Jamie Cameron

Carlos Correa is a Twin! What does the move mean for Austin Martin, Brooks Lee, and Royce Lewis, a trio of high upside infield prospects? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker - USA Today Sports Barring a dramatic third u-turn of the postseason, the Carlos Correa sweepstakes are over. Correa’s free agency played out much like a 2022 Vikings game, the Twins coming from behind to win a contest they had no right to. Fans can’t complain though, their team having linked the irresistibly charismatic duo of Correa and Byron Buxton together until at least 2028. Indications suggest Correa’s physical shouldn’t be a problem (Dr. Nick Riviera supervising). Jokes aside, the addition creates a log jam for the Twins in the infield, with established big leaguers (Jorge Polanco, Nick Gordon, Luis Arraez ) and up and coming prospects (Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Austin Martin) vying for at bats. How will the Correa signing impact the Twins high ceiling infield prospects? Austin Martin There are folks still high on Martin as a prospect. I am not one of them. The centerpiece of the Jose Berrios trade to the Blue Jays, Martin got off to a good start for the Twins, putting together a 122 wRC+ in his first 168 plate appearances at AA. 2022 was a struggle. In 404 plate appearances, Martin managed just an 89 wRC+, .315 SLG and committed 18 errors in 70 games at shortstop for AA Wichita, as a 23-year-old. Martin still has some value due to good on base skills and speed but he’s at the bottom of the depth chart for Twins infield prospects. I think it’s likely he’s part of a trade package for a team that thinks they can help him get back on track. Royce Lewis How different might the Twins offseason have looked if Lewis had remained healthy in 2022? In a tantalizing 40 plate appearances, he mashed to the tune of a 146 wRC+ and .550 SLG. Unsustainable numbers, but they provided a taste of Lewis’ incredible athleticism. Lewis also played better-than-expected defense and shortstop, managing 1 OAA in his 12 games. Projection systems like him for 2023, with Fangraphs predicting 2.3 fWAR in 330 plate appearances. The injury history is troubling, but Lewis still possesses the best athletic profile and some of the best speed in the organization. With Jose Miranda entrenched at third base, it’s possible Lewis becomes a right-handed outfield option (but that’s where he got hurt!), or he’s traded to help balance the roster. When asked about the signing of Correa, Lewis was his typically positive, effusive self. Brooks Lee The Twins couldn’t believe their luck in the 2022 draft when Brooks Lee, a candidate to go number one overall, fell into their laps at number eight. Lee has dominated in his short minor league career, posting a 140 wRC+ at A+ before moving to AA at the end of the season for a handful of games. While Lee’s defensive profile is not to stick at shortstop (he’s likely a good defensive third baseman), the hit tool is legit. He should be pushing a .300 batting average in MLB as a switch hitter and likely makes his debut with the Twins in 2023. Lee could fetch a hefty return in a trade package, as he was seen as the safest high ceiling pick in the 2022 draft. Clearly, Lee isn’t overly concerned with where he plays for the Twins, as he recently passed on to Ted Schwerzler. If you were in the hot seat, what would do with these three infield prospects? Move them to a different position? Trade them? Feel free to leave trade proposals or positional adjustment ideas in the comments. View full article

The Twins now have the number 5 overall pick in the 2023 draft. Which pitching prospects might they target with the pick? Here's a look at five names to know. Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo While the Minnesota Twins offseason has been slow and laborious, the organization was granted a boon on Tuesday night, jumping eight spots in the inaugural MLB Draft Lottery, snagging the number five overall pick in the process. The pick offers the Twins a huge opportunity to add a top-100 caliber prospect with their first pick. With that in mind, who are names to know? An oft-injured Jacob DeGrom netted a staggering 5-year, $185 million contract this season. Why is this relevant to the Twins draft? Contracts like this make it extremely unlikely that Minnesota will be players in elite starting pitching free agency. The Twins have leaned heavily into college bats since the Derek Falvey era began, is it time to buck that trend? Here are some pitching prospects to know ahead of prep/college baseball season (in no particular order). These names are extremely preliminary. This list will change significantly as the season unfolds, but it’s never too early to start draft prep! Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee At the time of writing, Chase Dollander is a consensus top two prospect in the 2023 draft. So, why include his name on the list? The MLB Draft is ALWAYS full of surprises (remember Kumar Rocker)? Dollander is an ace in the making. The 6’3 righty struck out 108 batters in just 79 inning of work in 2022. His fastball sits at 95mph but is routinely humped up to 99mph. Dollander has a slider, curveball, and changeup combination for secondary offerings, in addition to excellent control (13 walks in 2022). If he has a good 2023 season, he’s a candidate to go first overall. Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest Lowder has a flow that rivals Mike Clevinger’s and more importantly, had an outstanding sophomore season at Wake. Lowder struck out 105 batters in 99 innings of work. Lowder has good control, walking 26 in 2022. His arsenal consists of a low-mid 90s fastball and a filthy changeup that is already a plus pitch. Lowder made a massive leap between his freshman and sophomore seasons and is a name to watch in 2023. Paul Skenes, RHP/DH, LSU Skenes is a two way player who transferred to LSU after his sophomore season and will spend 2023 under the tutelage of Wes Johnson. Skenes is a unit at 6’6, 235lbs and has a profile the Twins would find appealing as a pitcher. His fastball sits in the mid 90s but he can crank it up to 98mph, also boasting high spin rates. Skenes has a split change with late tumble and a sharp slider as secondary offerings. Oh, and he clubbed 13 home runs in 2022 for Air Force. Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida Waldrep has one of the most electric arms in the 2023 draft class. Initially used as a reliever in his freshman season at Florida, he transitioned to a full time starter role in 2022. In 90 innings of work he struck out 140 batters (not a typo) and walked 33. Waldrep has a fastball he cranks up to 98mph in addition to a sharp slider that posted a 53% whiff rate in 2022. Waldrep is the epitome of a dominant power pitcher. If he can avoid reliever risk, he can be one of the first pitchers off the board. Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit HS Meyer has the type of profile that will rocket up draft boards with a strong spring. At 18 years old, 6’5, and 195 lbs, he still has a ton of projectability left and has already moved from a fringy first round prospect to an established middle to front end prospect. Meyer’s fastball already sits 96-98 mph. Additionally, he has a power slider that sits mid-upper 80s with vicious break. Meyer has a solid, repeatable motion and with a strong spring, is the likely favorite to be the top prep arm taken in the draft. Which of these names appeals to you? What prospects are you most excited about ahead of the 2023 draft? View full article

Mitch Haniger is an ideal candidate to add some right-handed thump to a lineup that lost its best right-handed hitter this offseason. Image courtesy of Steven Bisig - USA Today Sports The slow erosion that was the 2022 season has given way to guarded excitement as we enter free agency. The Twins have a true tabula rasa, with around $60 million to spend to get in the ballpark of last year’s payroll total. Much of the focus has centered on shortstop, catcher, and high upside starting pitching, understandably so. I’d argue a right-handed, outfield power-bat should be on the shopping list, too. Enter Mitch Haniger. Twins Need a Viable, Right Handed, Big Bat Haniger would serve several purposes in the Twins lineup; let's address a few. He’d replace the thump that somewhat absorbs losing Carlos Correa. While there are rumblings that the Twins are preparing to offer Correa the largest contract in franchise history, it remains unlikely the Twins will add one of the uber-shortstops this winter, in which case, they need a right-handed power bat. Additionally, the Twins need to bring balance to their outfield. Byron Buxton and Kyle Garlick combined to play 158 games for the Twins in 2022 (many at DH). Beyond these two players, the Twins outfield options (Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner) are left-handed. Haniger Doesn’t Break the Bank Let’s deal with some elephants in some rooms. First, Haniger does not have a good health track record. Since 2018, he’s alternated playing close to 160 games, or 60 games in a season. While you may have already stopped reading given the Twins recent track record with injuries, they hired a new athletic trainer and it’s a new season. In 2022, Haniger’s missed time was largely due to a high ankle sprain. Haniger’s injury history also means a more reasonable price point. MLB Trade Rumors projected his contract to be 3 years, $39 million. In the last two seasons in which Haniger has remained healthy, he’s put up 7.3 fWAR. That’s plenty good value. It’s unlikely, but if Haniger didn’t like the offers he received early in the offseason, perhaps he’d take a two-year deal at a higher AAV (2 years, $32 million). At just 31, that seems feasible. Massive Upside Lastly, let’s talk upside. Haniger is a monster when healthy. He’s also a pull side right-handed hitter, which would play well at Target Field. In his major league career, Haniger has shown significant consistency, putting up a career .476 SLG, 122 wRC+, and .811 OPS. If he’s on the field, you know what you’re going to get. In Haniger’s last two full seasons, he’s combined for 60 home runs, so an expectation of 30 in 150 games seems reasonable. Lastly, Haniger adds some experience to an extremely young core. There’s a lot to like. Clearly, much of what the Twins accomplish this offseason will depend on their solution at shortstop. If they fail to land one of the premier options, a pivot to Haniger as a high impact bat, and an elite front of the rotation starter would soften the blow for me. What do you think of Mitch Haniger as a fit for the Twins? Who are other options you’d consider as big bats beyond the elite start shortstops this offseason? View full article

