chpettit19

Over the last 5 years the team that hits the most homeruns in a playoff game has won over 85% of the games. Not sure your "playing homerun" theory actually holds up to reality. Homeruns are unquestionably the best way to win playoff games.

I put literally 0 weight on a 12 inning sample size, sorry.

I don't care about 60 regular season innings, or reliever WAR (completely useless stat). I care about winning playoff games. Emilio Pagan trying to close out a 1 run game in October is not something I want any part of. Louie Varland closing out a 1 run game in October is not something I want any part of (if they move him to the pen full-time maybe he earns that trust, but not with a month of relief appearances). Duran is "enough better to make a big difference" in the postseason, to me. Plus, we saw Pagan try to close in 2022. It was a very big difference to Duran doing it. Not all relievers are the same. And it can be a very big difference when you have Colome and Pagan blowing save after save.

If your belief is that trading out Duran for Pagan this year leads to the same results, cool. We're just going to have to agree to disagree here. I think the vast majority of relievers are pretty interchangeable year to year. I think there's a different level, though, and I think Duran is in it. You don't have to agree. You think Pagan and Varland are the same as Duran. I don't. To each their own.

To be fair, MLB has him at #16 and Jim Bowden has him at #12. This isn't crazier than any other prospect ranking hype video. Nice that national outlets are giving our guys some love (fangraphs has Lee at 10). I've never heard of this site, but still fun to see our guys get love.

Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree that Louie Varland and Jhoan Duran are the same.

The point is that they shouldn't be losing TV revenue. This issue didn't sneak up on them. They've known this situation was coming and they shouldn't be losing any revenue because they should have a plan in place to replace it. The only acceptable time for them to have lost TV revenue was this season when Diamond was attempting to not pay them. "Our TV contract ran out and we couldn't figure out how to solve that problem" isn't an acceptable excuse for cutting payroll. Their market doesn't shrink because their contract ran out.

I'd have agreed with you 10 years ago, but in this day of 5 or 6 inning starts you need relievers. Lots of relievers. We've seen the misery of having less than stellar relievers. I think "all you get is a really expensive reliever" is selling elite closers short. I just think there's something to be said for knowing the 9th inning with a lead means game over.

How come? I get it for the average reliever for sure. I'd go year to year with almost all of them. But the elite guys tend to stay pretty darn good for a long time. Chapman is 35 and still blowing smoke by people. Craig Kimbrel is 35 and doing his thing still/again. I'd lock Duran up through age 33 if I could. I just think it's going to take more than Seth suggested to get it done. He may have a down year or 2, but replacing someone like him, even at 31, is hard to do. I don't think it's crazy to be worried about relievers long-term, but I think the elite guys are worth locking up if you can.

I'm not a Gordon believer (swing rate just isn't conducive to success), but are we really sure Castro and Larnach are better than him? Castro is certainly faster, and a better defender, but are we sure he's a better hitter? Or that Castro is even a major league hitter moving forward? Are we sure Larnach is better than him at anything? I'm not suggesting Gordon be handed a starting job. Not even suggesting he be handed a roster spot. But is $1 million really so much that we don't think it's worth at least keeping him around until we have someone we know is better than him to take his 40-man spot?

The Twins have the 17th ranked market score in MLB. They should never be below the 17th ranked payroll in baseball. They were at that mark this year. They were 16th last year (Pohlads loosening those purse strings!). 17th in 2021, 17th in 2020, and 18th in 2019. There is no excuse for them to drop below 17th. They knew their TV deal was expiring after this year, and they knew the Bally's situation was in trouble well before any of us did. If they aren't prepared to fill that revenue void that's a failure on their part. The Twins have the summer to themselves in the Twin Cities. Market your team better. Put a better product on the field. Earn the eyeballs. The Twins should never be below 17th in payroll. They should never be a bottom 10 payroll. There's other things to do, watch, and spend your money on in every MLB city. Minneapolis isn't alone in having other activities. The Timberwolves just put themselves deep into the luxury tax despite competing directly with the NFL and NHL for nearly their entire season. Build a better product. Market it better. And MN fans show up and tune in. And Miami, Detroit, Arizona, and Colorado all have lower market scores than the Twin Cities while also having all 4 major sports, FYI.

That's the challenge in a guy becoming a multi-season star before trying to extend, right? Duran is on pace to make 120 mil when he hits free agency (inflation) on top of his arb numbers. It gets harder and harder to find a middle ground in talking long-term, early extension once a guy becomes one of the best in the game. Hard to convince a guy to sign for less than half of what he'd make betting on himself. Especially because injury risks aren't what they used to be. Injury during his arb years cost him a few mil, but he still gets his 100 mil pay day in free agency. Edwin Diaz went from fans wanting him cut after his first year in NY to getting 20 mil a year. 1 bad, or missed, year just doesn't hurt you that much when you're considered elite.

