chpettit19

I wouldn't bet on Wallner having more speed. They're probably pretty close. Gallo is 46th percentile in sprint speed. Wallner gets pretty universal 40 grades on his speed which means he's actually probably slower than Gallo. Wallner gets mostly 40-45 grades on his defense (fangraphs actually has him at a 30, yikes) while Gallo has 2 gold gloves. Wallner is not a good defender and not even in the same league as Gallo.

Your point seemed to be that he may consider picking up his player option because he's having a "substandard production" season, and thus wouldn't be able to get a big contract on the market. If I misunderstood what was meant by "the other "insurance" his current contract provides is against "substandard production" I apologize. But he won't be chasing AAV this offseason, he'll be chasing total guaranteed money. I provided some statistical examples of why he has every reason to believe he's going to be able to blow 2 years and 70 mil out of the water. Marcus Simien was entering his age 31 season when he got 175 mil last offseason. He'd only topped 100 in OPS+ twice in his entire career, and is only at 102 this season. He got 100 million more than Correa currently has locked up despite now being a 2B and being a worse hitter. It'll certainly be interesting to see how Correa's market plays out, but the decision to opt out doesn't seem all that interesting. Either he's hurt and picks up his option since he won't play a whole season next year, or he's opting out. His production absolutely warrants a massive contract, and he'll get it. AAV likely won't be 35.1, but total will be much bigger than 70 mil.

They can still negotiate a long-term deal, but Correa and Boras can't say "hey, we have 7/220 from Team X so you guys need to beat that." He gives up any chance to create a bidding war by picking up his option. Why would Correa and Boras want to do that? Correa didn't fire his agent last year and sign up with Boras just to try to negotiate from that position. Correa signed up with Boras to let Boras do his thing, and that's find him the best deal he can.

Correa has a 125 OPS+ this year. He was at 131 last year. 127 is his career OPS+. wRC+ numbers are 124 this year, 133 last year, and 127 for his career. Corey Seager's career wRC+ is 131, and he's significantly worse defensively, and he got 10/325 last year. I'm just not seeing these arguments that his value has tanked. Maybe he doesn't get 10/325, but he's going to get significantly more than the 2/70 he has in his back pocket right now. He has no financial reason to opt-in unless he gets hurt. This isn't "substandard production."

The SS market will be fascinating again this offseason. Early guesses would be that Turner returns to LA and Swanson returns to Atlanta, but there's no guarantees on either of those. I think the Yankees postseason performance will dictate a lot of their offseason strategy. If they flop in the playoffs I wouldn't be surprised at all if they take a swing at any of the big 4. Volpe isn't exactly lighting the world on fire in AA, and they've been without a championship for way longer than they like to be. Does Boston decide they want improved defense at SS and are willing to let Bogaerts walk to make a run at Correa? Is there a surprise team like the Rangers last year who just say "f it" and sign a big named SS even when the rest of the team doesn't look to be ready to compete? Are the Cardinals ready to move on from DeJong and are willing to pay Correa to pair with Arenado for the best defensive left side in baseball? Will be fascinating to watch how a lockout free offseason plays out for this SS class. Correa hired Boras for a reason and we're about to see why.

Barring injury, I don't see any reason whatsoever for Carlos Correa to pick up his player option for 2023. All picking up that option does is guarantee that he has no ability to negotiate with other teams. Why would the Twins be willing to pay what he wants if he opts-in and he can't negotiate with anyone but them? Opting out doesn't automatically mean he signs somewhere else, but it gives him leverage, and the ability to chase far more than $70 million. Correa, and Boras, are good at playing the PR game, and saying the right thing. But there's no chance he's picking up his option unless he has a catastrophic injury before the end of the season. There has never been a chance he's going to pick up his option unless he suffered a catastrophic injury this season. Those players options were nothing at all except injury insurance for him. And the Twins knew it the day they signed that deal. The FO is not waiting in anticipation of his decision. They know he's opting out. I don't know if he'll get $300 mil this offseason, but he's going to get way more than $70 mil. It'd be nice for him to stay with the Twins, but it won't be on his player options.

