chpettit19

Flaherty is an interesting one for me. If this were a couple years ago I'd be all over him instead of the Happ, Shoemaker, Archer, Bundy signings they were making, but, as I see it, they have 1 opening in the rotation for 2024. I want a more sure thing than Flaherty for that 1 spot if I can get it.

I don't mind that strategy, but I'd rather just use money than players and money. Everyone wants stick and glove players, but it's not that easy. Replacing Julien's bat won't be easy. Not saying not to trade him (or anyone), but the offense was still a problem in the playoffs (and for most of the year) so I don't know that I see trading any good bats as dealing from a position of strength. But I would guess it's more likely they trade than sign one of these guys. Even though I think the top 5 names on this list are likely just as good, or better, than any pitcher they can get in trade. And cheap, #2 projection type pitchers in AAA are going to cost a ton in trade. Well more than Julien. If you're set on not trading Lewis, Lee, Jenkins, or ERod you're going to struggle to get somebody like that. Everybody wants those guys. Most valuable commodity in baseball probably. 27 year old Lopez with 2 years of control left cost a batting champ. 20-26 year old Lopez type with even more control costs well more than that would be my guess.

What do you feel the difference between Lopez and the number 3-5 guys on that list is? Especially prior to the Twins acquiring him. They're paying him 21.5 per year after next year so it's not like he's significantly cheaper than them, and he cost them Arraez on top of that. He's younger than everyone but Yamamoto, but he cost them Arraez. What do you think the prospect cost would be compared to giving up a defending batting champ? Julien is the only guy that'd likely come close to Arraez's value so are you looking to trade him? Not sure how else you get it done without using Lee, Lewis, Jenkins, or ERod.

The Rockies are fighting with the Angels for the worst run franchise in baseball. Definitely don't want to be following their lead. But the Padres were basically the opposite of the 2022 Vikings this year. They were 2-12 in extra inning games, and 9-23 in 1 run games. They had a +104 run differential (Twins was +119, 104 was 8th best in baseball) which makes it absolutely crazy that they finished with only 82 wins. And they made it to the NLCS last year. If that's a "terrible model to follow" I don't know what our expectations should be here. Yes, Dodgers playoff success has been severely lacking, but they win 100 games basically every year, and have won 90 plus every year since 2013. I'll take that "not pretty picture" over the Twins picture since 2013. The Rangers are about to win the World Series. The Astros have been to 8 straight ALCS. And St Louis just had their first losing season since 2007, and only their 3rd since 1999. If those are examples of teams "buying their way to failure" I'd like to sign up for buying my way to failure, because those are the teams I just named, and they're all having way more success than the Twins (other than Colorado). Adding through trades and the farm system are also vital. I'm not suggesting they only build through free agency, I'm suggesting they supplement through free agency. And the top end of it, not the bottom. Yes, the Lopez deal has worked well so far, but the Mahle one hasn't at all. They should be making trades, promoting young guys, and signing free agents. Whatever you have to do to get top end talent. If they develop right they can afford top end free agents in certain windows. I think this is one of those windows.

Have the Twins said they can't afford Gray? I don't really follow their pressers or anything. Not being able to afford 20ish a year would be very frustrating.

I don't think there's a bunch of future all stars coming up, and that's why I want to pay for them. I think there's a lot of really good players coming up, with 1 or 2 all stars, and that's why I want to supplement them with paid for stars to push them over the top. Or give them the best chance to get over the top. I totally understand the 10 year thing. In fact, I wouldn't go to 10 years for any other player (assuming we're talking free agents so they're in their late 20s, early 30s). I don't like the idea of signing the vast majority of players past the age of 35 (it's why I'm not overly thrilled with the idea of bringing Gray back for 3 years). I just think if you have the chance to add the greatest player to ever live you should do it. The extra revenue he would bring in for the first 5 years of that contract pays for the last 5. I think he's simply the most extreme outlier in the history of baseball (maybe sports in general), and if I could get him I would. Agreed the 10 years is way bigger of a concern than the AAV. But I'd do it anyways. But, yes, this is really a complete waste of my energy as it'll simply never happen. But man would it be awesome.

