chpettit19
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Everything posted by chpettit19
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This absolutely isn't meant to be a shot at Keirsey as he's clearly a talented kid and does things us mere mortals simply can't, but if you're worried about losing Dashawn Keirsey types in the Rule V you're not as close to contending for titles as you'd like to be. I'd like to keep him around, and for that reason I hope he doesn't get picked, but he's not some vital part of a championship team. If the goal is to improve upon last year's results, Dashawn Keirsey simply isn't someone you should be worrying about. I hope he has a wonderful career and finds significant time on a big league roster somewhere. But if it's with the Twins in 2024 the Twins likely aren't winning the division, let alone getting further in the playoffs than they did in 2023. I know many of us follow these players through their minor league careers, and it makes us all (even grumpy naysayers like me) want to see them make it to the Twins and have success there and bring us championships, but the truth is that 27 year old rookies simply aren't difference makers (yes, you can find a guy here and there scattered throughout history as the exceptions to the rule). He's a nice enough depth piece if you have some injuries pop up and need a guy to fill in as your 4th OFer here and there, but he's not somebody you lose sleep over. The focus needs to shift from the bottom of the 40-man to the top. I know it's Rule V day so it's a natural talking point, but the section of the roster we need to be focused on is improving the top 10 guys on the roster, not whether or not the 40th guy is Keirsey, Prato, or some waiver claim like Castro. We tend to worry about losing "our guys" in the Rule V because we only focus on "our system." Speedy, glove first OFers aren't unheard of in other systems. Taking one you can't send up and down as needed for an entire season isn't usually something teams are jumping at the chance to do. I hope Keirsey makes it. I hope he makes me look like a jerk by putting up a great MLB career that just got started later than usual. But if the Twins can't find 4 guys with better chances to help the 2024 MN Twins to fill their last four 40-man spots than Dashawn Keirsey the 2024 Twins are going to struggle to win the central division, let alone make noise in the playoffs.
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Verdugo trade good comp for possible Kepler trade?
chpettit19 posted a topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
There's been various talk for the last few years about Kepler being traded. The Twins indication that they're going to be lowering payroll in 2024 is the driving factor this offseason while it's previously been about a perceived logjam of corner outfielders, especially ones that hit left handed. The Yankees have long been a team Twins fans thought would be a good trade partner for Kepler due to their need in the OF, and their park being very friendly to lefty bats. The Yanks just swung a deal with the hated Red Sox for Alex Verdugo, a lefty hitting corner outfielder. The talk around trades often revolves around "selling high" or trading guys when they have "value." I'm curious what folks think the Verdugo trade says about Kepler's value. Did they get more than you thought it'd be possible for the Twins to get for Kepler? Did they get less? About the same? In assessing what the Verdugo trade could mean for Kepler's value we should probably compare the 2. Both are entering the last year of team control. Kepler for $10 million, and Verdugo for somewhere in the low $9 million range (final year of arbitration). So dollars wise they're quite close. Kepler is older as he enters his age 31 season compared to Verdugo's age 28 season. Last season they were relatively similar in WAR as they came in at 2.9 (Kepler) and 2.6 (Verdugo) respectively in bWAR, and 2.6 (Kepler) to 2.0 (Verdugo) in fWAR. Verdugo played 142 games to Kepler's 130. Kepler had a slash line of .260/.332/.484/.816 with 24 HRs and an OPS+ of 121. Verdugo came in at .264/.324/.421/.745 with 13 HRs and an OPS+ of 100. Clearly Kepler had the better overall season. I prefer a 3 year look back to get a better idea of players who've been in the league for a while so let's take a look at the 2021-2023 stats for both. Kepler had a slash line of .233/.319/.418/.737 with 52 HRs and an OPS+ of 104. Verdugo had a slash line of .277/.334/.417/.751 with 37 HRS and an OPS+ of 103. I think this look at things begs the question of whether you believe Kepler will be closer to his 2023 self, or his previous 3 years self. And the answer to that question likely dictates what sort of value you believe he should be able to fetch in