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CCHOF5yearstoolate

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Everything posted by CCHOF5yearstoolate

  1. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    You contradicted yourself within the same paragraph and tried to hand wave it away. This is such a silly narrative when it is known that big-name free agents target money first and location (family) second.
  2. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Bullpen is worse off after those injuries for sure, but still pretty stacked. I've been on the Jax bandwagon for a while now, Stewart proved he's got the stuff to be a shutdown guy last year, Alcala has shined and was only taken out because of a comebacker that nicked his pitching hand, Ronny Henriquez has been under-the-radar, Okert has looked very good and it seems like they found some interesting non-roster arms in Duarte and Brigham. Losing Duran potentially until June hurts, but they've positioned the pen well to absorb that loss as best as you can.
  3. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    League-wide projections and roster analysis paints a starkly different picture of this rotation than Twins fans do. Of course anything could change with injuries, but that is true of every single team in MLB.
  4. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    I'm assuming teams have to have some homebrewed version of the trendy new "Stuff+" to measure effectiveness of pitches. As I understand these metrics it's generally a combination of (not limited to) velocity, extension, horizontal & vertical movement, spin rate and axis - and whatever else is available. I think arsenal velocity differential is used, as well. Stuff metrics tend to stabilize pretty quickly since you have so much more data - you're measuring every pitch thrown vs. 1 result per at bat. I'm guessing they also have a metric for command, essentially how well any given pitcher is able to hit the edges of the zone and probably even gets more specific with specific areas by pitch.
  5. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Right, it's a prototypical approach that gets you 3 months of awful production in a 6 month season if the guy has this much swing & miss in his game. I don't view his 2023 season as all that dissimilar to Joey Gallo - his April was better for longer and overall made a bit more contact. I like Brent Rooker, he's a great Twitter follow, but I think 1 month colored a lot of people's view on him.
  6. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    He's an OK hitter who trades strikeouts for hitting the ball hard (42nd percentile xwOBA, 228/.302/.438 slash line & 35.5% K rate after April) and a bad fielder. Seems like he's straddling the line between journeyman, or starting caliber for the A's, and someone who you wouldn't hate starting but is much better suited to a 4th OF/DH bench role.
  7. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    I'd put Willi Castro in the OF and Wallner or Buxton at DH ahead of Santana at 1B against right-handed pitching.
  8. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    This is the important takeaway from this whole saga. Byron Buxton didn't just develop a plica in the last few years, he's had it since he was 8-10 weeks old in the womb. It just wasn't causing him pain until some recent injury, but the symptoms associated with an inflamed plica are the same as other knee problems that are far more common and better understood. As I've read from actual doctors and PTs, removing the plica is closer to a last ditch effort than it is any kind of normal procedure for an athlete. It's not some medical malpractice, or laziness or incompetence on the Twins part that essentially erased Buxton's 2023 season. It's not fair, but sometimes that's just life. I can pretty much guarantee that anyone who is bashing the Twins for this has ever even heard of a plica before. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK535362/#_article-27335_s2_
  9. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Santana will play 1B against LHP because he hits lefties and Kirilloff struggles, and every once in a while if the DH spot is open vs RHP you might as well play Santana at 1B and DH Kirilloff because he's clearly not the potential Gold Glove defender that the Twins were hyping him up as 2-3 years ago. The Twins aren't stupid enough to give Santana ABs vs righties when the platoon splits are this obvious and they have better LHB options on the bench.
  10. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Quick and dirty data for starter league-wide and the Twins 2003: Starters averaged 94 pitches per game and 5.9 IP/game for 15.93 pitches/inning. Twins were 92, 6.0, 15.33 2023: Starters averaged 85 pitches per game and 5.1 IP/game for 16.67 pitches/inning. Twins were 88, 5.5, 16.0 Pitchers are throwing, on average, 0.74 more pitches per inning than they were 20 years ago. Assuming on average 4 batters faced per inning, that's around 0.18 more pitches per batter faced - or 1 extra pitch per 5.5 batters faced. Seems interesting, but fairly insignificant to me.
  11. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    What makes you say he's been "really good"? Most of this has been wishful thinking and/or pure speculation.
