dxpavelka
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Everything posted by dxpavelka
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Easy to SAY that choosing an aggressive payroll strategy adds to franchise value. More difficult to PROVE that. The Padres are an interesting story. They are the closest of any team in MLB to break even. Not making money, not losing money. As fans is selling the team for the most money what we REALLY want? I thought we wanted entertaining and contending baseball. A funny thing happens when someone overpays for an asset. I worked for company once that got sold for more money than it was worth. As the seller told me (and keep in mind this was 30 years ago): If your house is worth a hundred thousand dollars and someone offers you a hundred fifty thousand dollars you sell and go buy a very nice house for a hundred twenty five thousand. I lasted four months working for the new owner that overpaid. He cut every corner he could because the underlying asset was only capable of generating revenue to make payments to the bank at a level that the property simply was not capable of generating. He overpaid because he saw a well run entity that was generating a return equal to its value. He thought he could return more by cutting at the edges. He couldn't. I left as soon as this became clear. Let's see what happens in the next half decade in San Diego. Do you think the new owner will come in with bottomless pockets and spend at the same level as the Dodgers and Yankees? Do you think that if the Pohlads had or ever sell that would happen? I'm old enough to remember when this conversation locally centered around the seller being Calvin Griffith and the buyer being Pohlhad. Fans were ecstatic that that penny pinching bastard was gone. We were rewarded with two parades in fairly short order. Do you know who the first team to sign a player to a contract paying $3 million per year was? Do you know who the first team to sign a player to a contract paying $6 million per year was? Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. The first contract ushered in an era that included the second Series win. The second contract ushered in an era of Twins baseball nearly unmatched in terms of futility. Yes, there are teams that spend like drunken sailors. Some win, some not so much. The Dodgers have been winning lately. (Doesn't hurt that they get away with gaming the system.) The Yankees SEEM to win but in reality they don't have a ring since before Barack Obama didn't have gray hair. The Mets? Clown show. Phillies? Closer to the Mets and Yankees than Dodgers. Sure the Twins might get sold someday to someone who spends more. Might not bring the results everyone wants.
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With so many guys waiting in the wings (Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Culpepper, Mendez) some decisions are going to have to be made about guys currently part of the LH hitting log jam at the big league level. Hopefully some of the answers will involve trades. Hopefully some of said trades will net players who can hit left handed pitching. These may end up being prospects but so be it. The other way, if the team wants to change the way it historically does business, might involve taking on short term contracts that might cost some money. Names to consider: Christian Walker, Randy Arozerana, Bryan Reynolds, Yandy Diaz, Jazz Chisholm, Alec Bohm, Jarren Duran, Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, Jo Adell, Jake Burger, Brenton Doyle, Ozzie Albies, Josh Jung. These are all guys who could be moved by teams looking to get MORE left handed while we are looking for the opposite, The other unconventional solution might be trading our some of our prospects for other teams right handed hitting prospects. Would the Phillies part with Aiden Miller? Maybe, but the cost would probably be Culpepper or Jenkins so probably a non starter. Ryan Waldschmidt of Arizona is a possibility. Angel Genao of the Indians but again probably at a cost of Culpepper so no gain there. Joshua Baez of the Cardinals would probably cost you Emma. These are all unconventional and potentially painful sounding types of moves but let's be honest, conventional is how we got into this situation and is probably not how we're going to get out of it.
- 15 replies
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- matt wallner
- trevor larnach
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AND Connor Prielipp is waiting in St. Paul and Andrew Morris is waiting in the bullpen. Hopefully Zebby gets right, Kendry Rojas gets stretched out and Festa gets healthy.
- 21 replies
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- taj bradley
- joe ryan
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To Matt Strahm's point, the system as ALREADY redefined what counts as a strike. Look at the box (both the ABS box AND the box that's been on your television screen for years). Then pull out the rule book and look at what the rule is about the strike zone. The top of the strike zone is supposed to be the mid point between the top of the batter's shoulders and his belt or waist line. The top of that box is seldom above the belt. I hate to come down on the side of the batters OR the pitchers but pitchers have been getting squeezed out of the top six inches of the strike zone for a long time.
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So the "problem" might not actually be a problem. Seems like that happens a lot around these parts.
- 39 replies
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- trevor larnach
- matt wallner
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We've got all these kids in the minors that we want to see and see get playing time but we're fine with getting rid of a guy but don't want him replaced with a guy that we want to get playing time? Weird. I get it but we gotta see the kids play at the big league level. Unless we think that that Martins, Larnachs and Wallners of the world are not only the present but also the future we need to see the kids.
