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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    The Twins have been pretty openly shopping Kepler for multiple years and nobody in the league has found him so valuable that they were willing to trade for him. So either the Twins overvalue him or the league doesn't value him. I appreciate the back and forth. I have no problem with you believing Kepler can get a QO. I hope he's worthy even if I doubt it happens. We disagree on how to look at WAR in terms of whether offense or defense drives it and how teams value defense driven WAR on the corners. No big deal. But there's nothing left to discuss on this. We'll see what happens.
  2. chpettit19
    We've exhausted our back and forth on this discussion, sorry. I hope Kepler puts up the magical season you predict for the Twins because he'd be great to have that kind of player in our lineup.
  3. chpettit19
    They better think there's a real easy unlock in there to get him back to his 2021 self if they even consider trading for him. And do a real deep dive into his medicals. I have no real desire to add DeSclafani. 34 year old rental with a pretty low ceiling and possible elbow problems. If you're going to take a shot on someone you think you can get more out of I'd much rather see a shot at a younger, controllable guy who's not on our fan radars right now. DeSclafani would be really disappointing.
  4. chpettit19
    It is the safe bet, yes. But that's not all my stance is. I've been taking the over on Lewis since he was drafted. I basically have Jenkins in the HOF already. I just don't see star in Lee. I see an MLB regular for sure. Polanco is probably a good comp to what I see Lee's ceiling as. And I think he has a very good chance to reach that ceiling. And I'm definitely of the opinion that he'll be someone you want in a lineup. Between 110-130 OPS+ rankings with a possible All Star season in there. That's Polanco's career for the most part. I'm not trying to say I don't believe in Lee, there's just a lot of people on here who are expecting a star, and I don't see it. There's a poster or 2 who believe he'll surpass Correa in both fielding and hitting talent in 2024. I just don't think he has as high a ceiling as others. But I'm still very glad we have him, and expect him to be an important part of this team for a long time (assuming he isn't dealt for pitching in the next month).
  5. chpettit19
    I think the Teoscar deal was an overpay, but the Dodger's are playing a different financial game than just about anyone else. They're definitely banking on him getting back to his 2020-2022 self when he put up OPS+ of 146, 131, and 128.
  6. chpettit19
    I was actually an Ober naysayer going into last year when it came to his innings. He'd only pitched 100+ innings twice in his life and I didn't see him having any shot at a true starter's workload. This is one of those rare times where I've actually changed my tune because I was proven very wrong. Ober is part of why I don't want to move Canterino to the pen if it's possible he can still be a starter. If the medical people and trainers are saying he can do 125 innings I want him to try to do 125 innings. Ober will definitely be interesting to watch this year. I don't know what to make of his injuries. Having multiple injuries is generally more concerning to me than having one/repeated major injuries like Lewis' ACL. If your leg, then your back, then your arm, then your foot, then whatever gets hurt I tend to worry more about your ability to stay healthy. A chronic issue like Buxton's knee appears to be is obviously very worrying, but, like we hope with Kirilloff's wrist, it's also a more straight forward solution to health. Fix that 1 thing and you're good. Will definitely be keeping an eye on Ober this year to see how he holds up. I don't know that I'd call his 2022 injuries a red flag, but I also wouldn't be looking to lock him up for 7 or 8 more years right now.
  7. chpettit19
    Totally fair. I don't think dropping him straight into MLB is the best option no matter what role he's in, but I understand that people feel differently. I don't see him building up 70-80 innings as a starter during the first half of the year before moving to the bigs and pitching out of the pen as some wasted season or outlandish idea. It'd make him far more likely to be a real option for the 2025 rotation, and I'd rather have him in the rotation than the pen if he's as good as we all hope. I don't see this FO being open to taking him out of the pen if he's dominant there for the year like people think he'd be. And I don't like the idea of taking the starter option off the table yet.