trade. The Red Sox got back 3 pitching prospects (Richard Fitts, Greg Weissert, and Nicholas Judice) in the trade. Weissert has thrown 31 1/3 innings with a 4.60 ERA in the majors over the last 2 years, and is 28 years old. I'd guess they're hoping he can be a 6/7 inning guy for them right away. Judice was an 8th round pick this season and is viewed as a potential reliever down the road due to his fastball/slider combination. Fitts is likely viewed by most as the biggest piece in the return. He's entering his age 24 season and was very good in AA last year (152 2/3 innings, 3.48 ERA, lots of Ks, not bad BB rate). MLB.com had him ranked as the Yanks #12 prospect, and now has him as the #10 Red Sox prospect. What do people think? Is Verdugo a reasonable comp for Kepler? Would you be happy with a similar package in return for Kepler? If another OF needy team calls about Kepler and offers a 24 year old who likely slots in amongst the SWR, Cory Lewis, CJ Culpepper type crowd with a couple reliever fliers should we take it? -
If I were a betting man I'd pick Detroit to finish at least 2nd in the division as of today. Will be interesting to see what they do this offseason as a few big swings that connect could relatively easily push them right up next to the Twins, or even ahead. 2 young cores that both orgs hope are coming together in 2024 with a few more pieces on the way. Pretty similar clubs outside a few extra proven pieces on the Twins side. I fully expect the central to continue to be a horrid division overall, and 87 wins may get you the division title again in 2024, but Detroit is coming. Twins can't get too complacent. I'm not really worried about KC or CHW, even though stranger things have happened than teams like that suddenly coming alive for a season. But on paper there should be a big enough gap that even a 1 year surge from them isn't enough to pass the Tigers and Twins. Cleveland is so hard to judge every year. You expect them to always have pitching at this point, but can they continue to waste it year after year and really never run out as the "veterans" move on/get traded? Their offense is never scary. I know some fans love their "never strike out!" approach, but it leads to terrible contact, and sub-par run scoring totals. They're certainly capable of having their pitching dominate and doing just enough on offense during a given year to be a threat, but I don't see them as all that likely to hit 90 wins or anything. I do think Detroit, Cleveland, and Minnesota are all close enough that the moves made this offseason could really swing who the favorites are going into 2024. I wouldn't bet on any of the central teams winning 90 games, but if all 3 of those teams end up between 80 and 87 wins I wouldn't be surprised. And over 162 games having 3 teams within 7 games of each other is an awfully tight window.
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- offseason
- kenta maeda
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Yeah, there's a 0% chance the FO has changed any of their ways because of fans opinions. If the FO cared so much about fan opinions they wouldn't have traded a fan favorite in Arraez. There is absolutely no basis to this idea. The owners aren't listening to fans either. And the FO couldn't care less what baseball reporters (biased or unbiased) say about their strategies. This is wildly off base. The fanbase is way too split to even think this would be a possibility. This isn't a thing.
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Twins Expect to Add Starting Pitcher This Offseason
chpettit19 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Wrong. That is certainly one way it comes into play, but there are many more. Is it easier to fill a stadium in a larger market with more fans that could attend? When there's more people to fill the same number of seats in a stadium is it then possible to raise the prices for seats? Is it easier to sell more merchandise in a larger market with more people that could buy it? If the market not only has more people, but also a higher median income level is it not easier to do all of these things as well? If you can sell more tickets to your games because of the larger market are you then able to get more for in stadium advertisements? Then you can get into the corporate entities in your market as that's where most of the super high priced seats and boxes go. The TV/radio contract is absolutely not the only place a market advantage comes into play. -
Who is it that "stood up & contradicted the FO" so we don't still have a Cave-ish type CF sub, Polanco playing SS, and Arraez playing 2B? I'd love to know who was so influential that in standing up and contradicting the FO they completely changed the way the FO thinks. Sounds like some powerful folks.
