chpettit19

I think his lack of games from 2017-2019 put a pretty big hole in his HOF candidacy already. He'll have to have a pretty incredible stretch through his early 30s to get on a HOF track. Wouldn't at all be surprised to see him last a year or 2 on the ballot, but I don't think he's really been on a HOF track to this point because he played 352 games during a 4 year stretch from 2017-2020 (2020 obviously not being his fault at all). If he'd put up career norm numbers over 150+ games during that stretch he'd be in a pretty good position to make a run at the HOF, but I don't think he can get there on longevity and his peak was cut down by injuries so he doesn't really have a great 6 or 7 year stretch to point to.

I feel like I used to be one of the main optimists around here but this offseason I've been a bit of a downer. I blame Falvey for telling us they're cutting payroll and upsetting me before the offseason really even began! But I do hope all you optimists are right, and I'm very much looking forward to the season!

"He was cooked last year and his head wasn't screwed on right" is how you started things on this thread. Not a large leap to "writing him off" from "he was cooked and his head wasn't screwed on right." But I apologize for my misinterpretation of your words. I don't know what was going on between his ears, and there's almost no chance you, or anyone on here, can convince me they know what's going on between any player's ears unless they know them personally. I'm going to take the bold guess and assume you don't personally know Alek Manoah. The Twins are actually pretty well known for adjusting pitch usage and sequencing under this regime to get improved results so if his only problem was pitch sequencing I'm even more on board with bringing him in. We have a different level of risk aversion. It's all good. I don't expect Manoah to be wearing a Twins jersey at any point in his career, but if they could turn Polanco or Kepler into Manoah I'd take it. We'll just have to agree to disagree here.

I'll say I certainly hope you're right even if that's not how I'd bet. I will point out that Ryan had a drop in production the 2nd half of 2022 as well. I don't put as much on the injury as others do. 14 starts with 2.99 ERA in 75.1 innings during the first half of 2022 followed by 13 starts with a 4.14 ERA in 71.2 innings in the second half. They're both certainly talented guys and I'm glad to have them on the Twins. But I don't see much room for growth beyond Ober being able to sustain his strength longer into the year. I'm ok with the idea that 1 of them is likely able to fill the #3 spot in a playoff rotation in 2024 (I don't care about 1-5 rankings for pitchers, I care about how much I trust them to start a playoff game), but I think there's a real need to add someone above them if you really want to give yourself a good shot in the playoffs. I agree Sonny Gray is very unlikely to ever have another season like he did in 2023, and I think that contract is going to look pretty bad in a couple years as it escalates. I also agree they can have a similarly successful rotation by improving in the aggregate. But I'm less confident in the internal pieces being able to do that as you seem to be. Which is all good. Front offices disagree on players and rosters all the time so it's pretty normal for us internet GMs to disagree as well. But I am happy to have the pieces we currently have. Even if I think they're likely a step below where we need them to be to truly take a step forward as a contender.

He was 3rd in Cy Young at the age of 24. If that's not a "possible Cy Young winner" I don't know what is. Has to be 2nd? It was 1 bad year. Yes, I did follow him, and he was a mess. Not at all denying that. But there aren't many humans on the planet with his talent for throwing a baseball. You're willing to write off a kid who just turned 26 a week ago because of 1 year. Cool. I am open to the possibility that his entire professional career before that 1 year may be a sign that he could still be very good. We'll just have to agree to disagree that 1 horrid season at the age of 25 means the guy's career is absolutely over.

Lopez wasn't in great shape before last offseason. He actually gave a lot of credit to the fact that he changed his workout regimen and diet to get in much better shape for last year so he could stay stronger throughout the season. No he was never as big of a guy as Manoah, but it took him until after his age 26 season to kick it into high gear in terms of working hard to be great by changing his workouts and diet. Manoah is going into his age 26 season. Now Manoah is a big ol' boy and I don't know what goes into his diet, but I do see him working out and throwing a great deal on social media every offseason. CC Sabathia is another 6'6" pitcher and he was even heavier than Manoah. I don't know if Manoah works hard enough or has the same desire as Lopez to be great, but it took Lopez until this point in his life and career to really dedicate himself and there's certainly examples of guys as big as Manoah being really good. We also simply don't know what effort he's putting in to "try to stay in shape." Like I said, there's many videos of him working out and throwing on social media. I'd hope the Twins would do their due diligence on him and his makeup before making a deal, but there's a chance he's just a big dude even though he's putting in as much work as anyone else.