  8. chpettit19
    I am less high on him than many. I see an MLB regular with maybe an All Star game appearance during a big year. I expect him to be better than last year, but I don't expect him to be up early, and I'd bet he goes back down after his first call up. And all of that is very much a positive outcome for him. I don't see the star others see, but I hope the rest of you are right and he blows the doors off Fort Myers and we're all on here complaining that they won't call him up even though he's lighting St Paul on fire.
  9. chpettit19
    I also expect Polanco to be moved. Will make me sad because I think he's one of their best hitters and they need his offense. But I expect he'll be dealt. My only point really was that they aren't going to make any moves with a healthy roster to get Lee on it. He needs to show he's ready, but then he's waiting his turn like everyone else has. He just needs to be ready to take advantage of the chance that comes. He'll get his chance, but they aren't going to create a chance for him.
  10. chpettit19
    I'm just saying there's not some hard and fast rule that guys don't jump more than 30%. Guys miss a season+ all the time with TJ and come back to throw 150+ innings. There's myriad reasons why Ober could struggle this year. Lopez could. Ryan could. If his velo and extension numbers are down from the jump I'll blame it on his innings jump. Otherwise there's far too many factors to blame that. It's also not out of the question that Canterino could be dominant in 5+ inning starts by the middle of April. We have different risk aversion. It's all good. I'm willing to risk more for the higher reward of a starter vs a reliever while you prefer taking the lower risk even if it comes with a lower reward. Nothing crazy about either of our stances from my view.
  11. chpettit19
    I fully expect Brooks Lee to debut in 2024. I don't think he's going to put up Miranda like numbers in AAA, but I think he'll improve on last year's numbers and show he's the best MLB ready IF prospect they have. And injuries are a forgone conclusion. Every team has them. The Twins will have them. And since I think he'll be the best guy available I think he'll be the one who gets the shot. I just disagree that they're going to force it while the entire MLB starting IF is healthy. They've never done that. Now we also need to take into account what the roster actually looks like this year. Is Polanco still on it? Kepler? If those guys are both still here it makes it a lot harder for Lee to get his shot. Especially Polanco. I'd put Miranda as the first guy up if Kirilloff goes down, and maybe if Kepler or Wallner goes down depending on what Larnach is looking like (Kirilloff to OF, Miranda to 1B in that scenario). All I'm saying is that there's no precedent for this FO taking a healthy roster and moving guys around to give a prospect his first shot. No matter how well they're performing. Injuries are very much a key to Lee getting his first chance. Once he gets it the equation changes and becomes more about production as they'd then be more willing to move guys around based on the makeup of the roster as people get healthy again. I just disagree with the idea that Lee being ready is the only thing that matters.
  12. chpettit19
    If the Twins are going to move a healthy MLB starter off their starting spot, especially when those starters are either young, core pieces or a $33 million shortstop Lee better be putting up better numbers than he did. I'm just saying expectations need to be tempered. Can you name 1 instance under this current FO that the Twins moved a healthy starter off their spot to call up a prospect to give them their first shot? And you claimed Lee was going to do outdo 2021 Miranda who had a .960 OPS and 156 wRC+ at AAA. You're taking an incredibly aggressive stance with these claims. I'm providing pretty simple rebuttals.
  13. chpettit19
    I think we need to define some things here. The Twins didn't hand Arraez, Lewis, or Julien jobs over healthy players. That's my read on what people are saying. If Lee is ready the Twins will move healthy players around to get him to the big league team. I don't remember any recent situations where that's happened. Arraez got his shot when Schoop got hurt. Lewis got his when Correa got hurt. Julien got his when Gordon got hurt (I mean they didn't even give him a job over Nick Gordon!). Miranda had one of the best minor league seasons in Twins history in 2021 and they didn't even hand him an opening day 2022 job let alone give him a shot in 2021. Wallner didn't get his shot until Joey freaking Gallo got hurt. So we need to define what we're really talking about here. I don't see any argument for the Twins moving a healthy player to put Lee on the team. But when someone gets hurt, if Lee has shown he's ready, he'll get his shot and then changes may be made from there. But there's no real evidence at all of the Twins moving healthy starters for prospects who are deemed ready.