Don't disagree at all, but I don't think that's a reason to do anything with Gordon until you have to. I'm just talking about tendering Gordon. Some people are suggesting he's an easy non-tender because of Castro. I don't agree with that equation. I don't think Castro is a reason not to tender Gordon. Having a better player than Gordon who needs the spot would be a reason. Gordon not being worth his projected salary would be a reason. Castro alone isn't a reason. Signing Gordon again for 1 mil makes sense unless you have an actual replacement for him on the 40-man. You can carry both Gordon and Castro on the 40-man until you need to make a decision. That isn't anytime soon, if you ask me.

Not sure why people think Rodriguez is going to be cheaper than Sonny. If he's a FA it's because he opted out of a 3 year/49 million deal. Why would he opt out of that if he isn't going to be chasing 3/60+ like Sonny is? He's also much younger than Sonny. For me it's: 1A- Nola 1B- Snell 2- Rodriguez 3- Trade for another Lopez type guy you can extend I don't think Sonny Gray can repeat his performance from this year, and that's the kind of pitching we need. I don't want a number 2-3 starter, I want another #1 starter. Sonny is a #2-3 starter moving forward, but he pitched like a #1 this year. I'll happily wait a DH year from Ohtani if they can make that happen 😜

I'm fine dropping both of them. Or keeping both of them. It depends on what other moves you're able to make. My point is simply that Gordon did more offensively in 2022 than Castro did in 2023. Castro is the better defender, and faster, so he's the more useful player if he can maintain his 2023 production, but he also had much worse production the 2 previous years. If we're not impressed by Gordon's upside we shouldn't be impressed by Castro's. I find the statement "I'd easily choose Castro over Gordon" to be interesting. I'm not saying it's wrong, but it's interesting. To me, neither player has earned themselves a guaranteed spot moving forward. Castro maintaining simply league average offense moving forward is no sure thing. I wouldn't plan to keep them both, but I do think there's a usefulness in carrying them both into the spring. Unless you're ok with the "super sub role" being filled by a far below league average hitter. Cuz that's what Castro was for 2021 and 2022. He got dropped by Detroit because he couldn't hit. Keeping them both until you need one of their 40-man spots is the best strategy, in my opinion. If Castro has a bad spring you can send him down to AAA to try to find his groove and roll with Gordon. If you drop Gordon over $1 million and Castro has a bad spring you have no "super sub." Just saying there's a reason to tender Gordon and keep him until you truly know you don't need him or have somebody who needs his 40-man spot.

I think you're way off base on your assumptions here. Dusty Baker is trying to win the World Series, not get revenge on a player who pimped a homerun. Adolis hit a grand slam last night and posed for that one, too. Do you think he's getting plunked in game 7? He hit a bomb and jumped down the first baseline in game 4 and I don't remember Dusty going "old-time manager who knows nothing but this stupid eye-for-an-eye crap" on him in that game. If Dusty, or anyone else on the Astros, wanted to get back at Adolis for how he reacted to any HR in this series they'd wait til next year and put 98 in his ribs then. But his HR celebrations aren't out of the norm anymore, and there's very little "eye-for-an-eye crap" done in baseball anymore.

If I'm the Twins and he'll take that deal I'll sign it today. If I'm Duran, though, I'm not signing that deal. I'll take my chances in arbitration and hit the market a year old than Diaz did last year. Through his arbitration years the Twins would be saving about $1 million (compared to Hader's first 3 arb years) while locking in cost certainty, and spreading out the costs. Seems reasonable on both sides. But the 3 free agency years the Twins are saving about $25 million (compared to Diaz's deal) while also getting club options (I assume Seth is doing club options like Nash and the Clase extension). That's a hard no from me if I'm Duran. I'd take my chances in arbitration and hit the market after 2027 and sign a $100 million deal. Duran likely has 1 shot at a huge deal, and, if I were him, I'm not signing away that chance for the deal presented here. He'd be leaving way too much money on the table. A lost season between now and free agency costs him a few mil in arbitration. Signing away his age 30-33 seasons costs him 100 mil (he's far less likely to get a Diaz type contract at age 34 than age 30). Costs aren't going to start coming down. Hader may reset the market again this winter. By the time Duran hits free agency he may be looking at 25+ mil a year in salary possibilities. I wouldn't give up that chance if I were him. But I'm not the one with this hypothetical $56 million in front of me.

It better not be. The Twins are in way too big of a market to be in the bottom 10 in payrolls in baseball. 153 mil landed them at 17th this year. They are in too big of a market to be 17th, let alone start cutting payroll now and drop into the 20-30 range. They knew this was coming and should be prepared for it by now. There's no excuse for cutting payroll.

