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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The major league stabilization point for HR rate is 1320 batters faced. It will be much larger when trying to use it to compare players in the the very different AAA venues and leagues. 100 innings isn’t close. Minor league stats for relievers just aren’t useful in projecting major league success.
  2. jorgenswest
    Wouldn’t the more relevant comparison be within AL? My guess is that there are more NL teams in the top half of those categories without pitching to the DH. If the Twins are generally in the top half of the AL that is better than mediocre to me.
  3. jorgenswest
    I am glad the Twins aren’t making decisions in those samples. Both the small sample size of any reliever and the disparity of leagues and parks isn’t useful. Also useless but point of fact, since there are more base runners in the PCL the denominator PA for K% will be larger and the resulting K rate will be lower.
  4. jorgenswest
    Seems like it would have helpful to include the context that Morin has pitched in the PCL.
  5. jorgenswest
    Did they fill the open spot?
  6. jorgenswest
    I think they would lose their third highest pick. Is that their second round pick overall number 54? Just looked up the history of pick 54 Top 5 below Scott Sanderson Randy Wolf Brett Tomko Tommy Hunter Steve Ontiveros There were no significant pick 54s but I think it is about a 2% chance you land on a truly great player in that range. I will take the greater certainty of Kimbrel for a few years without a second thought.
  7. jorgenswest
    Wow! Best I have seen from Odorizzi and best I have seen from Garver.
  8. jorgenswest
    I would have someone warming up
  9. jorgenswest
    Of course not, line drive percentage is useless for an indicator of performance. There are better indicators that need a small sample like exit velocity.
  10. jorgenswest
    https://www.freezestats.com/2019/04/looking-at-sample-sizes-for-fantasy-baseball/ https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/17659/baseball-therapy-its-a-small-sample-size-after-all/
  11. jorgenswest
    Line drive rate stabilizes at 600 balls in play which is about 218 games started.
  12. jorgenswest
    Marwin hasn’t changed from the player I expected which is the 2018 Marwin. The production he can control which is taking good at bats and making good contact hasn’t changed. He should be getting 3 starts a week when everyone is heathy and regular play when someone is out. With the exception of very good players regular play shouldn’t be every day play. . I would play him less not based on his production (he is making good contact and taking good at bats) but because he profiles as an average player and is a guy you take out to keep the players on your bench sharp.
  13. jorgenswest
    Those numbers don’t favor Astudillo with the exception that he has a slightly higher barrels at 6.1 over 5.8. I think it is helpful in combining Marwin with his previous numbers to see if there has been a change from the guy we might have expected. I don’t see it. He is hitting the ball hard and taking good at bats. His BABIP is .192. I don’t know if it is helpful to compare Marwin against Willians with that data. They have such different profiles. Willians can be successful with the high volume of weaker contact he sprays all over the field.
  14. jorgenswest
    I don’t know how to project Marwin going forward this week. I know I wouldn’t want my manager to make decisions on slash stats in this sample. Reasons they might not be concerned from statcast. He has had the best exit velocity of his career. He has the best hard hit percentage of his career. He barrels at 5.8% just above his career of 5.7%. He is seeing more pitches per at bat than previous seasons. The only change in the other direction is launch angle where his 7.4 is lower than his career 9.1. It is early but his strike out and walk rates are at career norms. His swing and miss rate is at his career norm, It doesn’t seem like anything in his batted ball profile should be driving a very low BABIP of .192. Intellectually I don’t want my manager looking at a month of slash stats and using that data to determine a line up. By themselves they are not indicative of how a player will perform today. As a fan it is hard to ignore the OPS under .500 though.
  15. jorgenswest
    A catchers defense can have a huge impact. They are involved with calling and receiving every pitch. A difference in 40 points of on base percentage is about 1 extra time on base for a full week of play. There are so many opportunities for a good defensive catcher to make up for that deficit and much more in a week of play.
  16. jorgenswest
    I think Astudillo is better at any position in the field than Austin. He also has much more recent experience having played OF in the winter league. Earlier this week we went to a three man bench. I don’t see how Austin could have been part of that mix.
  17. jorgenswest
    He is primarily an outfielder in winter ball with 34 starts (1B-18, 3B-5, C-4). Seems reasonable that the best overall defensive alignment is with Marwin at 3B and Willians in the outfield.
  18. jorgenswest
    Really impressed with Perez. He had some tough luck of the bobbled slow roller to third, the missed pop up and missed call by umpire and got out of it without hard contact or runs scored.
  19. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it was true last year that most of his starts were against lefties. In fact his ratio of left to right was reasonably normal last year. He did better against right handed pitching. The Twins did platoon him for much of last year. He caught Odorizzi and Lynn with Wilson catching Gibson and Berrios. The platoon wasn’t based on the opposing pitcher.
  20. jorgenswest
    The Twins need Castro. He three catchers are all valuable and have a role on this team.
  21. jorgenswest
    The price for Pazos was Hunter Stovall. Not a solid prospect but had a nice debut last year in rookie ball.
  22. jorgenswest
    I find myself almost always agreeing with chief with the exception of the times I have been wrong. If last night didn’t close the door on this debate I don’t think any more pages will change minds. -Pressly was under team control for this year. -Pressly would be the best reliever on the roster this year. -The Twins really need good relievers. -No one sees the return as something other than good prospects. Neither is special. Every organization has guys like this in their top 10 or 20. They had a bird in hand and traded it for two in the bush. They should have kept the bird in hand.
  23. jorgenswest
    At the start of the season it wasn’t obvious to me that they would keep 3 catchers over Cave.
  24. jorgenswest
    Do we agree that we can’t use the last few days of stats available in Fangraphs to determine who is hitting? If not, that is where we disagree.
  25. jorgenswest
    How should the Twins decide a player is struggling and most importantly that they will continue to struggle? Your response didn’t make it clearer, but maybe that is because it would be impossible for me watching from afar to make that determination. I don’t think I can turn to fangraphs or baseball reference to make that determination in the short term. I certainly don’t want the Twins to make a decision about the next game based on the previous few games.
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