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CCHOF5yearstoolate

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Everything posted by CCHOF5yearstoolate

  1. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    This has always been about OPS lol "The weighting is too heavy." "What are the weights and why do you think it's heavy?" "Everyone can see the weights if they want to." That's straight out of the playbook of someone who has absolutely no idea what they are talking about. Yes, we've been done for a long time since you've not once been able to describe any aspect of one of the simplest stats in baseball.
  2. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    You said they weigh home runs too heavily. You do have to be able to quantify the weight if that's your stance, as much as you'd love to beat around the bush and never back up what you're saying. The funny part is OPS is just total bases. It could not be any simpler. Almost as funny as the irony in you talking about "tough looks" after so many posts.
  3. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Not arguing for Gallo, OPS+ isn't an "arcane stat", thanks for proving you also don't understand the argument. Cute try though.
  4. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    You can say anything you want, but you should probably know what that weighting actually is if you want to be taken seriously. If you'd like to go to your grave saying 20 points is "not coming close" to an average OBP, be my guest. The fact that you can't recognize that is a separate argument from saying his 2023 was average by the numbers is getting old quickly. He produced at an average rate in 2023, and all the positive production was concentrated in April. If they'd stopped playing him in June, he would have been an above average bat on the year. Trying to take on a stat you clearly don't understand isn't helping you.
  5. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Health. I don't think Cole Sands ever had this kind of ceiling, but I could not be remembering correctly.
  6. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    It just happens. Nothing more to it. Red Sox had something similar with Nomar and then Pedroia back-to-back in the early aughts.
  7. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    This is not true. He was not cleared, and he clearly hasn't matured. Plus, he was the 3rd best pitcher on his own team last season and not in the top 10 starters in the league. No chance they sign him and they would be better off signing 10 other pitchers from that league anyway.
  8. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    You're still saying nothing about "how the variables are weighted" other than "I think it's bad because I didn't like watching Joey Gallo". So yeah, you're welcome for actually expanding on that rather than talk in circles. Gallo had a .301 OBP last season, league average was not that far off at .320. He also had a higher than average slugging % which meant ... drumroll please ... he had a league average OPS. That you can't see you're implying his April wasn't worth anything is the crux of why your argument isn't persuasive. No one has defended the Joey Gallo experiment, just that you're acting as if he did nothing good all season. It sounds like you're looking for some stat that aligns with your narrative, best of luck finding some proof for that.
  9. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    You calling anyone else an antagonistic a-hole is hilariously hypocritical, thanks for the laugh! But it's good to know you were just pulling stuff out of your rear when you tried to talk about the "variable weighting" of OPS+. OPS+ has the same 'weights' as slugging. In practice, it's not as accurate weighting because walks aren't valued highly enough. Which is why wOBA/wRC+ views Joey Gallo's 2023 even more valuably than even OPS+ does. Gallo's two offensive skills (he had a 96th percentile walk rate last season) are the reason he's still in the league after 4 consecutive sub-Mendoza line seasons. They are inarguably very valuable skills in the game of baseball. Whether or not you want a guy on your team isn't a valuable litmus test to anyone else. Walking and hitting homeruns correlates to scoring runs - that's why the weights are what they are. I'm educating you on how these stats work, that's what I'm adding here. Whether or not you choose to accept the facts is up to you. He was an average offensive producer last year. He would not have been if they'd given him 50+ more PAs. Both things can be, and are, true.
  10. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    I said "fully control" - I didn't say that pitchers don't have any control over what type of contact they generally give up. If a ball is rocketed right at a fielder, does the pitcher get credit for an out, no strings attached? If a pitcher gives up a bunt single and the LF misplays an easy popup and the runner scores, the pitcher gets all the blame? These things tend to even out over larger sample sizes like multiple seasons. I think you're overestimating how many no-doubt hits there are over a full season (other than home runs). FIP correlates much more strongly with the next season's ERA than the previous season's ERA. Wins are an extremely poor judge of how a pitcher impacts the game. Does the pitcher choose how many runs the offense scores? Jacob DeGrom went 10-9 in 2018 when he had an ERA of 1.70 All the underlying metrics, like FIP, show that Pablo's higher ERA last season was unlucky and Ober's lower ERA was lucky. I don't want this to come off like I'm trashing Bailey Ober, it's incredibly impressive how far he's come. But it's a very safe bet that Pablo outperforms him in 2024.
  11. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    If Gallo had played more later in the season, his OPS+ would have decreased because he wasn't playing well after April. You're trying to argue that OPS+ has "heavy" weighting on HR based purely on Joey Gallo's 2023 season, which is incredibly silly, and also missing that the only reason his season on the whole was approximately average is because they played him less after he cooled off/froze completely. It's pretty simple logic, really. I wonder if you can even speak to what the "variable weighting" is in OPS+? And definitely don't look up what a properly weighted wOBA/wRC+ thinks about Joey Gallo's 2023.
