go through position players also using 34 and 44. More attention probably should be paid to players signing a minor league deal and offered a spring training invite like Goodrum or Alexy this off season.

Not embarrassed and I appreciate the Pohlad’s. They have to be among the best ownership groups over my time in Minnesota. The Lakers and North Stars moved. Norm Green and Bob Short are slotted in on the bottom. Is there any other clearly ahead of the Pohlad’s? The Pohlad’s must be preferable to the Griffith’s. Max Winter might top the list. I think he sold to the Pohlad’s and then to Headrick. Maybe Zygi Wilf is the best? Football is hard to compare though. The revenue is shared so much more equally. Craig Leipold? Glen Taylor? I have colleagues that are fans of the A’s. They always complain about the owners. With each ownership change they move from the relief of getting rid of the last group to the realization that they are worse off now than they were before. I think there is a lot to appreciate about the Pohlad’s and their really long run of ownership of the Twins.

Perhaps we better get back to the topic. Jay Jackson has had a fascinating career. He drafter in the 9th round in 2008. By 2009 he had advanced to AAA in the Cubs organization at 20 years old. We talk about how fast Brooks Lee advanced to AAA. He was the 8th pick. Jay Jackson was picked in the 9th round (pick 281). Of all players selected and signed at 281, Jay Jackson is second in career WAR (6.9 behind Tony Gonsolin). After his first full season Baseball America had him ranked in their top 100 (98). I am not sure there is another 9th rounder that can make that claim. He has been with more teams than I want to count so I will stick to organizations. Cubs, Marlins, Pirates, Brewers, Padres, Hiroshima, Brewers again, Chiba Lotte, Reds, Giants, Braves, Blue Jays, Twins Wow! This guy must love to play baseball. Imagine the stories he has to tell. Let’s hope this is his best stop in the majors.

What is an acceptable performance for DeSclafini? 10% greater than league average ERA? 15%? How many starts do you give DeSclafini without meeting that bar?

They still had to take him. Many (including TD and Mayo) had them taking Jacob Gonzalez.