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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    If you win 85% of the time doing anything that's going to be my plan, yeah. So there were far more blowouts than close games because teams bashed their way to blowouts, but you'd prefer they don't try to do that and instead focus on the outcome that happens less so they can win the close games despite them happening fewer times? Yeah, not following that logic. Should those teams that blew people out by hitting homers have not done that so the games were closer? I'm confused. Nobody said the end of that game went well. I've said in other comments that they K'd too much last year. But this idea that they have some terrible strategy is what's bad logic. You're looking at numbers that clearly show you win more by having more power and you're trying to argue that's a bad strategy. To each their own, but I'll take the plan that wins you 85% of the games.
  2. chpettit19
    Under. But not by much.
  3. chpettit19
    So that was 1 of the 17 wins for teams that K'd less than their opponent. What's the point here? Over the last 3 postseasons teams that out homer their opponents are 71-12. That's an 85.5% win rate.
  4. chpettit19
    There's risk in that strategy, though. He's not the only guy with pieces to move. Eventually other teams move on and you're left holding the bag you started with. He, and you, could be ok with that, but "not good enough yet" sometimes leads to a "we'll just move on then" and that's not always ideal either. The inaction to this point isn't in itself a bad thing, but it's not necessarily a good thing either.
  5. chpettit19
    I think the totals they ran up last year were harmful, and they need to reduce them. But I don't think the problem is strategy, it's talent. Cleveland and Washington had super low K rates, and super low run totals. They couldn't impact the ball well enough to score runs. The Twins have the right strategy (get good pitches to drive and try to drive them) I just think their talent level has been too low to maximize the results. Hopefully Julien, Lewis, and the rest of the young guys can help produce better results with the same strategy by having better talent. We'll see.
  6. chpettit19
    Just some numbers stolen from a Do-Hyoung Park article... In the 2023 playoffs teams that out homered their opponents went 29-7. Teams that K'd less than their opponents went 17-19. So out homering lead to an 80.6 winning % while K'ing less lead to a 47.2 winning %. Do what you will with those numbers.
  7. chpettit19
    No, thanks.
  8. chpettit19
    Entirely possible. I'm just going off the idea that the reported deal that KC reportedly turned down was pretty much a 1 for 1 swap of Luzardo for Pasquantino. Maybe there were some marginal prospects thrown in somewhere, but if the deal included another big name person I think the reports would've indicated that. If the deal really was basically a 1 for 1 swap of those 2 players I think Julien and marginal players is absolutely enough. The question is whether or not that was truly the deal that was discussed, and, more importantly, the Marlins were willing to accept. It sounds like a light return for Luzardo to me, but I can also understand if the Marlins are looking for a young hitter with MLB experience, 130 OPS+ upside, and lots of control. Pasquantino and Julien both fit that mold so it may not be that far off if that's really what the Marlins are looking for. Even if I think it sounds a little light. 3 years of Luzardo vs 6 years of Julien isn't that ridiculous.
  9. chpettit19
    I wouldn't, and I don't think they'd want Jenkins, I think they'd want Julien. And I'd do that trade if I were the Twins.
  10. chpettit19
    All 3 of those players could play 1B. In fact both Julien and Arraez did play some 1B last year. They need offense and I'd think they'd be willing to move one of these guys to 1B if they felt they were the best offensive piece they could get. The Marlins had a 2B last year, too. He was their best player. They moved him to another position (CF) when they got Arraez (it actually sounded like it was his idea to move there).
  11. chpettit19
    The reports I've seen (including a pretty in depth article on The Athletic) report that the Royals FO people brought 2 options to their owner: 1. Trade Pasquantino to Miami for Luzardo or 2. Sign Michael Wacha. The owner decided to spend the extra money. Is that all the details from everyone involved? Of course not. But it sure sounds like a 1 for 1 swap was more or less the deal and the Royals are the ones who turned it down. That doesn't mean the Marlins view Julien, or any other Twins player, the way they view Pasquantino, but if it really was just a 1 for 1 these packages are significant overpays.
  12. chpettit19
    If the Twins scouts and development folks (Maki) think they know what's up with Manoah and can get him back on track they should do that first trade in a heartbeat. He has 4 more years of control left, and he could be the best pitcher on the staff if they get him back to what he was in 2022. A risk no doubt, but I'd much prefer that than trading Polanco for prospects.
  13. chpettit19
    I'd certainly think they could. The packages here are definitely better than straight up for Pasquantino (I actually like him a lot, but he's not a star or anything). I think Julien for Luzardo is probably the core of a deal with a low level prospect thrown in here or there. Again, assuming that it was a 1 for 1 swap that the Marlins were willing to do for Pasquantino. Weird to me that the Marlins would be willing to do that, but it certainly could open the doors for the Twins if that's all it'd take.
  14. chpettit19
    Aren't the reports that the Marlins were willing to trade him to KC for Pasquantino? How valuable do you think Pasquantino is? Would you trade Jeffers, Lee or Jenkins, and Varland for him?
  15. chpettit19
    Have any of the reports about the possible Pasquantino for Luzardo deal suggested there were any other significant pieces that would've been involved? Or are we to believe that it was basically a 1 for 1 swap with maybe a low level lottery ticket thrown in kind of like the Lopez for Arraez deal? If we go with the assumption that it was basically a 1 for 1 swap I'm wondering why the Twins would be giving up more than Julien in a basically 1 for 1 swap. Certainly wouldn't be adding a top 100 global prospect and a viable MLB starting cOF in the deal. Would anyone here trade Julien, ERod, and Kepler for Pasquantino (ignoring the division concerns and just talking talent). I'm not a believer in the BTV stuff so don't know what they rank Pasquantino as, but Julien had basically the same OPS+ and WRC+ as Pasquantino did in his rookie season in 2022. Julien has more control than Pasquantino. And if you believe he can stay at 2B has more defensive value than Pasquantino (I'd argue he's probably best served at playing 1B like Pasquantino, but that's neither here nor there). If it was a 1 for 1 swap of Pasquantino for Luzardo then I think we have a better idea of how the Marlins value Luzardo than using BTV values. What would you give up for Pasquantino? That's, theoretically, what you'd have to give up for Luzardo.