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Which Twins are Untouchable?
chpettit19 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'd say Lewis, Jenkins, and Lopez are the 3 that are really even close to untouchable. I'd trade Ryan in a heartbeat for a #1 pitcher with less control than him if somebody like Milwaukee is interested in getting more control even if it's for a lesser arm. I'd much prefer to lock Duran up long-term, but if someone's willing to give up a top-end starter for a top end reliever I'd do that without thinking twice. I don't think Lee is a star so if he can bring young, controllable pitching I'd move him. Julien improved defensively, but still wasn't even average, and he's never hit lefties which isn't something I love for someone in the top 4 or 5 in my order so he'd be tradeable for me. I don't think ERod has any shot at hitting his ceiling if he can't reduce his K's significantly, and that's way easier said than done. So if somebody wants to give up young, controllable pitching for him I'd do that without thinking twice. Now none of those trades would be to just give these guys away, but in the right deal I wouldn't hesitate to move any of them. As others, including the author, have said, "untouchable" really just means there's not a package out there that would realistically be offered for a player that the Twins would be willing to take. I've been driving the "Lewis is a star" bus since well before he debuted, but I have questions about his ability to stay healthy. He may actually be tradeable in the right deal, but, despite there being strong evidence to the contrary, I can't believe the Twins FO is so incredibly bad at PR that they'd trade the new face of the franchise right after winning their first playoff game in 20 years. So he's probably untouchable right now because of that, and if he maintains his health for all of 2024 I'd expect he's untouchable because of production after next season. Jenkins looks like a guy who could debut at the age of 20 to me, and those aren't guys you trade. And the Twins need more frontline pitching, not less, so I don't see how there's any deal that would be worth it to move Lopez (which wasn't something I thought I'd ever say when that trade was made). Beyond them I think there's realistic packages for anyone else in the Twins org.- 48 replies
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If they can get a top 50 global prospect and Ray while trading away one of their bigger contracts I absolutely hope they do it. I'll spend an extra 15 mil a year for Ray and Ford over Vazquez (or Polanco or Kepler). That'd be a massive win for the Twins, in my opinion. Yeah, I'm not sure exactly what you can do with Dobnak. His salary should hurt the Twins, but large market teams do like to flex their spending power and it not counting towards the tax is even more of a way for them to take advantage. He's an interesting piece for sure.
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That deal only brings in an extra $10 million in 2024 payroll costs. Ray is at 23 mil for 2024, and Dobnak and Vazquez cost 12.25 together. If they're really set on trading Polanco or Kepler and get prospects back for them their payroll is no worse off than it is today. This trade doesn't necessitate a 140-150 payroll. In 2025 Ray is at 25 mil compared to 13.5 for Dobnak and Vazquez. You get him for 12 mil more in 2025 than you're already set to pay those 2. Then in 2026 it's the full 25 as Dobnak and Vazquez are off the payroll by then, but if they're still running 130 mil payrolls in 2026 we should be giving them the As treatment and not showing up to the park. I mean the odds of that specific deal being done are so miniscule it's not even worth discussing, but something like that could definitely be something they're looking at if they're happy with their pitching outside of Ray and want to drop his salary to help spend on someone else. That's what this thread is about. The M's dropping a large pitching contract by attaching a good young player to it. They'd trade for Ray because they can get (in this specific hypothetical) Ford and Clase back while not adding much to their payroll commitments to get a frontline starter. Gray plus Vazquez is 95 mil over the next 3 seasons. Ray while trading Vazquez is 53. That's a financial win for the Twins. Ford is also a 20 year old who mashed at A+ this year like ERod. But Ford plays a premium position while ERod is likely a cOF where it's much easier to find guys who mash. But to each their own. For what it's worth Ford is ranked higher on the end of year national rankings I've seen so it's not like I'm saying anything too crazy. Ford is a top 50 global prospect. Getting him would be an absolute steal for the Twins in a deal like this.
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The Twins are turning down a top 100 prospect, another top 10 system prospect, and a guy that'd be in the running as their #1 pitcher once he's back on the mound in exchange for a AAA pitcher making $2+ mil and a backup catcher making $10 mil? The Twins should jump at that deal if Seattle is willing to make it. That's an absolute steal for the Twins. You'd get a frontline starter for 47.75 mil over 3 years (his 73 minus the 25.25 of Dobnak and Vazquez), plus arguably a top 3 system prospect (I'd take Ford over ERod, and maybe Lee), plus another top 10 system prospect.