While I think we probably underrate them a little, and it's likely because we watch them far more often than we watch other teams so we see their warts and people tend to have large emotional reactions to negative performances so they stick in our memories more, I think it's pretty unlikely that either develops significantly from here on out. Not impossible, but they're both going to pitch most of this season at the age of 28 so it's likely they've reached about as high as they're going to in terms of talent. Ober could increase his value by showing he can pitch 150+ innings regularly for a few years, but there's not a whole lot of guys in their late 20s who see a sudden spike in development.

If his current value isn't that high why are we talking about him as a potential MVP candidate? He's a top-50 global prospect. I may just be misunderstanding what you and others are trying to say about his value. If those other prospects "way overshadow" his value then why are we concerned about a soon to be 21 year old who's value is overshadowed by 23 year old Drew Gilbert? If his potential right now should be seen as possible future MVP candidate (that's what I'm understanding people are arguing) his value is likely at it's peak. Every team likely views him a least a little bit differently from all the others. But I don't understand the argument of a top-50 global prospect's value being "not real high." If it's not real high as he enters his age 21 season as a top-50 prospect it's not likely to get higher, it's likely to get lower. Isn't it more likely that his contact issues are exposed rather than improved as he faces better pitchers, thus pushing his value down and not up? I admit I'm lower on Rodriguez than many of you. I think he has real concerns with making contact and I think it's going to lower his ceiling considerably. If I could center a package around him to get a controllable starter I would. But I don't get both arguing he's a possible perennial MVP candidate and that he has very limited value right now as a top-50 global prospect. Those seem to be contradictory ideas to me.

Everyone I mentioned was still a minor leaguer when they were traded and many of them brought back top 50 SPs. Acuna brought back more than 1 year of Scherzer. Gilbert brought back more than 1 year of Verlander. Yes, the risk is that Rodriguez becomes a perennial MVP candidate, but what are the chances of that actually happening with a 68% contact rate in A+ ball? The Soto comp is useful in terms of his eye at the plate, but the closer comp is probably Gallo. He had a really nice stretch with multiple all star appearances, but he was no MVP candidate. But he was a high BB, high K, low contact% hitter like Rodriguez. I'd argue there's a much better chance Rodriguez is Gallo than Soto. Does that change the equation on trading him if he has real value now? The chances that any individual player is traded is always small. But top prospects get traded every single year. Multiple of them. And even more fail. "Sky high" is a relative term. What if Rodriguez goes to AA and his contact struggles are exposed in 2024 and he drops off every top 100 list? Like Adell or Trammell. I'm not advocating for trading Rodriguez, I'm just saying that there's a very real chance this is his peak value and trading him shouldn't just be brushed aside as if he's guaranteed to only get more valuable.

You've watched much more than me, but in the handful of ABs I've watched of his there were certainly a couple where I had similar thoughts of him "giving away" the AB. It's much harder to teach a great eye than to teach swing decisions so my hope is they're able to get him to be a little more aggressive on pitches in the middle of the zone early in counts. Much like the approach Julien has. Go to the plate ready to swing from pitch 1, but only swing on the pitches you can put a good swing on.

I'm interested to see what comes of his last arb year next year. Really hard to non-tender a batting champ, but his number is going to be pushed to places I think some teams aren't comfortable paying someone with his skill set. I'd bet that's the main reason they're open to a possible trade. They aren't sure they're even going to pay him next year let alone in 2026.

Top prospects are traded all the time. Like in the first Soto deal (James Wood and CJ Abrams). Or the Castillo to Seattle deal (Noelvi Marte is a higher ranked prospect than Rodriguez). Scherzer to Texas got the Mets Luisangel Acuna who's ranked higher than Rodriguez. The Mets got a similarly ranked Drew Gilbert for Verlander. Michael Busch is older, but better ranked in some circles and was just traded to the Cubs like a week ago. Jarred Kelenic was the Mets #3 prospect and top 50ish global prospect when he was traded to Seattle. Rodriguez type prospects are traded all the time. And many of them who aren't traded don't even come close to touching their potential. Jo Adell was a better prospect than Rodriguez and his career is hanging by a thread. Taylor Trammell, Victor Robles, Keston Hiura, Joey Bart, Carter Kieboom, Brendan McKay. The list goes on and on. That's the risk reward challenge the FO faces.

The article says the Twins, not the Marlins, thought he was a 1B/DH. It says the Marlins thought he could play 2B.

