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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I look at Clemens statcast numbers and I see hope from his exit velocity and launch angle. I also have hope that given his salary they will not be waiting until August to go another direction if this year’s wOBA doesn’t approach last year’s xWOBA. If it does then they have a major league player at 1B. if it doesn’t then they options they have other options which could include Roden, Julien, Mendez, Sabato and even Keaschall. If they don’t spend resources on a free agent 1B when Culpepper shows he is ready he can take the spot of anyone in the infield who is not performing. He will be the shortstop and Keaschall can move to 1B and Lee can move to 2B or 3B. My first choice would have been acquire someone at Naylor’s level or above. Short of that I would have gone with the status quo over another one year stop gap at 1B.
  2. jorgenswest
    I do appreciate you Mike. You nailed it. I will think they can compete until they don’t. Adding Rutschman would help. Fighting every day to compete is a big part of who I am. I just don’t get how it isn’t part of the Pohlad’s nature. Maybe I can sell it this way. Rutschman could easily be a buy low. If he hits like he did his first two years his trade value will go up. If he isn’t a buy low then I am with you and the Twins should not trade assets.
  3. jorgenswest
    I dint think he is declining in skill. His contact numbers are all in line with his rookie season, he had the best exit average exit velocity last year. He also had a low BABIP relative to his career.
  4. jorgenswest
    They absolutely should try to get Rutschman. That would show commitment from ownership. Commitment means keeping Ryan also. They do have the prospect deal to make a competitive offer for Rutschman. I know the Orioles are looking for starting pitching but they are going to need to trade prospects to get it. Trading Rutschman for prospects will enhance their prospect pool.
  5. jorgenswest
    I think xwOBA is helpful in putting a players slash stats into context. It is much more stable than slash stats and more predictive of future slash stats. The components of xwOBA are exit velocity, launch angle and sprint speed. I appreciate xwOBA because it is elements under a player control including accounting for speed. In 2024 Carlos Correa and Matt Wallner had wOBAs that were 30 and 27 points greater than their xwOBA. Regression might be expected. It can go the other way also. In 2022 Polanco’s xwOBA was 25 points above his wOBA. In 2023 when the wOBA and xwOBA were more in balance is OPS was 30 points higher. Twins last year that with wOBAs above their xwOBA indicating if the skill is the same they are candidates for the regression. There is only one current Twin with significant plate appearances in this group. Keaschall was a +34 (363 vs 329). His slash stats were much better than his exit velocity, launch angle and speed suggested they should be. Pereda’s sample was small but the difference was very extreme. His exit velocity, launch angle and speed suggest that he isn’t a very good hitter. His wOBA was 91 points better than his xwOBA. I would absolutely trust that is true ability is much closer to his xwOBA than his wOBA. There are Twins on the other end of the spectrum that underperformed their contact and speed. If their skill stays the same they are more likely to regress up toward their mean. Eduardo Julien’s xwOBA was 51 points better than his wOBA (337 v 286). In 2023 Julien had nearly the same xwOBA as 2025. His exit velocity, launch angle, barrels, hard hit rate were all pretty close. We probably should expect his 2026 OPS to be close to the middle of those two seasons. Only Buxton and Martin had better xwOBAs than Clemens last year. Clemens’ xwOBA was .342 with the Twins and his wOBA was .302. Most batters with that 40 point gap will have an improved OPS the next year. A .342 wOBA isn’t going to stand out for a 1B and is just below the median of starters. The league wOBA from first basemen was .327. Clemens also played 2B. The league wOBA from second basemen was .299. Last year was Clemens’ first with significant playing time. Did the league figure him out? Maybe. I don’t know if his exit velocity and launch angle changed as the pitchers adjusted but I do see his hard hit rate dropped 6% in the second half. That adjustment concern would be true for any player getting their first significant playing time including Keaschall. One other thing stood out in my look. Austin Martin’s xwOBA was 14 points better than his wOBA (347 vs 333) giving me reason to hope that what we saw last year was real.
  6. jorgenswest
    Burnes had one year of control remaining when traded. Sale was beyond his arbitration years and on an extension he had signed with the White Sox. I think you are right about Crichet.I look to the Guardians and Brewers as organizations we should follow. I think they would be holding onto Ryan at this point. I think their trade window would open at the deadline if they were not competitive and be wide open next winter. This year I wonder if the Tigers will trade Skubal with two years of control left.
  7. jorgenswest
    I just don’t see teams other than the Marlins trading good starting pitchers with two or more years of service time. Why is that?
  8. jorgenswest
    It isn’t clear to me that this trade should be done with two full years of service time. I don’t see the comps in the history and I don’t see the evidence that the return will be significantly more if traded now as opposed to next winter or this year’s deadline if they are sellers. I see the history of teams similar to the Twins trading their starters with 1 or even 1+ years of service time. I see the value. We did it with Berrios.