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Seattle says no.
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The thing that will stop the Twins from signing Bauer isn't the allegations that got him suspended, but that he's been a notoriously terrible clubhouse guy since his UCLA days. The Twins seem to care a lot about the clubhouse atmosphere and how the team gets along so I don't think they'd ever consider bringing in a guy with Bauer's reputation. If Terry Francona openly talks about having to trade you because you just didn't work in his clubhouse I think it's pretty safe to say the Twins aren't going to try to bring you in. Giolito and Montas types are interesting. I'd add the group of Montgomery, Snell, Stroman, Wacha, Flaherty, and Rodriguez since I don't expect the Twins to be in on Yamamoto at all. I think the problem is that the guys that should give us any kind of real faith that they can be part of a 1-2 punch with Lopez are guys the Twins likely won't even offer deals to because their prices are too high, and the guys they could probably afford are likely better options as secondary additions than being the main addition to the rotation. I think a trade is probably the best bet for them to add someone who has a real shot at forming a 1-2 playoff punch with Lopez. Can they pull off that kind of deal, and how much is it going to cost them?
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The question to me is if the Twins have anyone behind Lopez who can start a playoff game. I think Paddack has the talent to do it, but what kind of shape is his arm going to be in by the time October rolls around? If they need to give him the Archer treatment and start him out with 4 inning starts and hope he builds up to 5 and then 6 innings I'm not overly optimistic that he's going to be good enough come October to be the #2. I know some people love Ryan, but I don't think he's a playoff caliber pitcher (maybe could be your #4 who only makes a couple starts, if any) because he's just too prone to the HR ball, and HRs win in the postseason. Can Ober put together a second full season, and end this one stronger than last year? It'd be a little surprising considering his IP totals up until last year, but I may actually pick him as the most likely one to be worthy of a start come the 2024 playoffs. That's not very encouraging to me, though. Balazovich, Winder, Varland, SWR, Headrick, Sands, Festa, etc. are all nice enough regular season arms to help win this horrid division, but none of them should be counted on to start a 2024 playoff game. If one of them takes a leap and is that good, great, that's a wonderful problem to have, but going into the season expecting that would be a horrible plan. Is Paddack a viable rotation option for 2024? For the regular season, yes. But the question after last year has to be framed around the postseason. Do the Twins have any viable playoff rotation options outside of Lopez for 2024? I'd argue it's not the end of the world to plan on 1 of Paddack, Ryan, or Ober being that guy, but they still need to bring in another from outside the organization. I don't think an IL stint here or there takes Paddack out of being a viable rotation option. But expecting him to do more than cover Maeda's 106 innings is probably expecting too much of him. Could he do it? Yes, it's totally possible. But should you plan for it? I'd say no. I hope they can pull another rabbit out of their hats and find a way to bring in someone who can go 150+ innings of 4 or lower ERA.
