chpettit19

Where is this "surplus" of corner outfielders? With all the surplus on this roster that's talked about on almost every thread on TD it's crazy that they only won 87 games last year, and we shouldn't have any problem replacing Gray through trade with all these high value trade guys we have that aren't needed anymore.

People misusing stats is different than stats being biased. The human is biased and selectively choosing which stats to use in what way. The other poster said stats are biased and "your eyes don't lie." That is wrong. Our eyes lie to us all day long, and our brains are wired to be biased. The best trained human eyes are not as good as the technology we now have in place. In person scouting is still absolutely important. Especially at the amateur level for the draft, and international free agents. But we don't need scouts as much at the big league level because of the technology that's in place. The stuff that scouts are looking at are now measured with equipment the human eyes and brain have no chance to compete with. "Makes consistent hard contact" can be boiled down to exact numbers now. "Needs more extension on his fastball" can be boiled down to exact numbers now. There's a reason guys are going to Driveline, or similar companies, in the offseason to work on pitches and not just getting together with a coach who will eyeball things. Yes, stats can absolutely be used in biased ways, but stats themselves are not biased. Knowing how to use them, or choosing to use them correctly/honestly is up to people. The humans are the ones that are biased, not the numbers.

Based on current roster with projected playing time for next year. So guys like Canterino and Pierson Ohl are included while Sonny Gray is not.

Arguing that stats that compare the same thing for every player in baseball with the same criteria are biased while the human eye that can't possibly see every player in baseball, and are attached to a fan of a certain team are unbiased is a real bold claim. Our eyes do lie. All the time. Humans are nothing if not biased. Defensive stats have a long way to go still, but our eyes absolutely lie. And, if you want to get into the tall weeds on things, some of the defensive stats are based on human eyes. Eyes that watch far more games of far more teams than the typical Twins fan so the eye test is actually baked into some of those stats already. The eye test is almost never as effective as the stats, especially with the high speed cameras that are now used to produce some of the stats. Those cameras are so much better than the eye test it's not even worth discussing.

While I'm not huge on Severino, he's a career .270 hitter in 6 minor league seasons. I think he needs more time in AAA before I'd like to see him get a shot in the majors, but he's doing much more than running "into a cookie in the minors once a week."

Aren't these 2 stances a little contradictory? Not saying I totally disagree, but if the lack of consistency and availability is a reason to move people shouldn't you be advocating for moving Kirilloff just as much as Polanco and Miranda? He's never ended a major league season healthy, and never played 100 games in an MLB season. 0-3 with major surgeries ending his season twice and another surgery that was feared likely major ended the third. Not exactly a great example of consistency or availability. I assume the difference is where you see their talent levels, and that's why I don't totally disagree. But counting on Kirilloff as the 1B going forward is awfully risky as well.

Significant step down from them, but, to be fair, all but about 5 guys on the planet are significant steps down from the Bader/Taylor tier. Martin is a good athlete, but not an over the top burner as far as speed goes. He's best viewed as serviceable in CF right now while perhaps having upside to become a plus defender down the road. It'd be a clear bet that his bat is enough better than Bader/MAT to make up for a decrease on the defensive side.

What do his stats for 52 games after his trade have to do with anything? He was back to being an elite hitter last year so what does that mean about who he is as a person? Greedy because he didn't stay with the only team that could offer him a contract at that time? A team, by the way, that was in an absolute death spiral and looking at a massive rebuild. You don't like that players try to get paid as much as they can. We don't need to derail this thread. You're willing to judge a young man you've never met based on him not signing an extension, and, apparently, the fact that he had a singular rough stretch after a trade. We're just going to have to agree to disagree that any of us have any idea what sort of human Juan Soto is. We're going to end this side talk here, though.

Wonder if the offers people are calling with are just so good or if money has become a real problem. I'd guess those are the most likely motivating factors.

Padres weren't much higher in payroll in 2021 (roughly 174) than the Twins were in 2023 (roughly 155). That's a real gap for sure, but they weren't at some crazy level then. I think mess is a strong word to use. Some fans think Sonny Gray had animosity with Rocco. I think trying to judge those things (much like the character of a player) from the outside is incredibly hard to do.

Another poster did and I responded to them suggesting the Padres weren't a mess and you responded to me. Just using the term that was being used to describe them. The point, though, is that the Twins historically bad division was an advantage, even if it wasn't as big of one as it used to be.

The Padres played 91 games against teams over .500 in 2023. The Twins played 73. If you don't think getting 52 division games against teams under .500 isn't an advantage over getting 26 division games against teams under .500 ok. But I think it helped. Claiming the Padres "are a mess" when they finish 5 games worse than the Twins while playing 18 more games against teams over .500 feels like a misuse of the word "mess." If you don't want to attribute those extra 18 games to the 26 more intra-division games then don't. Doesn't change the fact that the Padres played a significantly harder schedule.

That's my point. You're assassinating this young man's character based on nothing. I'm asking if you have a basis to your statement that Soto's "line is ME, MYSELF, and I." JD-TWINS didn't provide any real reasoning for that thought either. Suggesting that Soto isn't a team player because he won't just blindly sign an extension for whatever the Twins offer him if he were to get traded here is nonsense. Guess what, Lewis isn't just going to sign whatever contract the Twins put in front of him either. He doesn't have a choice but to stay here. I think it's pretty reasonable to at least have a quote or two from someone before you label them selfish.

I didn't say it's the only place they should be looking to pursue players, but it's a spot that makes sense. They're going to have to get incredibly creative if they're going to make any sort of significant improvements to the current roster if they make significant payroll reductions. That's a different topic, though. But looking at 1B options makes sense to me as a standalone statement. I'm going to assume Falvey didn't say 1B is the only place they're looking for guys so I was just commenting on this in a vacuum. I would put controllable frontline starter at the top of my "to do" list if I were the Twins.

