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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    My point is I don't see any team being likely to claim him so I don't think it's a realistic way. If he flops again here it's far more likely nobody claims him and he signs as a free agent. Is it technically possible to save another slightly more in season (we'd already have paid down part of his deal by then so it's not all straight forward anyways)? Sure. Is it likely or some actual positive we should take from this? I'd say no. Just feels like a stretch here.
  2. chpettit19
    How does it go up? MLB deals are guaranteed. Only way the Twins save anymore money on him is if some other team claims him, or trades for him, so they pay it. I don't see him failing here and having another team agree to pay him. I don't see how you're getting to anymore than the 5.25 outside of believing some other team would want to pay DeSclafani.
  3. chpettit19
    I'm not a big prospect rankings guy, but people love them. Way too many ways to rank guys that I don't think those lists are all that useful. But I'm with you on the tempering expectations thing on Lee. I don't see a star even though I hope he becomes that. I see really good regular for a decade with a spike year All Star appearance. Which is absolutely a wonderful outcome, and I'm excited to have him. I just don't see this franchise cornerstone star others seem to see. But it's something I'm more than happy to be wrong about. If they can get Lee to sign that Keith deal I think they should do it. I don't think they can, and I'm sure he'd want more. I just don't think he's worth more right now. I'm all for the early extensions, in general. I'd lock up Lewis for a decade right now if I could. I think it's the best way for teams that won't (or can't depending on your view) spend big dollars to build an actual WS threat. But I get that it's a pretty sizeable risk and understand why teams don't lean into it often. But if you nail those kind of extensions for a handful of guys you really open yourself up to way more possibilities in team building.
  4. chpettit19
    Having Polanco mitigated a lot of the risk in those 3 guys not being able to play. I think all of their major league careers to this point suggest we should have some pretty sizeable caution when it comes to them playing. I think Lewis is a little different as the double ACL thing is more crazy than long-term concern to me, but if you're counting on those other 2 for 140+ games you're making a massive bet. It's why I don't think this team is as set offensively as others believe they are. I'd build my team assuming I'm getting 80 games each out of Buxton and Kirilloff and any more than that is a good problem to have.
  5. chpettit19
    And my point is that individual batter totals is not a good way to look at this problem. It's like RBIs vs BA w/ runners in scoring position. The stat we should really care about is the BA w/runners in scoring position, but people make a big deal about RBIs instead. The problem is the Twins 26.6% K rate. They need to get that under 25%. Rhys would've helped that. But it's all moot now as he's no longer available.
  6. chpettit19
    You think Pagan is a good get for Polanco? That's not selling me on Topa. I don't assume Buxton gets most of his ABs at DH. If he can't play CF most of the time they need to put him on the IL. Is Kirilloff healthy and going to play a full season? Lewis going to play the whole season? Even if Buxton is a DH primarily is he going to play the full year? I don't get this idea that there's just no ABs for Polanco. He's one of their 4 or 5 best hitters, there's ABs for him. Donovan Solano stepped to the plate 450 times for the Twins last year. There's ABs for one of your best hitters. It's crazy to me that people think there's just no room for him.
  7. chpettit19
    Your definition of "successful" and mine are different. When you can show me those teams winning World Series with this brilliant plan I'll listen. You have different goals for the Twins than I do. The facts are that your 3 precious teams you want the Twins to emulate have won a combined 0 World Series titles in the past 20 years. In fact they've won a combined 0 World Series since 1989. The Guardians have been investing in future assets while developing pitching at a crazy clip and are now an afterthought in the AL Central's historically bad division. The A's are the most embarrassing franchise in professional sports. And the Rays have made noise in the playoffs twice in their entire 25 year existence. My position is plenty informed, it just has different goals than yours. I'm sorry if you don't like that.
  8. chpettit19
    Colt Keith is slightly younger and has done more in professional baseball than Brooks Lee. They're both ranked quite similarly in prospect rankings (Brooks 18, Colt 22 on MLB Pipeline). I think Brooks would have an incredibly hard time convincing the Twins he's worth twice what Colt is.
  9. chpettit19
    Fair. I just don't think there's any reasonable chance the Twins turn this extra 5ish mil into a high priced free agent of any kind. I think if that's what we're pinning our hopes to we're going to be awfully disappointed. And I don't see them signing JD since he's a DH only and they aren't likely to pay for one of those with health concerns all over the roster. But we'll see.
  10. chpettit19
    You quoted me. If you didn't want a response you shouldn't have used my comment "as the source."
  11. chpettit19
    If he gets DFA'd nobody is taking on his money. He still gets paid if he gets DFA'd it's just a matter of if he gets claimed and someone else pays what's left. The Twins netted $5.25 million in payroll space on this deal, not 8.
  12. chpettit19
    MLR, we've been through this. I'm not going to do it with you again. We disagree on this trade. It's ok. You're not going to convince me with your wash and repeat "but Cleveland, Tampa, and Oakland do it" speech. I know where you stand and you know where I stand. I don't care if you feel I'm being fanatical or not.
  13. chpettit19
    What? A rated low minor prospect has a better chance for success than an equally rated high minor prospect? I'm going to need to see some data to back that up. They didn't just need a starter, they needed a good starter. Anthony DeSclafani is a nothing piece of this trade and it's proven by Seattle having to pay for most of his deal (with part of that money coming from San Fran actually). It does matter no matter what confidence they have in those 3 starters. They didn't fill their current MLB need with this trade. The fact that anyone is trying to spin DeSclafani into a piece that fills a need tells us all we need to know about the current value of this trade.
  14. chpettit19
    You made no real comment on anything so I just laid out my point and questioned why anyone, not just you, would find it controversial to suggest losing Jorge Polanco makes the offense worse.