I don't see them tendering Luplow, but probably try to bring him back on a minor league deal like they did with Garlick. I think Alcala gets another year to stay healthy and establish himself as a major league pen guy. I think Gordon gets tendered, and then it just comes down to what other moves they can make throughout the offseason. While Castro likely has the first shot at the utility role next year, I don't know that his season is enough to say there's no need for Gordon and to be certain that Castro is this guy moving forward. Castro has an option left so being able to keep them both heading into spring wouldn't be the end of the world as you can see if Castro is looking like he can maintain another year of league average offense, or if he's going to revert back to who he was in 2021 and 2022. I'm not a big Gordon guy (don't think he can succeed with his swing rates), but Castro didn't do any better in 2023 than Gordon did in 2022. I hope neither of them has to play that big a role in upcoming seasons, but I know it's very likely one of them does.

Either. Both. Whatever it takes. The vast majority of their core is locked in for 5+ years. I think that core needs more talent. If they can't replace 1 top prospect in 5 years they're not going to sustain success anyways. If Lewis-Correa-Julien-Kirilloff is your IF answer like some here seem to believe why can't you move Lee? If those 4 are good enough to be a WS core you don't need Lee. Can't argue their current lineup is good enough while simultaneously arguing you can't trade their replacements when that whole IF is locked in for years. I don't trust Kirilloff to stay healthy, Julien to hit lefties, and I'd move Lewis to CF, but I'm being told by some here (not necessarily you) that you can't move any of the IF guys so 1B is the only opening. Lee isn't a 1B and doesn't profile as an elite bat there so if you can't move the 3 guys in his positions why can't you trade him if those guys are good enough to be the WS core? There's risk in trading him. There's risk in not trading him. Can't give an opinion on if I like trading him until we know the return possibilities. All I'm saying is that this team is lacking top end offensive talent. Getting it requires risk 100% of the time. Would they be better off today having traded Kirilloff or Buxton for elite offensive talent instead of hoping they get healthy? Hoping on prospects is every bit as risky as trading them.

Why aren't you changing third, short, second or catcher? Arenado freaks out and demands out of St Louis and you say "no thanks" cuz you can't fit him in at third, move Lewis to 2B, and Julien to 1B? Correa was going to move to 3B in NY, but we can't have him do that plus move Lewis and Julien? Julien already played 1B this year, but we can't move him in 2024? No team should operate that way. Mookie is a pretty good right fielder. Best in the game I'd argue. Played IF this year. Why would the Twins limit their options by refusing to move anyone around on defense?

Jose Altuve, Xander Bogaerts, Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Gonzalez would all like a word with you on Boras forcing them to go to FA and not sign extensions that give away FA years. Those deals vary in terms of size, but those are just the names I could think of off the top of my head.

Every team would like a Sonny Gray on their roster. Every contender has room for him in their rotation (some lower than others). Sonny has been around a long time, and I'd bet has a number of friends in other orgs. It's quite possible he enjoyed his time here and likes how the Twins run things, but with his connections he should be able to find out how any team offering him a deal runs, and what their clubhouses are like. I believe him when he says the money isn't the top factor, but it can certainly be the deciding factor when you're deciding between multiple contenders who run things the way you like and are offering you the same number of years. Money may not convince him to go to a bottom feeder, but the Twins being at 50 for 3 and the Cardinals being at 70 for 3 would likely lead to Sonny in St Louis, I'd bet. Because I think he'll have multiple offers from multiple contenders I think he leaves because I don't think the Twins will be the high bidder in terms of length or total value on the deal.

Developing them is always the best way to have top talent on your major league roster. But on a year to year basis the answer can't be "well we plan to develop Jenkins into Larry Walker so we're good to go." Lee/Martin and Jenkins can't be your plan A for raising the 2024 ceiling. And we saw in the playoffs the primary position players weren't good enough. Of course you hope for continued growth from the youngsters, but do we expect Lewis to be much better than he was in the playoffs? Do we expect Julien to be better? Those guys pretty well maxed out the realistic expectations we should have for their postseason performance. Where else can we add talent for the 2024 team? That's the question. The Twins have done the "develop" part of the plan, right? They have their young guys at, or on the doorstep to, the major league level now. They have the cheap talent. Now's the time to go get your Grienke, Verlander, Seager, Semien, Abreu (terrible regular season, but monster postseason so far) type guys. You absolutely need the young guys to come up and be key pieces, but Houston and Texas filled around those guys with stars. Dodgers developed guys then filled around them with Betts and Freeman type guys (HOFers). Philly developed Stotts, Bohm, Nola, etc. but filled around them with Schwarber, Harper, Castellanos, and Wheeler. Atlanta developed Acuna, Albies, Riley, and Strider types, but filled in around them with Morton, Murphy, Olson, Ozuna types. Dbacks developed Carroll, Thomas, and Perdomo types but brought in Marte, Pham, Moreno, Gurriel, and Gallen types. The Twins have done the develop part. Now it's time for the "bring in" part of the plan, in my opinion.

Is he asking to make a parallel move or hoping that he gets a promotion, but Falvey gets demoted and goes to Boston to work for him instead?