You have any quotes on this "ME, MYSELF, and I" line?

I think it makes sense depending on who they bring in. They need another big bat, or 2, and 1B is a place you can usually find those. I'd think there's a combination of lack of trust that Kirilloff can stay healthy and faith that they can move guys around well enough defensively while not locking the DH spot down with 1 guy that would allow them to utilize Kirilloff and the new guy if/when Kiriloff stays healthy and produces. I think Kirilloff is the most natural hitter on the major league roster, but I don't think the prudent thing to do is banking on him being healthy. I think you build the team as best you can while not counting on Buxton or Kirilloff, and if they can play to their very clearly high potentials then you've got incredible boosts to your roster. I think this news makes sense.

I'd be rather disappointed if one of these moves is the only rotation move they make. Not saying I'd be surprised, just disappointed.

If you go into a debate about the best hitter on the planet right now and drop those 2 names one of them gets you asked to leave the conversation while the other has people nodding their head in agreement that it's a possibility. I know it's natural to overvalue the players we watch all year and know well, but that is overvaluing to the max (see what I did there?).

You don't see the great value even for a 1 year deal? Really? You look at the numbers below and don't see how Juan Soto, in a down year for him vs a career year for Kepler, has great value?

Yeah, I'm not at all going to read anything like you are into that stuff. Feel free, but you're not basing those opinions on anything real, in my opinion. He turned down a contract with a team that was in free fall with no sign of coming out of it and bet on himself to be able to make even more while picking where he wanted to play. I don't find that as a character flaw. He wasn't an "ego issue" when he won a World Series. Tying the manager leaving to Soto in anyway is a bridge way too far for me. Especially because it's been widely reported that AJ Preller is terrible to work with as a manager, and Melvin and him didn't get along at all (some rumors were that Preller wasn't even talking to Melvin anymore). I don't expect the Mets to trade Alonso, and definitely don't expect the Twins to be the ones to get him if they do, but not wanting a .260+ batter (he's hit .260+ in 3 of 5 seasons) with 40 HRs because other guys in the Twins lineup strikeout is a bold stance. He struck out fewer than 130 times the 2 previous seasons which puts him right in line with Soto. The bet is that he gets back to who he was in 2019, 2021, and 2022. His K% was 22.9% last year, by the way. It's not like he's striking out 30+% of the time. He was under 20% the 2 previous seasons in 150+ games played each year. Pete Alonso would be the best bat in the Twins lineup immediately. I don't get why you wouldn't want that because other guys in the lineup are bad. But to each their own.

I disagree that the Padres are a mess. They were absolutely disappointing in the win total last year, but their run differential was 1 spot behind the Twins, and 8th best in baseball. It was incredible how poorly they did in 1 run games. Like unbelievable that they ended with only 82 wins (which is only 5 less than the Twins while playing in a way tougher division). The Padres have already said it's more likely they trade Soto at the deadline if they trade him, and the Mets have already said they're not looking to trade Alonso and are having extension talks. I'm not saying it's impossible either guy is traded, but both teams have spoken on them already.

I'm a "ceiling" guy, and want all the pro sports team I cheer for to take risks on ceiling instead of staying "safe" with floor. Burnes is ceiling while Ryan is floor to me. The Mitchell piece is intriguing. I see a Kevin Kiermaier type there. Big time speed and defense, but probably best served hitting 9th in your order. And I'm good with that as their CFer until something better comes along (ERod or Jenkins maybe?) and if/when something better comes along you can do a lot worse than that profile as your 4th OFer. I'll call Falvey now and let him know we've figured out his big move for the offseason and to just get it done 🤝

The bet on Alonso is that he gets back to being a .260-.270 hitter that he was the previous years, and not a .217 hitter. The Mets have actually been quite "committal" as far as baseball folks go. David Stearns has said since the second he got there that he has no intention of trading Alonso. Why does Soto "seem like a disruption, particularly in the Twin Cities market?"

I love the Ryan trade scenario (I also don't think he takes the next step). If they could swing that deal I think they should. The one that includes Jax I don't think is realistic. Just compiling a whole bunch of low value guys to reach the 45 "value" mark isn't a realistic trade formula, in my opinion. I don't think the Brewers aren't trading Burnes for a bunch of 26 and 27 year old AAAA players and a reliever. I also like the Giolito or Cabrera type replacement ideas for Ryan. I know many others won't agree because they see Ryan as being better than I do (and apparently you see him more like I do). I'd actually be ok with replacing Ryan with Varland to start the year, too, if it meant they bring in Burnes and lock him up through 2027 with Lopez to front the rotation. Ryan is never going to be as good as Burnes. The reason their values are similar is because of years of control. If you can turn a lesser pitcher with more control into a better pitcher that you can extend you have to do it 100% of the time, I think.

That's a really interesting thought. The price tags on their young arms are going to be astronomical (way higher than what people are talking about here). Going after the expensive arm may actually be the way to go there. He's controlled through his age 34 season with a pretty high mark to hit to vest his age 35 season (180 innings in his age 34 season) so it's not like he's locked in until he's 40. You may actually be able to center a package around Polanco if you go after him because they want to clear money for Ohtani. I have no idea what their payroll goal is for 2024 so it's hard to say if saving money would be a motivator for them, but I think Castillo is certainly a name they should bring up on their call to Seattle about their arms. I think the bigger hurdle with them is going to be that they want to make the playoffs in 2024, and without Ohtani pitching, Castillo is probably a pretty important part of the reliability of their rotation. But, man, Lopez and Castillo both locked in a the top of the rotation through 2027 would be nice.