chpettit19

That's my bad. The Twins definitely should've been concerned about what Correa's leg would look like in 8 years when they were signing a 1 year deal. They're so dumb! I know Mike knows that's sarcasm, but for anyone questioning, that was sarcasm.

The Cohen situation is interesting. He didn't overrule his staff on Rocker last year. How much more does he want Correa? I'd guess a lot, but he's also not blindly doing deals. He let deGrom walk. Likely due to his injury concerns I'd guess. He's aggressive, but I don't know that we should just assume he's going to be reckless here.

If you're referring to the deal he signed last year, he passed the physical because it was for 1 year, not 12 or 13. And he had a slide this last season where he felt something in his surgically repaired leg. It's entirely possible that that slide aggravated something and the Drs with these other teams are now seeing that that leg isn't likely to hold up for as long as they'd like. Or the insurance company, as others have stated, don't like the odds of it holding up. He hasn't taken a physical for the Twins after their 10/285 offer so if that's the one you were referencing it's as simple as it hasn't happened so he hasn't passed anything.

Looking like short years, high AAV deals for Correa moving forward. I still expect him to end up in NY with the Mets, but on a deal similar to the 3 years 105 million deal he had here. Without the opt outs.

If the Twins would be willing to pay Devers they 100% should see if he's available. He'd instantly be the best player on the team (because Buxton doesn't play enough). But there's a 0% chance they'd pay market rate for him so there's no way they should actually trade for him. Overall, I find it hard to believe they're going to really invest in another 3B at this point. They traded Urshela so Miranda can play there. Unless you're upgrading on Miranda (with someone like Devers, even though Devers is probably best suited to be a DH most the time) there's really no point in bringing someone else in. They're trying to transition to the "new core" and Miranda is the only youngster that's stayed healthy and produced so he's getting a spot handed to him. Probably the right strategy.

I'll take the over on Mahle, he's my bold prediction for 2023. And my expectation is that he performs well enough that the Twins won't extend him because they won't pay market rate. But that's a different discussion for a different post. The FO is in a tough spot. I don't know how secure in their jobs they feel, and that's a huge variable here. If they feel like they've got another couple years of runway/would be allowed to go into an abbreviated rebuild I think they should be trading some veterans this offseason. My guess is the Pohalds/St Peter see the dwindling attendance numbers, and their expiring TV deal, and want no part of a public punting of the 2023 season. Especially after St Peter's comments on attendance at the end of the year, they have to be publicly showing they're trying to win in 2023. I don't think they've done a good job of that. And based on convos with my friends and the forums here, I don't think I'm in the minority. With the competition in this division, this half-a'd approach to the offseason could be enough to get into the playoffs in 2023. That's not good enough for me, and I'm not excited about this team at all. But I can see where there's hope. I just hope they're willing to make decisions quickly during the season if young guys are taking spots and let them run with them.

It makes me sad, and likely adds to my current frustration, that Larnach, Lewis, and Kirilloff have gone through what they have the last 2 years. If even 2 of those guys had established themselves as the top 6 in a good lineup bat with solid to above average defense that we all expect/hope they will become 2023 would look so much different to me. Arraez, Buxton, Polanco, Miranda, and 2 of those guys would've been a great base to build from. But since I can't trust any of those 3 to be a key player for the 2023 Twins I'm left crossing my fingers on a Gallo deal I wish they never even had to consider.

Gallo causes me a lot of cognitive dissonance. I know he's an above average, likely All Star level player if he bashes 38 bombs and plays above average to gold glove quality defense. But I hate the 3 true outcome style of game, and watching him will make me pull out what little hair I have left.

I'll be pretty shocked if Polanco isn't a top 15 2B in 2023 again. I will not be shocked if Kepler continues to struggle. But I hope he bounces back and improves.

"The postponement" is an interesting situation right now. The Twins find themselves in a really tough spot (at least partly of their own making). They've been trying to let the young guys create a new core for at least 2 years (I think they were overly conservative in 2020 with Kirilloff). They've tried to hand Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, and Lewis starting jobs at some point over each of the last 2 years (I think we all assume Lewis was getting a shot in 2021). They've given Ryan, Ober, Winder, Jax, Duran, Alcala, and Moran shots to earn major league jobs. So far Arraez, Miranda, and Gordon are the only ones to show any sort of stable starter potential on offense. Ryan, Jax, and Duran are the only ones to show any sort of stable starter/back end bullpen potential on the mound. I don't think it's totally fair to suggest they've been postponing things to this point. They've tried to establish 6 starting position players around Buxton (I don't think they had any real plans for Gordon to turn into a real piece so I didn't count him). 1 of those guys established himself (Arraez). 1 did enough to earn himself a fulltime starting job to start this season (Miranda) so they moved the guy "blocking" him (Urshela). The other 4 guys have been a mix of flashes of success in between multiple injuries. I get the calls for letting the young guys go, but what reason do we have to trust Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers, or Lewis at this point? Kirilloff and Larnach have given the Twins every reason to sign former all stars as insurance at this point. The pitching is along the same lines. Duran, Ryan, and Jax have established themselves in their roles, I think. Ober will get another shot at the rotation, but doesn't deserve an unquestioned spot due to his injuries. Alcala has been up and down, but certainly deserves a shot somewhere in the pen. Moran will get his second shot this year, and if he sustains his end of the year success he's another bullpen piece. Winder needs to show he can stay healthy. SWR, Varland, etc. are going to get their chances to establish themselves this year, and hopefully they take advantage. The Twins have been trying to let young guys take jobs the last 2 years. Very few of them have been able to stay healthy and do it, though. I wouldn't be excited about the Twins 2023 chances if they traded Mahle (I'd actually extend him), Maeda, and Gray. I think the pitching side is setup perfectly to allow another guy or 2 to establish themselves in 2023 so they don't need to extend the aging Maeda or Gray. If Larnach or Kirilloff could be trusted at all I'd hate this Gallo signing. Instead I'm basically neutral on it. We know how they love to rotate guys in and out of the lineup and give guys rest and all that so I'm not worried about a healthy Larnach or Kirilloff getting ABs. They'll get their chances. And if they stay healthy and produce then Gallo becomes expendable via trade (if he's successful and it makes sense with the roster at the deadline) or release (if he sucks) or you thank him for his service at the end of the year (if he's successful, but the roster situation at the deadline means you don't trade him).

