Cap'n Piranha

The 2022 Vikings got a lot of wins, by very low margins. It did not end well.

Sam Darnold has career earnings of $65M, and won’t turn 28 until next June. If he’s accepting a 3 year contract, it’s going to be someplace that will allow him to continue to be successful, and get another contract for his age 31 season, since he doesn’t need to break the bank now. I think that Darnold would rather take a 3/$100M contract from the Vikings than 3/$150M from the Raiders, or Giants, or Titans, or any other team desperate for a QB. The only question left is if KOC/Kwesi want to stake their future on Darnold instead of McCarthy (if given the option).

At the end of the day, the Vikes stack another win, the offense shows up when it needs to, and the defense does just enough to hold on. Playoffs are pretty much a lock at this point. That said—the things I’ve been talking about for over a month are now far too obvious to ignore. With all the offensive weapons we have, KOC still can’t produce a consistent offense, just brief flashes of competence. I don’t know if there needs to be some self-scouting done, if we need a massive injection of OL help, or if this is just what a KOC offense is. Either way, something is going to have to change for this team to be a serious Super Bowl contender.

San Fran, as in the 5-6 team last in its division, with a 0 point differential, lost by 28 yesterday, and is 11th in the NFC—that San Fran? Indy, the team that’s 5-7, 9th in the AFC, and has a -32 point differential—that Indy? There are playoff teams, and then there are teams that get into the playoffs; they are not the same thing. The Vikings have played 3 teams currently in playoff position (also the only 3 teams they’ve played with winning records), and had a complete game against one, lost a close game against another (despite being at home coming off a bye when the opponent wasn’t), and got pretty fortunate to hold on to win the third. The Vikings can only play the teams on their schedule, and they’ve done a great job for the most part this year in getting wins; but they’ve looked shaky doing it (only a +1 point differential since halftime of the GB game). I don’t know what happened at halftime of that game; maybe KOC held a black cat while walking over a mirror under a ladder opening an umbrella while saying Candyman three times. But the first 10 quarters this team played had them looking like a Super Bowl contender. The last 34 quarters have looked mostly like a team that won’t get past the divisional round without a giant horseshoe. Given the 3.4x bigger sample size, I’m inclined to believe the more recent form is the more realistic form.

Now put KOC on a list with Reid, Tomlin, Lafleur, John Harbaugh, Shanahan, and McVay--how does he rank then? Or did you just try and make a point with cherry-picked data? The fact that every other coach hired in the same offseason as KOC has been mediocre at best, but mostly awful, does not mean KOC is good. Also, no one is claiming KOC is awful, myself included. I've claimed he's not as good an offensive coach as a lot of people want to think, based on the statistical reality that he has yet to produce a consistent top-10 offense. Your whole post is nothing but a windmill tilt.

Careful saying things like that. Nick, Gunnar, and Leviathan will all engage in personal attacks on you without refuting a single point you make for daring to challenge the genius of St. O’Connell.

I'm well aware of the different responsibilities of a GM and HC (who also runs the offense). But if you honestly think that KOC doesn't have immense input in roster management, especially on the offensive side of the ball, then it's actually you who doesn't understand how NFL rosters are built. Do you really think that if KOC was adamant he wanted Kirk at QB, Kwesi would have still refused to keep him here, especially since cap space is not an issue? The fact that Kirk isn't here strongly suggests that KOC was not that interested in keeping Kirk around, and was completely fine with having Darnold and an unpolished rookie as his QBs. On the other hand, if Kwesi is completely ignoring KOC's input on personnel, then we have a huge issue, and one of the two needs to be fired yesterday. I'm not saying I want Kirk either--I'm saying Kirk is a better QB than Darnold or McCarthy, and would give this team a better chance to win in the playoffs. While I don't think that's a clear shot at a Superbowl, no one in their right mind thought that Darnold/McCarthy gave the team a better shot than Cousins. And given that reality, why are the Vikings acting like this is the year to push chips to the middle with FA contracts and pillaging future picks?

No goalpost moving man--I was clearly wrong about how bad this team would be, since I thought they would win 6 or 7; they're already there. What I'm talking about now is concerns about the offense (which I can't help but notice you didn't respond to, which suggests you have no arguments disputing that), and how the poor performing offense limits this team's ability to win a playoff game, let alone compete for a Superbowl. That's actually 100% consistent with what I said in the offseason--I didn't think the offense would produce enough to offset any defensive improvements. You should stop using analogies if you don't understand what they mean. I've demonstrated with stat after stat after stat that right now the Vikings offense is not good. You've demonstrated with your hurt feelings, inability to understand analogies, and statistical illiteracy that you're not capable of any level of analysis. That's why you downvote pretty much every one of my posts, and yet almost never respond to them. When you do, you don't actually address any point I've made, but spout random accusations about me, rather than what I've said. So let me issue a challenge to you--just once, respond to what's actually in one of my posts without resorting to broad dismissals of me as a poster.

