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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Excited to have him and follow his progression. Sounds like a bigger version of Eddie Rosario or OF version of Jose Miranda (with a little more pop maybe). Rosario never really stopped swinging at everything, but was able to make a nice MLB career for himself. Miranda did fine tune his approach some and it was the key for his career taking off. It sounds like there's not a ton of projection left in him as he's already physically matured quite a bit, but you can't teach the natural bat to ball skills it sounds like he has. Sounds like there's some very real talent there and I hope the Twins can dial him in like they did with Miranda.
  2. chpettit19
    I was banking on an extra adrenaline surge late in the year to get him that extra game, but I'm also known for being fanatical so I can get a little carried away sometimes.
  3. chpettit19
    And if/when they make those moves I'll recalculate. And I do hope, and believe, there's more going on. I don't think it's "a lot more," but I think there's more moves coming. I don't expect some massive move, but I do expect moves. But I'm not going to give them credit for moves that haven't been made yet. If their moves are to sign Odo to a minor league deal and bring back Donovan Solano I'm not going to praise them. If they spin Gonzalez+ into a frontline starter I'll give them their praise. More money and ammo aren't useful if you don't actually use them to improve the team. So until they do that I'm not going to praise them for doing it. The Rogers trade didn't come after an ALDS appearance so it doesn't fit my stance. And he's a reliever, not a top of the order bat. That was a different team with different needs and thus a different strategy was needed. I'm glad we have Paddack, too. But my stance isn't just some blanket approach to every team in every season. It's for this team for this season.
  4. chpettit19
    150 if he's healthy.
  5. chpettit19
    I've said many, many times on these threads that I don't think the Twins got too little value for Polanco. My argument has never been that they should've gotten more value for just Polanco. My argument is that they made the 2024 team worse last night, and I'm not interested in taking an ALDS team and continually watching pieces subtracted from it while the best addition is a 32 year old rookie reliever. I've also said my expectation is that they make more moves and start actually improving the team. When that happens I will recalculate my opinions on this deal and the offseason as a whole. But I'm not going to praise them for making the team worse yesterday because they might make it better in the future. My preference would've been that they were the ones attaching prospects and money to Polanco to get a better, controllable arm. Maybe it wasn't possible, but maybe they just weren't willing. None of us know. My complaint today is that the team is worse than it was yesterday. Until that changes it will continue to be my complaint because the team is significantly worse than it was the day their season ended. They've taken an ALDS team and done nothing but subtract from it outside of 1 reliever (and I do expect Topa to be good, so I'm glad we have him in general). Until they start actually adding talent to this team I'm not going to praise them. But I have no problem with others doing so. We just don't agree. And there's nothing wrong with that.
  6. chpettit19
    Polanco could play 1B for Kirilloff against lefties. He can DH. Why are we assuming a fully healthy roster? Donovan Solano had 450 plate appearances for the Twins last year. Julien and Lewis were both healthy in the playoffs last year and Polanco was hitting 2 hole then. Not sure why you think that'd change now. If you believe Castro is a better player than Jorge Polanco, cool. We don't agree. You're describing a perfect scenario where all the pieces fit just as they plan and there's never a need for a full time replacement starter. How likely is that to happen? What are the odds that there's never a time that the 2024 Twins need a full time starter at an IF spot that isn't named Lewis, Correa, Julien, or Kirilloff? What if Wallner struggles in his sophomore year or Kepler gets hurt and Larnach is terrible so they want to put Kirilloff in a cOF spot? What about if Castro or Farmer go down? You're planning for opening day, I'm planning for 162 games. Solano was 3rd on the team in PAs last year. Was that the plan going into opening day? This idea that Polanco would go from hitting 2 hole in the playoffs to being some bench bat they could never find a time to use because of Farmer and Castro feels like a stretch. Yes, I've said many, many, many times in all these threads that I expect more moves to be made and it could/would actually improve this team. But it's also quite reasonable to say the guy you had hitting 2 hole in the playoffs last year being replaced by a reliever and a washed up SP makes the team worse today than it was at start of day yesterday.
  7. chpettit19
    My point is I don't see any team being likely to claim him so I don't think it's a realistic way. If he flops again here it's far more likely nobody claims him and he signs as a free agent. Is it technically possible to save another slightly more in season (we'd already have paid down part of his deal by then so it's not all straight forward anyways)? Sure. Is it likely or some actual positive we should take from this? I'd say no. Just feels like a stretch here.
  8. chpettit19
    How does it go up? MLB deals are guaranteed. Only way the Twins save anymore money on him is if some other team claims him, or trades for him, so they pay it. I don't see him failing here and having another team agree to pay him. I don't see how you're getting to anymore than the 5.25 outside of believing some other team would want to pay DeSclafani.
  9. chpettit19
    I'm not a big prospect rankings guy, but people love them. Way too many ways to rank guys that I don't think those lists are all that useful. But I'm with you on the tempering expectations thing on Lee. I don't see a star even though I hope he becomes that. I see really good regular for a decade with a spike year All Star appearance. Which is absolutely a wonderful outcome, and I'm excited to have him. I just don't see this franchise cornerstone star others seem to see. But it's something I'm more than happy to be wrong about. If they can get Lee to sign that Keith deal I think they should do it. I don't think they can, and I'm sure he'd want more. I just don't think he's worth more right now. I'm all for the early extensions, in general. I'd lock up Lewis for a decade right now if I could. I think it's the best way for teams that won't (or can't depending on your view) spend big dollars to build an actual WS threat. But I get that it's a pretty sizeable risk and understand why teams don't lean into it often. But if you nail those kind of extensions for a handful of guys you really open yourself up to way more possibilities in team building.