I'm not going to get into 2024 payroll stuff here, and I understand that some fans will buy the "we have to reduce payroll for 2024" line they're fed, but I won't. You just won your first playoff game in 2 decades, and had an incredible atmosphere at Target Field. If the Pohlads need to eat it for a year, so be it. You don't get to where you're at now and take a step back. Texas has the 13th best market score in MLB. The Twins are 17th. Should the Rangers have a higher payroll? For sure. Should they have a $100 million higher payroll? I'd argue that's either the Pohlads caring more about profit than the Texas owners, or the Rangers being run better so they make more money. The Rangers are actually eligible for revenue sharing based on their market size. The Rangers have the 4th highest payroll despite having the 13th highest market score. The Twins have the 16th or 17th highest payroll (depending on your source) with the 17th highest market score. If the Rangers can get to 250 why can't the Twins get to 200? Is it because they can't sell tickets and get eyeballs because they've built terrible teams for most of the last 10+ years? Cardinals have the 26th best market score and nearly the exact same payroll as the Twins. San Diego is 24th and had the 3rd highest payroll. Rockies have the 21st highest market score and a payroll 20 million higher than the Twins. Houston is 15th in market score and have maintained top 5-10 payrolls for years. The Twins have momentum now. Feels like an awfully big business mistake to crush that by cutting payroll now. Especially when there's plenty of smaller, or similar, markets that find a way.

Oh, I definitely don't expect the Twins to go after Ohtani. I'd argue that not paying for elite talent is a risk as well, though. Assuming the goal is to win championships. You need elite talent to win. Expecting to get multiple elite talents out of your system all at the same time is just as big a risk as paying for some expensive players. Not wanting to pay big money for elite talent is mostly because you want to be able to pay other talent, right? That's the general argument people make. You can't pay Ohtani because then how are you going to pay other guys to win with him? Isn't there risk in waiting for someone else to be worth that money? Like I said, I don't expect them to go after Ohtani, but I think this is the time to make a splash. I don't blame people for being risk averse in terms of not wanting to do the big money thing, but I think if there was ever a time to do it now is that time. They have Correa, Buxton, and Lopez locked up for 4 or 5 years each. Now Buxton may be lost money at this point, but I'm just trying to lay out the situation. They have Vazquez for 2 more years. Kepler for 1, and Polanco for 2. Those are the only guys making real money right now, right? Ryan, Ober, Lewis, Julien, Lee, Kirilloff, Wallner, Martin, and so on are the guys everyone wants to build around, and have money to pay, right? Those guys are all at various spots between not even being on the 40-man today and pre-arbitration if I'm not mistaken. That means you have them all under control, for well under market rates, for 3-6+ years. I don't think anyone would argue that anyone I just named has any shot at being as good as Ohtani over the next 5 years. After those 5 years when he likely starts to decline, you have all the guys currently making big money off the books and Ohtani's contract isn't even filling every dollar you make up with losing them. Basically losing Correa, Buxton, and Vazquez from your roster covers Ohtani's deal in 5 years. Kepler, Polanco, and Lopez coming off the books over the next 4 covers any increase to the arbitration numbers from the young guys we're all excited for. And then you continue to backfill with pre-arb young players to sustain your success. I don't see a ton of risk in the Twins making another big signing right now. The risk would be that you picked the wrong free agent so you can't sign another one later on to make up for them. The Twins new young core is here. They're always going to be the key to sustained success, but by having so many young guys it provides you a 5 year window to go big on free agents to surround them with while also giving you 5 more years until you need to replace a whole bunch of young guys instead of just 1 or 2 here and there. I don't expect Ohtani, but their window is now. If not now, when? When are they going to be better set with young talent all arriving at the same time with a natural window to go big? The Rangers are on the brink of a championship because they saw their system about to produce a number of good players and they went out and spent money on stars to support that. Why can't the Twins do the same thing?

But Falvey may want to duplicate the colossal payroll success of the Rangers. Or Dodgers. Or Astros. Signing high priced free agents isn't a problem if you have cheap, young talent from your system on pre-arb and arb deals. The Angels and Mets didn't fail because they spent, they failed because they didn't develop. The Rangers are 1 win away from a World Series title while handing out $685 million on 3 players in free agency the last 2 years. They gave another $132.75 million to 4 other free agents. That's $817.75 million guaranteed that they handed out in free agent deals in a 2 year time span. Then they traded for Max Scherzer. Not including Scherzer, they handed out over $140 million/year to 7 guys (Seager, deGrom, Semien, Gray, Eovaldi, Heaney, and Leclerc). They pay out $101 million to deGrom (40), Seager (35.5), and Semien (26) in one year alone. deGrom made 6 starts (30.1 innings) for them for $40 million, and they're still about to win the World Series. 6 of those 7 guys are a big reason why. But Garcia, Jung, Carter, Lowe, Heim, etc. on pre-arb and arb deals stepping in and carrying weight as well is just as big, if not bigger, because it means they don't need to spend any more to win. High priced contracts only kill you if you can't back them up with low cost, good players.

