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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Offensively? 2020-2022 Kepler was absolutely not better than Teoscar offensively. .760, .719, .666 were Kepler's OPS's from 2020-2022. Teoscar's down season last year was a .741 OPS. He was over .800 from 2020 through 2022. Team's don't pay for corner outfield defense, they pay for corner outfield offense. That's why I said Teoscar is getting paid to thump and if Kepler goes back to being more valuable for defense than offense he's not getting the QO. No chance they put a QO on Kepler if he's back under a .750 OPS. Again, it all comes down to Kepler's bat. 2020-2022 Kepler isn't getting anywhere near 50 mil (I'm just not going to talk about Polanco's possible contract because he's under control for 2 more years so the situation is very different). Team's don't pay for corner defense. If he puts up another .800 OPS season he'll likely get a QO assuming the Twins are willing to pay him that 20 mil if he accepts (that's a real question in this). But .750 OPS Kepler has no shot at a QO.
  2. chpettit19
    Whether the QO came into play or not I'd be pissed if they traded either of them for a mediocre prospect. 1 year of Kepler and 2 of Polanco are both worth more than that. And to be fair, the QO doesn't automatically net them a pick after the first round. They'd have to sign for more than 50 mil to get that. Otherwise it's a pick after competitive balance round B so right before the 3rd round, and that's a significantly worse prospect pool to be choosing from. That Teoscar deal makes it plausible that Kepler could be QO worthy next year (2 years for Polanco drastically changes the equation so I don't know that it's worth talking about), but that equation still comes down to how likely teams think it is that Kepler can maintain his offensive success from last year. Teoscar is getting paid to thump. If Kepler is back to being more valuable on defense than offense his QO worthiness isn't the same. This all really comes down to how good teams think Kepler's bat will be. And he's shown a huge variance on that. And on a related side note, the Twins ability/willingness to pay Kepler 20 mil in 2025 also comes into play here. If their payroll is going to remain in the 130 range for 2025 it changes their willingness to "risk" Kepler accepting the QO and having to pay him 20+ mil.
  3. chpettit19
    Fully healthy Paddack under 120 innings?! That'd be absolutely shocking, and I don't have any idea how they get through the season with Paddack in their rotation if he doesn't even throw 120 innings. Are you suggesting they're going to move him to the pen around the all star break? Because that'd be about what it takes to pull that off. They need 2 more MLB starting pitchers if they won't let a fully healthy Paddack go more than 120 innings. He's not a viable member of the rotation at that point. I have no idea how they'll use Canterino. My best bet would be that he starts the year in A+ or AA as a starter and works his way up from there on short 3 or 4 inning starts before possibly being moved to the pen if he's showing his typical performance and the Twins have a need late in the year.
  4. chpettit19
    Which is totally fine. Good luck building a winner without ever paying for premium talent (even the Rays hand out big contracts here and there, so do the Guardians). If you have 3 guys in your rotation, your closer, 2 IFers, and at least 1 OFer on league minimum deals you can afford to splurge on a 30 mil guy. If they weren't paying Correa where would that 30 mil go? The other poster mentioned 30 mil being the difference between a legit #1 starter and a hopeful #5. Well our league minimum starters are Ryan, Ober, and Varland. Are those "hopeful #5s?" Is Brooks Lee anything more than a hopeful MLB quality SS? Sure, in a vacuum having 1 guy take up 33 mil of a 120 mil payroll isn't ideal, but this isn't a vacuum. Where else should that money go for this real life team that is a clear and obvious upgrade to the 2024, and future, Twins teams that no longer would include Carlos Correa?
  5. chpettit19
    Polanco is more complicated as he would have to be good for 2 more years before the QO could be put on him. But I'll admit I was shocked by that Teoscar deal. It's tough to really gauge anything the Dodgers are doing this offseason vs what it means for the rest of the league, but that deal was aggressive. It also included some deferred money (Dodgers loving that move these days) so it's not a straight comparison, but I'll admit it made me more accepting of a possible Kepler QO if he were able to maintain his overall production for another year. I've always been of the belief that you need to get a real return for either of those guys in general because of where they rank in talent on the Twins club, but I'd definitely be mentioning the QO possibility in talks with other teams about Kepler now. You are looking less crazy! 😄
  6. chpettit19
    I don't think they'll have any pre-set inning limitations on any of them, including Paddack. If they let Ober rip off 167 innings last year after he threw 72.2 the year before I can't imagine they're going to limit Paddack significantly. The reports I saw on Canterino were that he was cleared to throw 125+ innings this year after throwing 0 last year and 37 in 2022. If they're going to let that happen I can't imagine they're going to limit Paddack significantly if he's rolling with the big club. I think performance, and in season health, will be the only limiting factors when it comes to inning counts. Will there be some times where a start is cut short? Sure. Will they build Paddack up with some 80 pitch starts early? Quite possibly. But I think they let them all go as much as they can. They still need plenty of depth behind them because injuries will happen, but I don't think they're going to manufacture ways to significantly limit innings on anyone.
