chpettit19

I agree there's really nothing I'd want from the Rockies roster in return for Kepler, but to be fair to their pitching prospect list, Chase Dollander was just the 9th overall pick in the draft. I don't think they'd have any interest in trading him, but if that were the return for Kepler I'd be quite happy.

Is Kirilloff's availability not in question this year? He's never played 100 games in a major league season and has now ended 3 straight seasons on the IL followed by offseason surgery. Doesn't sound like his availability question should be any different now. Same with Lewis. He's not exactly a shining example of reliability. If we didn't have Polanco on this team I'd absolutely allocate 10.5 mil to a guy who'd hit in the top 4 or 5 in the order. Would you not? I'd still allocate about 15-17 for Hoskins right now even with Polanco on the team. There's a very real argument to be made that the lineup has every bit the need for added talent at the top that the rotation has. I don't think taking their 2 hole hitter out of the lineup should be taken lightly. That's a big bat to be losing with multiple other injury risks, and regression concerns, on the roster.

There's most certainly talent there. And I won't be upset if they get him (assuming the cost was reasonable). But he's not somebody I'm hoping they're targeting.

This actually isn't true. Breaking balls are the best way to go at altitude. Sliders and curveballs perform better at altitude than fastballs and changeups. The Rockies should be chasing all the high spin, high velocity breaking balls they can find.

You've been trying to show his offense is in severe decline by only using BA. That simply isn't true. He's still one of the best hitters on the team. Yes, his health concerns are very real and are a problem. But so are Buxton's. And Kirilloff's. And Lewis'. Should we also trade all of them? Lewis has played WAY less than 55% of games the past 3 years. Same with Kirilloff. Why should we believe either of them are going to be healthy enough to not open either 3B or 1B for a long stretch of the 2024 season? Since they've literally never played anywhere near a full, healthy MLB season. Do you really prefer Kyle Farmer as the lineup replacement for Kirilloff over Polanco? I sited stats from the last 3 years. Including last year where his OPS+ was 115, but you were trying to sell him as some offensive negative by only showing his BA. I think that's far more "burying one's head" than pointing out that he's been a really good hitter this entire time.

Jorge Polanco hit in the 2 hole for the Twins in the playoffs last year. Were all you people up in arms about them wasting that lineup spot on a clearly diminished Polanco? I don't remember seeing a lot of complaints about him not being worthy of the 2 hole then. But now the Twins have no use for him? My guess would be most of these feelings are based around an idealized world of opening day starting lineup spots and projecting them through the entire season. 1. I'd argue Polanco is likely hitting in the 2 hole for this team if opening day were tomorrow. 2. There's going to be injuries to a bunch of guys on the roster and plenty of ABs to go around. Donovan Solano stepped to the plate 450 times for the Twins last year. Do a lot of people expect him back in 2024 or are those PAs going to have to go elsewhere? Would people really prefer Farmer taking on most of those PAs over Polanco? There's no way the Twins go into 2024 expecting Buxton to be the everyday DH. That'd be a horrible plan. I'd bet Jorge Polanco is currently the opening day DH hitting in the 2 hole. And if Kirilloff's shoulder isn't 100% he's the opening day 1B or 2B. Polanco hasn't been pushed out of the lineup yet.

Why are you only using BA? He OPSed .789 last year. That's a 115 OPS+. He had a 115 OPS+ in 2022 as well. 125 in 2021. Acting like he's falling off some offensive cliff is ignoring a lot. His bat is still legit. The only concern with Jorge is the health of his legs. Jorge Polanco is still one of the 5 or 6 best hitters on the Twins 40-man roster.