  9. jorgenswest
    The Berrios trade looks like an absolute win. They traded his 1+ seasons of control for Woods Richardson and Martin. The key was the next winter when they took that Berrios salary slot and replaced it by acquiring Sonny Gray and sending Chase Petty to the Reds. They retained Gray for two years before using the comp pick to draft Kyle DeBarge. Assets acquired Sonny Gray (22 and 23) Woods Richardson (6 years) Martin [6 years) DeBarge (6 years) Assets lost Berrios (2 months of 21 and 22) Petty (6 years) Potential comp pick for Berrios They traded Berrios in a lost season and replaced his contract slot with Gray who was a big part of winning a playoff series for the first time in years. In reality they had two shots of playoff control with Gray where they were only going to have one more with Berrios. That is a big win. It is yet to be seen if Woods Richardson and Martin will end up being more valuable than Petty and really no way the comp pick that never happened for Berrios in comparison to DeBarge. They can do the same with Ryan. Let the season play out. If they are not competitive at the deadline they can move him as they did Berrios. The key will be filling his contract slot by acquiring a player next off season at near that projected salary. It is unlikely that they will win any Ryan deal if the primary motivation is to reduce the payroll.
  10. jorgenswest
    I appreciate this discussion. Some good ideas and hope. I think they need to take the best 12 arms and at this point it looks like many of those 12 were starters last year. Will the pitchers buy in? I think so. Wouldn’t every pitcher listed here prefer a spot on the major league roster in the bullpen as opposed to starting in AAA? Does a move to relief block them from starting in the future? Not at all. In a different discussion I looked at the starters chosen for the last two all star games. Many spent seasons as relievers and some moved roles in season. The Brewers don’t spend resources on their bullpen and trade off relievers when they get expensive. The Mariners have traded a string of 5 closers including Edwin Diaz. Diaz who was traded after two seasons as closer. Sewald didn’t quite make it to two seasons. He was traded at the deadline in a year the Mariners were buyers. These teams have built a bullpen without spending in free agency or trading prospects to acquire those relievers.
  11. jorgenswest
    I wonder if they need to protect Culpepper. He isn’t ready and I don’t think he can be easily stashed in a bullpen. He didn’t get swing and miss in AA and all that contact is going to make it difficult for him to eat innings or come in with runners on base. He has the pitch mix of a starter but really needs more time. I don’t think he can stick with a team through the season. At first I thought maybe he is similar to Tyler Wells but Wells struck out 30.7% in AA while Culpepper struck out 19.5% last year. I wonder if a pitcher has been taken and kept in rule 5 with a similarly low strike out rate relative to the his league. He was 70th of 93 Texas League pitchers in strike out rate among pitchers with more than 50 innings.
  12. jorgenswest
    There just aren’t comps to say that is true. The market has changed since 10 years ago. You might get an extra FV45 or FV 50 but teams haven’t been trading those elite prospects. No one has more FV45 or better players than the Twins. They are more similar in value to players around 200 than players around 10. They need someone that will have a greater chance of making an impact. I am looking at the top 20. A Walker Jenkins before he dropped in status after several injuries. If they don’t get that impact player they may as well wait. There are a whole bunch of FV50s and 45s and then it comes down to identifying the one that is going to performs beyond that level. They identified Joe Ryan and acquired him for a rental DH. They didn’t need to trade two years of a good starting pitcher. If they get that truly get that impact player I am in. If they get someone in the middle quartiles of the 100 with someone in the bottom half they should have waited. That might look like a Franklin Arias and Brandon Clarke. If that is the offer I hold onto Ryan. Arias and Clarke both have an ETA of 2028. So much can happen as they move up in the minors. Arias has elite contact skills but needs to develop power. We have seen that elite contact doesn’t always play well in the majors when major league pitchers turn that into consistent weak contact. Clarke doesn’t have a change up yet. They deserve their high prospect rankings of 25 and 86 but neither should be seen as likely to make an impact. They are too far away and have significant work to do.
  13. jorgenswest
    I concede that his future value is significantly more than double it will be next offseason if he continues at the same performance level, I don’t think they will get anywhere near that extra value. I need to be convinced. I need to see comps. I do believe that that teams were much more willing to trade top flight prospects last decade so there may be some from the teens. I don’t think that is true now. Are there any similar (all star level or something around his 125 ERA+) starting pitchers traded with two full years of service time within the last three or four years? Did the get that greatly increased deal? Last year Luzardo was traded with two years of service. The return was disappointing. stealing Caba is an FV45 and Boyd isn’t listed among the Marlins top 60 prospects. Luzardo is different. He came off a poor year that was mixed with injury. The Marlins motivation to trade him was not the added prospect value for the extra year. They didn’t want to pay his arb2 salary. Crochet’s return was pretty good but he was traded with one year of service time left. Two years ago Burnes was traded with one year left. I don’t see any Ryan level starting pitcher traded with more than one year left. Theee years ago the Marlins were at it again. They traded Pablo Lopez with two years of service time. Though not an all star he was close to Ryan. I am confident that the Marlins regret both the deal for Luzardo and the deal for Lopez. I don’t think there were any four season ago. Going any further back in the COVID season and the last decade. I don’t see any other recent comps of trading a starter of Ryan’s level with at least two full years of service time. I think the argument that the value is greatly reduced is correct in theory but not in practice. That is probably why teams (other than the Marlins) aren’t moving those starters with two years service time anymore. I fear the Twins motivation is the same as the Marlins with Luzardo. They don’t want to pay the arb2 salary and will be willing to accept reduced value to get him off the books.