The Twins have struggled in adding effective relief pitchers in the past two off-seasons. Here are three next steps that would indicate a change in approach to bullpen building. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, USA Today Sports I’d argue that bullpen construction is one of the areas in which Derek Falvey-led Twins front office has consistently failed in executing since taking over in Minnesota. In 2021, the pen was marred by repeated first-half meltdowns from Alexander Colomé. That unit ranked 22nd by fWAR, 21st by FIP, and 16th by K/9 after a second-half recovery. In 2022, Emilio Pagán single-handedly blew a handful of games to eventual AL Central champion Cleveland Guardians. The 2022 unit ranked 20th by fWAR, 14th by FIP, and 12th by K/9. At least a modicum of improvement. Overall, however, this front office has taken the ‘building the plane while flying it approach’ to bullpen construction. While 2022 went as badly as it could for a variety of reasons, most notably player health, here are three trends to look for that might indicate a different approach to bullpen construction in 2023. Shop for Relievers, Earlier than Later This front office has shied away from any spending on relief arms. Prior to 2022, Joe Smith was the lone bullpen addition signed to a major league contract (Pagan was acquired by trade). I’m not advocating for the Twins to put together an Edwin Díaz-type contract for a relief pitcher, but $6-9 million can buy you a lot of arm. This front office typically waits until late in free agency to extract contract value. I’d like to see them add to the bullpen, aggressively, targeting velocity and stuff. The Twins couple easily push toward a top-ten bullpen by raising the floor on what they ran out in 2022, and it shouldn’t cost that much. Stop valuing good contracts over good players. There’s No Such Thing as too Many Options The Twins have several exciting internal options for the bullpen. Matt Canterino, Ronny Henriquez, Blayne Enlow, even Josh Winder. All of these options have something in common, they were either hurt in 2022 or unproven in a bullpen role in 2022. I’d bet that at least one of these names becomes a Griffin Jax type in 2023. That is to say, a solid mid-to-high-end reliever who can work in some mid-to-high leverage situations. If the Twins learned anything in 2023, however, it should be not to count on anyone or anything going to plan. The Twins need to have a semi-established bullpen pecking order by the end of April, not by the All-Star Break. Buy-Low Arms for Depth Only The Twins should never have an arm like Joe Smith in their bullpen if they want to be taken seriously. The best bullpens in MLB are stacked with velocity, movement, and high-caliber arms. The Twins capacity to reach that ceiling is pretty exciting (imagine a back end of Canterino, Alcala, López, and Duran). With that in mind, and learning and building from the best models available (Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, etc.) the Twins should only be bringing in ‘buy-low’ type arms as competition in spring training, and depth throughout the season. If the Twins front office did nothing to the bullpen between now and opening day, the ceiling is high, and the potential is exciting. The observable difference in behavior ahead of 2023 is whether they choose to raise the floor, and account for the unexpected. What changes would you like to see from the front office in how approach building their bullpen ahead of 2023? Join the discussion and leave your thoughts below. View full article

This offseason, the Twins could go after an upgrade at catcher. Instead, the Twins should enter 2023 with Ryan Jeffers as their primary catcher, here are three reasons why. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski, USA Today Sports The offseason is nearly among us. Close to the top of the Twins offseason priority list is solidifying their plans for the catcher position. Essentially, the Twins have three options; move forwards with Ryan Jeffers as their primary catcher, sign a free agent to be their primary option, or trade for catching help. I’m for the former of these possibilities. Here’s three reasons why. The Twins have more pressing needs this offseason. Shortly after the conclusion of the World Series, Carlos Correa will opt out of the remaining two years of his deal with the Twins. It remains highly unlikely Minnesota will sign him to the type of extension his performance warrants. Concurrently, Minnesota’s internal options are either not ready (Lee), injured (Lewis), or not shortstops (Martin). The Twins should prioritize getting a long-term option at shortstop under contract this offseason. Additionally, the organization needs to add to the front end of the rotation, depth in the bullpen, and a right-handed power bat. While the offensive addition could also be a catcher, the quantity of injuries in 2022 to the likes of Buxton, Larnach, Kirilloff and co make outfield depth more a pressing need. Ryan Jeffers has shown he can be the primary catcher. Jeffers missed significant time in 2022 due to a broken thumb, an injury not easy to recover from or to account for. In his limited MLB service time, Jeffers has shown the ability to be an MLB starter. In 172 MLB games over three seasons, he’s amassed 2.2 fWAR. While it’s a common refrain to criticize Jeffers inability to throw out potential base stealers, he’s a capable defender. Jeffers typically puts together outstanding framing numbers and calls games expertly, a skill as unknown as it is underappreciated (just look at the numbers of pitchers when El Gary took over in the second half of 2022). Jeffers also has rare power for the position, and although prone to slumps at the plate, it feels like there is more upside and consistency to tap into there. Jeffers’ cost allows the Twins to prioritize payroll elsewhere. Whether we want to acknowledge this as a reality or not, it simply is. Jeffers isn’t arbitration eligible until 2024. On a Twins roster with so little elite upside, cost control is meaningful, and beneficial. Jeffers deserved a full season as the primary option (65% of games) to show what he is fully capable of. If he delivers, it’s a boon that could serve the Twins until 2027. What are your thoughts on how the Twins should move forward at catcher? Is Jeffers the best option? Or is there a better fit via trade or free agency? View full article

Only six pitchers in the top 50 prospects this year. Thin, to put it mildly.

