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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    This is my recall of the Sunday morning radio show with Jeremy Zoll. I don’t think the purpose was to develop a pitcher for that role in the majors. I think the purpose is to have a role in the minors structured to get more innings as well as having routine time in between outings to work. The routine of a reliever does not allow that routine. My takeaway… I don’t think they have developed anyone who was strictly a reliever in the minors to a successful major league reliever. Jovani Moran is the closest but he was signed in the prior administration. Maybe they think giving 10 or so more pitchers in the organization a regular routine that allows work in between adds to the chances someone will make it through. This administration is going to develop pitchers for the bullpen from a starter’s role in the minors. I might argue with that but I don’t think they are preparing pitchers for a new role in the majors. I do see Adams and Ohl in that bullpen day role now so I could be wrong. I am hoping it is a function of three starters on IL and one starter traded.
  2. jorgenswest
    Aren’t you the same guy who has wisely preached patience on Wallner who is 27. Outman’s career wRC+ doesn’t match Wallner’s but Outman needs to be compared to center fielders. Outman has over 1500 career major league innings in CF with an OOA of 11. That is 2023 Michael Taylor level. Since 2023 they have used Margot, Martin and Keirsey as the back up center fielder. Outman has a career wRC+ of 103. I am going to at least have enough patience with him until the roster decision next spring. Are there clearly better and reliable solutions for Buxton’s back up on the roster? Can they acquire a good back up option that meets their budget? I also assume that Out,an is in AAA because the Twins are trying to change something about his swing or approach to try to get him to closer to where was in 2023. I think the decision to put Abel, Bradley and Outman is about them working on their craft before joining the major league club.
  3. jorgenswest
    I am certain the major league slash stats for Outman the last two years as well as those for Gasper and Roden are small samples and are not useful for projecting forward. If they matched those sample with mediocre play in AAA the last few years that would be telling. I think the major league samples are further weakened by the sporadic play they have received while on the major league roster. I don’t know if any can follow through on the promise they have shown in AAA but none have been given any kind of real chance this year if you are basing an assessment by looking at a stat line. Outman has a high strikeout rate that is real. He showed it in the minors. He showed it in his rookie season where he finished third in ROY. It is hard to be successful in the majors with a high K rate in the minors. That K rate can lead to prolonged slumps. Wallner faces a similar challenge. Had he been on the Dodgers he probably wouldn’t have made it through his month of June. The Dodgers can afford to be less patient. In spite of awful stat lines the last two years Outman still has a career OPS+ of 100. He is a good outfielder at all three positions. I wouldn’t let him go before they need to cut the roster to 26 next spring. I don’t think it is wise to make a definitive statement about any of the three based on their major league time the last two seasons.
  4. jorgenswest
    There are a lot of talented arms. I don’t think I would hold back one of the starters in AAA for depth. Take the best 13 arms. If a pitcher gets injured build up an arm through a few bullpen games. I do think Prielipp has a chance to win a spot. More likely give him the routine of a starter in AAA to begin next year. That is what the Rangers did with Ragans following his second TJ and very few innings in his previous four. He built up a year and a half before they brought him to the majors. It may be in the bullpen when Prielipp gets to the majors. The routine of a starter role in the minors is so much more conducive to development. Larnach is going to have to put up an OPS over 800 these last two months in order to be tendered. That might make it his best two month stretch of his career. Even if he is tendered the Twins may trade him for a return similar to what they received for Urshela. The Twins tendered Farmer after 2023 and weren’t able to move him. Tendering Larnach may be more risk than they are willing to take given the minimal return. Outman has crushed the ball in AAA for three years. Roden has a good track record in the minors Gasper does too. Outman’s last two poor seasons as well as the poor seasons of Gasper and Roden thus far this year are very small samples. I don’t think you can look at their 44, 61 or 31 PAs this year and be definitive that they will not hit in the future. I would bring all three to spring training. If they have new owners who are willing to add to the budget I hope they spend it on one bat and then one arm rather than spread it over several team friendly one year deals. Get the best player or two they can afford and then look for minor league free agents like Brock Stewart and Willi Castro. Maybe someone like Luis Campusano. What will it take to buy low on Campusano from the Padres? Has he fallen out of favor there? He will be out of options.
  5. jorgenswest
    The best route to a major league pitcher whether starter or reliever is the structured routine of a starter in the minors. The Twins have added the structured routine of a 3-4 inning/3 days rest pitcher this year in the minors. Pitchers don’t need the routine of a reliever to pitch in relief in the majors. In the case of Prielipp the priority has always been a healthy year. He has progressed from 6 days rest between outings to 5 days rest. It closely follows the Cole Ragans model. I believe Prielipp innings total have matched or surpassed his previous 5 seasons combined. Ragans made his major league debut middle of the next season. I expect we will see Prielipp by the second half next year if he can manage to stay healthy. I wouldn’t be surprised that it will be as a reliever though I think he will have the routine of a starter as he begins 2026 in AAA. In the case of Bradley and Abel, on Sunday Jeremy Zoll talked about the work they are doing with them in AAA. Bradley already had started that work with the Rays. Abel has yet to make the most of his arm talent in the minors. The minor league schedule with less travel and the routine of a starter makes it much easier to do that work between starts. I do trust the their process of developing pitchers.
