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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. I wouldn’t move him down based on the second Oriole game. Kremer and Ober also struggled facing the same team in two consecutive starts. I still don’t think it would be a bad move to option out Wood Richardson to have a starter for Sunday. It might give them the best chance to set up the rotation and bullpen for the Guardians and Royals week. It doesn’t seem like a bullpen day would be a good idea but I suppose starting Matthews or Festa could turn into a bullpen day. They could be very aggressive with moves looking towards next week. They could start Zebby on Sunday and then return him for an extra lefty in Funderburk. Funderburk can stay for that week until the 28th when the would need to use Festa. SWR could be back after that.
  2. I did not remember having the impression that the Orioles deal for Burnes was better. According to MLBTR and a quote by Burnes the Orioles offer was not better. There offer was two years short of the DBacks offer and a little deceptive because of the differed money. The DBacks offered the 6 years and the Orioles would not go past 4. It kind of reminds me when we would hear reports of the Twins being involved in negotiation for free agent pitchers like Wheeler only to not go far enough to get them. I thought at the time the Twins weren’t really serious and part of them making those offers was PR while knowing all along it wasn’t going to be quite enough. It kind of feels like that with the Orioles offer. They knew 4 years wasn’t going to do it and the deferred money makes the offer seem better than it was. I think Burnes and Boras took the better offer with the DBacks. All the same, I would be pretty disappointed Orioles fan when I see that the only multiyear commitment was a moderate contract to O’Neill with the rest to aging veterans in Morton, Sugano, Sanchez and Kittredge. They also added Gibson and Carlson. Thus far those Orioles off season have combined for -1.9 fWAR. I still don’t think I need to be too careful for what I wish for related to the Twins ownership. I appreciate what the Pohlad’s have contributed to the community but it is time for new owners. I get that the new owners will likely come in setting the same payroll constraints as the Pohlad family.
  3. I was wondering about that too. The rain out in the Saints game didn’t help. It could have been Festa’s game. He hasn’t pitched since the 6th. If he doesn’t pitch today I would assume he had a simulated game yesterday to be ready for Sunday. Matthews last pitched on the 10th so the 18th would be an extended space between starts. Either is available. I wondered why not pitch Festa today. If he is healthy maybe they had the rotation set for the Guardians and Royals next week and didn’t want to interrupt that. Maybe they want to take the opportunity to set up the rotation differently and it will be Festa or Matthews in a different day. As for the 26 they may DFA Alcala or I guess the could option Woods Richardson.
  4. So fun to watch the defense and the speed on the bases. In those streaks when his bat is going strong it is glimpses of Willie Mays from when I was a kid. I am not saying he is Mays because Mays did it every day for a few decades but when Buxton has stretches like he did a week ago I see Mays.
  5. Lot’s of good work and thoughts in this thread. Thanks everyone.
  6. @bean5302As always really good work on the analysis. Teams need a solid foundation of players that have contracts prior to becoming free agents. Identifying, acquiring and developing that foundation is critical. It doesn’t matter how they were acquired whether it be the draft, international signing, waiver claim, trade, independent leagues, Japan, Korea or any other avenue. Three fifth of the rotation is pitchers they acquired while still under team control. Two they will have the entirety of team control. They will have one of the league’s best closers for all of his team control. I would think that identifying inexpensive free agents is also critical. This year the Twins added Bader, France and Coulombe for 8.75 million dollars. They have contributed. They have contributed 2.3 fWAR (2.8 bWAR) at the quarter pole. Identifying those inexpensive pieces was critical. The Orioles appear to have failed in identifying those pieces and it is significantly impacted their record thus far. I don’t know how this compares to other teams but I would think that Falvey has been at least above the median in identifying, acquiring and developing a foundation of players.
  7. Good point. Not a single reliever has been placed on the IL since the start of the season. I should have added that. How many teams can make that claim? I am certain that as soon as someone is injured there will be debate about whether it falls on the Twins use of the bullpen.
