Jamie Cameron

This week, we’ll spend some time looking at prospects the Twins might focus on with the 34th overall pick. As usual with these pieces, the goal is not to make predictions, rather, to give an overview of the type of talent that might be available to teams with this pick. I’ve used these prospects’ current ranking on the Consensus Board to cluster prospects for each team. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp This week, we’ll spend some time looking at prospects the Twins might focus on with the 34th overall pick. As usual with these pieces, the goal is not to make predictions, rather, to give an overview of the type of talent that might be available to teams with this pick. I’ve used these prospects’ current ranking on the Consensus Board to cluster prospects for each team. The Twins are in a strong position entering the 2023 MLB Draft. In addition to having the fourth largest bonus pool, north of $14.3 million, they have four top 100 picks, and three in the top 50. The 2023 Draft class is loaded with talent, one of the strongest in years. In the build up to the Draft, we're going to share some names to watch at particular spots that give an indication of the caliber of talent that might be available for a particular pick. Today, we'll dig into the Twins pick at #34 overall. Jack Hurley Position: OF, Age: 21, School: Virginia Tech, Height: 6’0, Weight: 185, B/T: L/R, Rank: 25 Hurley is one of the more aggressive hitters in college baseball in 2023. Confined to left field due to Gavin Cross occupying center in 2022, Hurley has stepped into center field this season and has enough defense and arm to stay at the position, particularly at the beginning of his pro career. Hurley has a slightly noisy operation at the plate and expands the zone too frequently, but the production is undeniable. At the time of writing in 2023, he managed a .320/.414/.603 line with 17 home runs, carrying an 11 BB% and 22 K%. Power is going to be the carrying tool offensively. If he can stick in center field defensively, it won’t matter that the hit tool might be a bit below average. Hurley is an energetic fiery player on the field and should be among the top forty picks in July. Nolan Schanuel Position: 1B/OF, Age: 21, School: FAU, Height: 6’3, Weight: 195, B/T: L/R, Rank: 29 Schanuel has become one of the most buzz-worthy college bats in the 2023 class. Let’s start with some numbers. In 2023, he has 14 strikeouts, he’s been hit by a pitch 18 times, he’s hit 19 home runs, he walked 71 times. This adds up at a remarkable .447/.615/.868 line on the season with one of the most elite approaches in the class. Schanuel has an unusual load in his swing, his hands starting incredibly high, but it works. The dings you can make against his profile are playing at a mid major and his defensive home. Schanuel played extremely well this season against Florida Atlantic’s better opponents (mashing three home runs in a single game against Florida for instance). He’ll likely be bumped in some models given that his defensive home has been first base throughout his college career. The bat and the offensive profile play though, figure out the defensive home later. George Lombard Jr Position: SS/OF, Age: 18, School: Gulliver Prep HS, FL, Height: 6’3, Weight: 190, B/T: R/R, Rank: 31 Lombard is one of the biggest prep helium bats in the class. Initially, he was 63rd overall on the April version of the consensus board, before rising to 31st in June. He’ll likely climb higher when it’s all said and done. Lombard’s father currently serves as the bench coach for the Detroit Tigers, and Lombard Jr has had an incredibly loud spring in shooting up draft boards. At the plate, Lombard had some swing and miss concerns entering the 2023 season that he has largely put to rest, showing a good approach, with promising in-game power. He cut down on his chase rate this spring and has done a ton of damage as a result. Defensively, he has good actions and an above average arm, although a slower first step and growing frame might eventually move him to third base. He’s part of a very strong group of prep infielders and has a chance to have five above average tools with the projectability he has left. Lombard is currently committed to Vanderbilt. Dillon Head Position: OF, Age: 18, School: Homewood Flossmoor HS, IL, Height: 6’0, Weight: 180, B/T: L/L, Rank: 34 Head is an intriguing outfield prospect out of Illinois, hardly a hotbed of baseball talent. Currently committed to Clemson, he has a ton of buzz in the first two rounds in July. Head is a legitimate center fielder with plus speed who runs efficient routes and has great range as a result. A throwing arm that’s above average adds to an excellent defensive profile. With those tools alone he wouldn’t need to do a ton offensively to be a big value add, but he will be. Head generates good bat speed and manipulates the barrel well. He has gap to gap in game power and can hit home runs to the pull side to accompany his ability to hit the ball the other way. While the power likely won’t amount to even average, the hit tool as above average and the speed and defense make him a valuable commodity at an up the middle position. Cade Kuehler Position: RHP, Age: 21, School: Campbell, Height: 6’0, Weight: 205, B/T: R/R, Rank: 41 In recent seasons, the Twins have tended to focus their initial picks (rounds 1-3) on hitters before turning to college arms in later rounds. With that in mind, Kuehler may be gone before the Twins turn their attention to pitching, but he does have a profile the Twins have had success with recently. Building on the success of a rotation that was headlined by Thomas Harrington in 2022, Kuehler has made strides in 2023. His arsenal starts with a fastball with over 21 inches of IVB (induced vertical break), which sits 93-95 mph but can get up to 98 mph. Kuehler’s primary breaking ball is a slider with good movement that he pairs with a slider/cutter hybrid. Additionally, he throws a more typically moving curveball and will occasionally mix in two seam fastballs to give hitters a different look. Kuehler has the potential to have four above average pitches but his command has at times been spotty and is an area he’ll need to tighten as a pro. In 2023 he put together a 2.82 ERA (meaningless in college baseball) with 87 strikeouts and 24 walks in 67 innings pitched at the time of writing. There’s some reliever risk there, but this is unquestionably an intriguing arm with mid rotation upside. Who are your favorite prospects mentioned? What are other names that intrigue you with this pick? Join our draft speculation in the comments below. View full article