To me, a lot of the ERod equation comes down to how he's striking out. Is it a lot of swing and miss in zone or is he just taking too many pitches and putting himself in bad spots? I don't know. But if it's a lot of swing and miss in zone and I can trade him for a controllable, young, starting pitcher I'd do it. The reports I've read suggest he's probably not an MLB CFer, but that could change the equation a little as well. Walker Jenkins is the only untouchable player I see in the minors for the Twins. The rest would all be available depending on the return. Now that return may have to be Spencer Strider or George Kirby, but if they can get an arm in their mid-20s to pair with Pablo for the next 4+ years I'm trading anyone not named Lewis or Jenkins. It will be very interesting to see how ERod progresses over the next couple years. Feels like he could be Gallo or Soto (as someone else pointed out). That's a major leaguer either way, but one is an MVP, and one you'd wish you'd traded him for pitching after 2023.

Basically their WARx8 million to represent the average cost of 1 WAR on the open market.

"Worth" is a pretty loaded word, I think. Shohei's offense alone this year was "worth" $53 million according to Fangraph's WAR, while his pitching was worth $19 million. I think it's a pretty safe bet that Shohei gets back to a pretty darn good pitcher. TJ just doesn't change pitchers like it used to, and he's about as hard a worker as you can find. He'll only be 30 when he starts pitching again. I think 50 a year for him is likely a steal for the next 5 years. End of the deal could get ugly, but his swing is so simple to start with I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him still be worth quite a bit towards the end of the deal, too. It's a massive gamble, and I don't expect the Twins to even put a bid in on him, but I'd rather bet on Ohtani til he's 39 than guys like Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado who just got paid until they're 40. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are making 43 a year as 40 year olds.

That's kind of cool! I'm going to hit all 30 stadiums (plus the WBC) in 2026 and am going to figure out something to collect for each stadium. This has been added to the list of possibilities!

Totally fair, but slashing payroll very likely doesn't help with whatever plan they've come up with. Pohlads may have to eat it in 2024, but taking the momentum from your first playoff win in 2 decades and destroying it by significantly reducing payroll to below your market size is just tying your other hand behind your back in the process. Twins games are going to be broadcast next year. They should already have checks lined up to be stroked, or the Pohlads should already know they're taking it in the wallet this year. Twins Daily is a much more tuned in segment of the fanbase than the general population. Telling the people around here they're going youth movement so cutting payroll isn't that big of a deal would actually excite a large number of people here because they're tuned into the org and follow prospects. But telling the general fanbase you're cutting payroll and going youth movement after having signed the biggest FA contract in team history and finally winning a playoff game wouldn't go over well at all. That's how you turn yourself into a playoff regular who can't sell tickets like Cleveland.

What would cause a loss of 30% of revenue in 2024 while providing a sustainable increase in revenue by year 2 or 3 in this situation? Going more over the air to bring in more fans by being able to provide their product for free this year while partnering it with a streaming option through MLB? Do we think that plan works well if they cut payroll at the same time and piss off the fan base? Is the hope just that the older generation being able to get their product for free while cord cutters pay to stream it balances out with the anger you'd get from the fan base when you say "thanks for packing our stadium for the playoffs, but we're going to take a step back in payroll now?" The teams that have made these sorts of moves haven't cut payroll to do it, they've simply bet on the idea of losing now to win over time. The story I'm getting around here is that the Twins will cut payroll and that's OK and fans shouldn't be upset. I don't buy it. If you cut payroll at this point you're going to destroy all the goodwill you just built up. They finally have momentum and destroying it by slashing payroll sure sounds like a horrible business decision if you're making your way towards a subscription based revenue stream.

