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CCHOF5yearstoolate

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Everything posted by CCHOF5yearstoolate

  1. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Just learned Fangraphs can actually do a huge amount of data just for this. All LHB vs. LHP in FG's database with pitcher/batter handedness (link) .241/.310/.372 for a .682 OPS compared to .261./336/.424 and a .760 OPS against RHP (78 point dropoff vs LHP) All RHB vs RHP in the database (link) .252/.313/.404 for a .717 OPS compared to .264/.333/.429 and a .762 OPS against LHP (45 point dropoff vs RHP) So lefties experience a 73% larger dropoff when facing same-handed pitching.
  2. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Here are all 17 of Julien's batted balls on the season. You can watch all of the videos and see for yourself if he was actually sprinting. I count 2 such batted balls where he was sprinting all the way to first, and I'm assuming that for the double. There's just no way he actually has 10 "competitive runs" that are truly representative of his real sprint speed. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=1ecf5065-ec49-4179-9e75-3dc90194c7b7 https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=38036597-15a4-4fca-9ab0-f69c9042b559
  3. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Julien's number is not concerning at all. When has he truly sprinted? He's either hit home runs, stand up doubles, or groundouts/popouts. There is a 0% chance he is actually slower than Christian Vazquez. This is purely early season small sample size weirdness.
  4. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    By definition missed calls alter the game. Even moreseo, when umps decide to call a ball a strike because a batter called them out for missing a previous call (this happens all the time) it completely changes the at bat which changes the flow of the game, whether you'd like to acknowledge it or not. I'm not sure why you're so dead set on conflating two completely separate arguments. Yes, the Twins could have batted better and won the game - but that's not the argument here. You're bringing that up and amplifying a conspiracy that one person said in a Twins Daily game thread for what reason? Yes, I want perfection. Everyone should! Even though the automated zone isn't perfect, it is without a doubt better than what we have now and it's extraordinarily easy for MLB to implement it. One of the most obvious no brainers out there. It will be better because we wouldn't have to deal with crap like this from Angel Hernandez any more. Which isn't a controversial thing to say.
  5. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    That's not the argument - that any single team is being singled out. That game on Saturday clearly favored Cleveland over Minnesota in a major way, regardless of their intentions to do so. MLB has the ability to remove game-altering calls like this and many more that happen every single day. It's a no-brainer.
  6. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    The sky is falling!!
  7. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    I'm going to have to find my jump to conclusions mat to figure out how you got there. Huh, I wonder if the Twins have any specific information on the builds/biomechanics of these two pitchers in their org?
  8. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Does pitching more increase stress on the elbow, or does pitching less increase stress on the elbow? Hmmm, truly a quandary.
  9. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Here's the Twins lineup from 4/4/2023. Far to early to come to any kind of conclusion.
  10. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    In other news, Marlins announced today that Eury Perez is getting TJ surgery.
  11. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Farmer is probably a better 3B, but he will start vs LHP and Willi will start against RHP. I'd rather bat Julien all the time than Farmer. Seems pretty simple to me.
  12. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    You don't think they train flexibility? Come on. And a good ball player is always going to think about scoring in a situation like that. That's what you want from a guy like Royce. Injuries are unfortunate, but this is a gigantic overreaction to what sounds like a very minor injury that is not that uncommon in baseball.
  13. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Even 15 wins would be a gigantic step forward, for much of last season they were competing with Oakland as the worst team in baseball. Sure, it's nice they signed some guys they're going to trade at the deadline but this team is still incredibly thin. 70 wins would be a success, IMO.
  14. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    I think (and hope) that Rocco will use Jax as the fireman early on in the season, rather than a strict 9th inning closer. It's quite a luxury to have Brock Stewart for that role, as his better fastball & changeup will help him deal with both sides and he seems like a pitcher who would benefit from a more structured usage vs. Jax who seems to have a rubber arm.
  15. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Twins 'Starter' fastballs, sorted by extension: Ober's fastball looks ~2mph faster than it is because of his release point. Was surprised to see Pablo so close to Ober's extension.
  16. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    I've said my piece and am not particularly interested in hitting a brick wall any further.
  17. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    If you keep saying that Keuchel was a "better option" last year then yeah it seems pretty clear what you're implying. I've been trying to say that he's a better 5th starter option than almost every other team in baseball has, the constant Keuchel discussion is irrelevant to that. You don't think it will be easier to cut playing time from Carlos Santana to make room for Brooks Lee, a guy who does exactly what Jorge Polanco does? Whether or not Carlos Santana starts the season playing against RHP is not a rebuttal to "Jorge Polanco would take away ABs from young infielders over the course of a full season." It's just not, unless you're expecting Carlos Santana to end the year with 600 PA. I take issue with "questioning" being used as a way to project pessimism compared to league-wide projections. It's an all-too-common cop out method nowadays to say "I'm just asking questions" when there's a pretty clear underlying narrative. Also, those 85-87 win projections are saying exactly what I have been saying. That Louie Varland is one of the best 5th starters in the league and the Twins are not going to struggle to replace Polanco's bat - again he's projected to be the 8th best bat in the Twins lineup. If you're not expecting that to be true, you must be expecting ~4 wins to come from somewhere else on the team to match up with the win totals. I believe if you "questioned" the Guardians and the Tigers in the same manner, you would come to a different conclusion.