I don't think they just need added depth, I think they need added quality depth. 4.24 and 4.01 are definitely respectable numbers, but his career FIP is 4.78 and was 4.43 in 2023. He's going into his age 26 season and has never been close to figuring out his control while playing in one of the better pitching development organizations in professional baseball. I don't know why we'd think it's suddenly all going to click for him here. He's very likely a reliever. If you're good trading Polanco for a likely reliever I'm not going to say that's crazy, but I don't think Cabrera is an answer to the Twins problem. I'm not completely against bringing in Cabrera. He could be a stud of a reliever if he comes in and just throws filthy stuff for an inning at a time. He'd likely be pretty volatile in that role as well as he'd have days where he simply doesn't know where the ball is going, but he'd have a lot of Ks to hopefully be able to manage that in smaller sample sizes. But my hope is that the Twins are attempting to improve upon their 2023 results in 2024. I don't think Cabrera is at all likely to help with that goal as a member of the starting rotation because he simply isn't likely to suddenly find his control now that he's 26 and out of options.

I was replying to yours because you took "scoring runs is important" so literally that you only took into account the number of runs he scored instead of his overall offensive impact to the team as a whole scoring runs, which is the actual important thing.

I don't think simply looking at runs scored is telling you how valuable a player is to a team's offense. Not a very useful stat at all on it's own.

If they view Descalfini as a legit starter I think they have 6 guys now, plus Hancock as the 7th, on their 40-man.

Nice to see some deals start being made. Does this make Seattle more likely to trade someone like Castillo? Do they prefer to start Woo or Miller in AAA so aren't planning to move anymore arms for bats? Dipoto likes to go big so wouldn't be surprised if there's more moves coming from him.

But would need Polanco...

He did. I haven't seen which kind he had, though. I don't even remember what the 2 types are, but I know one has a significantly better positive outcome rate than the other.

“I was on Jeopardy,” added MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park. Haha, that's a great ending line.

There's very few surgeries that worry me in any sport anymore. Shoulders for guys who throw things is about it. Otherwise the guys who don't recover are the outliers so I don't think people need to worry about much after a guy is a year removed from any procedure.

Hoskins was taking BP, fielding, and running the bases with no restrictions during the playoffs last year so he should be 100% recovered from the surgery.

Super small sample sizes on the lefty stuff so there's certainly reason to believe he has more in him there. I'd like to see the Twins get away from so much pinch hitting and focus the platooning more on that day's starter. Especially early in the year. Like through July at least. I don't mind not starting lefties against lefties, but give them a shot to work on their skills by allowing them to face the lefties once the game is going. Give yourself some larger sample sizes in both stats and eyes on in game ABs to get a better idea of whether or not any of the young lefties can succeed against same handed pitchers. As for the LOOGY stuff, I'd actually target Julien more as an opposing manager if Rocco continues to pinch hit for him every time. I'd rather get his bat out of the lineup than the other lefties. If there's a lefty in the 8 or 3 hole I'm using my lefty to catch one of them and Julien (assuming Julien is leading off) 100% of the time if the game situation allows it. I'd certainly expect Julien to be leadoff against any and every righty to start the year. Not sure what other option would make more sense. I don't think he's all that fast (41st percentile in sprint speed last year), but I would like to see if he can snag some extra bags here and there. I'd hope they'd give him the green light early and that it'd just be a matter of how comfortable he is reading the pitcher. I'd hope to see some incremental increase in steals this year. I'd like to see them improve their baserunning overall. Lewis, Julien, Castro, Gordon, Martin, and ERod bring some extra athleticism to the 40-man that we haven't seen a lot of recently. Hopefully that can bring with it some improved base running that includes some steals and more taking of extra bases.

Grichuk, Duvall, etc. wouldn't be terrible signings. Certainly not exciting ones, but I wouldn't be mad about them (depending on the cost). I do fear that they'd pull another Gallo move where they refuse to move on from them in the name of depth or cost or whatever. I don't expect anyone to be as bad as Gallo became, and I don't see a highly likely option for someone to be putting up Wallner numbers that they're blocking, but those mid- to low-tier veteran depth pieces become more harmful than helpful if the FO isn't willing to dump them when it's called for. But not crazy signings by any means. If Clevinger is the best pitcher they bring in this offseason I'm going to be disappointed. He'd be better than the Happ, Shoemaker, broken down Archer days, but I hope (and believe) the FO is aiming higher than him. I think he's a league average pitcher. Which, again, is better than some of their offseason moves, but not what I think they should be bringing in. Thus the "stuck with" comment. If that's as high as they're aiming they should just sign him now. But I think they're aiming higher so he'd be a fall back option late in the offseason if they can't make the move they want.