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Why the Twins Should Reconsider Cost Cutting
chpettit19 replied to Adam Friedman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If that salary was your personal "profit" and put into your savings account not to be spent, then, yes, you would be a millionaire now. The Twins publicly reported profit (not revenue, profit) over the last 20 years is nearly $260 million. As in they already paid all their bills and still had 260 million left over. Your analogy doesn't work the way you thought it did. You're the one comparing things wrong. Profit is what comes after they paid all their bills, not their total revenue which is what your take home pay is. -
Why the Twins Should Reconsider Cost Cutting
chpettit19 replied to Adam Friedman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I understand what the market score is. It's a representation of the likely potential for revenue in a certain market based on a variety of variables that is signed off on by both the owners and players that has direct impact on teams both financially (revenue sharing) and in team building (draft pick compensation). I never claimed it was revenue. The point is that this constant "we're a small market so there's just no way we can spend" doesn't need to be blindly accepted. Plenty of teams in similarly sized, or smaller, markets out spend the Twins because they do better at maximizing their markets. Why can't the Twins be one of those teams? Your claim was that the Twins would still be significantly lower in revenue than the Braves even with a sustained run of success like the Braves. My counter is that that doesn't just have to be an accepted truth like there's no possible way the Twins can out produce teams in larger markets. It happens all the time. -
Why the Twins Should Reconsider Cost Cutting
chpettit19 replied to Adam Friedman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Why does that kind of run of success have to "leave the Twins woefully short on revenue comparatively?" Maybe you think the MLB CBA's market scores are just nonsense that shouldn't carry any weight, but I've added it below anyways. Look at the 4 teams right above the Twins. Houston, Texas, and Atlanta all have run out top 10 payrolls in the last few years, and all have rings from those teams. Look at the teams below the Twins. Colorado's terrible and they find ways to roll out sizable payrolls (roughly the same as the Twins this year). St Louis almost always finds a way to outspend the Twins. Why are we so convinced there's just no way to spend more in this market? Maybe I'm just completely unreasonable, but why do we have to just accept that there's simply no way a well run (business and baseball sides) Twins organization can't get significant revenue boosts from sustained success? Other teams find ways. Why can't the Twins? -
Why the Twins Should Reconsider Cost Cutting
chpettit19 replied to Adam Friedman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It matters because, as much as we don't want to admit it around here, the higher payrolls win more. They just do. The Rays are an outlier. I know everyone likes to point to them and say "see! You don't have to spend to win!" But how many rings do they have? How many do they have from that pitching factory over there in Cleveland? No, spending doesn't guarantee you success and championships, but looking at history, not spending sure gets you awfully close to guaranteeing you don't win championships. The payroll matters. Unless your goal isn't winning rings. And that's totally fine. Fan how you want to fan. But if the goal is a World Series title, you're gonna wanna start hoping the Twins spend more. There's no way the Twins could've made hundreds of millions of dollars in 20 years? That's a 10 million a year average profit, right? Am I doing my math wrong or is 10 million a year over 20 years 200 million? No rational accounting measure could get there? Yeah, we're just not going to agree on that. I keep coming back to money because everyone tells me it's a business and I shouldn't expect them to spend more than they make. So we talk about payroll. The Twins are a business. I'm not asking them to run themselves as anything other than a business. I'm just asking them to run their business better. Like plenty of other teams in the mid-market range have done, and won with. Run your team better. Run your business better. From the Pohlads on down. And you can make more, and spend more. And you win more. -
Why the Twins Should Reconsider Cost Cutting
chpettit19 replied to Adam Friedman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
No, the conversation has been about the Twins organization, not the FO. The FO doesn't set the payroll budget they just work within it. The FO doesn't control the business side of things. The payroll budget is set by the Pohlads and Dave St Peter. For what it's worth the Twins reported a negative 27 million operating income in 2023 and a positive 10 million in 2022. If you're one who believes the public numbers there's your answer. Public numbers suggest a 7 mil loss in 2003 and 500k loss in 2004. From the public numbers I'm told to believe the Twins have a positive $257.9 million operating income since 2002. And that's with a $49 million loss in 2020 from the pandemic. Again, all very rough numbers that I don't think much weight should be placed because there are far too many ways companies can work their books to make things look how they want so without the actual books those numbers don't mean much to me. But when you say "worry about the product, not