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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    I'm at an utter loss for how both Farmer and Margot were allowed to hit for themselves.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    That's interesting to me--Castro was clearly tagged out, and then the ball came out. The ball was in the glove for the entirety of the tag--at what point is it ok for the ball to come loose?
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    Why in the world is Wallner not PH for Farmer? Posting this after his SF--yes, it worked, the Twins got the run in. But with a righty on the mound, and no outs (meaning even if CLE goes to a lefty, that lefty will have to face at least Buxton), it seems like such a no-brainer strategically to go to Wallner there.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    With the payroll limitations the Twins will have to endure for the next 3 seasons, money should only be going to actual October difference makers--that is not Willi Castro, barring the reality that theoretically any player can get hot for 15 games in October. Willi Castro will turn 28 less than a month into next season, meaning that any years you extend him for will be post-prime. With Correa locked in at SS, and Lewis/Miranda/Julien/Lee/Keaschall all younger and less expensive in the IF, and Wallner/Larnach/Emma/Jenkins all younger and less expensive in the OF, Castro is a luxury, not a necessity. If the Twins are going to actually extend one of their arb candidates, I would put Lewis/Ryan/Ober/Duran/Jax well ahead of Castro on the priority list, and probably throw Miranda and Alcala on there as well.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    According to Dot Com Tom, the Vikings have traded Andrew Booth Jr to the Cowboys for Nahshon Wright, who is also a CB, in the 4th and final year of his rookie deal (he was drafted in 2021, in the third round). Leaving aside the bizarre nature of a position for position swap, how bad must Booth have been that the Vikings wanted to bring in a player unfamiliar with their defense, who will become a FA after the year. It cannot be stressed enough how horrific Kwesi's 2022 draft was.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    Especially since this is his second driving-related issue in barely a calendar year. Supposedly KOC told him after last year's speeding issue that he needed to change, and while it sound like Addison did, it unfortunately was for the worse. If the Vikings are serious about valuing moral behavior from their players, they need to match whatever the NFL hands down, and probably get Addison some off-the-field help as well.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    I'd be very surprised if a deal gets done. The Twins have essentially no payroll space until Lopez's contract runs out after 2027 (they owe $75M to Correa/Buxton/Lopez annually for the next 3 years). Barring new revenue windfalls, or a new ownership group that is willing to risk the possibility of deficit spending, the Twins will not be able to spend to keep the current core together, much less hand out salaries well in excess of what a player could get through arbitration. The only way the Twins can possibly extend Lewis this offseason is if they decide to bet on their upcoming prospects, and unload some combination of Ryan/Ober/Jeffers/Duran/Jax. It's possible that SWR/Festa/Matthews/Camargo/Varland can do an adequate job of replacing that, along with a potential robust return in near-MLB talent from trading those 5 players. That said, I think it's more likely the Twins are about to emulate the Rays for awhile--attempting to outfit their roster with a constant churn of prospects who become solid regulars, if not stars, who are then traded with 1-3 years of team control left for more prospects; at least until the Big 3 contracts have lapsed, and that money can be redistributed.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    I hope all you guys demanding trades are happy. I would have much preferred the Twins didn't trade for Richards 😜
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    Only because you're missing the whole picture. There are plenty of teams who would gamble on the upside of Blake Snell when worst case scenario he pulls a Desclafani, never pitches, and the team in question can wipe their hands of him, after being out "only" $30M. But Blake Snell isn't opting out to get a 1 year, $30M contract; he's opting out to get 5/$150, which will be hard for him to do. I also have stated that I do believe he will opt out--I'm not opining he won't, I'm opining that I wouldn't, were I him. The reason I don't think he should walk away is because he's running out of chances to get the multi-year deal he wants, and based on the fact that he hasn't alleviated the concerns preventing him from securing that (injuries), he won't get the big deal he wants this offseason. As such, he can opt out, and probably get a 1/$30M deal--but even if it's a small risk of not getting it, it is a risk. What if he injures himself in the offseason? What if he fails the physical, and the team voids the contract? Why walk away from the sure thing, when in all probability, your best case scenario is to more or less match the deal you already have?
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    91 wRC+ as a 22 in A+. Not sad at all to be without him in the organization, I just don’t understand the move, other than I guess to say they did something.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    At first blush, seems like a puzzling move. Kinda pedestrian numbers, with not good velo ; he does have the best xERA of the last 3 years, but the worst FIP and xFIP. K rate has plummeted, without the bb rate going with it. He’s 31, does have an additional year of control, and is right handed, but with some reverse splits. Feels more like insurance in case Stewart and/or Topa aren’t healthy. If they are—Duran, Jax, Stewart, Alcala, Sands, and Topa are all superior options I think, so I’m not sure why they traded for a guy who’s 7th at best in a healthy pen, other than as mentioned, injury insurance.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    From Toronto, per MLBTR.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    Agreed--because it's a one year deal for $30M total. I don't know what that has to do with the hypothetical of the Tigers signing him this offseason, or my continued assertion that no team in baseball would want him on a 5 year $150M deal.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    This is a rather schizophrenic post. The Twins needed career years up and down the roster just to barely get a wild card spot, but also the rebuild cycle is rolling? If you truly believe what you wrote in your second paragraph (about sticking the fork in), then why would you want them to spend bullets on a lost cause? Shouldn't the play be to sell to buttress the clearly approaching rebuild, or at the very least stand pat and build in the offseason?
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    I don't know what this means.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Again, he was $90 MILLION SHORT of $150M last year, when he was younger, had just won the Cy Young, and had not been injured; the only drag on a multiyear contract he has shed from last offseason is the QO. Are you really saying that teams value the worth of the draft pick they lose at $90M? In what world does an objectively worse version of a player get a FA contract worth 2.5x a previous FA contract?