  18. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    That first bolded statement is simply not true. Me questioning the motivation behind an implication that Louie Varland is worse than Dallas Keuchel clearly and obviously is not the same as saying the team is loaded and you can't "question things." I'm not acting like Louie Varland is automatically going to become better any more than you are acting like he's automatically going to be a bust. The difference is that any unbiased look at Louie Varland from the last 3 months is going to support what I am actually saying: that he's a very promising young starter who most teams in this league would gladly take to upgrade the bottom of their rotations. I'm not going to spend the time to type out full lineups. The difference is clear, Santana is a better RHB and Polanco is a better LHB. Kiriloff, Julien and Lee are better LHB who would lose ABs against RHP if Polanco was in the lineup everyday. Yeah, I think the AL Central is a horse **** division and the Twins are currently the only team projected anywhere close to a top 10 team in baseball and that they have the 3rd best odds of any team to win their division. Sorry that seems like a crazy opinion to you! Blind pessimism is not the answer to perceived blind optimism. I hit enter before finishing my comment and immediately edited it.
  19. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    "People aren't actually saying the thing I'm accusing them of saying" is wild. You're reading implications that aren't there and acting like that is some dominating sentiment here. Not sure who "Louis" Varland is but.... They clearly had a plan for Louie to come out of the bullpen in the playoffs and that was discussed for much of the summer last year. Yes, any statement alluding to saying Dallas Keuchel is a better starter than Louie Varland is full-blown ridiculous. Not sure how many more times I'll have to say that he was a rookie last year. Completely disregarding age when discussing pitching is silly. Polanco would take ABs from any young infielder. Julien, Kirilloff and eventually Brooks Lee. Santana plays a strong 1B, and will be a platoon RHB once Brooks Lee is called up, or just the 1B if Kirilloff is injured or stinks. Sorry, I just can't past the dichotomy of you saying the Tigers are going to win 12 more games than last year and getting mad at some boogeyman posters saying the Twins are a 100 win team. Neither of those things are close to reality, in the slightest. Cleveland's rotation is already injured, FYI. You are "laying out the facts" in the way that many people talk about "lies, damned lies and statistics". Here are some facts for you - Polanco is projected to be the Twins 8th most productive hitter and 90% of teams would kill to have Louie Varland as their 5th starter.
  20. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    But putting words in peoples mouths like bolded above and only projecting negative isn't realism. Polanco is a fine hitter who has had a ton of recent injuries and it would be silly to think he'll be completely healthy. He also is solidly below Royce/Correa/Julien on this team in terms of middle IF at bats. The Mariners famously had bad infield hitting outside of a blip season from JP Crawford, that's the entire reason why they traded for Polanco. Outside of JRod and Raleigh, the Mariners offense might well be a tough watch this season. This is exactly what I am talking about. Saying that Louie Varland is a worse pitcher than Dallas Keuchel is full-blown ridiculous. This isn't the first time a rookie has had a rough few games and gets sent down, and it won't be the last. It's just as ridiculous as saying "Bailey Ober was passed up by Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda" would be. Since we're talking projections, Polanco is projected at a .322 wOBA which would be 8th of the Twins starters. I have zero interest in letting a guy go for absolutely nothing after this season when he would maybe be the 6th best batter in the lineup and take away reps from young players when you can get a top 100 prospect plus some for him. I have no problem with asking questions about this team. I (obviously) don't think they're close to a 100 win team, but this division is shaping up to be a cakewalk yet again. I do have problems with overexaggerating the players and moves made in search of pure negativity.
  21. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Got BABIP'd to death in Spring Training, the sky isn't falling. 8 singles, 1 HR, 89 mph average exit velocity. Sometimes that happens in baseball, wasn't a horrific outing.
  22. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    If anything, this is making fun of the FO and anyone who thought DeSclafani would be healthy this season. News flash, pitchers get injured and it's not their fault!
  23. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    I don't think you could have made this comment more doom and gloom if you tried. Acting like Jorge is a big bopper and no comment on his recent injury history, downplaying a global top 100 prospect as some schlub, and Varland was slated for AAA for the same reason Bailey Ober was last year - DeSclafani doesn't have options and you know you're going to have to call up an MLB quality starter at some point in the season.
  24. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    This is literally the MLB Network graphic from when they put the list out a month ago for the 2024 season. https://www.mlb.com/stories/mlb-network-top-10-right-now-left-fielders I don't see any lists anywhere that have Steer in the top 10, much less #3. That would be crazy.
  25. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Where do you see that? Steer was one of the worst fielders in all of MLB last season and the Reds are doing their best to hide him in LF because CES is only fit to DH. Maybe CES would take the place of Santana, but the Twins value fielding and try not to lock down the DH spot so they can rotate guys in and out for rest. I doubt either of them would make the Twins' Opening Day roster.
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