I don't hate him, he just hasn't shown an ability to consistently produce a top 10 offense, game in and game out--the exception is 2022, when the vast majority of snaps went to players he inherited, and when the offense had more or less spent the entirety of the Kirk Cousins era as a top 10 offense. KOC's offense is producing pretty much like the Stefanski/Kubiak offenses, and I'm not going to credit KOC as some great offensive mind for that. Given that everyone else hired in 2022 is dreck, saying KOC is the best of that is like saying he's the tallest midget or fastest snail. Don't get me wrong, I have much more disdain for Kwesi than KOC, but if a new GM is going to want to hire his own guy, that makes the price of having KOC keeping Kwesi. I am not willing to pay that price.

They hired a competent GM, a competent coach, and a top-flight OC. Contrast to the Vikings awful GM and mediocre coach (who is also a mediocre OC).

Said it before, I'll say it again. When your first draft is as bad as Kwesi's first draft was, you can't keep him around for a third draft unless his second draft was truly great. Kwesi has proven he cannot draft well and we should stop letting him continue to prove it. Barring a big-time turn around, and conspicuous contributions from drafted players, Kwesi has to be either demoted, or more likely fired, at season's end.

I tried to warn y'all after the Rams game--there are some real issues with this team, and as excited as we all were after the 5-0 start, the team that has shown up for the last 5.5 games gets eviscerated in the playoffs against any semi-decent team. Last 11 halves--8 TDs (after 13 TDs in the first 7 halves). 96 offensive points in the last 11 halves--17 points/game. That's one third of the season now playing like a bottom quartile offense; even on the full season, the Vikings are now down to 14th in offensive PPG. Darnold is absolutely what killed the offense yesterday--all the hopeful vibes from last week's second half are gone. And for anyone who wants to use Darnold as an excuse to cover for KOC, keep in mind that the Vikings could have kept Kirk--they chose not to. The plan at QB this year, in a year they were planning to compete, is Sam Darnold and a rookie who threw the ball less than any non service academy QB in the NCAA. Not a great plan, as it turns out.

I look forward to the Vikings O continuing to shake the rust off, a process that started after halftime last week. If the offense doesn't get close to 30 on Sunday, it's definitely time to adjust the expectations for how far this team can go in the postseason.

And had we not traded 6 picks for the right to draft Dallas Turner, we could have had Lattimore. If quality veterans are going to continue to be available for (seemingly) bargain prices at the deadline, hollowing out future drafts becomes a pretty risky proposition.

Go look at the CB depth chart, and then let me know if the team is actually set up well. Also, a fair amount of that set up is dependent on JJ being Kirk Cousins, rather than Daniel Jones. I have optimism, but if JJ is not quality starting NFL QB, we'll be pretty bad in 2025 and probably 2026.

The officiating guy on NBC was pretty adamant that it was clearly a flag. I agree with Leviathan that so long as the face mask isn’t grabbed, and the contact to the head doesn’t appear to be deliberate, incidental contact to the head should not be a flag. On the play in question, Darnold is changing where his head is, you can’t expect the defender to react that quickly. But to state it again, under current rules, it’s a flag, and it should have been called. I can buy the refs missing penalties, there’s 22 players on the field moving at high speed, and only like 7-8 officials. But how illegal contact gets missed on the QB is beyond me; there should be at least 1 set of eyes on him at all times.

Darnold absolutely had two terrible throws—that first pick was about the worst INT I’ve ever seen. That said, outside of those two mistakes, he was 28/32 (that’s 87%) for 290 and 3 TDs, with a 107.1 rating—that’s essentially his rating for the whole year (107.2)—which is 5th in the NFL, barely behind Josh Allen, and ahead of Jayden Daniels, who supposedly is going to compete for the MVP. Those terrible decisions need to get cleaned up, they will be much more costly against better teams, but Darnold was not the problem tonight.

First, and most importantly, it’s a win. Second, as bad as the offense was in the first half, there were some bright moments in the second half. I thought running tempo was a great strategic move by KOC, it clearly gassed an Indy D-line that was just thrashing our OL. Clearly, we just need the offense to play every game like they’re trailing in the second half against the Colts. Third, I give most of the credit for the win to the defense, which needed a bounce back in the worst way (giving up 29, 17, 31, and 28 in their last 4 games). Didn’t get much pressure until the end stages, but still kept the Colts out of the end zone, and really didn’t let them get much going. Finally, let’s hope this washes the bad taste, and we can get to a 3 game win streak against two pretty terrible teams, and get to 8-2. 21 is still not a great total for offensive output, and the offense’s ability to be ineffective and explosive all in the same game is still maddening, but the 2nd half can be built off of. Oh, and please please please prioritize interior OL in the offseason. If any of Brandel, Bradbury, or Ingram are starting next year, the cap space has been wasted.

I think the Twins would be open to trading Correa, I just don't think there's any team out there willing to take on his contract given his injury concerns. I think Correa would be willing to go to a team like the Yankees or Mets or Phillies in order to compete for titles, but again, are any of those teams going to give the Twins anything of value, especially considering that they seem to highly value Correa for his contributions beyond during games? Castro to me makes a lot of sense; projected at almost $7M this year, hitting FA next year (and there's no way he's getting the QO), and would be highly valued by teams that want to contend as a flexible depth piece.