Why would they lose Kepler and Polanco for nothing come '24? They're both under team control through 2024 (2025 for Polanco).

Gallo for 1/11 or Conforto for 2/36 is an interesting debate. Not sure I love either of those deals. The FA market is a blood bath this year.

It's not a double standard when you're comparing 2 completely separate fan bases. And, as mentioned above, this thread is about Bauer and the Twins, not Watson and the Browns. Let's just stick to Bauer and the Twins.

Recent reports (as recently as earlier tonight) have the Dodgers ready to cut him loose and eat his money. It should probably say a lot that they have no desire to keep him. The Twins FO isn't exactly on the best of terms with the fan base right now, and picking up a guy with his reputation as a person and teammate doesn't sound like the way to get fans back on their side. I'll be pretty darn surprised if he gets a deal with any team. Ever. I'd bet his career is over. He's into his 30s now, has a terrible reputation from multiple organizations (even wasn't liked in college), openly admitted to using "sticky stuff" during his amazing 2020 season, and hasn't been on a major league mound in a year and a half, but continued to shoot off his mouth and poke MLB over social media. Can't imagine there's too many owners willing to take on that PR nightmare for a guy who's been more average to good than great over his career.

Correct. My whole point, though, was just that it's not as simple as saying "the contracts aren't that different because of NY taxes vs MN taxes." It's far more complicated than that.

Maybe I'm reading that article wrong, and understanding the information I've gotten wrong, but it's actually the opposite of your Florida example. A Marlin who plays 3 games in Minnesota won't get a credit for the taxes they had to pay to MN since Florida has no income tax. So had those 3 games been played in Florida, the player pays no taxes. Since they're played in MN the player pays no taxes to FL, but does pay taxes to MN, and gets no credit because he only paid tax on the money once. Thus he makes less than he would've if the system was based solely around the tax rate of his team's state. Edited: Well it's not the opposite, but it goes both ways. That's the better way to say it. But at the end of the day it's still not simply NY taxes vs MN taxes.

I wish Dozier was still around in 2021 and 2022! He was a gamer.

I do not have high expectations for this lineup. I've been saying most of the winter that the cries for "more pitching! more pitching!" are too strong, and they have every bit as much a need for more offense. I have high hopes for Kirilloff, Larnach, Miranda, Lewis, etc. if they can all stay healthy, but at this point Miranda is the only one I trust to stay healthy and he'd be more of a 5/6 hole hitter in my lineup. At this point, in my opinion, the Twins need to be looking to acquire above average talent only. That's why I have no desire to have them trade for Mateo or sign any remaining free agents. They have a 40-man full of guys who could be league average players, but almost no stars. Stars win. Bring in stars or roll with what you have and see if any of the young guys can be stars. Even though I hate that that means they're slicing the payroll way down.

I'm with @nicksaviking on this one. What's the point of bringing in any of these no hit shortstops people are throwing around? I want nothing to do with Mateo, Andrus, Iglesias, etc. Bring in a real shortstop or quit wasting resources on them.

I believe that depends on the state. I filed taxes in 3 different states the last couple years and, unless my tax person is stealing my credits/just not filing correctly, I didn't get any credits for the other 2 states I filed in.

Just an FYI, but players pay taxes based on where they play each game. So he'll pay NY taxes for all his home games, and games against the Yankees, but the rest of his taxes are paid in the state/city where he plays road games. It's not a 1 for 1 look when comparing NY to MN.

I'd guess they were quite positive that the Twins weren't going above the 285 and once Cohen called Boras there was no talking to any other teams.

I'd accept that answer. I wouldn't have paid either of them over $10 million. My point was simply that the idea that someone with Gallo's history, and success in 2021, most definitely costs more than "a tenth of" his $11 million. Bellinger getting 17.5 guaranteed is pretty obvious proof of that. Free agency is an expensive game to play. If you want the Twins to sign free agents you simply have to accept that the price tags are going to feel high.

No, he can't. He had to officially opt out (file paperwork) by a certain date (5 days after the WS if I'm not mistaken). No take backs here.

Welcome to Twins Daily! 2 question for you...Which of the following 2 players would you pay more for? And what would you pay each player. Both considered above average to elite outfield defenders. Stats from 2020-2022 BA/OBP/SLG/OPS, 2Bs, HR, SB, OPS+ Player A: .203/.272/.376/.648, 46, 41, 23, 74 Player B: .183/.319/.409/.728, 29, 67, 11, 101 Stats from 2017-2022 Player A: .248/.332/.487/.819, 134, 152, 62, 117 Player B: .201/.328/.475/.803, 86, 170, 25, 112 So Player A slightly better over last 6 years, but Player B better over last 3. Who would you pay more and what would you pay each of them?