I'm glad you brought up the 123. They were 7-2 up, against a horrible team. Mind blowing treatment of a pitcher.

Just to be super clear and get ahead of this. I think there is exactly one guy (Skenes) the Twins would target at five. Maybe you could argue two (Dollander). I wrote about five guys because I figured y'all would like to read the profiles for the first round guys. Thomas White is the only guy I didn't write up who I think will go in the first for sure, although there are some fringy first round guys who might sneak in. Thanks all for reading and for the engagement on the Draft.

In the coming weeks, we’ll spend some time going in-depth on players who the Twins could target with the fifth pick. This week, we’re looking at pitchers. For these pieces, we’ll use the positions of players on the Consensus Board as a proxy for who they might take, as opposed to trying to predict what each team will actually do. The goal is to give a flavor of the kind of talent and options that might be around when that pick hits, as we all know trying to predict the draft is perilous at best. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp In the coming weeks, we’ll spend some time going in-depth on players who the Twins could target with the fifth pick. This week, we’re looking at pitchers. For these pieces, we’ll use the positions of players on the Consensus Board as a proxy for who they might take, as opposed to trying to predict what each team will actually do. The goal is to give a flavor of the kind of talent and options that might be around when that pick hits, as we all know trying to predict the draft is perilous at best. Paul Skenes Position: RHP, Age: 21, School: LSU, Height: 6’5, Weight: 235, B/T: R/R, Rank: 3 While Skenes being on the board for the Twins at five is unlikely, stranger things have happened in the MLB Draft. The LSU righty has had a record-breaking year, leading many to dub him the best college starting pitching prospect since Gerrit Cole (2011) or Stephen Strasburg (2009). High praise indeed. Let’s take a look at what has everyone so worked up. Skenes is a huge human, at 6’5, 235, he has a prototypical build for a starting pitcher built to throw a lot of innings. Originally a two-way player at Air Force, Skenes focused solely on pitching in 2023 under the tutelage of Wes Johnson, and boy has it paid off. Skenes throws from a three-quarter slot with a flat-angled approach and good carry on his fastball that helps it play up in the zone. He has cranked it up to 102 mph but it typically sits 96-98mph, velocity he can maintain deep into starts. It’s paired with a hellacious sweeper that has up to 13 inches of horizontal movement that he can land for strikes and generates an incredible amount of swing or miss. Skenes also has an average changeup. There’s not a fourth pitch yet although he has thrown a sinker as a second fastball. You might be inclined to think that an arm with that much raw stuff would have control or command issues. Nope. Through late May, Skenes has walked just 18 in 86 2/3 innings of work, to go along with 164 strikeouts (not a typo). There is ace upside to Skenes. Although I don’t love the idea of drafting a pitcher in the top five on principle, you do it for a special prospect, and Skenes fits that description. Chase Dollander Position: RHP, Age: 21, School: Tennessee, Height: 6’3, Weight: 195, B/T: R/R, Rank: 7 Dollander was a consensus top-three pick for the early part of the season. His fall down the rankings is due as much to the rise and dominance of Paul Skenes as it is due to his own uneven performance in 2023. So what does Dollander offer and what type of emphasis should we place on his 2023 performance? While Dollander’s production and stuff have taken a step back in 2023, he’s still an excellent/elite prospect with a ton to offer from a diverse, high-quality arsenal of pitches. His fastball sits 94-96 mph, although it’s hit 99 mph which is thrown from a low release in his three-quarters slot. It’s not an elite pitch but serves to set up his breaking pitches exceptionally well. Dollander has a curveball that is above average and has an excellent chase rate (and a pitch he can land for strikes). His best pitch is probably his slider, a nasty sweeper with a ton of horizontal movement that’s death on hitters. He also has a changeup which has a ton of fade and could be another plus pitch for him. The foundation of four pitches, three of which could