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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    A few of you have made very good points on Jeffers, and I think I've changed and would be on board moving him, assuming the return is worth it. If you can get an impact bat or top end starter for Jeffers+ I'd do it. Especially if that bat is a CFer. Jeffers alone won't get it done, but Jeffers plus a mid-level prospect or 2 may be enough to make something happen.
  2. chpettit19
    I 100% agree they need to cut down on Ks, but they were actually 12th in baseball in OBP. Not bad considering their K numbers. Cleveland and Washington had the lowest K% in baseball and 22nd and 23rd in OBP.
  3. chpettit19
    One any player can't carry a team in the postseason. Yordan Alvarez did everything he could to carry Houston, and they're now done. One starting pitcher can't carry a team in the postseason either. Should they not try to get superstar starters or bats? I'm not going to respond anymore. There is a difference between bad, ok, good, great, and elite players at every position. And it matters at every position. Even the bullpen.
  4. chpettit19
    Who said anything about forcing a win by using a skill set you might not possess? I didn't say having Jason Tyner try to hit HRs is the best way to win, I said hitting homeruns is. And it's a provable fact. Until you can show a strategy that has a better than 85% win rate then I'm going to stick with hitting homeruns being the best way to win playoff games.
  5. chpettit19
    And they knew this was coming. This didn't sneak up on them. That's my point. They're a massive, billion dollar organization. They had to pivot. They had years to work on this pivot. If they aren't prepared to handle this situation it's a failure on their part. This is how businesses work. Either they've done their jobs or they haven't. If they haven't figured out how to continue to grow their business the new head Pohlad better start making changes in the business department. This wasn't an overnight, out of nowhere surprise. Cord cutting has been happening for a long time. The shift away from cable is something the Pohlads should absolutely be expecting their business department to have multiple plans to combat. MLB itself has had a team working on this for years. The Twins have options. The Twins have known this was coming. We should expect that the Twins are a well run business and thus they're prepared to adjust their business models as the times change. I won't accept a payroll cut because of lost TV revenue when they've had ample time to prepare for this moment and not lose revenue. They have handsomely paid business employees who's jobs it is to secure these sorts of revenue streams. They should have a plan for this even though they're going to milk all the pity they can out of fans for how hard it is to not just be handed a contract extension from Bally's.
  6. chpettit19
    The Twins used Pagan twice this postseason. They were losing both games when they put him in. Jeff Hoffman has been used 7 times, 4 of them he went less than an inning, including 3 appearances of .1 innings, one of which he blew the lead. He's pitched in the 8th inning 3 times, 1 he faced 2 batters and blew the lead, another he faced 1 batter, the other his team was up 6-1. I don't mean to be rude, but I'm not going to continue with this discussion. I appreciate the back and forth, but we simply don't agree. You're not going to convince me that building a pen full of Pagan and Varlands is the same as building a pen full of Duran and Haders. Maeda was used twice, while losing, and wasn't particularly good in either appearance. Paddack was used twice, while losing, but was quite good. Varland faced 4 batters and got 2 outs in the WC round and wasn't trusted to be used at all in the ALDS. They're not at all a good example of your point that relievers are all the same.
  7. chpettit19
    Over the last 5 years the team that hits the most homeruns in a playoff game has won over 85% of the games. Not sure your "playing homerun" theory actually holds up to reality. Homeruns are unquestionably the best way to win playoff games.
  8. chpettit19
    I put literally 0 weight on a 12 inning sample size, sorry.
  9. chpettit19
    I don't care about 60 regular season innings, or reliever WAR (completely useless stat). I care about winning playoff games. Emilio Pagan trying to close out a 1 run game in October is not something I want any part of. Louie Varland closing out a 1 run game in October is not something I want any part of (if they move him to the pen full-time maybe he earns that trust, but not with a month of relief appearances). Duran is "enough better to make a big difference" in the postseason, to me. Plus, we saw Pagan try to close in 2022. It was a very big difference to Duran doing it. Not all relievers are the same. And it can be a very big difference when you have Colome and Pagan blowing save after save.
  10. chpettit19
    If your belief is that trading out Duran for Pagan this year leads to the same results, cool. We're just going to have to agree to disagree here. I think the vast majority of relievers are pretty interchangeable year to year. I think there's a different level, though, and I think Duran is in it. You don't have to agree. You think Pagan and Varland are the same as Duran. I don't. To each their own.
  11. chpettit19
    To be fair, MLB has him at #16 and Jim Bowden has him at #12. This isn't crazier than any other prospect ranking hype video. Nice that national outlets are giving our guys some love (fangraphs has Lee at 10). I've never heard of this site, but still fun to see our guys get love.
