Eris

The biggest challenges facing the Twins is that they have constructed a roster of too many players who are too frequently injured. Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Miranda. There is a limit to the number of capable backup players that can be on the 26 and 40 man roster. Some is bad luck (Lewis) some were active decisions (Correa, Buxton). The second half of the 2023 season dominated by Wallner, Lewis, Julien and to a lesser extent Miranda perhaps gave unrealistic expectations of future performance—bad defense is okay if Julien can hit 0.300. For about last decade or so, the Twins have been near the top of the league in % of runs scored by HR. They have achieved this by emphasizing hitting over defense and increasing power by increasing strike outs. I think one of the challenges with this approach is that high K% hitters are more streaky and also more effectively neutralized by good pitching.

Ultimately the solution involves some combination of having the SP throw 6 or 7 innings (a stretch considering only Lopez is reaching 5 innings per start) or having more than 1 reliever who can throw 2 or more innings. Looking at todays game which burned through 8 pitches, both Sands and Varland could have been expected to throw multiple innings—possibly Jax as well.

I think that with a Torpedo bat, a player should be able to generate more bat speed vs an equal weight normal bat s the center of mass is closer to the hands. A player could also use a heavier Torpedo bat and retain that same bat speed.

Very interesting article. Some, but not 2 inches of height difference, can be explained by measuring in bare feet vs with cleats.

@Richie the Rally GoatThank you

I’m am struggling to understand the rationale for terminology used on MLB.com under Transactions. For example, on 3/20, Javier Roman was assigned to the Minnesota Twins. There are many such transactions. What does this mean and why. Using more descriptive terminology such as being “assigned to the minor league camp”, or being “assigned to a specific minor league team” would convey meaningful information.

Castro had -9 DRS at SS last year. His shortcomings are very exposed when he has to play SS on a regular basis.

I think DaShawn Keirsey over Marlot (-0.2 fWAR, 79 WRC+) would have been preferred. At least we would know if Keirsey is an MLB 4th outfielder who can play an acceptable backup CF. Not knowing this has led to Bader with Keirsey still on the 40 man roster. Agree that they had no internal options at 1B.

1 OF OAA = 0.9 runs. I would be curious to know how this translates to wins and losses https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/fielding-run-value

There are many Matt Canterino’s in baseball, unfortunately. It has become the nature of the game.

The challenge the Yankees face, and to a lesser extent the Mets, is these teams have very depleted farm systems and have little to offer the Twins for Lopez, Ryan or Ober. Agree with @chpettit19that this would need to be a Chris Archer type trade.

Hmm! I’m glad he’s pitching well but Dobnak has thrown 135 innings in the majors. I don’t think he meets the Sire criteria.

Jefferson Morales is having a good camp. I am not finding much out there about him. He has been in the Twins organization since 2016 but seems not to have made any of the TD prospect rankings

Agree with the article that only Correa and Lee provide MLB quality defense at SS. I think Lee’s downward slide in hitting last season was due to his back injury.

Just for completeness, the Suns have traded their first round draft pick thru 2032. In some cases they have a swap where they have swapped first round picks for whichever is worse (which could mean retaining their original pick).

Luis Gil out for at least 3 months (sorry not being allowed to post a link, article is from the NYPost)

The challenge here is that the statistics are accumulated over an entire season or more and having a player who has a higher K% because of trying to achieve more power will statistically result in more runs over this period . The metric being used is the number of runs scored, not how many times a run scores. In the playoffs, or in the case of a specific desired outcome, e.g., 2 outs with a runner on 3B and team needing 1 run. In this scenario, most people would prefer to have Ichiro Suzuki or Joe Mauer at the plate as compared to Aaron Judge because the probability that a runs scores will be higher with Suzuki or Mauer. However, were this situation to repeat itself 20 times, it is quite likely the Judge will drive in more runs because some of his hits will be home runs. There are also situations where the opposite is true, Where a HR is needed an the player most likely to achieve that strikes out almost 40% of the time but hits a HR every 12 at bats

Bader was signed because the Twins have a Buxton problem. No one is expecting Bader to hit, but the Twins need a backup centerfielder who can play 80 games or more a year in Center. It is very hard to have two starting caliber centerfielders on the roster, as each would like to be paid like a starting CF, hence the need to compromise either on offense or defense. In 2023, the Twins got lucky with Michael Taylor having close to one of the best years of his career. Not so much in 2024 as the backup outfielder Manuel Margot couldn’t hit or field. This year we hope that Bader recovers from his 3 year slide. Hope is not a good strategy. The backup to the backup appears to be hoping that Austin Martin can play a serviceable CF. Hope is poor situation to be in. Let’s hope that Buxton can play 140 games in CF.

Upgrading the Twins is really hard as the Twins are an above average team offensively, but below average defensively. It is not just one position, it is across the field. A major issue that does not have an easy solution is too many players are injury prone (Buxton, Lewis, Correa, Miranda, and possibly Lee). 2B was an issue last year, but not because of personnel as putting Castro or healthy Lee at 2B would have solved the 2B problem. Having both Wallner and Larnach in the outfield poses defensive issues. One of them needs to learn how to play 1B and the other needs to be traded if you want an outfield that is above average defensively. (Adding Rodriquez, Jenkins and possibly Keaschall substantially changes the OF discussion ) At C, Ryan Jeffers has been too slump prone to be counted on as full time C and it is the one position where the Twins do not good organizational options. I don’t see the Twins as being one player away from advancing further into the playoffs and therefore I would not be trading any SP to improve a position. Likely the Twins will need acquire a C for next year and it is probably necessary to include pitching in a trade that substantially upgrades the catcher position. As an aside, taking into consideration my opinions and other TD writers, the Twins have a future log jam at 1B with 1B possibly being the most suitable position for Lewis, Julian, Larnach, Miranda, and Wallner. The FO solution is to bring in Ty France. Any potential trades should focus on clearing this future log jam at 1B. The challenge is that among those listed, only Lewis and Wallner are likely to return value that this time which means they should also be retained as being most likely to be future contributors.

What does it say about a player when trying to improve against left handed pitching, his swing is messed up for an entire year. Roster spots are at a premium, how many players can a team carry that need to platooned. Maybe the learning here is that high K% hitters are inherently limited. (Or are more prone to longer periods of under performance. Even Aaron Judge was effectively neutralized for much of the 2024 playoffs).

This is good read. Thank you. Finally a top prospect (2 including Walker Jenkins) who don’t strike out 25 - 30% of the time.

This article raises some interesting points. I generally don’t get the Ty France signing. I think if Lewis continues to be below average at 3B he needs to be moved to 1B. The Twins are tracking towards having below average defense at all positions except SS, CF, and possibly C. Where several or fewer preventable losses is the difference between making the playoffs or not, I don’t see how their defensive alignment is going to be a winning formula.

Putting Castro at 1B strikes me as poor use of defensive skills. Castro (and possibly Lee) are likely the best defensive 3B on the team. The 7 players behind the pitcher should be positioned to maximize defensive efficiency. A factor that complicates this assessment is that both Lewis and Miranda have been hurt over the past 2 years. So it is possible that they are defensively better than their past results. An additional factor that complicates these decisions is that Miranda and Lewis’ long term value is more limited if their primary position is 1B.

Power hitting first baseman with defensive liabilities are a dime a dozen. Casas so far has put up 1.7 WAR in his best season. Any GM who trades Ober or Ryan for Casas should be fired.

Baseball really misses opportunities to market itself to young audiences (the future). Too many playoff games are on cable and they start and end much to late to have younger audiences watch the game.