  8. If the Twins believe that McCusker is ready there is definitely a place for him. Castro can play 2B and Clemens or Bride can be moved to clear a spot for him. Those two combined for 4 starts since the return of Lewis and Castro. Those starts could have been given to McCusker. I don’t know if McCusker’s strikeout and walk rates are going to work at the major league level. I am curious to find out though. You can be successful in the majors combining a low average with a high ISO. Most of those players also combine a high strike out rate with a high walk rate. McCusker doesn’t have that high walk rate. Can he match Seiya Suzuki or would he match Jhonkensy Noel?
  9. At the quarter pole the Minnesota Twins bullpen has 2.3 WAR which is first in the major leagues. That isn’t the same as saying they have had the best bullpen. I don’t think WAR is a great measure for a bullpen but is way better to be first in WAR than last. The Twins bullpen ranks 13th in innings pitched and in a tie for 4th through 8th in games pitched. The teams ahead of the them in games pitched include the first place Dodgers and the Cubs. The Guardians and Mariners also have pitched 140 games with a few more innings from their bullpen. The Dodgers use of the bullpen both last year and this year is very extreme. The Dodgers bullpen has thrown 28.2 innings more than the Twins excluding opener starts. Including those it would be 34.2 more innings for the Dodgers. Individually Louis Varland leads the majors in appearances with 22. Jax and Duran have 20 appearances. The Dodgers also have three pitchers with 20 or more games. The Dodgers top 6 have 116 appearances. The Twins top 6 have 110 appearances. This includes opener starts. The Twins don’t have anyone near the leaders for innings pitched individually. Duran and Varland at have 19.1. They appear to always have an 8th man in the bullpen that they don’t use at times for days. They eventually get used for length to save the rest of the arms and then are DFA’d or optioned. We have seen Dobnak, McCaughan, Blewett and Funderburk have been in that role. Alcala moved into that role when Stewart returned. Jax and Sands have both been in that 8th man spot in previous seasons and performed their way out of it.
  10. Loved the game. Brooks Lee came up big. Two hits for Lewis. Clemens with a scorching double. Larnach and Bader with multiple hits. Four innings and one earned run by the bullpen and that run came on a double play grounder that deflected off Jax. Keirsey with the big hit. So much to discuss about the players that actually played in the game.
  11. It isn’t a report. It isn’t from someone reporting news. It is someone’s own idea of what trade should be made.
  12. That Vazquez play was outstanding. The ninth inning double play was so big too. We have learned this year that a pitcher’s throw to a base isn’t a certainty. That throw was spot on for the double play.
  13. Arguably yes. Yesterday his game score was 74. His best game score as a Twin is 75 in a game last year against the White Sox with 7 shut out innings. Given the quality of competition I would have to give the nod to last night’s game. He has another 74 in an 8 inning start against Cleveland last year. It might take precedence given the importance of the game but Duran blew the save in the 9th. He also has a 73 against Boston as a Twin. Probably not his best start ever though. He had three starts with game scores in the 80s in his rookie season.
  14. I disagree that it is a rumor. A rumor needs to be based on some information about talks between the teams. It appears simply to be an idea of someone on the outside and not someone reporting on baseball.
  15. I would be getting someone ready and send out Paddack.
  16. Anyone saying what they would do? I am sending out Paddack in the 8th with Stewart warming up ready to come in. Coloumbe for the top of the order in the 9th. Score some runs and Paddack gets more leash.
  17. McCusker has no innings of first base. He didn’t play there in summer ball. He didn’t play there in college. He didn’t play there in independent ball. He didn’t play there in the majors. It doesn’t seem possible that at all those levels of playing corner outfield it never occurred to anyone to look at him at first base. It is likely they all did. It is also likely that he doesn’t have the skill set to play a passable first base. It takes good feet and good hands. There seems to be to be an assumption anyone can play first base. I believe that is true of catchers and infielders who need those hands and feet. If I see a right handed throwing player that has been strictly a corner outfielder with no innings at first base or anywhere in the infield I would assume that he had shots in practice and it didn’t work. They gave a Gasper a shot at catching a knuckleballer yesterday. He looked good from my view on MILB TV. He might be the Twins best option if a catcher goes down and it might be his best shot at a career in the majors. Glad they are giving him time behind the plate. Has anyone noticed the Priellipp’s last two starts have come 6 days apart instead of the 7 that he started the year with? Last year his 9 appearances were spaced 7 days apart also. Small steps.