  16. chpettit19
    You've hurt the feelings of Jose Altuve, Xander Bogaerts, Stephen Strasburg, Elvis Andrus, Carlos Gomez, Jered Weaver, and Carlos Gonzalez by suggesting they're "trash players." They were mostly more established players than Lewis, but Boras has done early extensions for some pretty big name players in the past. I don't think he's going to do it this year unless the Twins pay significantly more than what Nick suggests here, but a pre-free agency extension isn't out of the question at some point.
  17. chpettit19
    Or trading for pitchers for the Marlins. Alcantara debuted with St Louis before being traded to Miami. Luzardo debuted for Oakland before being traded to Miami. Sixto Sanchez came from Philly in the Realmuto trade. AJ Puk debuted for Oakland before being traded to Miami. Pablo Lopez was with Seattle before being traded to Miami and debuting the next season.
  18. chpettit19
    I like this idea, but I think it'll be hard to build a package around Kirilloff with his health concerns. I just don't think his value is that high right now. I'd think they'd say no thanks to AK and ask for Julien who'd they'd then slot in at 1B themselves.
  19. chpettit19
    I love the idea of locking Lewis up into his FA years, but I think these numbers are too low to get it done. If he's the star everyone expects him to be his last arb year is going to be closer to 30 than 20 and this is suggesting paying him 15 because you gave him an extra 2 million in year 1. I don't think he goes for that. As a super 2 after next season he's already looking at getting that 5 mil in salary in 2025 anyways. From there he's looking at 10+ in 2026, 20 in 2027, and 30 in 2028. All of this is contingent upon him maintaining his small sample size production in full season sample sizes, but him doing that is the reason you'd want to lock him up in the first place. Over the 5 years before he hits free agency he's in line for $65 million+ if he's the star we want him to be. Soto is going to end up above 75 mil in arb payments if I'm doing my math right (8.5, 17, 23, 30ish). I don't know that Lewis would get all that, but 35 mil is a big gap. I'd think Lewis would need closer to 60 mil for his pre-FA years. But weirder things have happened. I'd definitely be talking to him and Boras about the idea if I were the Twins, though.
  20. chpettit19
    Those are all DHs. I don't expect any of them to be on the Twins radar. Maybe Turner can play some 1B, but if you believe the reports there are multiple teams in on him. Hoskins is probably the only other bat that actually plays a position. The list of viable upgrades is getting awfully short.
  21. chpettit19
    Kyle Garlick is a free agent so I don't think you can count him as a Twins OF option. You list Kirilloff as an OFer and not an IFer even though both Falvey and Rocco have stated the plan is for him to be at 1B and only in the OF as an emergency. Castro is a super utility player so only counting him in the OF isn't accurately showing where he plays. So after taking the FA off your list and switching Kirilloff to the correct area the OF is down to 6 players and the IF is at 6 with Castro giving them both another .5 so the depth is actually pretty close. And that's ignoring the fact that Nick Gordon plays 2B as well and only counting him as an OFer. And Martin has played more IF than OF in his Twins career so I'm not sure why we'd only list him as an OF option.
  22. chpettit19
    18 games?! How many did he win? Or do you think the 2023 Twins should've been a 105 win (best record in baseball) team?
  23. chpettit19
    Some fun with numbers... In the 2023 playoffs teams that out homered their opponents went 29-7. Teams that K'd less than their opponents went 17-19. So out homering lead to an 80.6 winning % while K'ing less lead to a 47.2 winning %. Over the last 3 years those numbers are 71-12 (.855) for out homering and 63-42 (.600) for K'ing less. Looks to me like failing at the "swing for the fences" strategy is what was fatal, not the strategy itself. The Twins certainly need to cut down on the K's, but that's more a talent level problem than a strategy problem. All the best teams in baseball follow the same strategy of looking for pitches to drive and trying to do as much damage as possible with that pitch. The difference is the talent levels and how often guys actually do damage on the pitch.
  24. chpettit19
    If Raya is a bullpen arm it's all the more reason to trade him now when he's likely a well regarded prospect. I'm more concerned about getting to the point where they have enough pitching than I am about them ever having too much pitching. That's why I'd trade prospects for MLB pitching. No team can afford to trade prospects for 1 year guys every year, but the Twins are in a spot where they can afford to trade prospects for someone they can lock into their rotation for years to come because that puts them in a position of having their rotation locked up for years and that gives you the chance to develop more pitching and reconfigure your rotation as you want moving forward. The other poster suggested it wasn't feasible to trade their current top pitching prospects, and I disagree because of the control they have over their current major league pitching.
  25. chpettit19
    FYI, Stuff+ is just movement, spin rate, velo, and release point of pitches. Location+ is more about the command, although it's not basing on hitting the glove, but use pitch-type and count tied to the location of the pitch to judge command. Pitching+ is the combination of command and movement. Not just an averaging of your Stuff+ and Location+, but a totally different model. I believe all 3 of them take into account pitcher and hitter handedness, but I could be wrong on that. Looks like SWR was 10th overall in Stuff+ (116.9) in AAA. 301 in Location+ (100.7 so basically league average). 307 in Pitching+ (100.6). So his stuff is quite good, but his control of it is lacking according to these numbers.
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