The International Free Agent signing period opens on January 15th, 2023. The Twins have been linked to signing three of the top 50 prospects. Come and read up on an impressive crop of incoming players for Minnesota. The signing period for International Free Agency opens on January 15th, 2023. As a team who received a competitive balance pick in Round B of the MLB Draft, the Twins will have a signing bonus pool of $6,366,900. The Twins have a strong history in International Free Agency, both with higher end names (see Emmanuel Rodriguez), and lesser known prospects (see current batting champ, Luis Arraez). Minnesota has been closely tied to, and is expected to sign, three of the top 50 prospects, per MLB.com 11. Ariel Castro, OF, Cuba The White Sox are usually the AL Central players when is comes to Cuban prospects. Not this time. Castro is ranked as the eleventh overall prospect in International Free Agency, per MLB.com. Expect him to command a hefty bonus to reflect this ranking and projection. Castro is already 6’2, 180 lbs at just 16 years old and has one of the better left-handed swings in the class. As with any international free agent, its challenging to project a 16-year-old player, but Castro has the all-round profile that reads similar to Emmanuel Rodriguez, now a consensus top 100 global prospect. Castro has average speed and despite good instincts, is likely a corner outfielder at the professional level. The bat is the selling point here. He has the capability of developing plus hit and power tools, a combination that would make him an extremely valuable commodity at the next level. 31. Carlos Silva, C, Venezuela The Twins have a long, successful history of scouting in Venezuela and Silva is part of an impressive class of catchers in international free agency this year. He is 16, 5’9, listed at 150 lbs, and already has a balanced profile that blends a good approach at the plate with strong defensive skills. Behind the plate, Silva has a strong arm and a quick release and pop time. Offensively, he has good bat speed. Although he currently favors the pull side, he has the potential to develop an all-round offensive approach at the plate. Silva would bolster a position of need organizationally for the Twins. 38. Hendry Chivilli, SS, Dominican Republic Chivilli is one of 32 Dominican players in the top 50 international free agents and one of 20 infielders. Currently 17, Chivilli is 6’3 and 155 lbs. Chivilli fits the Twins mold in 2023, with no one standout tool. (He grades as a future 50 in all areas of his game). What is notable about Chivilli is his athleticism. He will add a ton of weight and muscle in the coming years, giving him a healthy level of projectability to add real offensive upside to his already solid defense as short. Which of these prospects excites you the most? View full article

Bailey Ober dominated the White Sox on Tuesday night. The tall right-hander struck out ten in seven innings of one-hit baseball, inducing twenty swings and misses. Matt Wallner hit his first home run at Target Field in the win. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober 7.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K Homeruns: Matt Wallner (2) Top 3 WPA: Bailey Ober .348, Jose Miranda .169, Jake Cave .029 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Here’s how the Twins lined up to face the White Sox in the opening game of a three game series at Target Field on Tuesday night, their final home series of the 2022 season. Ober and Out With nine games remaining at the end of a 2022 season that has come to a sputtering halt, the Twins are left to look for positives. Bailey Ober stepped up in a big way on Tuesday night. The tall right-hander dominated a feeble White Sox lineup. Ober worked quickly, efficiently, and had pinpoint control. Over seven one-hit innings, he threw 73% strikes, struck out ten hitters, and induced twenty swings and misses. Ober is one of many Twins whose season has been derailed by injuries. Furthermore, Ober’s timeline for return consistently shifted throughout the season as he spent significant portions of the season on the IL with groin problems. He reminded Twins fans what he is capable of on Tuesday and adds his name is a stable of possible starting pitching options for 2023, albeit one in which almost every name is also accompanied by health-related questions. Plenty of Offense, Just Enough Runs The Twins had plenty of traffic on the base paths on Tuesday night, with few early returns. Three consecutive singles from Jose Miranda, Gio Urshela, and Jake Cave gave Minnesota a one run lead in the bottom of the second inning. Doubles from Luis Arraez and Miranda added another run to the lead in the bottom of the third. The Twins had tallied nine hits, producing just two runs, when Matt Wallner stepped to the plate in the bottom of the sixth inning. Wallner hit his second home run of the season and first at Target Field. The moon shoot cleared the right field wall, giving Twins fans another exciting glimpse of a promising 2023 season storyline. After surrendering his second hit in the top of the eighth inning, Ober was relieved by Griffin Jax, who made short work of the rest of the inning, striking out both hitters he faced on just ten pitches. Jhoan Duran closed the game for the Twins in the ninth inning, striking out two and bringing the total tally to 14 on the night for the Twins pitching staff. On a brisk, 56 degree night at Target Field, seeing the Twins put together an efficient, excellent performance in all phases of the game will be heartening for fans enjoying the dying embers of the 2022 season. Bullpen Usage Chart FRI SAT SUN MON TUES TOT Henriquez 0 0 68 0 0 68 Megill 28 0 32 0 0 60 Duran 0 24 0 0 15 39 Jax 0 27 0 0 10 37 Thielbar 10 13 0 0 0 23 Pagán 23 0 0 0 0 23 López 0 11 0 0 0 11 Fulmer 0 9 0 0 0 9 Moran 0 0 6 0 0 6 Next Up On Wednesday, the Twins will continue their series against the White Sox. Josh Winder starts for Minnesota, against Johnny Cueto for the White Sox. First pitch is a 6:40 CT. Postgame Interviews View full article

