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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    Polanco was a very good player. But now he is almost 31, and has seen his strikeout rate increase every year since 2020. His average EV has declined every year since 2021, as has his hard hit rate. His contact rate (with the exception of a 0.1 percentage point increase in 2023) has declined every year since 2021, while his swinging strike rate has increased every year since 2020. He is not the player he once was, likely never will be again, and will probably go the Brian Dozier route—all-star caliber player in his prime who tailed off quickly upon exiting his prime. Not for nothing, but Dozier’s last truly good year was 2017, the year he turned 30. There’s a non-zero chance Polanco’s last truly good year will be 2023, the year he turned, you guessed it, 30. All that said, I would have been fine this offseason keeping Polanco, I certainly didn’t think he HAD to be gone. My post was more in response to the OP’s assertion that the Polanco trade would go down as one of the worst in Twins history, which is at this point, a comically ridiculous statement.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    1st point—the Mets don’t care at all about shedding salary. If they are trading a player, it’s to accumulate assets, not to improve Cohen’s checking balance. 2nd point—given point 1, while the Mets would have no qualms about eating Alonso’s contract AND taking back money on a veteran contract at the same time, that veteran would need to be a superior piece to Alonso. Vazquez, as one of the very worst regulars in MLB, in no way fits that description. 3rd point—Falvine have historically shown incredible loyalty to their offseason veteran signings, even when those signings are on one year deals (see Gallo, Joey). As such, I find it very unlikely the Twins invest capital in acquiring a player that would move Carlos Santana to the bench.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    May want to rethink that after his 9 run stinker last night.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    It’s a good thing the schedule is about to get easier, since the Twins are 20-5 against teams under .500, but only 13-22 against teams over .500. Here’s the problem though; once you get to October, there’s very few games against teams under .500.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    Just out of curiosity, say the Twins had $40M more to spend on 2024 this past offseason—who do you realistically think they would have signed that would have made such a massive difference?
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    The three best teams in the AL are very clearly CLE, NYY, and BAL. They have the three best records, the three best run differentials, and are the only three teams above .500 against opponents who are also above .500. The Twins are now 0-11 against those teams, and have been outscored 22-67. Only twice have the Twins kept those teams at 3 runs, and only twice more at 4 runs. Meanwhile the Twins have only put up 4 runs twice in those 11 games, and one of those times was the utterly meaningless 9th inning against CLE when they were already trailing 11-0. If this team somehow makes it to the playoffs, they will—as currently constructed—do precisely nothing beyond maybe pulling a surprise upset in the wild card round. Barring some significant roster shakeups, which we can all agree are almost certainly not coming, it’s time to start thinking 2025.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    Just to be clear, you’re referring to the same Jorge Polanco currently sporting a .595 OPS for the Mariners, and currently on the IL?
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    The 3 best teams in the AL, by both record and run differential, are BAL, NYY, and CLE. The Twins are now 0-10 against those teams, with a combined run total of 19-57. There’s 10+ weeks to the trade deadline, and if this team can’t demonstrate some sustained offensive capability, it will be time to blow some things up.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    By this point, I’m sure the sausage is rotten. As is the Twins offense. The Twins have made 81 outs since they last scored a run.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    And Julio Rodriguez went 0-4 tonight, and is now sporting a .603 OPS, more than 100 points below either Kiriloff or Julien. I suppose you think the Mariners should at least bench him, if not send him to AAA?
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    You have to think the Jets will take Bowers, and then the Broncos probably pounce on Nix, right? First 12 picks all offense. Crazy.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    Paying the Bronco/Raider tax for sure.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    Did Atlanta really just take Penix, like espn.com is showing? I am…confused.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    Jordan Reid has a new mock out on ESPN (behind the pay wall, but linked below). In it he has the Vikes trading 108 and 129 (early and late 4th rounders) along with 11 to the Falcons for 8, and taking McCarthy. He then has the Vikings moving back from 23 to 27, picking up 90 (a late third) and taking Newton, the DT from IL. Leaving aside the fact that I doubt 2 4th rounders will be enough to get to 8 (someone will be willing to offer ATL more than that, and since we don't have a 2nd or 3rd this year, and no 2nd next year it won't be hard to do that), and this assumes the Giants don't just decide to take McCarthy at 6... I'd be reasonably happy with that performance. I'm very wary of McCarthy as a guy who never had to put Michigan on his shoulders and carry them to a win. There's another guy from Michigan who had middling stats there, and did ok in his NFL career, so maybe McCarthy can do it, just never had to. I do really like the idea of Newton as an interior disruptor, which could really unlock some things. https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39983768/2024-nfl-mock-draft-jordan-reid-seven-rounds-257-picks-predictions-final
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    Call me crazy, but that might be the best overall lineup we've had this entire year other than game 1. That said, the White Sox--owners of the clear worst offense in the league--still have the top two hitters by OPS in either starting lineup. David Popkins has some kind of crazy leverage on Falvine.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    You're not capping them at 4 IP/start, but more like 75 pitches. The hope is to get 5-6 IP, but plan for 4 as the bare minimum goal. The whole idea is that you actually pitch your best pitchers MORE; Lopez pitches 40 times a year instead of 30-32, and your 5th starter is actually in the bullpen. If this strategy makes the team better, I hope the pitchers would be on board with the team winning (especially if they're getting $21M a year). When it comes to payroll, this might actually increase it, as you now need 8 guys capable of going up to 3 innings every time; while there's more of those than there are guys capable of going 6 every time, there's a lot fewer than those capable of 1. True, you might not pay any one guy $20M plus anymore, but the Twins have never done that for anyone not named Pablo Lopez. But if you're paying 8 guys $6M-$8M, pitcher payroll will not be nothing.
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    Here's an interesting topic for you! With 13 man staffs, why not move to only 4 starters, who are asked to get through only 4 innings (pitch count would be capped right around 75, which would ultimately determine the length of the start). Four relievers would be set up as guys who would pitch two to three innings every three to four days, and the remaining five relievers would be traditional one inning guys. You would allow your starters to throw harder, making them more effective. You'd have better depth, with 4 other guys who can be ramped up to starter workloads within one or two appearances. Thoughts?
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    Reynaldo Lopez is doing the same thing with Atlanta. As for Hicks, it's worked for 4 starts and 23 IP; those 4 starts include one in Petco, one against the Nats, and one against the Fish--it's not like he's run into the Braves, Dodgers, or Phillies yet.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    Oh it's absolutely realistic as a ceiling. It's not realistic as a 70th percentile outcome, and that is the true problem; the Twins have too many guys with 70th percentile outcomes at the "ok" level, as opposed to good.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    Another middle middle called strike 3. Blech.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    The Twins are paying him like he's a marquee player, in the sense that the Twins would not give him $14M/yr if they though he was only ok.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    Yeah, I thought this in 2022. I have no problem with the thought process of swiping someone from the Dodgers org, I just didn't understand why the guy they targeted was about 8th on the org chart.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    If the thought really is that Wallner is too much of a mess to be playable, then he should be sent to the east of the Mississippi and give Martin all his PAs.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    Who’s this Ideal guy; and are we sure Falvine isn’t trying to trade for him?
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    And whattayaknow, Julien watches strike 3.
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