  14. jorgenswest
    That would show the commitment that the Pohlad’s spoke about when they decided not to sell. He could be a buy low as his slash stats were down last year. His quality of contact numbers were in line with his career numbers as were his strikeout and walk numbers. His BABIP was much lower than career norms. This Twins have the prospect pool to make this deal.
  15. jorgenswest
    Yes. Agree. They traded him in his last year of control. The Twins should follow that Burnes path with Ryan.
  16. jorgenswest
    I don’t think rebuilding is about selling as much as it is about building. In order to rebuild they need the building blocks and you need to use them. They also need a foundation to build upon. After the midseason trades no one has more FV45 or better prospects than the Twins. they have 16. That doesn’t include the recent graduates like Keaschall, Martin, Lee, Bradley, Woods Richardson, Festa, Matthews and even Wallner, Lewis and Julien. That is a full roster of players with upside and prospect pedigree. They are the building blocks. Adding more only diminishes their ability to provide opportunities. The second piece is the opportunity. They need to use these blocks. It may be a roller coaster of their first 1500 plate appearances. They are going to need a manager that will put them in the line up over the decline phase team friendly contract veteran. The third piece that helps is a foundation. They need a veteran presence from which to build. That veteran presence needs to be established starters and not aging veterans on the bench. The Twins have the three elements they need to build. They have the prospect pool. They have the playing time opportunity. They have the foundation in Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and Jeffers.
  17. jorgenswest
    Thanks
  18. jorgenswest
    A batter with a career wRC+ of 131 and 4 years of service time must have a pretty good value that at least approaches a mid 100s FV50 prospect. Emmanuel Rodriguez? They were ranked similarly by Fangraphs. I wonder how BTV values them.
  19. jorgenswest
    I am not sure Culpepper matches the prospect status of players that jump quickly into the majors. Perhaps the rankings are wrong about him but he appears to be a third or fourth tier prospect. Those guys mostly become major leaguers. They hover between 50 and 150 in the rankings. He is not among the top 10 shortstop prospects in the MLB pipeline. Fangraphs has him at an FV 45+ and number 22 at SS. I think he is better than that. Those rankings should change this winter. If he moves to an FV55 in Fangraphs those are the kinds of players that might skip a level. I look forward to seeing how he is viewed after the midseason rankings.
  20. jorgenswest
    I wonder if the Mariners would be looking to replace some power that they lost in free agency. How close would Wallner be to matching Harry Ford’s value?
  21. jorgenswest
    I think an argument to be made that no catcher was run on more than Caratini. He is in a virtual tie with Augustin Ramirez in most stolen bases per 9. Ramirez was a rookie. He will probably get better. Caratini was in his 9th major league season. He probably won’t. In just 408 innings he allowed 57 stolen bases while throwing out only 7. The meager 408 innings should also stand out. That is only 28% of the Astros catcher load last year. The last and only time he was the primary catcher for a team was 2021. That wasn’t the catching plan for the Padres. Austin Nolan made three visits to the IL missing more than half the season. Even as a back up with the Twins he is bound to see over 700 innings at catcher as long as he stays healthy. No team in his 9 years has gone into the season with a plan to play him that much at catcher. Would it be wise to have that plan going into his age 32 season?
  22. jorgenswest
    Miranda had one season as a prospect where his future value was above 40+. Even in his 2022 report he was an FV50 and came in at #91. He was also ranked 90th and 95th by MLB and Baseball America. He was not seen by those publications as a future star. A few players with that pedigree become stars but most bounce in and out of the majors. At his prospect peak Fangraphs wrote… There was hope that he could grow beyond that. He didn’t and his success often hinged on streaks of a high BABIP. Without a position where he helped defensively he really needed to be more selective at the plate. When he toned down his aggressive approach to be more selective he also took from away his one strength at the plate.
  23. jorgenswest
    I think everyone on the 2026 roster needs to have some possibility of upside or be an established starter.
  24. jorgenswest
    561 plate appearances or 58% more.
  25. jorgenswest
    If they share the opportunity between Beckham and Altuve do they find either? Altuve is an 93 OPS+ after three years and 1536 PAs. If don’t think he makes the same progress if he is on the bench twice a week.
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