If any of those top 5 guys get the money projected there they immediately move into the top 10 in AAV amongst starting pitchers in baseball. I don't think that seems low. Are Montgomery, Nola, and Snell top 10 pitchers in baseball? I don't think anyone would argue that they were coming into this year. I don't know how many would argue they are moving forward either. The nature of pro sports is that each year the contracts go up some, but, by AAV those numbers eclipse Stroman, Ray, Gausman, Castillo, Bassitt, Musgrove, Morton, Perez, Lynn, Berrios, Mikolas, Lopez, Darvish, and Webb who all signed within the last 2 years. I think 25/year is probably pretty accurate to what these guys can get. Only 8 starting pitchers in baseball make 25/year right now. Yeah, not a big Bowden fan, but I think his numbers are probably pretty close here, as far as AAV goes. They'll likely all ask for as many years as they can get, but the AAVs are awfully close I think.

Totally fair, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if you're right on that. I wouldn't like it, though. If they're going to spend I want them to spend on the biggest gun they can get. And I don't think that's Sonny Gray, even if he's who I expect them to sign.

Do you like it more than Montgomery, Nola, or Snell providing 100 mil over 5 years? To me, that's the question. There's no way they're signing more than 1 guy like this (chances of them even signing 1 is quite low). If you're going to give out 20+ a year to Gray why wouldn't you just add 5 more and give it to a guy who should be better for longer?

Do you think Gray maintains his production from 2023, most importantly his health, moving forward? I'm just not convinced he can maintain that for much longer. He's only made 30 starts in a year 1 other time since 2015. I wouldn't expect him to be able to do it more frequently as he hits his mid-30s. He's a max effort guy (even though he doesn't throw with super high velocity) so I'm just worried that you sign him for 3 years and get 1 actually good one out of him while the other guys would require longer commitments for slightly higher AAV, but likely provide you more productive years. I won't be upset if they bring him back for something around 3/60, but I'd like to shoot for one of the guys who are more likely to have 3+ really good years left in them.

Not my predictions, Jim Bowden's predictions. An additional 15% on the deals around 25/year would put them at nearly 29/year. 20% would put them at 30/year. There are currently 6 big league starters making 30/year. They're named Scherzer, Verlander, deGrom, Cole, Strasburg, and Ohtani. There's only 1 other pitcher making 29 (sale). Carlos Rodon signed for 27/year over 6 years last year. Beyond that there's no other starting pitcher in baseball making 25/year. You're suggesting that we'll go from 8 guys making over 25 mil to 12 in 1 offseason? That'd be a big bump. I think 25ish mil a year is probably a pretty good baseline for those guys.

I'm not a big fan of Jim Bowden (he has some takes that prove to wildly off the mark for being a former big league GM), but he just released his free agency predictions on The Athletic. It's behind a paywall so I won't put it all down here, but I wanted to take a look at the top 10 pitchers from his list (he ranked the top 40 FAs with contract predictions). Pitcher Rank (overall rank) Player (contract prediction) 1. (1) Shohei Ohtani (10 years, 477 mil plus incentives and escalators taking it over 500 mil- basically 50 mil/year) 2. (2) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7 years, 211 mil- 30.1 mil/year) 3. (3) Jordan Montgomery (5 years, 127 mil- 25.4 mil/year) 4. (4) Aaron Nola (5 years, 125 mil- 25 mil/year) 5. (5) Blake Snell (5 years, 122 mil- 24.4 mil/year) 6. (9) Clayton Kershaw (1 year, 22 mil- 22 mil/year) 7. (10) Sonny Gray (3 years, 64 mil- 21.3 mil/year) 8. (11) Eduardo Rodriguez (5 years, 90 mil- 18 mil/year) 9. (12) Michael Wacha (1 year, 16 mil- 16 mil/year) 10. (13) Lucas Giolito (2 years, 24 mil- 12 mil/year) First thing I notice here is how concentrated the top of the rankings are with pitchers. I don't think that should come as a surprise to many as I think it was well known that the position players side of things was pretty shallow this year. But 10 of the top 13 guys being pitchers is a lot. And I don't think it's wrong. Second thing is what we all love coming on here and discussing...who should the Twins target? While I think the Twins could (and should) offer Ohtani that kind of contract, I don't think anyone truly thinks he's an option for the Twins so we can skip over him. I think the next 4 are the ones the Twins should be targeting, and I think all of those contracts are doable for the Twins. I don't expect them to go after Yamamoto even if I think he'll be a star and is the youngest guy on this list by far. To me, the Twins have a 5 year window they should be going more or less all in for as they have Buxton (even though you can't rely on him at all anymore) and Correa under contract for those 5 years, Pablo Lopez for most of it, and nearly all of their young talent under control for at least that long as well. I know people worry about "sustained success" and blocking prospects, but I think the window is open now and relying on the young guys to fill in top of the rotation or lineup spots is too risky. Pairing Lopez and one of the top 5 names on this list at the top of the rotation for the foreseeable future would be massive. Yes, injuries are always a concern for starting pitchers, but relying on Ober, Ryan, Paddack, Varland, and SWR to not only be as good as anyone on this list, but also to stay healthy as well, doesn't sound like a recipe for a World Series title to me. Locking in Lopez, FA X, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack as your rotation for the next 2 years, plus more for 4 of those guys, means you can move someone like Varland to the pen (not to start 2024, but eventually) if he can't take the next step, you can trade someone like SWR for a bat if he starts performing next year, and you can truly rely on your system for depth instead of needing it to produce stars regularly. Signing one of those top 5 guys would be my first task to complete this offseason if I were in charge of the FO. And it'd be for 4+ years. I think getting that done means you can focus almost entirely on the offense (and pen) moving forward as you have your rotation pretty well locked up with the guys coming up in the system fighting to either push one of these guys out, or take over Paddack's spot in 2026. I know a lot of people like the Twins system, but I don't see any pitcher in there that's likely to match Lopez or anyone at the top of this list anytime soon. And if they do, great! Then you have 3 frontline guys. I'd take Sonny back for a year (I don't expect him to be able to repeat his production this season for much longer, if at all) or Rodriguez, but those top 5 guys is what I'd like to see the Twins go after, and get. Kershaw isn't an option, and the 2 Japanese stars likely aren't realistic either. So, really, it's Montgomery, Nola, and Snell that I'd like. In that order, but I'd take any of them. What do others think? Realistic for the Twins to get any of these guys? Who would you want? And for how long?