be plus, is still incredibly exciting. Two challenges have plagued Dollander in 2023. He’s lost some control, walking almost double the amount of hitters than he did in 2022 at the time of writing. Additionally, his slider metrics have ticked back, resulting in him throwing the pitch less, and having to rely more heavily on his fastball. There have been a number of smart baseball folk suggesting Dollander’s challenges in 2023 are more mechanical than anything else. There’s a front of the rotation arm in there, that's already proved it over the course of the 2022 season. Hurston Waldrep Position: RHP, Age: 21, School: Florida, Height: 6’2, Weight: 205, B/T: R/R, Rank: 13 Waldrep has an argument for the best series of secondary pitches in the entire draft. Originally a relief pitcher for Southern Miss, he transferred to Florida after breaking out as a starter in 2022, amassing 140 strikeouts in just over 90 innings of work. His pitching arsenal is led by a fastball that sits 95-97 mph and has good carry to it, which helps it play up in the zone. The command of the fastball has been inconsistent and he’s been made to throw it far too much for the Gators. Waldrep has a great sweeping slider, which is a 70-grade pitch, and a whiff machine already. That’s paired with a curveball that has more 12-6 action to it. Finally, he throws a devastating split changeup that he’s been able to land for strikes at the bottom of the zone and has a whiff rate north of 60%. Waldrep’s control has been shaky (42 walks in 72 2/3 innings at the time of writing in 2023). He has a drop-and-drive approach on the mound and great arm speed but a noisy delivery. He might be the best argument there is for ignoring performance outcomes in college baseball. He has one of the most complete repertoires of any starter in the draft and a chance for three secondary pitches that are at least plus. I think he has the second most upside of a pitcher in the draft outside of Skenes. Noble Meyer Position: RHP, Age: 18, School: Jesuit HS, OR, Height: 6’5, Weight: 200, B/T: R/R, Rank: 14 Meyer has established himself as the top prep arm in the 2023 draft. Hailing from Jesuit High School in Oregon, which recently produced Mick Abel, Meyer has big projectability that will have organizations excited about what his future holds. Meyer broke out in the summer of 2022 on the showcase circuit, featuring a fastball that sat 95-97 mph, thrown from a slightly deceptive slot that gives hitters fits. He’s been up to triple digits with the pitch this year in shorter starts. He pairs it with a great slider that is generating a ton of swing and miss that he has impressive command over for a prep arm. Meyer also has a changeup that is more of a work in progress. His pitching motion is athletic and repeatable. There’s still a ton of projectability left for Meyer as he fills out more and adds strength. He has a great starter profile and teams with a track record of developing high school pitching should be incredibly excited about Meyer’s long term upside. Rhett Lowder Position: RHP, Age: 21, School: Wake Forest, Height: 6’2, Weight: 200, B/T: R/R, Rank: 15 Lowder qualifies as the highest floor, lowest ceiling member of the four top college pitchers available in July. There’s still plenty to like about Lowder’s profile however and he shined at Wake Forest in 2023, one of the college programs most noted for an analytical approach to player development. Lowder has three pitches he uses regularly. His fastball is a sinker, typically thrown in the 92-95 mph range, although he has reached back for 97 mph. He gets a ton of ground balls with it. He’s also thrown a more typical four seam fastball at the top of the zone to get hitters a different look. For secondary pitches he throws a slider, with more downward break than sweep. His best pitch is a changeup which has a ton of fade and is one of the better examples in the whole class. Lowder caps his profile off with good control and command of all of his pitches. In 2023 he walked just 17 batters in around 90 innings of work with 108 strikeouts at the time of writing. Lowder has a polished, middle of the rotation profile and is likely open to an analytically minded approach. Which of the players profiled do you like best as a fit for your team? Is there anyone you’ve read about or watched who you think is missing? Draft speculation is the best speculation, so join the discussion in the comments. View full article