  7. chpettit19
    He got that "prove-it" deal last year. I'd be very surprised to see him take a 2nd one. Although, I believe Boras has come out and said it'll take 200 mil to sign him so there's a chance the market he's expecting never materializes and he does something crazy. But I'd be quite surprised. Would be fun as a Twins fan if this played out like this, though!
  8. chpettit19
    @Jamie Cameron have you heard from Twins officials that he's likely to start at A+ or is that just your educated guess? I was thinking they're probably going to start him back at A ball to get his season going for a month or so before jumping him up. Him starting at A+ would be a fabulous sign so I hope that's how it works out!
  9. chpettit19
    So Polanco wouldn't be an upgrade on Rojas when it comes to improving on the team's OPS+? Didn't you just prove our arguments that Jorge Polanco is an upgrade on Rojas as a hitter?
  10. chpettit19
    It is the case. You don't even have to be a pro scout to watch both Correa and Lee field and see that they're not even close to the same level. Lee has physical limitations that simply will not allow him to be the type of fielder Correa is, and has been. A "decent hitter?" Unless you believe 29 year old Correa has no chance of bouncing back moving forward after his injury plagued 2023, he is far more than a "decent hitter." By any measure. If you're convinced Correa's toast at the age of 29, ok. But he has a career OPS+ of 124. That is far better than "decent," especially for a SS. He had a 138 OPS+ in 2022 for the Twins. Chances are Correa's "outperformance" isn't "marginal," it's significant. $30MM is also the difference between a superstar SS and a hopeful MLB quality SS. Are Louie Varland, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan all worse options than Brooks Lee would be? Because when you talk about "true legit #1 starter and hopeful #5" those are the league minimum guys you're talking about. It's the same argument. Your argument seems to be that the Twins would be better off having Brooks Lee (or Noah freaking Miller apparently) at SS and Jordan Montgomery (just an available FA option) in the rotation over having Louie Varland in the rotation and Carlos Correa at SS. I fail to see the dramatic difference.
  11. chpettit19
    If Julien is too much of a statue to play 1B why do you have him penned in to 2B so solidly that Polanco doesn't even have a spot on your 13 man position player roster? If "guys have to be very good at a position to play it for more than a handful of innings once in a while in the Show" why is Julien your starting 2B if he's a "defensive statue?" I don't think they need to "commit to play Polanco at first." I think he could slide over there tomorrow and hold his own. Same with Farmer. You've suggest Miranda as the Kirilloff partner at 1B. Do you think he's "very good" at 1B? Do you think he's better than Polanco would be? I can't follow the logic in your arguments.
  12. chpettit19
    He was 20th amongst SSs in 2023 in OAAs. But that's not even the key to Lee not being as good as him. Lee is the point here. Lee simply isn't that kind of fielder, and has nowhere near the arm strength.
  13. chpettit19
    I like the idea of looking at other guys Seattle may actually be willing to trade in pursuit of Polanco so certainly wasn't trying to diminish this thought exercise. Clase is interesting. I don't know that I'd be excited if he were the headliner of a Polanco return. I don't like that he's already on the 40-man, and not MLB ready (in my opinion). Definitely an intriguing speed/power combo, but he feels like a really raw kid still. I haven't watched him play a bunch or anything so could be completely wrong, but that's just my read on him from what I've looked at the last couple months as Seattle became a popular Polanco/Kepler destination option. Has sort of a "faster, but less potent bat" Emmanuel Rodriguez feel to him. High Ks and BBs with low batting average and pretty good power. Certainly intriguing, but I'm not as high on Rodriguez as others so a lesser version of him isn't something that is super exciting to me. If he were to come back in a Polanco trade I'd certainly want other prospects coming with.
  14. chpettit19
    You asked if there are other guys people would be interested in from their org outside their pitchers and Ford is the guy. I doubt they'd make him available either. But I'm not interested in dumping Polanco for a random smattering of B or C level prospects. I don't think that helps the Twins in any way. So Ford is who I'd be interested in. Or Cole Young, but that's not a likely possibility either. I just don't see any appeal in dumping 2 years of Polanco for guys who'd join the Twins stable of B and C level prospects. They have enough of those already.
  15. chpettit19
    Then you just flip Julien over to 1B and put Polanco at 2B like they did last year when Kirilloff was down. Do you honestly think Farmer can play SS but can't play 1B? Do you think Polanco played SS his whole life before moving to 2B but couldn't shift over to 1B for 50 games?
  16. chpettit19
    Brooks Lee has no shot at ever being the fielder Correa is. 0% chance. That simply isn't ever going to happen. And he's also unlikely to ever be the hitter Correa has been when healthy. Lee ever putting up 1 full season with a 130+ OPS+ would be a great outcome for the Twins. Suggesting Lee is going to pass Correa this season is a real hot take.