The Twins lost a combined no-hit bid with one out in the ninth inning when Bobby Witt Jr doubled off Jovani Moran. Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda, and Gio Urshela all hit home runs for the Twins in a comfortable 6-3 win. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel - USA Today Sports Box Score Starting Pitcher: Ryan 7.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K Homeruns: Correa (20), Miranda (15), Urshela (12) Top 3 WPA: Ryan .285, Correa .243, Arraez .137 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Here’s how the Twins lined up to face the Kansas City Royals in the opening game of a three game series at Target Field on Tuesday night. Remaining Big Bats Bop The Twins offense rolled against Kansas City on Monday night. Although he runs didn’t come immediately, they kept at it, and were eventually rewarded. The Twins jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the third inning with a double from Carlos Correa and a single from Jose Miranda scoring Gilberto Celestino and Luis Arraez. The Twins added to their lead in the middle innings. Correa continued his torrid hitting, clubbing his 20th home run of the season into the left-field seats. Miranda followed with the second home run of the inning, his 15th overall. Miranda’s production (125 wRC+) and continued health have been one of the few kindnesses Twins fans have experienced in a deflating second half of the season. His performance has surely cemented his standing as an organizational lynchpin for the Twins moving forwards. Gio Urshela added a home run, his 12th, in the sixth inning, taking the Twins tally to 11 hits on the night. Four players had at least two hits, led by Arraez and Correa with three each. Joe Ryan Carries No-Hitter Through Seven Innings Joe Ryan has not been the same pitcher for the Minnesota Twins since an early season bout with COVID. His velocity was down for a time afterwards, his command and control more shaky. Not tonight (insert Kurt Russell Miracle gif). Tonight, Ryan was dominant. Ryan threw seven no-hit innings for the Twins, tallying nine strikeouts on 106 pitches. Ryan showed good command and control throughout his start, generating 13 swings and misses. The crowd let the Twins hear about it when he was pulled for Jovani Moran at the top of the eighth inning. With a 99% win probability, Ryan desperately needed in the next series against Cleveland, and having thrown over 100 pitches, it was a sensible call. While Burnsville armchair GMs were lamenting Rocco Baldelli’s decision to pull Ryan from the game, Jovani Moran struck out two batters on his way to a scoreless eighth inning. The Twins were three outs away from a combined no-hitter. Moran returned in the ninth inning, striking out Drew Waters before walking Hunter Dozier and MJ Melendez. Moran then gave up a double to Bobby Witt Jr to get the Royals on the board and end the no-hit bid with one out in the ninth inning. Moran gave up another two runs, cutting the lead to 6-3, before finally slamming the door with his fourth strikeout. Bullpen Usage Chart FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT Sands 0 77 0 0 0 77 Lopez 0 0 18 0 0 18 Duran 0 0 27 0 0 27 Pagán 0 33 0 0 0 33 Moran 17 0 0 0 40 57 Sanchez 46 0 0 0 0 46 Fulmer 0 0 18 0 0 18 Thielbar 0 0 15 0 0 15 Davis 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jax 0 0 8 0 0 8 Megill 0 14 0 0 0 14 Next Up On Wednesday, the Twins will continue their series against the Royals. Sonny Gray starts for Minnesota, against Zack Greinke for the Royals. First pitch is a 6:40 CT. Postgame Interviews View full article

Justin Verlander no-hit the Twins through six innings as the Twins were dominated by the Astros. Rocco Baldelli was ejected, Byron Buxton hit the IL, and Cole Sands exited the game after being hit by a comebacker on a rough day for Minnesota. Box Score Starting Pitcher: Aaron Sanchez 4.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO (75-50) Homeruns: None Bottom 3 WPA: Jake Cave -.246, Aaron Sanchez A -.104, Gary Sanchez G -,092 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Life comes are you fast. A week ago, the Twins were in the midst of a 9-0 demolition of the Royals, at the mid-point of an optimism catalyzing four-game win streak. Today, they are spiraling. A series in Houston was never going to be appetizing, no matter the form or health of the roster. The Minnesota Twins’ stars, however, have aligned in a tragedy of Shakespearian proportions, with the illusive ‘TBD’ pitcher to face Justin Verlander being named as Aaron Sanchez. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer are slated to start game two and three respectively. Inhale, exhale, puke. The Twins star-crossed roster was also reeling from the news that Byron Buxton hit the IL for the first time in 2022 with a hip strain on Tuesday afternoon. Before any twitter bots with binary code in their handles get to say ‘I told you so’, let’s take a moment to commend the Twins on their plan to maximize Buxton’s time on the field so far in 2022. He’s played 92 games in 2022 (100 combined in 2020 and 2021) and has been worth 4.0 fWAR thus far on the season. Get well soon, Byron. Twins Offense Late to Ballpark, Arrives at Minute Maid in the Seventh Inning Carlos Correa singled in the top of the seventh inning. Max Kepler and Gio Urshela had back to back hits in the top of the eighth. No runners scored. The Twins offense finally delivered 'something' in the ninth inning, a walk and three hits plating Luis Arraez and Jorge Polanco to score their first runs of the game. This concludes all relevant updates on the Twins offense in game one of their series in Houston. Baldelli Ejected in Fifth Inning Following Bench Clearance Aaron Sanchez performed solidly against one of the best teams in baseball in his first four innings. He surrendered two runs on a Mauricio Dubon single in the second inning, and back-to-back doubles from Kyle Tucker and Trey Mancini in the fourth, the latter of which Nick Gordon seemed to slightly misjudge in center field. In the bottom of the fifth inning, Jose Altuve was hit by a pitch. Altuve and Sanchez exchanged words, leading to a pedestrian bench clearance. The clearance was apparently designated as a mound visit by home plate umpire Rob Drake. When Pete Maki came out to visit with Sanchez after a Yuli Gurriel walk, the umpires designated it the second visit of the inning, mandating that Sanchez be removed from the game. Rocco Baldelli lost it, and was ejected in the subsequent argument, giving Cole Sands plenty of time to warm up in long relief. Twins Offense Less Futile, Still Pretty Futile Against Astros Pen With eyes on loftier goals, the Astros removed Verlander after six no-hit innings and 10 strikeouts. On another day, I’d be more inclined to compliment the longevity and dominance of one of the best pitchers of his generation, tonight, I was just baffled by how inept the Twins offense looked. Cole Sands, who had pitched effectively in relief, exited the game in the seventh inning after being struck in the arm by a comebacker. Trevor Megill relieved Sands and surrendered a two-run homer to Alex Bregman, extended the Astros lead to 4-0. After a couple of wobbles, the Astros bullpen saw off the Twins for the final three innings. Under normal circumstances, surrendering just four runs away at Houston would give an effective offense a good chance to win a tricky road test. This Twins offense however, is just not effective. Four runs was more than enough, and the Twins fell to 62-59 on the season, losing their fourth game in a row. Bullpen Usage Chart FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT Pagán 0 0 39 0 14 53 Megill 24 0 15 0 8 47 Thielbar 17 11 0 12 0 40 Sands 0 0 0 0 38 38 López 20 9 0 0 0 29 Jax 0 11 0 14 0 25 Fulmer 0 0 0 12 0 12 Duran 10 0 0 0 0 10 Next Up On Wednesday, the Twins will continue their series against Houston. Dylan Bundy goes for the Twins against Framber Valdez for the Astros. First pitch is 7:10pm CT Postgame Interviews View full article