Posting this for folks who are interested. Here's the Cubs version of this article (pick 13) and the Brewers version (pick 18). Some overlap of prospects written up, but this will get you through 6-8 more if you're looking for more info on potential first rounders. Really appreciate all the engagement from the 'Draft Nerds' lol. My favorite sub-community of Twins Daily

I have nothing against Wilson. I just personally feel that the Twins are in a unique position in a pretty unique draft talent wise with pretty unique financial muscle. Wilson has one skillset, elite bat to ball skills that drives the whole offensive profile. I'm sure he'll be a really good player and maybe I'm wrong and he develops power (he doesn't hit the ball that hard though), I'd just rather take a bigger swing on a potentially team altering prospect, as opposed to someone who might be a solid regular.

110 mph is his 90th percentile EV. Max is over 114, average is 90.1. All elite numbers.

Needed this this AM. Agree with all that, well, reasoned, makes a ton of sense. We haven't dug into this much yet, but as you point out, I could make a more compelling case for 3-5 college hitters slightly under slot at 5 than for Gonzalez or Wilson. I also think it's true that the Twins are usually pretty tight lipped about everything. Usually, in FA for example, when the news hits is when we know. It's so rare to have a clear top 5 like this. To illustrate the gap, Clark's average ranking on my board is 4.8, Gonzalez (who is currently consensus 5, is 9.5), that's a monumental difference that early on the board. Take any of those top five players and I'll be thrilled. No complaints.