  12. chpettit19
    Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree that Louie Varland and Jhoan Duran are the same.
  13. chpettit19
    The point is that they shouldn't be losing TV revenue. This issue didn't sneak up on them. They've known this situation was coming and they shouldn't be losing any revenue because they should have a plan in place to replace it. The only acceptable time for them to have lost TV revenue was this season when Diamond was attempting to not pay them. "Our TV contract ran out and we couldn't figure out how to solve that problem" isn't an acceptable excuse for cutting payroll. Their market doesn't shrink because their contract ran out.
  14. chpettit19
    I'd have agreed with you 10 years ago, but in this day of 5 or 6 inning starts you need relievers. Lots of relievers. We've seen the misery of having less than stellar relievers. I think "all you get is a really expensive reliever" is selling elite closers short. I just think there's something to be said for knowing the 9th inning with a lead means game over.
  15. chpettit19
    How come? I get it for the average reliever for sure. I'd go year to year with almost all of them. But the elite guys tend to stay pretty darn good for a long time. Chapman is 35 and still blowing smoke by people. Craig Kimbrel is 35 and doing his thing still/again. I'd lock Duran up through age 33 if I could. I just think it's going to take more than Seth suggested to get it done. He may have a down year or 2, but replacing someone like him, even at 31, is hard to do. I don't think it's crazy to be worried about relievers long-term, but I think the elite guys are worth locking up if you can.
  16. chpettit19
    I'm not a Gordon believer (swing rate just isn't conducive to success), but are we really sure Castro and Larnach are better than him? Castro is certainly faster, and a better defender, but are we sure he's a better hitter? Or that Castro is even a major league hitter moving forward? Are we sure Larnach is better than him at anything? I'm not suggesting Gordon be handed a starting job. Not even suggesting he be handed a roster spot. But is $1 million really so much that we don't think it's worth at least keeping him around until we have someone we know is better than him to take his 40-man spot?
  17. chpettit19
    The Twins have the 17th ranked market score in MLB. They should never be below the 17th ranked payroll in baseball. They were at that mark this year. They were 16th last year (Pohlads loosening those purse strings!). 17th in 2021, 17th in 2020, and 18th in 2019. There is no excuse for them to drop below 17th. They knew their TV deal was expiring after this year, and they knew the Bally's situation was in trouble well before any of us did. If they aren't prepared to fill that revenue void that's a failure on their part. The Twins have the summer to themselves in the Twin Cities. Market your team better. Put a better product on the field. Earn the eyeballs. The Twins should never be below 17th in payroll. They should never be a bottom 10 payroll. There's other things to do, watch, and spend your money on in every MLB city. Minneapolis isn't alone in having other activities. The Timberwolves just put themselves deep into the luxury tax despite competing directly with the NFL and NHL for nearly their entire season. Build a better product. Market it better. And MN fans show up and tune in. And Miami, Detroit, Arizona, and Colorado all have lower market scores than the Twin Cities while also having all 4 major sports, FYI.
  18. chpettit19
    That's the challenge in a guy becoming a multi-season star before trying to extend, right? Duran is on pace to make 120 mil when he hits free agency (inflation) on top of his arb numbers. It gets harder and harder to find a middle ground in talking long-term, early extension once a guy becomes one of the best in the game. Hard to convince a guy to sign for less than half of what he'd make betting on himself. Especially because injury risks aren't what they used to be. Injury during his arb years cost him a few mil, but he still gets his 100 mil pay day in free agency. Edwin Diaz went from fans wanting him cut after his first year in NY to getting 20 mil a year. 1 bad, or missed, year just doesn't hurt you that much when you're considered elite.
  19. chpettit19
    Don't disagree at all, but I don't think that's a reason to do anything with Gordon until you have to. I'm just talking about tendering Gordon. Some people are suggesting he's an easy non-tender because of Castro. I don't agree with that equation. I don't think Castro is a reason not to tender Gordon. Having a better player than Gordon who needs the spot would be a reason. Gordon not being worth his projected salary would be a reason. Castro alone isn't a reason. Signing Gordon again for 1 mil makes sense unless you have an actual replacement for him on the 40-man. You can carry both Gordon and Castro on the 40-man until you need to make a decision. That isn't anytime soon, if you ask me.