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    In the context of the original post I was responding to, Snell not opting out is not great; the poster's contention was the Tigers could replace the traded Skubal by signing Snell in FA. It's hard to do that when he opts in to his contract with the Giants. I don't doubt that he will most likely opt out; Boras doesn't get paid again until he signs a new contract. I'm just saying that seems like a pretty short-sighted move for a guy who should have very fresh memories of being unable to get the contract he wanted, while understanding that every metric except one (the lack of a QO) makes him less desirable going into 2025 than 2024.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    Might want to pump the brakes on Sims is good against lefties. In 2024 he k's 6.09/9 while walking 4.73/9 against lefties. He has a 5.56 FIP and 6.08 xFIP against lefties. The only thing he's doing well is limiting hard contact, leading to an absurdly low BABIP, so there's a ton of regression possibility there. For his career, he k's 9.85/9 and walks 5.69/9 against lefties, with a 5.00 FIP and 5.57 xFIP, so not even safe to say he's good against lefties for his career. Both Okert and Thielbar are very clearly superior options against lefties; the problem is they're not as good against righties as Sims, so once they get the one guy out, you might be stuck for 2 more batters. That said, if your goal is to improve the guy you use against lefties, he kinda has to be actually good against lefties, or do you really want Sims facing Alvarez down 3-2 in the 7th?
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    There would be no QO on Snell because it was put on him last year, and no player can get the QO twice. When I look at Snell's contract, what I see is that the Giants paid him $15M this year, and will have to pay him $17M in January 2026, regardless of whether he's on the team. That leaves $30M that he would be walking away from if he opts out (payable as you outlined above). So not $38M, but still $30M; in my opinion, that's a lot of money to say no to. Especially when you consider that he struggled to find a contact last year, coming off a Cy Young season, albeit with a QO attached. Boras tends to push his clients to bet on themselves, so I would not be surprised if the play, barring a string of great starts down the stretch, is to take the $30M, and aim for a year of health and production, then get the logical evolution of the Sonny Gray contract for 2026, say 4/$120 with a club option for $20M and $5M buyout as year 5.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    It's possible they could acquire Burnes or Snell, but it's far from guaranteed, and a much worse option than just keeping Skubal (who is also a superior pitcher to either Burnes or Snell) Burnes will have the QO on him, meaning the Tigers are giving up draft picks/international bonus money if they sign him, neither of which is the case if they simply keep/extend Skubal. They also have to negotiate against everyone, including teams with deeper pockets, like the Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers. They'll also have competition from teams that want to compete that have payroll space like the Orioles, the Nationals, and the Cardinals. For Snell, there's no guarantee he's even available. He has an option in excess of $38M for next year, after which he can hit UFA with no QO attached. Is a guy who spent a good part of the year injured, and currently sporting an ERA north of 5 really going to say no to almost $40M? Even if he does, he's 4 years older than Skubal, and is so injury-prone he makes Royce Lewis look durable. Again, if the Tigers want to compete, why would they want to get older, worse, and more injury-prone? I'm also not debating if the Tigers want to compete immediately. I'm saying no team that wants to remain competitive is trading Skubal, unless they're getting a package along the lines of Henderson and Rutschman in return. As such, Skubal's movement is a litmus test for how the Tigers view their future; if they want to compete, he'll stay in the Old English D. Therefore, if he is traded, the Tigers aren't trying to compete in 2024 or 2025.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    I have to quibble with the idea that the Twins could pass the Vikings for popularity with a deep playoff push. I think it takes at least a WS title, and maybe more than one for the Twins to permanently unseat the Vikings as the most popular local team. I also agree with Nick--moves around the margins don't interest me, especially because you aren't guaranteed to avoid a Dyson or a Mahle, and one of the best ways to help the "young" core is to continue to replenish from within. As I've mentioned in other posts, Jeffers, Lewis, Larnach, Ryan, Ober, Jax, and Duran will all be in arbitration next year (as will Castro, Stewart, and Topa); that's more or less the entirety of the young core, and with the likely plummeting in TV revenue ahead, the Twins will not be able to keep all those players unless they can figure out how to offload Correa and/or Lopez. As such, keeping players like Festa, Matthews, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Lee, Keaschall, etc. is paramount to keep the team relevant, unless you really want to shoot your shot in the next 3 years, and spend the next half-decade reliving the 2010's
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    The Tigers want to remain relevant, and they're going to do that by trading away a top 5 starter in MLB under team control for 2 more years for one established but nowhere-near-as-good starter, and 3 prospects? Keep in mind the Tigers only have $52M in payroll commitments next year, and under $30M in 2026 and 2027 (most of which is Baez, which ends after 2027). If the Tigers actually want to remain relevant as you claim, I imagine they would much prefer to extend the sure(ish) thing in Skubal for say 6/$200M, buying out his last 2 years of arbitration.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    If the Tigers are trading Skubal (indicating they don't intend to compete next year, and potentially not in 2026 either), why would they want Ober, who has only one more year of team control than Skubal? You're much more likely to have to give them Matthews or Rodriguez.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    Or SWR is going to spend a couple weeks on the IL with "arm fatigue".
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    What are the possible signings the Twins could have made this offseason? To match last year's payroll, they would have had $28M available, but keep in mind their revenue is absolutely down. Also keep in mind that the team is already at $90M for 2025, across only 5 players, and will have to give significant raises through arbitration to Jeffers, Lewis, Castro, Larnach, Ober, Ryan, Stewart, Jax, and Duran. If those players average $3M each, now the payroll is at $117M, leaving the Twins only $33M to pay 12 players, an impossibility if they committed $25M beyond 2024.
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