In the coming weeks, we’ll spend some time going in-depth on players who the Twins could target with their first pick at number five. We’ll start by profiling some hitters, before looking at pitchers next week. For each installment, we’ll use the positions of players on the Consensus Board as a proxy for who they might take, as opposed to trying to predict what each team will actually do. The goal is to give a flavor of the kind of talent and options that might be around when that pick hits, as we all know trying to predict the draft is perilous at best. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp In the coming weeks, we’ll spend some time going in-depth on players who the Twins could target with their first pick at number five. We’ll start by profiling some hitters, before looking at pitchers next week. For each installment, we’ll use the positions of players on the Consensus Board as a proxy for who they might take, as opposed to trying to predict what each team will actually do. The goal is to give a flavor of the kind of talent and options that might be around when that pick hits, as we all know trying to predict the draft is perilous at best. Wyatt Langford Position: OF, Age: 21, School: Florida, Height: 6’1, Weight: 225, B/T: R/R, Rank: 2 Why would I do this? Why even entertain the idea of a prospect who would ordinarily be under consideration for the number one overall pick being there at number five? Because stranger things have happened. What were the odds Kumar Rocker and Cade Horton were selected in the top seven in 2022? So, let’s complete our due diligence. Langford is an incredibly complete college hitter. His balanced offensive profile points to that of an elite hitter at the next level. Langford erupted out of nowhere at Florida for a then-record 26 home runs as a sophomore after not playing much his freshman year. Langford has a great approach at the plate and a smooth swing. In 2022, he put up a 90th percentile Average Exit Velocity of over 110mph, the best in the nation. This, combined with limited strikeouts, a great BB%, and some of the better contact rates in the class make him as safe a bat as there is not named Dylan Crews. Langford’s other tools can get lost in the shuffle with the noise his offensive profile created. It’s plus speed and at least above-average defense with an above-average arm. He should start his pro career in center field and although he might move to a corner eventually, he’ll likely be a plus defender there. At the time of writing, Langford owns a .395/.524/.814 line with 16 home runs in 49 games. If Langford is on the board at five, the Twins would be elated. Walker Jenkins Position: OF, Age: 18, School: South Brunswick HS, NC, Height: 6’3, Weight: 210, B/T: L/R, Rank: 4 Jenkins is now the top prep prospect in the draft and has been creeping up boards and mock drafts (futile though they are) all spring. Jenkins and Max Clark have similar overall ceilings but are a slightly different flavor of prospect, depending on your preference. Jenkins' carrying offensive tool is currently power, but the hit tool is at least average, maybe above, with a chance to be plus. He’s already showing plenty of in-game power, to both the pull side and opposite field, manufactured by an aesthetically pleasing, loft-heavy swing. Jenkins has posted plus run times but will likely slow some as he continues to fill out and access his power. Even so, he’ll be at least an average runner with a plus arm. Long term, he’s got a good chance to crush 30 home runs in a corner spot. Jenkins has earned rave reviews for his makeup and work ethic. He’s currently committed to North Carolina. Max Clark Position: OF, Age: 18, School: Franklin Community High School, IN, Height: 6’1, Weight: 190, B/T: L/L, Rank: 5 Clark has been a consensus top-five prospect wire to wire. While Indiana isn’t known for being a hotbed of prep talent, Clark is as toolsy as they come. A compact left-handed swing in which the barrel stays through the zone for a long time combined with excellent contact rates combines for an exciting all-around offensive profile. Prior to 2023, Clark was largely a line-drive hitter, spraying barrels all around the field. In the offseason, he tweaked his swing to add more loft and the results have been impressive. Clark should continue to unlock more in-game power as he has good rotation and bat speed to boot. Defensively, he’s a plus center fielder and will easily handle the position in pro ball, already taking effective routes to fly balls. Clark has a plus hit tool (tough for a prep prospect), plus arm, plus defense, and maybe double-plus speed. Combine that with an outstanding work ethic and there’s a Grady Sizemore-like upside. Clark is currently committed to Vanderbilt but will likely be among the first handful of picks in July. Jacob Gonzalez Position: SS, Age: 21, School: Ole Miss, Height: 6’2, Weight: 200, B/T: L/R, Rank: 6 Gonzalez was part of a core handful of players at the top of most draft boards at the beginning of the college season, before falling a little, mostly due to the ascension of other players. Gonzalez is also a storied college prospect, having earned National Freshman of the Year honors, before helping guide Ole Miss to the College World Series in 2022. At the plate, it’s an offensive profile carried by his hit tool. There are some similarities to Brooks Lee in that Gonzalez brings exceptional bat-to-ball skills to the table. Combine that with a strong approach at the plate and you have a plus hit tool. Gonzalez has average power that a team may be able to get him into more. Currently, it’s predominantly to the pull side. The two dings you can give his offense are a lack of loft generated on batted balls and a significant drop-off in Exit Velocity for batted ball events the other way. His combination of offensive profile is going to give a team a strong floor to work with and should move fast through the minor leagues. Defensively, I don’t think he’s a shortstop long-term. Although he has an above-average arm and good defensive actions, he’s not quick and may eventually move to second or third base. Gonzalez makes sense as a ‘Twins type’, a high-floored college hitter, he should move quickly but lacks the ceiling I’d want in a number five pick. At the time of writing, Gonzalez has put together a .327/.435/.564 line with 10 home runs. Kyle Teel Position: C, Age: 21, School: Virginia, Height: 6’1, Weight: 190, B/T: L/R, Rank: 10 A strategy I’m starting to entertain more for the Twins is they take a player outside the consensus top five with their first pick. There are a few compelling reasons they might do this, not least because of their preference for college bats with a high floor and their propensity to pick players who they think can move quickly through the minor leagues. Teel checks both of those boxes and then some. Few players have done more to help themselves in the 2023 college season than Kyle Teel. A dearth of catching talent (both college and prep) and Teel’s impressive offensive breakout have him primed to be a top 15 pick, possibly top 10. Offensively, Teel projects to have above-average hit and power tools, although the former is the carrying tool currently. He has good bat speed and plenty of analytically friendly outputs of his approach at the plate. His in zone contact rates are excellent, and despite some swing and miss, Teel spoils plenty of pitches outside the zone such that he’s a tough out. Defensively, there’s work to do but he should stick behind the plate. He’s one of the best athletes in the entire college class and his excellent movement skills should help him improve quickly defensively (in addition to the ‘at least’ plus arm). Teel has put up a monster 2023. At the time of writing, he owns a .414/.480/.668 line with 11 home runs in 55 games. Also considered: Enrique Bradfield, OF (8), Arjen Nimmala, SS (9), Jacob Wilson (11), Tommy Troy, 2B (12), Chase Davis, OF (26) Which of the players profiled do you like best as a fit for the Twins? Is there anyone you’ve read about or watched who you think is missing? Draft speculation is the best speculation, so join the discussion in the comments. View full article

