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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I think the best hope for this year is a bullpen piece in September. If the Twins are in the hunt he could be helpful.
  2. jorgenswest
    Lewis had an opportunity to show it in summer 2020. We didn’t get to see it but the Twins saw him every day. I trust he should be in AAA. I don’t need to see it for myself.
  3. jorgenswest
    We set our inspiration bar in different places. I think this will be among the more interesting AAA teams and watching a game in St. Paul should be a good ticket this summer.
  4. jorgenswest
    Balazovic and Sands are pretty young and they do have their share of younger pitching on the major league roster in Duran, Winder and Ryan.
  5. jorgenswest
    Last year all of the replacement options were injured so there was nothing at the other end of the leash. Assuming the options are healthy and finding success I don’t think the stay will be long. In 2012 Jason Marquis saw 160 batters over 7 starts before they let him go. While small sample wise it would be the length of my leash. Marquis went signed with San Diego and was reasonably successful posting a 4.04 ERA over 15 starts and then gave them another 20 starts the next year with a 4.05 ERA. They could have used that performance but I still think the made the right decision to give that short leash.
  6. jorgenswest
    How critical is a third catcher? The Braves used 7 catchers last year. Four of them were not in the organization when the season started. Garrett Stubbs and his career 485 OPS was the Astros third catcher. He was on the roster 5 times last year totaling about 10 weeks. Somehow both teams were pretty successful without a reliable third catcher.
  7. jorgenswest
    There was a rule last year where players could only be called up immediately from AAA due to COVID protocals. There is a report of Celestino added to St. Paul in the window between his last Wichita game and major league debut. He never played for St. Paul but was likely there long enough to pass through protocol (negative test, quarantine?) before making his debut. I have not seen where those protocols are continuing this year so I would think a player could immediately move from any level to majors the same day. As for the Twins front office, I am not concerned about them being hesitant to move a player from AA. The last time this was relevant was 2019 and they moved up Arraez after he had spent just three days in AAA.
  8. jorgenswest
    The Twins certainly don’t have a Reynolds to offer. Larnach is at best a mediocre corner defender and didn’t show readiness last year. The Padres need someone ready today. Kepler has the glove and I am not sure the Twins can replace him with their limited depth in outfielders that can defend. They would really need to believe in Celestino to trade Kepler for Paddack. I doubt the Padres see Arraez as an outfield option.
  9. jorgenswest
    Last year the Rays and Giants were two teams that found success while increasing the percent of at bats when their batters had a platoon advantage. You don’t see it in baseball very often any more because the roster spot for the short side platoon hitter has been lost to larger pitching staffs. Darin Ruf(34) and Austin Slater(28) are two right handed bats on their bench that produced an 1007 and 894 OPS against left handed pitching. They still see a lot of right handed pitching. Shorter starts ensure that in this baseball era but they still saw a much greater than expected ratio of at bats against lefties. The Giants bench allowed the the. options to tweak the platoon advantage in those high leverage situations. The Rays roster construction allowed them to see the platoon advantage in 62.1% of their at bats (3rd in baseball). The league median was 53.2%. They were second in runs scored. Would it benefit the Twins to devote of roster spot to a platoon player? Do they have in Garlick someone that can give them the advantage that the Giants found in Ruf and Slater?
  10. jorgenswest
    Woods-Richardson probably wins this deal though Oakland would have scouted this spring and really liked these two. They may have seen progress not reflected in rankings based on last year.
  11. jorgenswest
    Smeltzer also has had a full spring training and that may make a difference early in the season.
  12. jorgenswest
    For some reason Rooker has not hit left handed pitching in the minors. The other side of the coin is that he has hit right handed pitching well. Very few batters have maintained a reverse platoon split through there career. If Rooker adjust towards a more neutral split and maintains his hitting against right handed pitching he has a chance at a Josh Willingham type career.
  13. jorgenswest
    This is often true for a season because of the sample size. It could be a four year temporary illusion or it could be that he sees right handed pitchers better. His string of OPS against mostly minor league left handed pitchers doesn’t suggest to me he would be a good platoon option. I would have more confidence in Garlick.
  14. jorgenswest
    Rooker bats right handed but he hasn’t really hit left handed pitching very well. He has reverse splits. Combining his majors and minors his OPS against left handed pitching the last three years are 714, 762 and 738. The Twins don’t need a right handed bat. They need a hitter that can hit lefties. Rooker does not check that box.
  15. jorgenswest
    Look at the performances of Wood, DeSclafani, Gausman and even Sanchez the year or two before the Giants signed them. They were all pitchers who had previous success as a starter but recent struggles and some injuries. I don’t think it was good luck on the Giants part. Their staff deserves the credit for finding that talent again and Minnesota must do the same with Archer and Bundy. It won’t be bad luck either if the Twins continue to fail to identify inexpensive pitching help.
  16. jorgenswest
    When the Twins signed Rich Hill I felt he would either pitch well enough or be injured. I think I feel the same way about Archer.
  17. jorgenswest
    Frankie Montas is one. Kenny Rogers had it in 2001 and was 75-39 in the 5 years following (2003 with the Twins). There are other success stories. That is not to argue that we should expect success. Several like Harvey and Hughes have not returned. My source is the Athletic.
  18. jorgenswest
    I wondered how many AAA starts young pitchers from the Indians or Rays see before their debut. Shane Bieber: 8 AAA starts Cal Quantrill: 13 AAA starts with SD prior to trade Zach Plesac: 4 AAA starts Aaron Civale: 8 AAA starts Tristan McKenzie: 0 AAA starts. Was sent down for 5 AAA starts in second season and returned with success. Shane McClanahan: 0 AAA starts Luis Patino: 0 AAA starts. Was sent down for 7 starts and returned with success. Acquired in trade from San Diego I would go with Winder with Balazovic and Duran not far behind.
  19. jorgenswest
    He did lead all AA batters in OBP last year at .414.
  20. jorgenswest
    I think it is a better plan than going with a Happ, Shoemaker, Bailey or even a Hill. If you sign one of those pitchers you are hoping to squeeze out one more year of health and back end rotation performance. If you pay one of those guys enough money is invested that you keep starting them in spite of poor results. Yes. Go with three inexperienced young starters. Be ready to flip them with some of the other near ready young starters in the minors. I would go with their upside.
  21. jorgenswest
    I am encouraged that Boras thought to reach out to the Twins. It could be a sign that the Twins have been competitive in the market. Does he reach out if the Twins haven’t been making competitive offers to those they lost out on?
  22. jorgenswest
    I suspect they are seeking a top 50 pitching prospect to headline a Montas deal. The Twins aren’t a good match here. They may not find that match and come back to the Twins but I would want prime pitching prospects for Montas.
  23. jorgenswest
    If there is a role where he can regularly get major league hitters out we need him in that role.
  24. jorgenswest
    Rortvedt was likely not ready to hit well enough this year if ever. If an automated strike zone issued next year does that change the value of a defense only catcher?
  25. jorgenswest
    If I am the A’s I want the headliner of a Montas deal to be a pitcher. The Twins don’t have that prospect. it may be why we haven’t seen a deal yet. It could be the A’s won’t get a top 50 pitching prospect and will settle for Martin as the headliner.
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