You're right, that '09 team didn't fall 5 games back until September 3rd. Then 6 games back September 4th. Then 7 back on Sept 6th when they were sitting at 68-68. I did get my years wrong on the other one, though. It was 2006 that they were way back to start September. They were 6 back on September 1 that year, and in 3rd place. My point is the same, though. Giving up on the season when they're 2 games back on August 23rd is silly. They were 7 out, and in 3rd place on this date in '06. And 4.5 out, and in 3rd place, on this date in 2009. In fact, in 2009 they were not only 4.5 out on August 23rd, but they were 2 games under .500. According to some on this thread they should've shut injury prone Joe Mauer down on Aug 23rd, 2009 to save him for 2010 since they had no shot at the division.

It might not matter. But that wasn't your stance. Your stance was that it wouldn't matter so don't even risk it. My stance is to give them a shot with their best players. Now if his hip is never good enough to come back this year then none of this even matters. But if they're still mathematically in the race when he's healthy again I'd bring him back and see what he can do.

My point is they don't even need to play drastically better to be in the fight. They haven't been good for 80 games yet they're still only 2 games back. That's the point. They don't need to have Buxton, Correa, and Polanco turn into MVPs or have Larnach come back and blast 12 homeruns in 3 weeks to win the division. They aren't playing well. Not arguing that at all. They're still in the fight, though. So why shutdown your best player in the name of 2023 when you blindly hope they'll be better than 2 games out by August 23rd?

You came on and responded to every single comment in the thread that slightly suggests the Twins shouldn't quit on the season. I'm responding to the 2 people responding to me. Isn't this the entire point of the comment section on Twins Daily? They've been a bad team that's still within 2 games of the division. I wouldn't care if they were 10 games under .500 if they were only 2 games back. When you're in the hunt you should keep hunting. Shouldn't have traded any prospects for reinforcements if being 2 games back on 8/23 meant throwing in the towel.

You're asking them to shutdown their best player for no reason other than you don't want him to get hurt when they aren't going to make the playoffs. You don't call that giving up? What do you call it when you suggest not playing your best player even though they could play?

But you've been saying that the last 30 games and they still haven't fallen out of the race. This division is awful. The Twins should be getting multiple players back in September. Maybe they'll come to life like the 2009 and 2010 teams and chase down the division title. Maybe they won't. But why would we ever want to give up on a season with over a month to go when they're only 2 games out? I'm not predicting a WS title. Not even a playoff win. But why just throw in the towel in August?

The 2009 and 2010 Twins teams were both more than 5 games out going into September and both made the playoffs. Why are we giving up on a team in August?

I don't get the attitude behind shutting down your star player when the doctors say there's no reason to. My point is you have no reason to believe he's risking greater injury. Everything the team has said all season long is that he's not risking greater injury by playing on his knee. Thus your argument shouldn't just be for Buxton, but should be for Polanco, Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Duran, and everyone else on the team with more control beyond this year since they all risk blowing out a knee every time they step on the field just like Buxton does. Yes, I want them to play him as much as he can play while they're fighting for a playoff spot. I'm sorry I haven't given up on the season on August 23rd with the hope they will be drastically better in 2023. If they're not drastically better next year what month should they shut him down in? July? Have to make sure he doesn't blow out a knee in early August in case they're drastically better in 2024.

Luckily for the sports world your feeling doesn't decide who gets to make the playoffs in any given league. And hopefully, for Twins fans in general, the team doesn't agree with your and Cody's assessments and decide to just go home before September even starts.

Buxton is playing through tendinitis in his knee (according to Do-Hyoung Park). Surgery is absolutely not a safe assumption as tendinitis is rarely treated with surgery. Now it's completely possible that he does end up having a debridement procedure during the offseason, but it shouldn't just be assumed. "Time off won't fix it" isn't their stance. "If it's going to be something if he took significant time off, would he just be dealing with the same symptoms within a few games of returning? That's possible, too," is their stance. Their stance is that a 10 day IL stint won't be enough to fix it and he needs far more time off than that to do the therapies to get it right, without surgery, so putting him on the 10 day IL wouldn't help his knee situation enough to matter as he'd still be playing through pain when he came back. His hip flared up last night and changed the situation. The hip isn't something he can play through and he needed to go on the IL for it. When the situation called for it they shut him down. Just like I'd think the assumption should be. When shutting it down is in the best interest of everyone involved (team and player) they shut the player down. I just don't get why we'd think any team, or player, would be actively going against what the medical professionals say is the best. Or why a team should give up on a season on August 23rd when they're 2 games back with 17 games left against the 2 teams they're battling for the division title.