  6. jorgenswest
    Depending on the arb progression for his salary Larnach may not be tendered. He may not have excess value beyond his arb2 salary. It would be in his best interest to put up an OPS north of 800 these last two months. The Twins have several pre-arb options for the outfield.
  7. jorgenswest
    He was throwing from flat ground on July 25 which is just short of 8 weeks from June 3. I think that is pretty close to typical for the injury.
  8. jorgenswest
    I appreciate all of these players. They have battled in every game since the deadline. I appreciate the fight from the players like Fitzgerald, Gasper, McCusker, Clemens, Kriske and Hatch as they battled through years of the minor leagues or independent leagues for this opportunity. I appreciate Keaschall and Martin’s all out style of play. I appreciate the pitchers that stepped to fill a decimated bullpen. I appreciate the leadership I see from the core that remained after seeing 40% of the roster moved at the deadline. I appreciate Baldelli’s fight also. I don’t need to see wins. I need to see players and managers compete for every game.
  9. jorgenswest
    I hated the Stewart trade but I have to weigh in on Outman here. Outman has crushed AAA pitching over the large sample of the last three years with an OPS of .952. He is a far more accomplished hitter at this point in his career than Gonzalez. He is also 28 and hasn’t had major league success since 2023. Gonzalez has all the upside but it is within reason that pitching to him last night gave them a better chance of winning.
  10. jorgenswest
    These players are fighting and this game was a pleasure to watch. Wallner and Clemens crushing the ball was a highlight. Clemens has a 117 wRC+ as a Twin. That is going to work with his positional flexibility. Wallner is hitting like the player we expected. Those home runs were nice but the play of the day for me was Keaschall’s busting it to second base on the ball hit to Witt. If the plan was to tank no one told the players.
  11. jorgenswest
    Let’s fill as many spots with pitchers that might be helpful next year. That is more important than how they are used. Let’s make sure they are seeing major league batters. If the best way to do that is one of these plans then I am in. If it is a traditional model I am in. It isn’t going to keep Taj Bradley from starting next year if he is coming out of the pen the remainder of this year. It might even be nice to see how he throws when he knows he won’t see the line up more than once. Let’s prioritize arms in the minors that they know will be on the 40 next year over pitchers currently in the pen over the age of 30.
  12. jorgenswest
    Still would prefer him to Outman.
  13. jorgenswest
    I fear that it won’t be a try out if they bring in a vet. I think it will be that vet’s position regardless of how they perform. With Lee, Eeles or Culpepper I am more confident they would use an option and go to one of the other three. They need to bet on the upside of young players next year and risk the downside.
  14. jorgenswest
    Shortstops are expensive. There are few free agent options. It might take a Christian Vazquez type multiyear contract to land Isiah Kiner-Falefa. I would prefer Lee at SS to begin the 2026 season holding the space for Culpepper. I wish the return for Brock Stewart had been Noah Miller. He would have been a much better fit. They really need a defense first glove behind Lee.
  15. jorgenswest
    I think he wouldn’t go out of his way to praise. I certainly value it more than my eyes watching. There is so much that goes on with the catcher position that really isn’t measured well. I am reminded that several organizations didn’t think Brian Harper was a catcher. I am also aware that the coming ABS system is going to reprioritize skills needed from a catcher. I would have used these two months to give Gasper time behind the plate over Vazquez. They could have given him 15-20 starts in the last 56 games after the deadline. The chance of success is low but the reward of finding an inexpensive number 2 catcher going into the offseason would be worth that risk. I would risk those starts with the small hope of avoiding another Vazquez like commitment.
  16. jorgenswest
    Hopeful on Gonzalez. Can’t agree about Topa. He has allowed the highest percent of inherited runners to score. His WPA as a Twin is -1.3. He has pitched best in low leverage. They needed a piece that could put out a fire and handle higher leverage. So far he hasn’t been that piece. I think they should look elsewhere next year. That low leverage mid game role should go to a younger pitcher they are developing.
  17. jorgenswest
    No one said Pat Murphy either.