the payroll" it rings incredibly hollow to me because the Pohlads appear to do nothing but worry about the payroll so why shouldn't I? I have said "the way they run the organization" at least 6 times in this thread. I've mentioned maximizing their market numerous times. I've said I don't expect them to operate at a loss consistently, I expect them to run their organization in a way that allows them to maintain payrolls consistent with the market's potential. I've provided the CBA determined market potential as compared to Atlanta since Atlanta's books are publicly available. I haven't really discussed the FO and their team building at all. Only complaints I've had in this thread about them are that Falvey should've stuck to his usual "the Pohlads are great and provide us with every resource we need" when he was asked about the payroll. My entire complaint has been, from my very first post where I laid out Atlanta's numbers compared to the Twins, that they aren't maximizing the Minnesota market and we should absolutely blame the team for that when they tell us they're going to cut payroll. My expectations are that they should do better to earn our hard earned money, and valuable time, instead of cruising along making hundreds of millions of dollars from a publicly funded stadium while providing far more bad product than good, and then when they finally get what may be a good product cutting resources to that product. Free agency isn't the only way to spend money. There's a bunch of trades on this site that fans are saying "yeah, it'd be nice but we can't afford that player." Like Pete Alonso for example. They've already lost their #2 pitcher. Fans are suggesting they fill that hole by trading guys who reasonably hit in the 2 and 4 holes in their playoff lineup. Maybe they'll pull a rabbit out of their hat and thread the needle of improving the team while cutting payroll and trading a piece or 2 from the heart of their already not good enough lineup. Odds say that isn't likely. Banking on Lewis and Kirilloff to play more than 100 games, let alone 150 games, in the majors for the first time in either of their lives while producing heart-of-a-playoff-lineup type production is a massive bet. Expecting Wallner to close the massive hole in his swing that covers basically the entire inner third of the plate so he can maintain his production for a full season after the league has found his weakness is a massive bet. Expecting Jeffers to maintain his league best catcher OPS as "the guy" behind the plate is a massive bet. Expecting Bailey Ober to complete just his 2nd healthy professional season ever while maintaining his production is a massive bet. I follow prospects as much as just about everyone, and get all excited for guys to come up, too, but the idea that they don't have much to worry about doesn't make sense to me. I am worrying about the product. The product won 87 games in a historically bad division while playing fewer than half of their total games against teams that finished above .500. They weren't bad, but the idea that they're on the doorstep of being great doesn't make sense to me. Lewis was hurt again. Kirilloff ended another season on the IL needing surgery. Buxton looks to be closer to retirement than ever being the guy he's shown flashes of being. Miranda cratered. They have to replace the production of the Cy Young runner up. Brock Stewart has to be a lights out late inning guy instead of a 32 year old who hadn't been in the majors since before the pandemic. Thielbar has to be a shutdown lefty again. They need a CFer and legit players behind their injury prone corner infielders. Prospects fail far more than they succeed. 2nd year players fail all the time after teams find their weaknesses. People are acting like this was the Dodgers or Braves who steamrolled through the regular season and just had a hiccup in a short series. They aren't that. And taking resources away when they have real holes that need to be filled hurts their ability to truly improve this team. Doesn't make it impossible. But I'm not going to pretend it isn't a slap in the face to fans whom the Pohlads have made hundreds of millions off with a publicly funded stadium. The team owes the fans better whether people think it makes financial sense for 2024 or not. -
What's the return and how are you filling 2 OF spots after the trade? Those are 2 really hard things to get right if you're looking to improve in 2024 while also slashing payroll. I don't expect Kepler to be able to maintain his 2nd half production for the whole 2024 season so if someone is willing to give a return that is more inline with a package that reflects his 2nd half more than the last 3 years combined I think that's a win in the trade, but then how are you filling 2 OF spots, including CF for 2024? Larnach is never going to be the defender Kepler is so you'd be betting something finally clicks and he's a significantly better hitter than Kepler. I think you lose that bet. Is there a cOF on the FA market that is likely to be a better all around player than Kepler in 2024 while not being too expensive to fit in the new, lower payroll? I don't think so. Same thing for Gordon. Is the team better off with Castro as an everyday LFer or the utility guy? I'd argue very strongly the utility guy role. Can Austin Martin hit the ground running as an everyday LFer and the team be better than 2023? I'd argue no. If you're just trying to maximize return on an individual asset, this is clearly the time you'll get the most value for Kepler. If you're trying to compete in 2024 the equation gets much more complicated.