That board hasn't been updated since March-ish (maybe some guys have been added). Almost every other board has moved Taylor down (regression of in-zone contact numbers). Still think he has a really good profile to succeed.

Thanks for the kind words. I also, have no clue who is going to go where lol. I DO think though, given the list of names you mentioned, that someone of really good value will likely be around at 34.

Horvath is so interesting to me. Consistently rated outside top 100 but produced like a top 50 guy.

Seen quite a few threads on Dollander that suggest his issues are more mechanical than anything else. I'm anti-pitching with a top 5 pick in general unless it's a truly outstanding prospect, and i think only Skenes fits that bill.

Great point about the comp pick and I love the targets you picked out. I think Davis will be a top 15 pick but the ones you mention are great 'Twinsy' profiles.

I think Teel is going to make it a top 6 when it's all said and done. The bar for producing value is so much lower there and the fact that he can run too (doesn't steal a lot but is fast) adds more. I'm expecting chaos when we finally get to July. This time last year, we were all talking about how one of the consensus top 6 wouldn't get to the Twins and they ended up with a choice of Lee, Parada, or Collier lol

Northside Baseball, Cubs!

The Twins are in a great position ahead of the 2023 MLB Draft. They hold four top 100 picks (5, 34, 49, and 82) and have the fourth most money to spend ($14,345,600) despite having the thirteenth worst record in MLB in 2022. Plus, 2023 is one of the deeper draft classes in recent years. Let's take a look at some of the prospects available to teams in July. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp The Twins are in a great position ahead of the 2023 MLB Draft. They hold four top 100 picks (5, 34, 49, and 82) and have the fourth most money to spend ($14,345,600) despite having the thirteenth worst record in MLB in 2022. Plus, 2023 is one of the deeper draft classes in recent years. Let's take a look at some of the prospects available to teams in July. How to Use This Tool This is hopefully easy to navigate. For a full explainer on the what, why, and how, here’s the explainer for V1. For each ranked player, you’ll see position, age, ranking, school, first name, last name, height, weight, handedness (S=switch), future value (not yet), and writeup. Every top 100 player has a writeup, if you hover over the report icon for that player, it’ll give you notes on players tools, strengths, areas of growth, and recent performance. What’s New for V2? Here’s some brief notes about V2 of the Consensus Board: The rankings are based on a consensus from 10 draft boards that provide a range of evaluations from well-known industry standard boards, to more data-driven boards. I DID NOT update writeups for the players who remained in the top 100 from the beginning of May. I’ll update them a final time on a rolling basis between June and July. I added ten more writeups for prospects who moved into the consensus top 100 since the beginning of May. If you see a prospect outside the top 100 with a writeup, it means they’ve fallen out (I’m not adding new reports outside the top 100). Finally, I color coded the top 75 players to track risers and fallers between V1 and V2. Specifically: Light green - moved up 5-9 spots Dark green - moved up 10+ spots Light red - moved down 5-9 spots Dark red - moved down 10+ spots What’s Next? The Consensus Board will get one more big update, to be published at the beginning of July. Additionally, there will be updates to the notes of the most significant prospects, accounting for their end of season performance (particularly for college players), in addition to future value grades added for prospects in the final version of the board. The final rankings will also be published as articles at all three sites. I recognize that some folks may prefer to consume rankings as an article, so I’ll publish them with write ups as part of a 2 or 3 part series in the final week leading up to the draft, working to get players highlights added to those pieces. If you have questions or feedback about the process or generation of the board, please use the comments. I want readers at all three sites to feel well-informed and excited about the draft and the influx of talent to their favorite teams. Whether it's an idea to make the rankings better, catching a mistake (I’m sure there are some), or a comment on who you want your team to draft, we’d love to hear from you. Jeremy Nygaard and I will be working to provide y’all with comprehensive draft coverage as July gets closer, so let’s chop it up! 2023 Consensus MLB Draft Board V2 View full article