  15. chpettit19
    Yeah, you're not getting those big name guys for 6/18, sorry.
  16. chpettit19
    I think we can pretty easily take Bellinger and Montgomery off that list for 1 year deals. It'd be pretty shocking to see Bellinger take another pillow deal. And if he does it'll be for more than 20 mil considering he got 17.5 coming off absolutely horrid years back to back. And every contending team in baseball would find a way to get Montgomery 20 mil for 1 year if that's all it'd take. I don't see them going DH only, but JD would be a nice bat to have in the lineup if he has another year in him. Clevinger, Ryu, and Hendriks are interesting. I don't think you can do multiple of them, but probably could get 1 of them for what the Twins are likely willing to spend right now. Question is what they do with DeSclafani if they bring in Clevinger or Ryu. Since he's extremely cheap now you can probably flip him for a flier prospect so that'd be an interesting situation. But I agree with your statement in the other post that the Twins are likely looking at position players now. And I don't see any that are likely in the Twins price range and bring legitimate value in return when it comes to replacing Polanco's bat.
  17. chpettit19
    They made their lineup worse last night. I don't know why that's a controversial thing to suggest.
  18. chpettit19
    Legitimate question, who do you see on the FA market that you're excited to spend 10 to 15 mil on?
  19. chpettit19
    The spot in the order isn't really the point. He's one of their 4 or 5 best hitters. They took a bat from the top of their lineup and replaced it with a reliever and a starter nobody thinks is actually any good. I hope you're right and it's not a big issue replacing a 115+ OPS+ bat at the top of the lineup. History says you're probably wrong, though.
  20. chpettit19
    I didn't believe that in 2022 because the situations were different. I didn't think the team was that good so wouldn't have felt a need to "go for it." I know your stance on this. There's no reason for us to go through this song and dance again. You like future assets at all times, I don't. I believe there are times when you can sacrifice some (yes, some, not all) future assets for present ones. Especially when the present ones I'm suggesting they go after come with 5 years of control. So, yes, I disagree with the guys getting paid to make this decision if their goal with this trade was to gain future assets. But they themselves said that wasn't their goal so maybe you're the one who disagrees with them?
  21. chpettit19
    Jorge Polanco was set to be their opening day 2 hole hitter and would've played as everyday a role as this team does when healthy. The argument against Jorge Polanco is how likely he was to be healthy. Jorge Polanco was the everyday 2 hole hitter for the 2024 MN Twins until they traded him. That's a big piece to replace with a reliever.
  22. chpettit19
    That's where I'm at, too. I think they got fair value for Polanco, but most of that value is in the future, and I'm just not interested in future value when the team is coming off an ALDS appearance and has already seen their talent level decrease. I hope Gonzalez figures it out. Doesn't appear to be any sort of defensive asset so has to really figure it out with the bat. But maybe he does. Or maybe they flip him. It's just disappointing to see the first successful playoffs Twins team in 2 decades take continual steps backwards while slashing payroll. Should've been an exciting, momentum building offseason, but it's been the complete opposite. I believe they'll start making moves a little quicker now and we'll start seeing some positive steps forward, but as it stands today this offseason gets an F from me.
  23. chpettit19
    Totally possible, doesn't make me any more excited about it. Dallas Keuchel wasn't on the opening day roster. Nobody says you have to rely on DeSclafani types on opening day rosters. And maybe the Twins won't. Why didn't San Fran or Seattle want him? They're teams trying to contend. San Fran paid to get rid of him for a guy who's only pitching half a season this year. I know we're not supposed to be downers during the offseason, but my point here is that the Twins got worse last night. They had already gotten worse during the rest of the offseason and they added to it last night. Doesn't mean the offseason is over and there aren't more moves, but, objectively speaking, replacing your 2 hole hitter with "the #6 starter" and a reliever makes your team worse. This team was in the ALDS last year and has taken all steps backwards since. I'm expecting some steps forward in the coming days and weeks and months, but right now they went backwards. The fact that we're trying to spin DeSclafani into a Dallas Keuchel comp to suggest it's not that bad that he's currently slated to be in the opening day rotation says all we need it to say. This team is worse than last year's and worse than the team they opened the day with yesterday.
  24. chpettit19
    Totally fair. The point is there's other arms out there that cost other things besides just Polanco. And they very well may bring some in. I've said from the beginning I believe they'll make more moves and we'll see what the team looks like on opening day. But right now, on 1/30/2024 the MN Twins are a worse baseball team than they were at the start of the day on 1/29/2024. The Twins were a playoff team last year. They won their first playoff game and series in basically 2 decades. And all they've done to this point is watch the team get worse. They made the team worse with this trade. I assume they have other plays in their back pockets ready to be made, and we'll start seeing them improve the team from here on out. But I don't think it's ridiculous for some of us to be disappointed that they made the team worse last night. Even if we think they'll make the team better from here on out.
  25. chpettit19
    Then call Miami. Call Milwaukee and get Burnes even though he isn't controllable. Nobody made them trade Polanco. Call Chicago about Cease. Cleveland about Bieber. Seattle isn't the only team in the league with pitching. Were the Twins "dead-set" on getting that young pitching for Polanco or getting that young pitching overall? Did they offer Julien instead of Polanco? Did they offer Lee? Kepler? Festa? Rodriguez? You can guess on any of that you want, but we will never know the answer. If the Twins were willing to offer a combination of those guys to all the teams in baseball with pitching available and everyone said "no, thanks" then so be it. I find that hard to believe. And if it's actually true then the level of excitement for those guys on this site needs to come down significantly. If we're really so overloaded with young hitting talent that we have no reason to be concerned about losing our 2 hole hitter then that young talent should be valuable on the trade market. I'd have traded some of it. I'm guessing the Twins wouldn't.
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