  12. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    That article is a good read, and it brings up a number of questions. The biggest question is probably "What is going to force the league to change?" Right now, teams have 6 years of team control on their young arms and that clock only starts once they've reached the majors - it doesn't include the years that these players toil in the minors, striving to do whatever they can to get to the majors. The teams don't really have much reason to care how much they are wearing and tearing their players' elbows, and the players don't have much choice to ignore what their team wants because they're trying to make it to the bigs for their shot at a payday. I don't know the answer to that question, but unless there's some massive shift I don't see teams straying away from continuing to optimize and stretch the limits of the human body.
  13. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Cabrera has never been on the table. He's been a global top 100 or top 50 prospect since 2020, his asking price has been sky high that entire time.
  14. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Adding 2 mph and 2 inches of vertical break to his fastball is a major leap in effectiveness. He's going from a Kyle Gibson four seamer to a Jose Urquidy/Kutter Crawford four seam.
  15. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Dobnak's contract is such a clear outlier when it comes to MLB starting pitching contracts that, to me, it seems like it only gets brought up to push some narrative about the Front Office. The length of the contract is not what the FO is avoiding. They are avoiding committing the annual salary that comes with those contracts because ownership is unwilling to spend to the level required to support a full team with multiple such contracts. There are currently 43 starting pitchers signed to 4+ year contracts. 28 of those were signed when the pitcher was either a free agent or in the last year of team control - the average AAV of those 28 contracts is $22.95M. 22 of those 28 are on the following 9 teams - Toronto (3), Dodgers (3), Phillies (3), Cubs (3), Mariners (2), Yankees (2), Nationals (2), Padres (2), Rangers (2). Very few teams, particularly outside large markets, sign these kinds of contracts. 5 years, $9.25 million is not some onerous commitment.
  16. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Edouard Julien had a 11.1% swing percentage on pitches outside the zone with 2-strikes, which was the lowest in all of baseball with 20 or more such plate appearances. His issue is whiffs, not expanding the zone. He had a lower chase rate than Juan Soto last season.
  17. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Miguel Sano's career pull rate: 45.6% David Ortiz's career pull rate: 45.4% Also, right field at Fenway is incredibly pull friendly for left-handed hitters.
  18. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Hit hard line drives is one of the oldest truisms in baseball, and yet once you put numbers to that strategy some people are willing to abandon it in an instant. Not logical.
  19. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    🙄
  20. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Why would they release him? He's not on the 40-man and the contract is guaranteed. Always been a little odd to me that people continue to pick at this contract. Less than 2 million a year for a guy who looked like he could be a decent #5 starter before injuries derailed his career. It's really not worth getting upset over at all.
  21. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    It was 7 starts when he was hiding an injury. Last game of the postseason gets unfairly held over his head in my opinion. Any team gets desperate when it's an elimination game.
  22. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Main takeaway here is that was an incredible draft from Falvey & co. Secondarily that the two picks they've done the best job developing were 13th and 14th round pitchers, which has become an undeniable trend. Noah Cardenas is looking like a sneaky good pick, too.
  23. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    With his seemingly lingering shoulder problems, I think this makes sense for 2024. It didn't seem to affect his bat too much early on last year, but the throwing motion was obviously worse and I have to imagine it only made the problem worse for him to be throwing across the diamond.
  24. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    There are some big flaws in that study, in my opinion. Look at the 1B, 2B & 3B numbers between the 2 groups: Power Hitters: 374,227 singles, 29,738 doubles, 639,285 triples Contact hitters: 1,878,545 singles, 511,302 doubles, 62,839 triples Even if the final slash lines look reasonable, those numbers are absurd and it plays into the run scoring assumptions made by the author (all movement on the bases is station-to-station except that a single always scores a man on 2nd and both runners on 1st/3rd score on a double [wait, why?]) Also interesting to note the significantly larger confidence interval from the contact group - run scoring appears more volatile from the contact hitters in this study. Normally I'd assume a power based offense would be more volatile. Anyway, we've known for a while now that OPS correlates extremely well to scoring runs. The difference in OPS between those 2 groups is over 100 points - there's essentially no chance that a .778 OPS offense is outscoring a .882 OPS offense.
  25. CCHOF5yearstoolate
    Sorry, can't resist the opportunity!
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