I think the Twins will do everything they can to not have a significant payroll decrease this season. Not because of some grand gesture of goodwill, but because it'd be a terrible business decision to finally beat the streak, have fans show up and support them like crazy in the postseason, and then turn around and tell fans they're cutting payroll. Will some people accept/buy the TV revenue loss as a legitimate reason and be ok with it? Sure. Will some people look at the system and be happy to see a youth movement that fits in with the lower payroll? Sure. But will the average fan who they rely on for viewership and ticket sales be as informed as the average TD member? I highly doubt it. They've built up a ton of hope, and happy feelings, about the team now. To turn around and throw water on your own fire with a payroll cut seems like it'd be a horrible decision and would ruin the vibes while they're trying to sell more season ticket packages, and individual game tickets eventually. They've known this contract was ending, and that the current model was in turmoil, for years. I'd bet they have a plan to replace this revenue and maintain their payroll. I definitely bet that the Pohlads expect them to have a plan. Even though they'll sell their story of losing a bunch of money like the owners do every year, especially around CBA negotiation time. The Twins are worth $2+ billion, and the value keeps going up. Companies that size don't just shrug their shoulders and say there's nothing they can do about losing one of their largest revenue streams. They will replace that money. Just a matter of how.

I wouldn't move him just to move him, but if they can find a suitable return I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's moved. All comes down to what they can get back for him.

Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree that Lee is ready to beat out Polanco and Julien for a starting spot. I love the enthusiasm, but that's selling Polanco and Julien way short. Julien OPSed .839 in 109 games in the majors (130 OPS+). Brooks Lee OPSed .808 in the minors, including a .731 OPS in AAA. Julien beat him by 100 points of OPS while in the majors and Lee in the minors. They're not giving Lee the 2B job over Julien. Polanco had a .789 OPS in the majors to Lee's .731 in AAA. He had a 115 OPS+. It wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world for Brooks to OPS just under .800 as a rookie, but you're not assuming he's going to do that after OPSing .731 in AAA and handing him a starting spot over Polanco. Development is best done at the highest level you can get the most ABs. For Brooks Lee at the start of 2024 (with the current makeup of the roster) that level is AAA. Using Polanco's early MLB career doesn't work when arguing for Lee to get an opening day roster spot. Polanco played 9 combined games, and had 20 combined plate appearances, in his age 20 and 21 seasons. He was up for 3 emergency stints, not because they were trying to develop him that way. They didn't do that because they thought it was best for Polanco, they did it because he was the last man standing on the 40-man for those spots.

Polanco has 2 years left, fyi.