  14. chpettit19
    Well he's got 229 points of AAA OPS to go so there's some work to be done. And has to literally double his wRC+. (Lee was 78, 2021 Miranda was 156)
  15. chpettit19
    Do you expect Lee to put up better numbers than 2021 Miranda or 2023 Wallner? They weren't up when they were ready. The Twins won't sacrifice depth for anyone. Ober wasn't up when he was ready last year. Injuries or failed MLB production are a needed part of this equation as well. They've already tried Julien in the OF and clearly didn't think it worked well since he's never gone back. If Kepler and Polanco are still on this roster on opening day Brooks Lee has a very tough road to MLB playing time. He's not replacing Farmer as the bench option. It will take injuries or poor performance to get him his shot. Now those things are very likely to happen so the door is almost guaranteed to be opened at some point in 2024, but there is far more to the equation than simply Brooks Lee being ready.
  16. chpettit19
    Ober went from 72.2 to 167. That's a little more than 30%, no?
  17. chpettit19
    Thus the "admittedly very small sample size" comment. And getting through a lineup twice is a pretty solid starting point for someone. Better than they have Raya doing and people are awfully excited about him. And I couldn't care less about pitcher wins. But the point stands that comping him directly to Duran is leaving out that Duran struggled mightily in the upper minors and that was part of why they put him in the pen, not just durability concerns.
  18. chpettit19
    And I'm suggesting what I'd do. SWR, Balazovic, Sanchez, and Varland were all on the Saints roster opening day last year. They definitely could've put Ober in the pen if they wanted to. I have no idea how Canterino will do as a starter, but if his Dr says he's medically able to throw 125 innings I'd definitely start him out on that path and see how it goes. I don't see why you'd end his starting career if the Drs are telling you there's no medical reason why he can't do it. But I don't remember all the details of his arm injuries so I'm just going off what they say. If you're going to do it with Canterino you may as well do it with Prielipp, too. I don't like the idea of taking all their highest upside arms and turning them into pen arms before they even debut. And as for the Duran comp, his minor league ERA was 3.99. Including 4.86 at AA and 5.06 at AAA. His health was not the only reason they turned him into a fire breathing pen dragon. Duran was 3.23 at A+. Canterino was 0.86 at A+ and 1.83 at AA in his admittedly very small sample sizes. I don't think they're such a straight comp for "arm troubles so move them to the pen."
  19. chpettit19
    I have no idea what the Twins will do with him in terms of starting or relieving so there's nowhere near enough info to make that bet. Would you bet 100 he doesn't top 55 since your baseline was 50?
  20. chpettit19
    That must've been a very cool experience. The tech in the sports world now is crazy!
  21. chpettit19
    Because he was bad. He got sent down because of performance. Add Keuchel's 37.2 innings that Varland would've gotten had he been good and now he's up at 105.2.
  22. chpettit19
    And Ober was at 69 per season the previous 8 seasons until he threw 167 last year. That's a real thing.
  23. chpettit19
    I think most of us assume they're looking to bring in 1 more arm and push Varland to that same 6th starter position that Ober had. He wouldn't spend the season in AAA. Much like Ober didn't last year. Unless you think there's going to be no injuries to the starting rotation. Varland could be the 8th starter and it'd be pretty certain he'd eventually get into the rotation. Most years he could be the 10th guy and he'd easily get in the rotation.
  24. chpettit19
    Yeah, I'm just going to have to go with what the medical professional is saying and not your guess. I don't mean that to be rude, but we have actual innings numbers from his surgeon so it's based on real things and more than our wild speculation (which generally I'm more than happy to throw around). We're coming from very different places on this when your number is 50 and mine is 125.
  25. chpettit19
    Do you also want Varland in the pen from the start then? Should Ober have been moved to the pen to start last year? Shoot, Festa will be 24 next season so should he start in the pen instead of "wasting his healthy innings in the minor leagues?" Where's the cutoff?
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