The Twins put an excellent game together on Tuesday night, tallying 16 hits to crush the Royals and support Sonny Gray's 10 strikeout performance. The win closed the Guardians division lead to just one game. Box Score Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray 6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 SO Homeruns: Gilberto Celestino (2) Top 3 WPA: Sonny Gray .179, Caleb Thielbar .158, Gilberto Celestino .125 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) After doing ‘just enough’ on Monday night, the Twins were back at it on Tuesday, looking to get a winning streak, and some momentum going in their efforts to chase down the Cleveland Guardians. Here’s how they lined up against Zack Greinke. Jorge Polanco was the notable absentee after being lifted from the series opener with knee soreness after an awkward slide. Prior to the game, a pensive sounding Sonny Gray, somewhat carefully, stated his desire to pitch deeper into ballgames. I’d love to hear folks thoughts on Gray’s interview in the comments. Gray Dominates Weak Royals Lineup Whatever Sonny Gray was alluding to in his pre-game interview, he sure delivered in the mound. The Twins recent weeks have been incredibly frustrating to watch. Games have been punctuated by a sputtering offense, poor pitching, or both. Boy, did Gray hold up his end of the bargain on Tuesday night. After cruising through six innings, Gray ran into trouble in the seventh, giving up back to back singles to Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino. Gray was close to his best however, throwing 61 strikes in 92 pitches while racking up ten strikeouts, tying a season high. Gray was relieved by Caleb Thielbar with two men on and no outs in the seventh innings. Lots of Hits, Not Enough Big Hits Early for Twins Offense The offensive showing was painfully familiar through the firsttwo-thirdss of the game. Through five innings, the Twins had managed 8 hit, but managed just three runs off Zack Greinke. Going back to their poor final two games in the Angels series, the Twins were 4 for their last 34 (.117) with runners in scoring position. The Twins scored twice in the second inning. After a Gio Urshela single, Gilberto Celestino reached on a fielding error. A Sandy Leon bunt scored Urshela, while a Luis Arraez single brought home Celestino. Celestino added a solo home run in his next at bat in the fourth inning, his second in his last five games. With limited right-handed flexibility in the lineup, Celestino developing any kind of line drive power would be a welcome surprise for the Twins. Thielbar Snuffs out Runners, Twins Add On Despite Gray running into trouble in the top of the seventh inning, the Twins had the perfect foil in Caleb Thielbar. With two men on and no outs, he pitched a scoreless frame, striking out two. Thielbar has been one of the Twins best relievers in 2022, and outside April, has been the lone bullpen success story to start the season with the Twins not name Jhoan Duran. The Twins did what they have struggled to do in recent games in the bottom of the seventh inning, add on. A Max Kepler groundout, Gio Urshela single, and a Nick Gordon double added on three runs, increasing the lead to 6-0 and offering the kind of all around offensive output the Twins will need to continue to win the AL Central. Michael Fulmer and Cole Sands pitched the final two (scoreless) innings of the game for Minnesota. In the bottom of the eighth, the Twins added three more runs, courtesy of singles from Jose Miranda, Gio Urshela, and Nick Gordon. After the wreckage had cleared, the Twins managed 16 hits and ended the game 6-18 with runners in scoring position. Elsewhere in the AL Central, the Guardians lost, allowing the Twins to close within a game of Cleveland, having played two less games. Bullpen Usage Chart FRI SAT SUN MON TUES TOT Duran 15 19 0 10 0 44 López 10 19 0 13 0 42 Fulmer 12 0 20 0 7 39 Thielbar 0 13 0 8 17 38 Jax 0 13 0 14 0 27 Megill 0 0 26 0 0 26 Pagan 0 9 10 0 0 19 Sands 0 0 0 0 19 19 Next Up On Wednesday, the Twins will conclude their series against Kansas City. Tyler Mahle goes for the Twins against Daniel Lynch for the Royals. First pitch is 12:10pm CT Postgame Interviews View full article

This is a more than fair point, so let me expand on what I mean a little more. I think the biggest frustration at the moment, is the feeling of inevitability of what is going to happen after you have burned Jax and Duran. In this case, Jax was used in the seventh, Duran the eighth. I'm sure, in an ideal world, they would have loved to to use Duran again in the ninth, but he struggled (uncharacteristically). It's more than fair to shift this blame/narrative to a failing of the front office, it just felt like, in the game, when Williams and Hader were staggered in the 8th and 9th, compared to Jax and Duran in the 7th and 8th, it was advantage Brewers. The Twins have plenty of OK-ish MLB relievers, but realistically, they need two more guys who can perform in high leverage. Pagan, Duffey, Cotton, Smith - have all shown that they are categorically not those guys, but because there are only two (maybe three with Thielbar) really reliable relievers, they have to take turns in important innings, it usually goes poorly. If the write up tonight was a little gloomy, it's just because I perceive the bullpen construction as such an abject failure by this front office. I think the Twins need two good relievers to have a good October bullpen. This is especially true when you think about how October games are won (short starts, lots of pitching changes and matchup coordination). So back to the original point, absolutely fair, the pen was fine in this game, it just not constructed in a way that gives the Twins a shot at winning enough times when it comes down to our pen VS an opponents.