  10. chpettit19
    Having Polanco mitigated a lot of the risk in those 3 guys not being able to play. I think all of their major league careers to this point suggest we should have some pretty sizeable caution when it comes to them playing. I think Lewis is a little different as the double ACL thing is more crazy than long-term concern to me, but if you're counting on those other 2 for 140+ games you're making a massive bet. It's why I don't think this team is as set offensively as others believe they are. I'd build my team assuming I'm getting 80 games each out of Buxton and Kirilloff and any more than that is a good problem to have.
  11. chpettit19
    And my point is that individual batter totals is not a good way to look at this problem. It's like RBIs vs BA w/ runners in scoring position. The stat we should really care about is the BA w/runners in scoring position, but people make a big deal about RBIs instead. The problem is the Twins 26.6% K rate. They need to get that under 25%. Rhys would've helped that. But it's all moot now as he's no longer available.
  12. chpettit19
    You think Pagan is a good get for Polanco? That's not selling me on Topa. I don't assume Buxton gets most of his ABs at DH. If he can't play CF most of the time they need to put him on the IL. Is Kirilloff healthy and going to play a full season? Lewis going to play the whole season? Even if Buxton is a DH primarily is he going to play the full year? I don't get this idea that there's just no ABs for Polanco. He's one of their 4 or 5 best hitters, there's ABs for him. Donovan Solano stepped to the plate 450 times for the Twins last year. There's ABs for one of your best hitters. It's crazy to me that people think there's just no room for him.
  13. chpettit19
    Your definition of "successful" and mine are different. When you can show me those teams winning World Series with this brilliant plan I'll listen. You have different goals for the Twins than I do. The facts are that your 3 precious teams you want the Twins to emulate have won a combined 0 World Series titles in the past 20 years. In fact they've won a combined 0 World Series since 1989. The Guardians have been investing in future assets while developing pitching at a crazy clip and are now an afterthought in the AL Central's historically bad division. The A's are the most embarrassing franchise in professional sports. And the Rays have made noise in the playoffs twice in their entire 25 year existence. My position is plenty informed, it just has different goals than yours. I'm sorry if you don't like that.
  14. chpettit19
    Colt Keith is slightly younger and has done more in professional baseball than Brooks Lee. They're both ranked quite similarly in prospect rankings (Brooks 18, Colt 22 on MLB Pipeline). I think Brooks would have an incredibly hard time convincing the Twins he's worth twice what Colt is.
  15. chpettit19
    Fair. I just don't think there's any reasonable chance the Twins turn this extra 5ish mil into a high priced free agent of any kind. I think if that's what we're pinning our hopes to we're going to be awfully disappointed. And I don't see them signing JD since he's a DH only and they aren't likely to pay for one of those with health concerns all over the roster. But we'll see.
  16. chpettit19
    You quoted me. If you didn't want a response you shouldn't have used my comment "as the source."
  17. chpettit19
    If he gets DFA'd nobody is taking on his money. He still gets paid if he gets DFA'd it's just a matter of if he gets claimed and someone else pays what's left. The Twins netted $5.25 million in payroll space on this deal, not 8.
  18. chpettit19
    MLR, we've been through this. I'm not going to do it with you again. We disagree on this trade. It's ok. You're not going to convince me with your wash and repeat "but Cleveland, Tampa, and Oakland do it" speech. I know where you stand and you know where I stand. I don't care if you feel I'm being fanatical or not.
  19. chpettit19
    What? A rated low minor prospect has a better chance for success than an equally rated high minor prospect? I'm going to need to see some data to back that up. They didn't just need a starter, they needed a good starter. Anthony DeSclafani is a nothing piece of this trade and it's proven by Seattle having to pay for most of his deal (with part of that money coming from San Fran actually). It does matter no matter what confidence they have in those 3 starters. They didn't fill their current MLB need with this trade. The fact that anyone is trying to spin DeSclafani into a piece that fills a need tells us all we need to know about the current value of this trade.
  20. chpettit19
    You made no real comment on anything so I just laid out my point and questioned why anyone, not just you, would find it controversial to suggest losing Jorge Polanco makes the offense worse.
  21. chpettit19
    Yeah, you're not getting those big name guys for 6/18, sorry.
  22. chpettit19
    I think we can pretty easily take Bellinger and Montgomery off that list for 1 year deals. It'd be pretty shocking to see Bellinger take another pillow deal. And if he does it'll be for more than 20 mil considering he got 17.5 coming off absolutely horrid years back to back. And every contending team in baseball would find a way to get Montgomery 20 mil for 1 year if that's all it'd take. I don't see them going DH only, but JD would be a nice bat to have in the lineup if he has another year in him. Clevinger, Ryu, and Hendriks are interesting. I don't think you can do multiple of them, but probably could get 1 of them for what the Twins are likely willing to spend right now. Question is what they do with DeSclafani if they bring in Clevinger or Ryu. Since he's extremely cheap now you can probably flip him for a flier prospect so that'd be an interesting situation. But I agree with your statement in the other post that the Twins are likely looking at position players now. And I don't see any that are likely in the Twins price range and bring legitimate value in return when it comes to replacing Polanco's bat.
  23. chpettit19
    They made their lineup worse last night. I don't know why that's a controversial thing to suggest.
  24. chpettit19
    Legitimate question, who do you see on the FA market that you're excited to spend 10 to 15 mil on?
  25. chpettit19
    The spot in the order isn't really the point. He's one of their 4 or 5 best hitters. They took a bat from the top of their lineup and replaced it with a reliever and a starter nobody thinks is actually any good. I hope you're right and it's not a big issue replacing a 115+ OPS+ bat at the top of the lineup. History says you're probably wrong, though.
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