It's actually a little surprising to me that he struggles so much against lefties. I'd have guessed someone with his eye would have the best chance of succeeding lefty on lefty because he'd be able to lay off pitches better. Hopefully it's just a lack of exposure to them, and he can get in the cage against a bunch of lefties all offseason to get a better feel for reading those pitches and then be able to attack them like he does righties. He's got a chance to be really, really good if he can put it all together. Hopefully we get to enjoy watching him grow in a Twins uni.

For sure you want high OBP guys. As many as you can get. I'm not disagreeing with that at all. I would put them all at the top of the lineup, though. That'd raise the pitch count even quicker as they'd get more ABs. I'm pushing back on how easy it is to "prolong ABs." Hitting major league pitching in this day and age is harder than it's ever been. "Just fight off close pitches with 2 strikes" and "have a 2 strike approach" are thrown around a lot around here. I'm wondering how easy people think that is. Same with "just go the other way." Velocity and movement go up and up every year. It's not that easy to foul off 2 strike pitches on the black. It's not that easy to lay off 92 MPH sliders off the outside corner. Being able to do both is nearly impossible.

I do believe their plan is to use minor leaguers as depth this year. Harrison Bader and Kevin Kiermaier just got $10.5 million deals so I don't see the Twins bringing MAT back as his cost likely went way up with those deals. They're not signing Bellinger and there's really no other CF options worth while on the market so they're either relying on Buxton, Castro, Gordon, and Martin or they're making another trade. I'd bet they plan to rely on those 4 until mid-February when they see what Buxton's knees are looking like. That'd be the earliest I'd expect a CF move. Starting pitching is the only place I think they're really trying to add a legitimate outside piece. Very likely through trade if it's a bigger piece. I'd guess the Snell and Montgomery signings have to happen before any big SP trades happen. I do expect them to bring in another major league starter to push Varland to AAA, but I have no idea if they'll be able to pull off another Lopez-Arraez type deal or if they're going to get stuck snagging a Clevinger, Ryu, or Lorenzen type late in the offseason if they're just never able to find a deal. I'd think they've touched base with a number of teams already and have an idea of what sorts of assets they'd need to give up for certain guys, but those teams may change their tune in terms of acquisition cost depending on where the rest of the FAs go and what sort of competition they can drum up for their available arms. A Cease deal may have to happen before the Twins make a deal for an arm as well (I don't think they're a likely Cease destination). I don't expect much else in terms of movement for the roster. And I don't expect anything "big" to happen until Snell and Montgomery move. Agree that the depth definitely looks different this year, and they're going to be forced to test their development strength at some point. Prato, Helman, and Keirsey types are likely going to get shots. We'll see if any of them can outdo the Contreras types. Hopefully none are needed to play too big a role as this team should have goals that are much bigger than those guys are likely to help them achieve. But you don't have many options when you're cutting payroll. Have to trust the kids.

I don't know if they're "weirdly confident" in their ability to get more control out of these guys or if they are just willing to take fliers on guys and see. If they were signing them to multi-million dollar deals I'd feel more like it was some sort of confidence in their abilities. None of these guys were given anything resembling "we're counting on him" type deal. Any or all of them could be sent packing at any moment. This doesn't look like any sort of extreme confidence, but simply taking fliers and seeing what they can do. None of their salaries are stopping them from bringing in anyone else. No harm in getting guys in your building to see what you can do with them.

How easy do you think it is to go from a "2 strike approach" that doesn't include a "just let it rip" swing to picking up that a "hanger or meatball" is coming while in that "2 strike approach" and switching to your "just let it rip" swing? Killebrew and Allison weren't facing 100 MPH fastballs and low- to mid-80s breaking balls in the same at bat. There's a limit to hitter's abilities to do what you're asking.

Baseball Savant agrees with you. His takes on pitches over the heart of the plate are a problem, his takes in the shadow are not. Unsurprisingly the key to being a successful major league hitter is taking advantage of mistake pitches over the heart of the plate and not trying to be successful on "pitcher's pitches" on the corners.