The Twins lost 7-6 to the Brewers on Tuesday. Despite an excellent fightback and a solid overall offensive performance, the Twins couldn't overcome a poor start from Dylan Bundy, and ran out of effective relivers at the end of the game. Box Score Starting Pitcher: Bundy 4.0 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO, 2 HR (77 pitches, 50 strikes) Homeruns: Buxton (24), Urshela (9) Bottom 3 WPA: Duffey -.360, Bundy -.327, Kirilloff -.155 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) After an easy two-game sweep of the Tigers, Byron Buxton was looking to keep things moving in the right direction for the AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins, just one week away from the trade deadline. Buxton crushed a fastball 112 mph, 449 feet for a home run in the first at-bat of the inning. The Twins didn’t manage to add on, despite a Carlos Correa double and Kyle Garlick being gifted two bases by an errant infield throw. The end of the first inning and the bottom of the second were the perfect amalgam of the 2022 Twins weaknesses, rolled into a painfully predictable 10-minute sequence. In the bottom of the second Dylan Bundy gave up two soft singles, before surrendering a blistering, three-run home run to left field off the bat Hunter Renfroe. The Brewers added another run, increasing the lead to 4-1. It was the useful reminder no Twins fans needed, that Bundy is simply not an effective major league caliber starting pitcher. The margin of error, when topping out at 90 mph, is just too small. Jose Miranda laced a two-run double to left field in the top of the third inning to score Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco, cutting the lead to 4-3. Bundy immediately returned the favor in the bottom of the third, surrendering another long home run to Luis Urias to make the lead 5-3. In the top of the fifth, the Twins took their second lead of the night. A Jose Miranda single and a walk from Jorge Polanco set the stage for an impressive three-run home run from Gio Urshela, who has made a habit of big moments in his first season in Minnesota. Joe Smith relieved Dylan Bundy. It went about as expected. Smith got through an inning, but gave up the game-tying run, a solo home run from Kolton Wong. Emilio Pagan followed in sixth and worked a scoreless inning, but the pitching order of Bundy, Smith, and Pagan was an obvious reminder of the Twins lack of high-end pitching depth against a fellow division leader. The Twins could have taken the lead in the top of the seventh. Jorge Polanco walked and Jose Miranda followed up with his third hit of the night, an infield single. A Gio Urshela fly ball looked as if it would drop but for a shoe-string intervention from Brewers centerfielder Jonathan Davis. Griffin Jax pitched a scoreless, efficient inning for the Twins in the seventh, taking the game into the eighth inning tied 6-6. Devin Williams pitched a scoreless eighth for the Brewers, making Twins hitters not named Luis Arraez look silly in the process. Jhoan Duran took over for the Twins in the bottom of the inning and struggled. After beginning the inning with a strikeout, the Brewers got a runner on first via a Luis Urias single. Two walks followed and Duran had loaded the bases (and walked two hitters for the first time in his career) with Willy Adames at the plate. After throwing nothin but triple digit fastballs, Duran peeled off a bowel-locking curveball that froze Adames to end the threat. Hader pitched a clean and much too easy ninth inning, getting Buxton, Correa, and Polanco on just nine pitches. Tyler Duffey relieved Duran, who had thrown 32 pitches in the eighth. After a quick out, Duffey surrendered a single and two walks to load the bases with one out. Luis Urias won the game for the Brewers on a sacrifice fly to right field. In a battle of the bullpens, the vastly superior bullpen will usually win. Outside of Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Duran the Twins pitching staff looks like an Escher painting of question marks at a critical juncture of their season. The Twins continue to teeter in the AL Central, seemingly the least flawed team in an ugly division, but, as currently constructed, so obviously falling short of the type of roster that could legitimately threaten in October. With the trade deadline imminent, the next week promises to be extremely interesting in Twins Territory. Bullpen Usage Chart FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT Duran 0 11 0 0 32 43 Duffey 0 11 0 0 25 36 Smith 0 0 16 0 17 33 Moran 0 28 0 0 0 28 Jax 0 0 13 0 12 25 Pagan 0 2 0 0 20 22 Cotton 0 0 11 0 0 11 Megill 0 7 0 0 0 7 Thielbar 0 0 0 0 0 0 Next Up On Wednesday, the Twins will conclude their series in Milwaukee. Chris Archer takes the mound for the Twins, against Corbin Burnes of the Brewers. First pitch is 1:10 CT Postgame Interviews View full article