  12. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    It's almost like hitting HRs is good or something.
  13. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Here's to hoping on Canterino. Both 21/22 IL stints were due to elbow issues so I'd hazard a guess the UCL was a problem in both years. Maybe Tommy John will fix him up and he'll get back on track this year.
  14. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    I think the Twins were right to experiment with Martin to try and unlock some power. If you think you can turn a .280/.400/.380 hitter into even a .260/.390/.420 hitter you've gained 30 points of OPS and done very well for yourself. They also were right to abandon that approach last season and let him do his thing. A speedy utility fielder with close to a league average batting average and walks nearly as much as he strikes out is a very useful player, if not the superstar they'd hoped for.
  15. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Fangraphs and Statcast think Pablo had a significantly better year than Ober, with 4.5 fWAR to 2.4 and an xERA of 3.00 to 3.63. And that's absolutely not a dig at Ober! That puts him at 51st of 172 in fWAR (80+ IP) and 19th of 162 in xERA (approx 80 IP). Looking at xERA, the Twins are very well primed for a great 1-3 punch with Pablo at #1, Ryan at #14 and Ober at #19.
  16. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Right, baseball reference calculates WAR differently than Fangraphs (or any other WAR-provider) does. To keep it simple Baseball Reference bases pitcher WAR off of runs allowed and tries to adjust for the quality of the team defense, while Fangraphs uses Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) as the basis - which is a stat that completely eliminates defensive contribution and focuses on the things a pitcher can fully control - walks, strikeouts and homeruns. I'm of the opinion that generally FIP does a better job describing a pitchers talent vs. the luck involved with how many seeing-eye singles they allow or how good the defense behind them is. Anyway, your order is correct for Baseball Reference WAR (bWAR), but Fangraphs (fWAR) has it as such for the AL Central: Sonny Gray - 5.3 Pablo Lopez - 4.5 Dylan Cease - 3.7 Tarik Skubal - 3.3 (80.1 IP) Tanner Bibee - 3.0 (142 IP) Bailey Ober - 2.4 Cole Ragans - 2.2 (96 IP) Joe Ryan - 2.2 I included innings pitched because WAR is a cumulative stat. If you scale those WAR totals to 160 IP you'd get Tarik Skubal - 6.6 fWAR Cole Ragans - 3.7 fWAR Tanner Bibee - 3.4 fWAR
  17. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Bibee has him in bWAR (3.6 to 3.3), but Pablo leads him substantially in fWAR (4.5 to 3.0) IMO, fWAR does a much better job describing the talent of the pitcher vs just comparing results.
  18. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    All hail the best Twins fan! Everyone must bow down!!
  19. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    One word needed: Knuckleball! The sterling 2.49 ERA across 2 levels is well supported by the 16th best K-BB% (20.6%) among 272 minor league pitchers with 100+ IP last season and the 6th best FIP (3.07). He had a very high IFFB rate at 32.1% which led to an unsustainably low HR/FB of 5.9%, but he's throwing a good amount of strikes and has been limiting walks after adding velo compared to his college days. Hard to call his first season anything but a glowing success. With any prospect, but particularly Lewis, I wouldn't be surprised if he deviates from his current upward trajectory for a season - particularly given that he seems likely to come back down to Earth in home run prevention and the difference in run-scoring environments between the A+ Midwest and AA Central leagues. However, he's improved substantially after only 1 year in the system and there's plenty to like in his profile. Maybe the 2022 draft will finally start to turn the pitching pipeline around.
  20. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Pretty high ceiling for a 3rd round pick, if they can coax some more contact and plate discipline out of him he really becomes intriguing. Just turned 19 and has a lot of "can't teach that" attributes, here's to hoping the hitter development machine can also hit on Winokur.
  21. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    I've been around longer than you have, 6.5 years longer to be specific. And that last sentence is laughably hypocritical considering you started our interactions by thumbs-downing all of my comments you could find and came here to a 3-day old comment to try spouting off on me. Grow up.
  22. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Ooh, an angry little elf coming in late acting like he knows something he can't possible know for a fact. Going through my profile and pettily disliking all my comments wasn't quite satisfying enough for you, eh? Grow up.
  23. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Your entire schtick is focusing on only the few voices that support your narratives, and now you're calling your narrative a fact? This has become laughable. You are by far the least objective person I have seen commenting on the Polanco trade. I hope you can see that, because it's obvious to everyone else.
  24. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    It's crazy to me that you think you can just gloss over facts and try to push a narrative that everyone knows you couldn't possibly prove. Have you done any homework yet regarding the "many catching prospects who are blocked and easy to trade for"? All you do is make **** up and hope that sounding confident will make that BS palatable. It's very obvious you don't have a clue, and yet have this completely unfounded confidence.
  25. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Jorge Polanco played his fewest games since 2018 last season. This stuff is so easy to look up and verify.
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