Do you have quotes from team officials, or Buxton himself, saying he'll need a procedure? What is the knee injury he's suffering from, and what is the procedure that fixes it? My point is you don't know that he'll need a procedure, or that he's risking an ACL injury (as you suggest without any basis from what I can see) by simply playing through the current pain. My point is none of us are doctors who have seen his medicals, thus have no basis to assume any of the things you're assuming. The people who have far more invested in his health than any of us have decided the best thing for him, and the team, this year and into the future was to play CF sparingly and DH on most other days. Why can't we just assume at the very least Byron has enough self preservation desire that he wouldn't risk next season, or his career, by playing through something he shouldn't? Instead you assume you know more about how his knee should be handled than the doctors paid to know such things.

Since June 1 (date you suggested he's been bad since) Byron Buxton has hit 17 HRs (tied for 9th in all of baseball in that time frame), and had a triple slash of .236/.323/.552 which is good for a 149 wRC+. If being 49% better than the average major league hitter is not just a "little slump," but something much worse than that, as you suggest, I can't even imagine how good he is when he isn't in a massive slump.

1. Buxton is now on the 10 day IL so your wishes have come true. Hip strain. 2. Why do we assume the team, and, more importantly, Byron himself, haven't been doing what is medically right for him this entire season? Do we think Byron, and the team, are being told he needs to shut it down or he's risking his career? Or do we think they're being told playing on it is purely about pain tolerance and the only risk for long-term damage is the same as the risk everyone else faces because of the type of injury he's dealing with? I'd assume the Twins want Byron around for the entirety of his contract, and I'd assume Byron wants to continue playing major league baseball for the entirety of his contract. Why do we think they're ignoring things and pushing him harder than doctors who've actually seen his medical reports say they should push him? Why can't we just accept that everyone involved want what's best for Byron to perform at a high level for the next 6 years and they're doing what they should be doing? They've told us time and again that shutting him down won't fix his knee, but playing on it won't hurt it more. Why can't we just let that be the answer for this season?

Do you look at Buxton and see someone who isn't following a good conditioning plan? There's a number of articles out there that you can find about his running routine during the offseason to keep his speed and stay in shape. Buxton works his tail off. Somebody doesn't have to have failed at something for them to be injury prone. Sometimes their bodies just weren't meant to do the things professional athletes do with their bodies. Sucks, but it happens. There's no reason to believe Buxton's injuries have anything to do with lack of effort on his part.

I'd sign him to 10/100 right now. He's not a complete shock as a player. He was a 2nd round pick. It took him some time to start making better swing decisions, but he's always had great bat to ball skills. I don't understand why more teams don't do what Atlanta has done with Acuna, Albies, Harris, and slightly later Riley. I think it's absolutely worth it to pay a premium during Miranda's pre-arb years to get him at an absolute steal for his later arb and free agency years. If they're not at least seeing what it'd take to buy out some free agency they're not doing their jobs.

Duran and Miranda are neck and neck to me. Miranda may have a slight edge because he's an everyday player. I think most everyone had hopes he'd show up and start to lay claim to the everyday 3B job moving forward, but I don't know that any of us expected him to be the best hitter on the team on August 18th, and that's exactly what I'd say he is. If I'm the FO I'm reaching out to his reps and seeing what it takes to sign him for 10 years. 10 years 100 mil get it done? I think it should and I'd do it today. Duran has saved this pen, and, likely, this team. He had some 2 inning outings, he's had saves, he's become the 8th inning guy now, was the fireman a few times. He's done everything and I cringe thinking of what this season would've been without him. But as a reliever he loses a couple points on my Twins rookie of the year ballot so he'd be 2nd for me. Joe Ryan seems to have settled in where he was most likely to settle in and it's as a league average pitcher with some flashes of greatness against weaker competition and some real blowup games when he's not on against good offenses. Just doesn't have the stuff to be able to perform when he's not hitting his spots so he'll likely always be this guy. Which is still a useful guy to have on your team. Just don't want him making more opening day starts cuz he shouldn't be the #1 on any competitive staff.