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Why the Twins Should Reconsider Cost Cutting
chpettit19 replied to Adam Friedman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is a great conclusion to our back and forth on this thread. For the 4th time now I get to tell you I'm not asking them to spend as much as Atlanta. You speak about my bias, but you can't even get out from behind yours to read what I'm actually saying despite me saying it 3 times previously. I want them to run their team better. I want them to maximize the potential in this market. I'm not asking them to blindly spend the same as Atlanta. I have argued from the very beginning that they'd still be below Atlanta even if they do what I'd like them to do. Yes, Atlanta has a revenue advantage, but the size of that advantage is because of how they run their team and because they've maximized the Atlanta market. That is what I'm asking the Twins to do. Run your team better so you can actually maximize this market. It takes very little vocabulary acumen to conclude that run and spend are two different words, yet here we are with me telling you for the 4th time that I'm not asking them to spend like Atlanta. They have to spend differently out of necessity, they don't have to be run differently. -
Why the Twins Should Reconsider Cost Cutting
chpettit19 replied to Adam Friedman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's really easy to say "focus on the product, not the payroll" when the product may actually be getting good. What about the product for nearly all of the 2010s? Do you think the Pohlads were "eating it" for all those years when focusing on the product was not so appealing or do you think they made a whole bunch of money off those horrible teams? I also think it's a huge stretch to think their 2023 payroll was 33m over what they thought it was going to be. You think they were expecting to run out a 122ish mil payroll in 2023, but were offering Correa a massive deal from the beginning of the offseason? They were trying to sign him from the jump so I find it very hard to believe they weren't planning for a payroll well north of 120 mil. -
Why the Twins Should Reconsider Cost Cutting
chpettit19 replied to Adam Friedman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm a fan. That's short for fanatic. I'm supposed to be fanatical. So I'm glad I'm being what I'm supposed to be. BTW...Any junior level financial analyst could make it look publicly like their company is making less than they actually are. I wonder which junior level financial analyst would have the upper hand. The one with the actual books or the one with the "reported" (that's a direct quote from your precious "subscription service") operating numbers? -
Why the Twins Should Reconsider Cost Cutting
chpettit19 replied to Adam Friedman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To be fair, The Battery is only part of the Braves because Liberty Media chose to make it part of the Braves. They absolutely could've held that in their main company and not spun it off with the Braves, but they chose to put it with the Braves instead. The Pohlads choosing to push revenue driven by the Twins into another of their entities so as not to be expected to invest it back in the Twins is what frustrates many fans. -
Why the Twins Should Reconsider Cost Cutting
chpettit19 replied to Adam Friedman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah, I don't care what Spotrac says the Twins revenue in 2022 was. You're more than welcome to believe the numbers from people who have no access to the Twins books. I haven't complained about the 2023 payroll either. I'm complaining about slashing the 2024 payroll. I haven't said they were a bad team either. At this point you're arguing against things I'm not even saying. My argument is that if they maximize this market they still wouldn't make as much revenue as the Braves when they maximize the Atlanta market, but they'd make more money than they do now. My argument is that they're not maximizing the Minneapolis market. Again, you're arguing against things I'm not even saying. Ah, yes, the old "impatient Twins fans" argument. Yeah, we haven't been patient at all. You're right. You can't simultaneously complain about me saying a division winning team is bad (which, again, I never said) and suggest the fans need "to be patient and wait for a core to develop." All I hear all over these boards is that the core is here. The time is now. They have Lewis, and Julien, and Wallner, and Kirilloff, and Jeffers, and Ryan, and Ober, and Lopez, and Correa, and Martin on the way, and Lee on the way, and ERod on the way. Every thread about a possible trade is full of people saying "you can't trade the young guys cuz they're the core and they're here!" They were just in the ALDS and you want more patience? When do we stop getting to be patient? If it's not after the first playoff wins in 20 freaking years when is the time? Hey, if you think Dave St Peter has held his job as president and CEO of the Twins organization for over 20 years while the team loses money regularly more power to you. I tend to think that people get fired from those positions if the organization they're running loses more money than it makes, but maybe I really don't understand how business works. Is it not more realistic to believe that he's held that job for as long as he has because the Twins make the Pohlads a lot of money? I think it is, but maybe I'm just way off base on what they expect from him. But, if I'm right, and the Twins are making the Pohlads money and that's why they keep the guy in charge of the organization's finances in place for over 2 decades, then I don't think it's unreasonable to ask them to invest in a team that just went to the ALDS instead of destroying their own momentum and slashing payroll. Or we can just be more patient and wait another 20 years for a playoff win and maybe then "a core" will have developed and then it'll be reasonable to ask the Pohlads to invest for a year.