  18. jorgenswest
    Seems like Jax, Varland and Duran were pretty effective in their first full year as a reliever. I need to have hope that the Twins bullpen can turn it around quick. Part of that hope is that some of their excess in starters will be a foundation for a good bullpen 2026. I also don’t think they need to prepare to be relievers in the minors so keeping them starting was a good plan. In Duran’s case he never had a year where he was a failed starter. I think they maximized his use as a reliever. I think the same of Jax. He had one partial season as a major league starter and moved to relief. I think they should have moved Varland to start last year and lost a year. There was reporting that Varland wasn’t ready to give up starting that might have had an impact. I think the bigger impact was the foolish trade for DeSclafani. His unsurprising injury forced them to turn to Varland. I survive on hope and have to hope it isn’t going to take 2-3 years.
  19. jorgenswest
    I do have a question. I do agree that their ERA is more volatile than a qualified hitters OPS or qualified starter’s ERA. Doesn’t samples size play a big factor here? I am not ready to accept that their talent level is more volatile. I am not even sure how to compare. Do relievers have shorter careers? Maybe. How do you compare? If you are a starting position player is that equivalent to a top three reliever on a team? How many starting second basemen in 2021 are still starters at 2B in 2025? How does that compare to relievers? I don’t know. I am ready to accept that talented relievers are more volatile. In Varland’s case he has one partial season of success as a reliever in a sample size of batters faced that is not near stabilized. There is a good chance he is not going to replicate his performance through 49 innings this season in the next 49. His home run rate was well below his previous career rate as well as his rate in AAA. His BABIP was below his career MLB rate and AAA rate also. Both of those numbers need a pretty large samples and 197 batters faced isn’t close. His change to relief helps as there are starts mixed i. those other years but his strike out rates and walk rates aren’t that different from his career rate where he also had starts mixed in. In Duran’s case he does have a multiple season record of success. I would expect he would remain successful. Jax does also but he has an age issue where players of all positions may begin to decline. Polanco was about the same age as Jax when traded. I thought he had a good chance to be headed towards decline. I think the same about Jax. Hendricks and Pressly were pretty solid through 33 though so the Rays could get two good years. They will be his more expensive arb2/3 seasons. The reliever math is different. It takes multiple seasons to gain enough sample for the stats to be representative of a reliever’s skill level. The Twins should not need stats to assess Varland. Their eyes are a more reliable judge at this sample. If they believe his skill is among the top relievers in baseball they should not have made that trade. That skill should remain. If they believe that the very low home run rate and lower BABIP are not sustainable they were absolutely correct to sell high.
  20. jorgenswest
    Bradley has a reasonable chance to be the most productive player they acquire in the deal. It could be boom or bust but I see a path where he is their number 3 starter next year or he is matching the performance of Jax from the bullpen.
  21. jorgenswest
    I hope they don’t go this direction. They need to build a bullpen for next year. That can be done. They need to get a middle of the line up bat. That can be done. They need to make the most of the next two years with Ryan and Lopez. I know I have a bias here. I need them to fight for 2026. Reinvest.
  22. jorgenswest
    The Correa trade is either an A or F. If they spend the savings to bring in a player from outside the organization it will be an A. If they pocket the savings it is an F.
  23. jorgenswest
    Is it possible the Correa’s presence and influence was so strong that when he wasn’t playing well he pulled others with him?
  24. jorgenswest
    The first 40 man hurdle is the rule 5 draft. At that point they could have one catcher on the roster. That 40 man will be pretty out of balance. There could be far too many outfielders and not enough pitchers and catchers relative to how it might look entering spring training. We added Outman, Roden and possibly Mendez to a group that includes Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, Keirsey, Rodriguez, Martin and McCusker. Add to that possibly Fedko, Rosario and Gonzalez. They won’t have 13 outfielders on the 40 man roster entering spring. Outman and Roden should be considered for a DFA. Mendez may be left unprotected for the rule 5. Even if that happens ten is still too many and I hope Walker pushes somebody else off next spring.
  25. jorgenswest
    Rojas is a good get. A lefty that is in AAA at 22 with success at a young age. He alone would be worth Varland who at 27 is having a break out season as a reliever. Varland has cut home runs significantly this year. The home run rates need a pretty large sample size. The extraordinarily low home run rates are the reason his xFIP and xERA are both much higher than his actual. Is the 2.02 ERA Varland that the Twins sent to the Blue Jays his real skill or is it random variation due to the small sample of any reliever? Reliever skill isn’t anymore volatile than players at other positions but the numbers make it look that way since their season sample is so small. Topa’s ERA looked like his skill had really improved in his one break out season. It didn’t. His xFIP is actually slightly better than his 2023 season. That ErA was a mirage due to the sample size of a reliever. Time will tell about Varland. As for Roden I think the Blue Jays deadline roster crunch made him soon to be DFA’d and a throw in. The Twins may DFA him this winter if he doesn’t turn it around. It is still a reasonable trade even if Roden is let go. It is hard to get a young and successful lefty starter this close to the majors.
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