  17. chpettit19
    Harry Ford.
  18. chpettit19
    Lewis, Kirilloff, Miranda, Buxton, Martin, and Gordon if "missed half the season" is a large part of the criteria... Do you honestly believe Polanco is the least valuable player out of those 15 players you named? Martin can hang in AAA until he actual has a healthy and dominant season. Gordon is nowhere near the player Polanco is. Polanco is a better player than Farmer. Polanco is better than Castro. He's better than Larnach. And Miranda. Even assuming he hits the IL multiple times. And as for your "who pairs with Kirilloff at 1B question," Polanco does. And Farmer does. Julien can move there if Kirilloff gets hurt. Kepler's played there before if you really want to get into it. If Kirilloff is hurt they call someone up. If Kirilloff isn't hurt why can't they just let the guy they think is their best pure hitter face lefties, thus not needing a pairing with him at all? "We need a short side of a platoon bat for 1B" is not a convincing argument at all when it comes to dumping your 2 hole hitter, sorry.
  19. chpettit19
    The comment I responded to included Gallo so I probably should've quoted your initial comment, too. I was responding to your original question of "would you pay someone like Polanco 10M this year if he wasn't already on the roster" and tied it in with your comment on Kirilloff's availability. The Gallo stuff wasn't really on my radar, I should've been more clear.
  20. chpettit19
    I agree there's really nothing I'd want from the Rockies roster in return for Kepler, but to be fair to their pitching prospect list, Chase Dollander was just the 9th overall pick in the draft. I don't think they'd have any interest in trading him, but if that were the return for Kepler I'd be quite happy.
  21. chpettit19
    Is Kirilloff's availability not in question this year? He's never played 100 games in a major league season and has now ended 3 straight seasons on the IL followed by offseason surgery. Doesn't sound like his availability question should be any different now. Same with Lewis. He's not exactly a shining example of reliability. If we didn't have Polanco on this team I'd absolutely allocate 10.5 mil to a guy who'd hit in the top 4 or 5 in the order. Would you not? I'd still allocate about 15-17 for Hoskins right now even with Polanco on the team. There's a very real argument to be made that the lineup has every bit the need for added talent at the top that the rotation has. I don't think taking their 2 hole hitter out of the lineup should be taken lightly. That's a big bat to be losing with multiple other injury risks, and regression concerns, on the roster.
  22. chpettit19
    There's most certainly talent there. And I won't be upset if they get him (assuming the cost was reasonable). But he's not somebody I'm hoping they're targeting.
  23. chpettit19
    This actually isn't true. Breaking balls are the best way to go at altitude. Sliders and curveballs perform better at altitude than fastballs and changeups. The Rockies should be chasing all the high spin, high velocity breaking balls they can find.
  24. chpettit19
    You've been trying to show his offense is in severe decline by only using BA. That simply isn't true. He's still one of the best hitters on the team. Yes, his health concerns are very real and are a problem. But so are Buxton's. And Kirilloff's. And Lewis'. Should we also trade all of them? Lewis has played WAY less than 55% of games the past 3 years. Same with Kirilloff. Why should we believe either of them are going to be healthy enough to not open either 3B or 1B for a long stretch of the 2024 season? Since they've literally never played anywhere near a full, healthy MLB season. Do you really prefer Kyle Farmer as the lineup replacement for Kirilloff over Polanco? I sited stats from the last 3 years. Including last year where his OPS+ was 115, but you were trying to sell him as some offensive negative by only showing his BA. I think that's far more "burying one's head" than pointing out that he's been a really good hitter this entire time.
  25. chpettit19
    Jorge Polanco hit in the 2 hole for the Twins in the playoffs last year. Were all you people up in arms about them wasting that lineup spot on a clearly diminished Polanco? I don't remember seeing a lot of complaints about him not being worthy of the 2 hole then. But now the Twins have no use for him? My guess would be most of these feelings are based around an idealized world of opening day starting lineup spots and projecting them through the entire season. 1. I'd argue Polanco is likely hitting in the 2 hole for this team if opening day were tomorrow. 2. There's going to be injuries to a bunch of guys on the roster and plenty of ABs to go around. Donovan Solano stepped to the plate 450 times for the Twins last year. Do a lot of people expect him back in 2024 or are those PAs going to have to go elsewhere? Would people really prefer Farmer taking on most of those PAs over Polanco? There's no way the Twins go into 2024 expecting Buxton to be the everyday DH. That'd be a horrible plan. I'd bet Jorge Polanco is currently the opening day DH hitting in the 2 hole. And if Kirilloff's shoulder isn't 100% he's the opening day 1B or 2B. Polanco hasn't been pushed out of the lineup yet.
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