The 2022 MLB Draft is in the books. Aside from an outstanding first day, how did the Twins do? What conclusions can we draw from their picks? Here are some insights and some thoughts from Sean Johnson, the Twins Vice President, Amateur Scouting. An Update on the Consensus Big Board The Consensus Big Board worked well in its first year. All of the consensus top 56 we profiled at Twins Daily were drafted. Only 3 players in the 76 I ranked (Tristan Smith, Cam Smith, and Max Martin) were not drafted. They are all high school players going to college. The Minnesota Twins gained 29 draft spots of consensus ranking value with their first two picks. Brooks Lee (ranked 4th, selected 8th), and Connor Prielipp (ranked 23rd, selected 48th), both reflected high value plays by the Twins front office. Barring health issues (which is a big hurdle to clear), the first two picks played out perfectly. Additionally, the consensus board was pretty accurate in the first few rounds. After day one (through 80 picks), 63 of our top 70 players had been drafted. That’s certainly something to build on for next year. In 2023, some of my thoughts on additions will be: Adding more sources (Fangraphs, Perfect Game, etc.) Expanding to 100 picks Limiting the writeups I have a suspicion that the usefulness of the board will be capped at around 75 players, but we’ll use next year to test that theory. Thanks to everyone who commented, gave feedback and interacted with all our pre-draft content at Twins Daily. Now, onto the Twins draft. After Lee and Prielipp, the Twins went heavy on signable college players. That’s not necessarily a trend. Twins VP of Amateur Scouting Sean Johnson says that the Twins "drafted players they liked organically", as opposed to trying to explicitly make savings in later rounds to pay up for initial picks. There were, however, some noticeable trends this year among picks. Here are three. The Twins Targeted Athletes ‘Geez, how many shortstops do the Twins need?' An incredibly tiring refrain tweeted out by many an egg-profile picture sporting twitter account on draft day. The answer is…an infinite number. The Twins picked six shortstops in twenty rounds of the 2022 draft. Brooks Lee (1st), Tanner Schobel (CB-B), Ben Ross (5th), Dalton Shuffield (10th), Omari Daniel (14th), and Jankel Ortiz (16th). Simply, shortstops are typically the best athletes on a given team, the Twins (like many other teams) target athletic players. If a player can play at short, they can play anywhere on the infield (and likely other positions), so please, let’s toss the ridiculous notion that the 'Twins drafted too many shortstops’ out the window forever. Twins are Buying Power Breakouts This may seem obvious, but I think there are some noteworthy case studies here. Competitive Balance pick Tanner Schobel (who Jeremy Nygaard reported has already reached an agreement with the Twins) had a power breakout in 2022. He went from seven home runs and 10 doubles in 2021 to 19 home runs in 2022 with increased elevation and pull-side power. Jorel Ortega, the Twins 6th round pick (and another middle infielder), had a similar breakthrough in 2022. He hit 18 home runs and slugged .672 for the Vols, compared to just one home run and .296 slugging in 2021 in his return from Tommy John surgery. "Just a really strong performer on one of the best college teams in America", says Sean Johnson. Although Ortega is an extreme example, the Twins draft class is littered with them, whether in college, the Cape, or the Northwoods League. Ben Ross is another example. "It's a higher bar to clear (coming from a Division II school), especially on our model, but he held up well on our board", says Johnson of Ross. The Twins are known to value exit velocity in their model. They are also jumping on players who have breakthrough years as a development that may translate to the professional level. Twins Value K/BB Ratio for Pitchers, Confident in Their Ability to add Velocity As John Vittas (play-by-play for Fort Myers) alluded to, the Twins use K:BB as a driving metric for their pitchers. If we look at the pitchers drafted outside of the three mentioned by Vittas, the trend continues: Andrew Morris (91 K, 28 BB) Ben Ethridge (39 K, 7 BB) Zachary Veen (59 K, 3 BB) Garrett McMillan (83 K, 26 BB) Johnson had plenty of interesting insights to share regarding the pitchers the Twins selected. "In these rounds (day 2 and 3), you're looking for one special pitch, something unique", before adding that the Twins feel extremely confident in their player development department in adding velocity to incoming pitchers. Interestingly, Johnson also mentioned careful consideration of the school a pitcher attended, highlighting the additional development possibilities for players who had less access to elite coaching and playing technology in their college programs. On specific pitchers, Johnson had additional insights. "Andrew Morris is a good strike thrower, four solid pitches across the board, we see him as a starter for us". On Zebby Matthews, Johnson noted, "We had him here for a pre-draft workout. He has a chance to throw really hard." When prompted to reflect on the success of last year's draft, particularly with pitchers (Hajjar, Povich, Festa etc.), Johnson noted that no one could have predicted Festa's breakout season, even the scouts who advocated for drafting him. "If you have draft ten guys like him, one might have a breakthrough like that," shares Johnson. What’s not yet clear to me is the extent to which the Twins target raw velocity in their pitchers. In a recent graphic (that I now cannot find), the MLB team was producing some of the most consistently high exit velocities and some of the most consistently low velocities from pitching. It’s likely the front office is working to course correct this in the minors and it just hasn’t shown up yet at the MLB level (besides Duran). What are your takeaways from the draft? What players are you excited to watch? Any Twins draft regrets? View full article