We’re getting into the middle of May. As such, we’re also a few weeks away from the next Consensus Board update. Several major outlets (The Athletic, ESPN, MLB dot com among others) have updated their draft boards in the last 10 days. Here are some noticeable trends surrounding how the Consensus Board is shaping up ahead of the June update. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp We’re getting into the middle of May. As such, we’re also a few weeks away from the next Consensus Board update. Several major outlets (The Athletic, ESPN, MLB dot com among others) have updated their draft boards in the last 10 days. Here are some noticeable trends surrounding how the Consensus Board is shaping up ahead of the June update. As a reminder, here’s a link to the board that was published at the end of April. 2023 Consensus MLB Draft Board V1 A Consensus Top Five I’ve been tracking the draft boards since an initial Top 30 in February. With recent updates, it’s clear that there’s currently a consensus top five players, split into tiers. Dylan Crews is in a world by himself. He’s ranked number one by every board that I use for the Consensus Board. Wyatt Langford and Paul Skenes are two and three (although I think Skenes may go number two overall), followed by outfielders Walker Jenkins and Max Clark. Long the top prep player in the draft, Clark has recently been surpassed by Jenkins, with most outlets weighing a higher hit/power ceiling in Jenkins’ favor. College Bats on the Rise I’ve written for a while that this draft is well stocked with excellent college bats. That has become more evident in the last month, with several surging up the Consensus Board. Here are some notes on a few favorites. Tommy Troy (2B Stanford) is up from 20th in February all the way to 13th currently. Troy is putting up a .669 SLG with an improved 13 BB% in the PAC 12. Kyle Teel (C, Virginia) was 22nd in March and is up to 12th overall, aided by a lack of top-end catching talent. Colton Ledbetter (OF Mississippi State) was 52nd overall in March and is now 29th. I think he’s firmly a first round talent, and he has the analytical profile to match. Jack Hurley (OF, Virginia Tech) is up from 38th in March to 25th currently One of the most aggressive hitters in the draft, he’s putting up a .781 SLG in the ACC. Chase Davis (OF, Arizona) is perhaps the most improved hitter in college baseball in 2023. He has moved up from 49th in March to 34th currently. He’s cut his strikeouts from 28 K% to 16 K% with matching contact rate improvements and is crushing the ball. I think he'll continue to rise quickly up the rankings through May and June. I think he’ll go no later than the teens if he has a strong end to the season. College Pitchers Stock Falling College starting pitching has been disappointing and a lot of it has fallen pretty sharply on the board. My current working board for June has 214 prospects on it. Outside the top handful of top college arms (Skenes, Hurston Waldrep, Rhett Lowder, Chase Dollander), there are five more college arms in the current Top 50. All but one have fallen in the past two months, mostly due to uneven production or uncertainties around health. There’s still plenty of college arm talent available though, particularly for teams picking between 35 and 50 overall. Juaron Watts-Brown (RHP, Oklahoma State), Cade Kuehler (RHP, Campbell), Tanner Witt (RHP, Texas), Hunter Owen (LHP, Vanderbilt), and Will Sanders (RHP, South Carolina) are all in or around that range, with massive UCLA righty Alonzo Treadwell lurking just outside. Depth in the Top 50 There’s a great variety of prospects and prospect depth in the Top 50 this season. There’s something to fit your profile or flavor, pretty much regardless of what that might be. With the exception of catching, which is a position of weakness at the top end, you can land great talent throughout. Which prospects are you interested in your team targeting with their first round pick? In the top 50? Join the discussion in the comments below. View full article

Good Q and thanks for reading, Cory. Don't know that there a ton of candidates that fit the bill for a move like that so far, kinda depends on how later versions of the board shake out, maybe Eldridge, but he's getting top 12 buzz now. Tbh, a lot of the prospects I'm most interested in who fit in the top 50 are college bats. My best case scenario as currently constructed would be Clark or Jenkins, followed by two college bats or college bat and best arm you like. I don't think Teel is going to go that much under slot as he's starting to get 'third best college bat' behind Crews and Langford type of descriptors thrown around. Overall, too early to say.

Typo. Thanks so much for catching that. Fixed on the board.