I mean it's provably false that Rocco has that hard and fast rule. 3 of Ryan's first 4 starts this very season he went 6 or 7 innings. He's been awful since his COVID IL stint and now he's being treated like the average to slightly below average starter he is right now. Sonny Gray went 6, 7, 6 innings before his first IL stint this year. Mahle has gone 6 innings in both of his starts with the Twins. Even when he gave up 3 bombs in his first start. No, Bundy, Archer, Smeltzer types aren't seeing the lineup a 3rd time in a close game. There have been a few times where I thought he should've let a guy go another inning, but it's most certainly not a hard and fast rule for every starter the Twins have. And, as I pointed out before, that 2019 rotation had the 6th most innings pitched in all of baseball. If his rule was strictly "no starter sees the order a 3rd time" they simply couldn't have had the 6th most starter innings in baseball. I agree Pagan should've been DFA'd long ago, but, again, Rocco isn't to be blamed for using the guys on his roster. He simply can't go out there and never use Pagan. It's not reasonable. He needs to use every guy on his roster, so as long as Pagan is on there he's going to have to pitch some. If Duran and Lopez held the lead in Anaheim Pagan never even sees the field to give up that HR. So suggesting Rocco needed to be saved from using him after already having used his big guns who blew the lead seems like some revisionist history.

That's why part of the difference between managers is the talent they have at their disposal. There's no manager in the history of baseball that carried an untalented team to great success. They just don't have that kind of influence on wins and losses. Especially wins. But that 2019 team also had the 9th best ERA in all of baseball while their relievers pitched the 20th fewest innings, and the the starters threw the 6th most. People tend to act like Rocco/the FO has some hard and fast rule about starters going deep in games. The 2019 team had better starters, and hadn't had a pandemic shortened season, so they were allowed to go deeper. People tend to act like the HR record covered for Rocco despite that being a quite complete team until Pineda cheated and injuries hit late so they went into the playoffs with far less then their A team out there. I'm not a huge Rocco fan. I don't think he's great and I wouldn't be broken up about it if he was fired (other than it's never a happy thing to me when someone loses their job). Sac bunts are very rarely the smart play and it's why the league as a whole doesn't use them very often anymore. The math says it only makes sense in certain situations. I'd like to see Rocco put some hit and runs on with certain guys at the plate, but they also have a lot of dudes who swing and miss A TON and you're just giving away outs when they swing through it and the guy is toast at 2nd. Who on this team should be stealing a ton of bases outside of Buxton who has been battling a bad knee all year? They're not exactly full of speedsters. That's not on Rocco. He can't make the roster he's given faster. At some point it just becomes a no win situation for a manager, though. Rocco can't just never pitch Pagan. You can't afford to just completely waste a spot on your roster like that. Like I said, I don't love Rocco, and don't think he's done a great job, but he's also only able to use the guys he's given. If he's part of the decision making to keep Pagan on the roster because he wants to use him that's 1 thing, but if he's just using what he's given I can't blame him too much for using all 26 guys on the roster.

Firing Rocco wouldn't lead to this FO bringing in a non-analytics guy. They hired Rocco because he's an analytics guy. It's what they believe in. Tampa wins every year. Dave Roberts is an analytics guy and LA wins more than any team. AJ Hinch is an analytics guy and did alright in Houston. Not sure why being an analytics guy means they aren't managing to "win" when the teams that win the most in baseball are lead by "analytics guys." The difference between managers these days is mostly what analytics they use and the talent they have at their disposal. Chicago has what many would consider a non-analytics, old school guy in La Russa running a team many say is far more talented than this Twins team yet the Twins are percentage points ahead of Chicago in the standings.