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Let's put Sano in the grass..........
- 11 replies
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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I understand the skepticism of what happened at the deadline. But, realistically, how many of the guys they moved would have been back this year and would have been part of any future contending version of this team? Jax? His current implosion was foreshadowed by his off field implosion just prior to moving him. Timing appears right on that one. He had to go. The only two that are probably regrettable are Duran and Varland. And the return for them may well prove to make those worthwhile moves. Yes, I know, nothing is set in stone when it comes to young players. You know, there's a lot of talent on this club, Charlie. The veterans are starting to play back to form, and the rookies are developing faster than I thought; there's two or three potential All-Stars in there. I think we're a contender, right now.
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Dodging the Curveball of Commitment
dxpavelka replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Understand. But that's not really the point. The point is one potential way these things can go. A cautionary tale. If it's the right move I hope we do it in some of these situations. Just that one nagging question.- 16 replies
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- royce lewis
- brooks lee
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Dodging the Curveball of Commitment
dxpavelka replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Jon Singleton, Houston Astros, 2014: 5 years $10 million before his MLB debut. 12 years later: 160 career hits.- 16 replies
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- royce lewis
- brooks lee
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I will agree. That Larnach's value is quite evident. At this point. As mentioned in 16 (now 20) PA. As mentioned, a very very small sample size. If his production remains anywhere near it's current level by the time there is a zero behind his 20 PA I MIGHT be somewhat sold. If that bump is resulting in any or all of Walker, Rodriguez or Gonzalez continuing to wear the word Saints across their chest, probably not so much.
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I wouldn't say the the TWINS have maximized anything. I would saythat Larnach has performed. What would be more "Twins" than moving him now and having him perform up to career long expectations at his next destination. Worth noting, in 60% of the career plate appearances of the guy he replaced (Rosario) he has roughly 27% of the WAR Rosario had as a Twin. We've never adequately replace Rosario. Hope like hell the next round of attempts does so. Looking at you Rodriguez and / or Gonzalez.
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Not sure how Emma / Roden replaces Larnach / Clemens unless one of them has learned to play the infield in the last week. Someone over the weekend floated Culpepper at SS ,slide Lee to the corner and move Lewis across to 1B. Been calling for that for about a year and a half. That would decrease the need to have a Clemens on the roster. I want to see all of Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez (and probably Gonzalez & Prielipp) get major playing time this year as well and as much sense as it makes the corresponding blood letting, while fans SHOULD cheer for it, many will jeer it as an extension of last year's trade deadline moves.
- 18 replies
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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Pretty sure I do. The only question is where do YOU fall on the spectrum?
- 18 replies
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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Of course games like last night will convince rubes and TD that the 30 year old re-tread needs to be in the lineup instead of the 25 year old. Same thinking that has kept this team from developing for decades.
- 18 replies
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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If / when injuries or any other reason to replenish the big league roster come and the team brings up guys like Jenkins, Culpepper & Rodriguez instead of finding dregs like Bride, Gasper, or Helman fans will react positivity. If not, that's on the team.
- 18 replies
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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Why would trading for Tait preclude drafting a catcher if he is the best player on the board at the time you pick? It's not like most position player don't end up at a different position than the one they were drafted at. If not the Twins would have three guys playing shortstop in a few years. Do MLB rules permit such a thing?
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I get it. We all know better than the Twins how to build a roster. However, it's a long season and it is entirely possible that 6 games is NOT an indication of how anything will play out over the course of the season. I will always remember 2023. As mid May gave way to late May I remember thinking "why the hell is this guy taking up a roster spot" about a guy named Solano who had FIVE RBI to that point. Without Solano's performance from that point forward that team not only doesn't win a playoff series, they don't even make the playoffs. Rash judgements after a handful of games are laughable.
- 46 replies
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- victor caratini
- ryan jeffers
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You will notice that far more challenges are made based on the bottom of the strike zone than on the top. The real issue is that if you look at the rule definition of the top of the strike zone and the top of the ABS box they are not the same. Of course the top of the strike zone hasn't been called for years so I guess it really doesn't matter all that much. Same thing with the TV box we've been watching for years. It's never encompassed the true top of the zone.
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Ranking 2026 Twins Top Prospects By Best Fielding Tool
dxpavelka replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Would be nice if he did though.- 6 replies
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- marek houston
- kaelen culpepper
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