  18. I have shared a few threads the quote from the Padres manager about not having an all right or all left line up to let the pitcher get in a rhythm. I know this is anecdotal but on Tuesday the left handed starter was in a nice rhythm to start the game with 7 outs in 7 batters. Larnach was the first lefty he faced. Larnach singled. The 5 right handed batters after Larnach did some significant damage. The only one that didn’t get on base was France who hit the ball to the top of the wall 410 feet with an exit velocity of 105.3. I have no idea if Larnach threw him off rhythm in this case. I do think it can happen though. I think there is value in having a few left handed bats in that lineup against a lefty even if their splits suggest otherwise.
  19. I really wanted SWR to get through that inning. The big mistake was that meatball to Kjerstad. Provus was in the middle of saying that Kjerstad swings at the first pitch at a very high rate as the pitch arrived at the plate. You can’t give him a pitch in the middle of the plate on the first pitch. You probably shouldn’t throw a strike on that pitch. That could not possibly have been the game plan for a hitter that swings so often and rarely walks. If he can execute the gameplan he probably gets Kjerstad out and maybe gets a chance in the 6th. Fun game to watch. Good defense. Big hits. Shut down bullpen.
  20. I was thinking yesterday how much hope we have that things will be different with new owners. The new Oriole ownership was approved last March 27 so this was their first off season. They signed one free agent to a multiyear deal in Tyler O’Neill for 3/49. I think Twin fans would see that as pretty underwhelming in the first off season of a new ownership. The new owners likely were involved in the Burnes deal last winter that happened just after news of the proposed deal. That really wasn’t a burden on the budget though. The cost to the Orioles was prospects not dollars. They didn’t follow up that trade by securing Burnes with a big contract extension. The Orioles did add to payroll with several moderate one year deal for Morton, Sugano, Kittredge, Sanchez and Laureano but we have experienced several of those kind of one year deals for aging veterans with our current ownership.
  21. I am not sure rumor is the correct term for the Ryan to the Orioles. It was Bowden writing about 5 trades he would like to see and not based on any information about Ryan involved in any trade talk. I am not sure of the Lopez to Dodgers source.
  22. I really don’t see it. He has no home runs and an ISO of .105. If anything I think he was better at the plate last year. He struck out less and had more power in a park that depresses power numbers. I don’t think he has done enough to merit a call up to AA this year. His OBP is fueled by a bunch of singles thanks to a .500 BABIP and 6 HBPs.
  23. @bean5302 Do you think Bride is a better fit on the bench over Clemens? Would you be more optimistic about Bride? Positionally Bride, Clemens, Gasper and Julien have so much overlap and maybe only one is needed. Short of Wallner or Keaschall returning is there a better option for the bench than keeping two of those four?
  24. I would send Julien down. He is so limited on how he can help the team from the bench. He wouldn’t be useful as a defensive sub or pinch runner. A pinch hitter often comes up where a ball in play is needed. That isn’t his skill with the bat. I think Gasper is similar but less upside with the bat. I guess he helps as a third catcher but so does Bride. Keirsey is a much better fit on the bench. He also has never showed in the minors a likelihood of being an average major league bat. His best wRC+ seasons in the minors of 119 and 116 are suggestive of a mediocre major league hitter and AAAA player that helps a roster with the other parts of their game.
  25. Agree on McCusker. As for bullpen use I think there are several teams with similar or more extreme use of the pen this year. The Twins are 7th in bullpen games and 15th in bullpen innings. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball and go to their bullpen more than any other team. Other winning teams also make frequent use of their bullpen. Teams can win going to their bullpen frequently. They can’t win when they score two or fewer runs in nearly half their games. They need more offense and McCusker might be the best hope right now.
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