Trading from your core alters the future because it more closely aligns the team's prospect waves with the probable competitive window. In Lewis' case, he's entering his first year of arb, and if he produces like he has at stretches when healthy, he'll get $12-$15M in 2027, and $20M in 2028. That's a hefty price tag only 2 years away, especially if the Twins do think they need to do a soft-rebuild; if someone is willing to give you a couple top 100 prospects that figure to debut in 2026 or 2027 (keeping in mind the Twins don't shed Pablo's contract until after 2027, and Buxton/Correa until after 2028), that might be appealing. That said, I'm not convinced the Twins do need to do a rebuild; there's a lot of intriguing young talent that could debut over the next two years (Jenkins, Emma, Keaschall, Raya, Morris, Soto, CJ Culpepper, and Gonzalez). If you can get some of the young(er) players to rebound (Julien, Lewis, Miranda, Lee, Varland), or continue their positive trajectories (Wallner, Larnach, Matthews, Festa. SWR), that's 18 players, only two of whom are in arbitration currently, and only one will join next year. Adding that to Lopez, Correa, Buxton, Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, and Sands is pretty much a full 26 man roster (only missing catchers) that could absolutely make some noise in October. On the other hand, if the young players don't rebound, and2024's rookies stall out like 2023's did, and injuries continue to sap the team of production, trading much of the current team to turn your list of 8 close to the majors prospects into 12-15 close to the majors prospects might be the best route to take. If you can trade Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, and Lewis for 6-10 Top 100 prospects, the team will be truly terrible in 2025, and probably 2026. But 2027 could look an awful lot like 2023 did for the Orioles.

The Twins will only make a roster-altering trade under a few, specific, circumstances; Massive payroll relief. Just trading Vazquez doesn't alter the roster, so there are only 3 players that qualify--Correa, Buxton, and Lopez. The return is simply too good to pass up, like the Mariners offering Emerson and Young (great law firm name) for Wallner, for example Falvey thinks he can replace the traded player more or less from within due to depth; this would likely mean an infielder or a starting pitcher Out of these 3 possibilities, I think Ryan, Ober, and Miranda most closely fit the bill for checking at least 1, and maybe 2 buckets.

And you’re still engaging, through a downvote. You just can’t help yourself it seems. I presume you have nothing to say in response—why not just admit yourself incapable of defending the ridiculous claim you advanced, that somehow I’m in the wrong for controlling the data to be applicable to the point I’m making? Self accountability and personal growth is your friend, mon ami.

Noticed you engaged again 😉 I expressly said “I will retract”. Go back and read the post if you don’t believe me. If someone saying “I will retract” doesn’t count as a retraction, I don’t know what does.

Are you calling me a liar? This is a shocking lack of empathy from a moderator, whose role is supposedly to maintain civility. At minimum you could have just let this point go. Alternatively, you could have done the decent thing, and said, “that sucks, hope everyone’s feeling better, would have been interesting to get your thoughts during that 5-0 start”. I never said Darnold was going to make this offense a top 5 unit. My offseason post that you brought up actually proves the consistency of my stance. I didn’t have faith in KOC to coordinate a top flight offense, and didn’t understand why he and Kwesi wanted to be rid of Kirk if they wanted to compete, given how much worse the offense was last year, due at least in part to not having Kirk. To start the year, the offense looked decent against NYG and SF (21 and 23 points), then phenomenal against HOU and in the first half against GB (34 and 28). Since that time, something has changed; the offense that scored 62 in 90 minutes against HOU/GB has now scored 62 in 210 minutes against GB/NYJ/DET/LAR. As I’ve said through this entire thread, which everyone responding to me seems to be ignoring, I hope KOC can right the ship. But there is more evidence in this season now to support the idea that KOC’s offense will score around 20-23 points a game—that is not top 10. The whole point of my post you dredged up was to say I’d rather rebuild than watch the team go 10-7, maybe win a wild card game, and then be bounced by an actual championship level team. There’s still time, quite a bit in fact, for this last patch to be proven a mid-season doldrum. It better, because historically speaking, KOC has not been the best at closing out seasons strong.

Check my last post, where I retracted my statement that was (just barely) inaccurate. I’ve never been dismissive of valid points. You however have been adamant about including invalid points. You’ve never once approached any of this in good faith. You’ve mocked me multiple times, accused me of doing things I didn’t do, and obstinately refused to concede a single point, simply ignoring objective evidence in order to blast the motives that you ascribe to me, despite their utter detachment from reality. You continue to claim you don’t want to engage, and yet you’ve responded to every single one of my posts. Be intellectually honest, at least once in this thread; you’re delighted to continue to sit on your self-made throne and declare who is and who isn’t posting responsibly. Perhaps you’d like me to stop, so you can feel vindicated in getting the last word. But if you actually don’t want to engage, you won’t. Simple as that.