His surgeries 2 and 3 years ago were for his wrist, this article mentions his shoulder (the one he had surgery on at the end of the season). I don't think the writer was referring to his wrist surgeries as something that COULD still be an issue at some point. That's why a few of us are questioning why they'd suggest his shoulder is still giving him problems.

"When the Twins dealt Arráez last offseason, they were betting on him being a first baseman or DH, as his health had started to limit his range in the field. The Marlins thought of Arráez as at least a part-time second baseman, which is why they thought he was valuable enough to give up Pablo Lopez (plus two prospects) to acquire him. The Marlins followed through on their plan." The article does not say they brought him in to play first or DH, it says the Twins were betting on him being a 1B or DH and the Marlins thought he could play "at least a part-time second base." So I'd say the writer wasn't lazy and did do at least a little research.

I don't see any way they bring him back (even if many of us would love it), but what stood out to me here is the "As the season nears, Kiriloff's shoulder injury continues to give him trouble" comment. What are the details here? That would change what I think they should prioritize the rest of the way (Hoskins would move easily to the #1 slot on players I hope they acquire).

Max Kepler was a terrible hitter for 2021 and 2022 and half of 2023 but now he's worth more than a possible Cy Young winner? It's almost like giving up on 26 year olds after 1 down season is silly.

He's 26 and was 3rd in the Cy Young 2 years ago with a significantly better season than Lopez had last year at the age of 27. Pretty easy to see why there'd be some appeal there. I think we've all conceded that there's very real downside as well. But there's certainly reason to want a 26 year old Cy Young candidate with 4 years of control left if the Twins think they know what went wrong last year.

I love the idea of adding Manoah if/when they trade Polanco or Kepler. Assuming they have a good handle on his medicals and believe they know what went so off the rails last year and can get him back on track. His contract runs the same duration as Lopez, and if they get him back to his 2022 form he's the best pitcher on the staff. That's more upside than they could possibly get in any other trade of those 2 vets. His downside is that his career is basically over, and that's why they'd have to have a really good idea of what went wrong for him last year because he was completely unplayable. If they can spin Polanco or Kepler into what they believe is a fixable Manoah they absolutely should. Then add Hoskins with the salary savings plus a little extra (I don't know if they have room to go any higher than they're currently at, but if it's possible that'd be how I'd spend the money). I will note that JP Morosi (the insider who sparked this video) has, to my knowledge, not suggested that this trade has actually been spoken about between these 2 teams. I've seen him on MLB Network a couple times in the past week mention that it could be a fit, but openly state that he's not aware of any conversations actually having happened along these lines. And Manoah is 26, not 24.

Farmer can play 1B every bit as well as Miranda could. And his overall OPS+ isn't such a concern when he's simply the short side of a platoon since his career OPS against lefties is .825 (compared to .657 against righties). Farmer is the ideal "right handed solution" to any infield platoon they want to run. The question is who do they want to platoon, Julien or Kirilloff or some combination there of? I don't think anyone is suggesting Farmer is anything more than a platoon bat and defensive replacement for the IF. And he's one of the best options in baseball to fill that role.

I think teams see what we see in his career performance so it's probably a struggle for him to get everything he wants. But even if his market does come down the Twins still aren't going to be an option because one of the big market teams will throw a much bigger AAV short-term deal at him than the Twins would. He's not a realistic option at all.

You think Polanco needs to be moved because he couldn't slide down to the bottom of the defensive spectrum at 1B, but you want to start Vazquez and his 65 OPS+ at 1B? Man, that is a lot of weight put on 135 innings at 1B. Moving a top 4 or 5 hitter on the team so you can play maybe the worst hitter on the team instead of asking a former shortstop to be able to handle 1B? Bold strategy.

Wow, very interesting. Would be an absolutely brilliant move if it works out.

Just an FYI on the rule: Prospects have to be on at least 2 of the 3 Top 100 Prospects lists chosen in the CBA (Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB.com) and be called up early enough to receive a full year of service time (172 days) to be eligible. Basically has to be a top prospect and be called up within the first 2 weeks of the season to be eligible. The team can then earn up to 1 draft pick if the player wins ROY or is in the top 3 for Cy Young or MVP before they're arbitration eligible to get a pick after the first round.

I'm confused by your timeline here. The Twins can't get an extra pick this year from Lee no matter how early they call him up. If he's up early enough and wins ROY this year he would get one for them next year, or if he finishes top 3 in the MVP voting before he's arb eligible (2 or 3 years) he could earn them a pick as well. But there's no pick he can earn that could be traded before the all star break this year.