  20. chpettit19
    Not sure why people think Rodriguez is going to be cheaper than Sonny. If he's a FA it's because he opted out of a 3 year/49 million deal. Why would he opt out of that if he isn't going to be chasing 3/60+ like Sonny is? He's also much younger than Sonny. For me it's: 1A- Nola 1B- Snell 2- Rodriguez 3- Trade for another Lopez type guy you can extend I don't think Sonny Gray can repeat his performance from this year, and that's the kind of pitching we need. I don't want a number 2-3 starter, I want another #1 starter. Sonny is a #2-3 starter moving forward, but he pitched like a #1 this year. I'll happily wait a DH year from Ohtani if they can make that happen 😜
  21. chpettit19
    I'm fine dropping both of them. Or keeping both of them. It depends on what other moves you're able to make. My point is simply that Gordon did more offensively in 2022 than Castro did in 2023. Castro is the better defender, and faster, so he's the more useful player if he can maintain his 2023 production, but he also had much worse production the 2 previous years. If we're not impressed by Gordon's upside we shouldn't be impressed by Castro's. I find the statement "I'd easily choose Castro over Gordon" to be interesting. I'm not saying it's wrong, but it's interesting. To me, neither player has earned themselves a guaranteed spot moving forward. Castro maintaining simply league average offense moving forward is no sure thing. I wouldn't plan to keep them both, but I do think there's a usefulness in carrying them both into the spring. Unless you're ok with the "super sub role" being filled by a far below league average hitter. Cuz that's what Castro was for 2021 and 2022. He got dropped by Detroit because he couldn't hit. Keeping them both until you need one of their 40-man spots is the best strategy, in my opinion. If Castro has a bad spring you can send him down to AAA to try to find his groove and roll with Gordon. If you drop Gordon over $1 million and Castro has a bad spring you have no "super sub." Just saying there's a reason to tender Gordon and keep him until you truly know you don't need him or have somebody who needs his 40-man spot.
  22. chpettit19
    I think you're way off base on your assumptions here. Dusty Baker is trying to win the World Series, not get revenge on a player who pimped a homerun. Adolis hit a grand slam last night and posed for that one, too. Do you think he's getting plunked in game 7? He hit a bomb and jumped down the first baseline in game 4 and I don't remember Dusty going "old-time manager who knows nothing but this stupid eye-for-an-eye crap" on him in that game. If Dusty, or anyone else on the Astros, wanted to get back at Adolis for how he reacted to any HR in this series they'd wait til next year and put 98 in his ribs then. But his HR celebrations aren't out of the norm anymore, and there's very little "eye-for-an-eye crap" done in baseball anymore.
  23. chpettit19
    If I'm the Twins and he'll take that deal I'll sign it today. If I'm Duran, though, I'm not signing that deal. I'll take my chances in arbitration and hit the market a year old than Diaz did last year. Through his arbitration years the Twins would be saving about $1 million (compared to Hader's first 3 arb years) while locking in cost certainty, and spreading out the costs. Seems reasonable on both sides. But the 3 free agency years the Twins are saving about $25 million (compared to Diaz's deal) while also getting club options (I assume Seth is doing club options like Nash and the Clase extension). That's a hard no from me if I'm Duran. I'd take my chances in arbitration and hit the market after 2027 and sign a $100 million deal. Duran likely has 1 shot at a huge deal, and, if I were him, I'm not signing away that chance for the deal presented here. He'd be leaving way too much money on the table. A lost season between now and free agency costs him a few mil in arbitration. Signing away his age 30-33 seasons costs him 100 mil (he's far less likely to get a Diaz type contract at age 34 than age 30). Costs aren't going to start coming down. Hader may reset the market again this winter. By the time Duran hits free agency he may be looking at 25+ mil a year in salary possibilities. I wouldn't give up that chance if I were him. But I'm not the one with this hypothetical $56 million in front of me.
  24. chpettit19
    It better not be. The Twins are in way too big of a market to be in the bottom 10 in payrolls in baseball. 153 mil landed them at 17th this year. They are in too big of a market to be 17th, let alone start cutting payroll now and drop into the 20-30 range. They knew this was coming and should be prepared for it by now. There's no excuse for cutting payroll.
  25. chpettit19
    I don't see them tendering Luplow, but probably try to bring him back on a minor league deal like they did with Garlick. I think Alcala gets another year to stay healthy and establish himself as a major league pen guy. I think Gordon gets tendered, and then it just comes down to what other moves they can make throughout the offseason. While Castro likely has the first shot at the utility role next year, I don't know that his season is enough to say there's no need for Gordon and to be certain that Castro is this guy moving forward. Castro has an option left so being able to keep them both heading into spring wouldn't be the end of the world as you can see if Castro is looking like he can maintain another year of league average offense, or if he's going to revert back to who he was in 2021 and 2022. I'm not a big Gordon guy (don't think he can succeed with his swing rates), but Castro didn't do any better in 2023 than Gordon did in 2022. I hope neither of them has to play that big a role in upcoming seasons, but I know it's very likely one of them does.
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