chpettit19

I'd think if they want him to have a shot at the MLB rotation in the next couple years they need to start extending him more in starts this year. 90+ innings? 100+ innings? I don't know what their limit will be with him, but I'd think eventually you have to test him at AA with trying to get into a lineup a third time. His numbers have been tremendous so I'm excited to see what he can do in extended innings in the upper minors.

I was watching the Top 100 Right Now show on MLB Network last night (they did numbers 80 to 61). They had a segment of the show where they brought in Dan O'Dowd and Steve Phillips to talk about how teams rank players/make decisions on players (they're both former GMs if you don't know who they are). O'Dowd started it off by talking about looking at production/performance/etc. projection and deciding who's going to be the best player moving forward then talked about the intangibles and how they'd take those into account. Phillips came next and started off by basically saying "intangibles are nice, but give me the performance all day." They went back and forth basically agreeing that performance/talent is the first, second, and third thing in the pecking order, and then you go to the intangibles after that as the separator. Intangibles are nice. They're important, and shouldn't be ignored. But talent is what wins baseball games. I'm glad the Twins are taking it all into consideration, but if they chose Santana over Soler (not saying they did, just an example) because they think Santana has better intangibles despite Soler being the much better hitter I'd be pretty annoyed. Intangibles need to be secondary to actual baseball talent.

I think this is a pretty decent projection for the central. I think the Twins are in the same win total area as last year and one of Cleveland or Detroit will "surprise" by being above .500 as well and give the Twins a run for their money. The other will be around .500 and be a pain for most of the season. KC will get to 70+ wins and will play a big role in the division based on how competitive they are with each contender. And Chicago will continue to be a dumpster fire despite carrying maybe the best player in the division. A lot of young talent in this division. Will be fun to see who's steps up and can take charge of the division the next few years.

Waiving Jordy Blaze is a good reminder of why contending teams don't like to clear spots for even top prospects on opening day rosters. It's the hope and excitement time of year where all the prospect rankings are coming out and we all picture our perfect future where they all hit their ceilings. Reality is that most won't, and that's why teams tend to build MLB depth with veterans and let the prospects take jobs as injury replacements instead of being plan A. Jordy was ranked higher than anyone currently in the system so let's hope the guys coming up now can find that key to give themselves the extra push over the top to successful major league careers.

I think it's an attempt to get as many as they can. Just keep claiming and waiving, signing and waiving, waiving guys you already have and see how many you can get through. They're all roughly the same guy so just see if you can't collect a few more to stash in AAA. They don't really care if they lose 9 out of 10 of the waived guys because they've replaced them with a guy with a similar chance to be successful, but each time they get one through they've increased their odds. I don't think it's so much grading player vs player, but instead a general pool of players that they're trying to collect as many of as they can.

If the Twins could get 2 years of Dylan Cease for Kepler and Varland they should do that immediately.

Confused on who the 13th guy is on the position player roster if it's not Miranda, Gordon, or Larnach. We have the 8 assumed starters, Santana, and 3 of 4 bench spots as the situation presented in the article. Who's the 4th bench spot going to if it isn't one of these 3 guys? Don't think they're carrying 3 catchers so Camargo is out. Are they going to cut Gordon to get Martin, Severino, or Rodriguez on their opening day bench? I don't think the Santana signing effects Gordon in any way. I think Gordon remains the 13th position player on the team at this point. Another signing would push him off the roster, but this one doesn't.

The Royals are in some RSN limbo themselves. Bally owns their rights as well. They spent much of the offseason planning for this to be their last year on Bally as Diamond was going to close up shop after 2024 before Amazon jumped in. Their current deal is less than the Twins previous deal. They have an uncertain future in their RSN lives, too. Diamond also owns the Royals digital (streaming) rights so they don't even have hope for a boost there because they've already signed over both their cable and streaming rights to Bally in a deal that was less than the Twins previous deal. A team investing because they want public money to pay for a new stadium shouldn't make fans feel any better, in my opinion. Comparing the Twins to Cleveland doesn't make me feel any better either. Just because there's worse teams doesn't mean we should be happy with what we have. It is what it is, but the talks are the Twins are going to get roughly 44 mil from their 2024 deal with Bally. KC gets right around 50 mil from what I've seen. I think the RSN situation is overblown. The Twins were always going to get paid to have their games broadcast.

Yeah, the challenge of the situation really is just how wide the spectrum of outcomes for him is. 2023 Manoah is worth nothing. Nobody would trade for him. 2022 Manoah is worth an absolute haul. Toronto can't trade him for scraps, but other teams can't give up big time pieces for him. Very unlikely any deal gets done because he's just too big of a question mark for everyone involved. But 2022 Manoah sure would look nice in the Twins rotation.

Which is certainly unfortunate, but I think some of us are frustrated that they're going to now self-inflict more bad attendance. There's nothing they could've done about 2020 and 2021. But they have some control over 2024 and beyond. Instead of choosing to take advantage of their first playoff win, and series win, in 2 decades they're choosing to actively hurt their relationship with at least part of the fan base by openly admitting they're going to slash payroll at the very beginning of the offseason. That's on them. That's not just "aw, shucks, bad luck for us" that's them actively telling their fans they're not investing in the team right after the team finally excited the fanbase and before they ask the fans to invest in the team themselves. Professional sports is a weird business. They have built in business no matter how terrible their product is. They get paid directly by their competitors even if they're actively not trying to produce a quality product (see Athletics, Oakland). The sport itself draws fans even to teams that are actively not trying to produce a quality product. It rings hallow to me when they provide 2 decades of playoff misery, and a bunch of regular season embarrassments, while racking in profits and then complain that there's just no way they can invest in a quality product because of their profits. I don't buy it. It's not all in their control, but it's not all out of their control. Should they blindly throw around money? No, of course not. But could they survive a season of purposeful profit losses to build their future revenue? I'd sure like to think they have some control over the amount of revenue they produce. To me, it feels like they're saying "we'll invest when you do" to their fans. Which is possible because their business is profitable no matter how hard they try. But Dave St Peter publicly questioning fans because they don't show up after 2021 and 2022 disasters is a bad look. Build a product fans find worthy of investing in and the Twin Cities will invest. We've shown it before. 2 decades with no playoff wins leads to fans being a little slow to react. Feels pretty reasonable to me that fans are asking them to "prove it." The Twins response is "no, just show up." I'm not impressed with that. The Royals seem to have realized they need to invest to get the fans to. I hope the Twins figure that out, too.

Ah. so the opposite miss on evaluation as the other guys. I got ya.

They were coming out of a pandemic in 2021 and businesses all over were struggling to get people to return. Not to mention the social situation in Minneapolis at that time and the concern a large number of people had for their safety when going to downtown Minneapolis at that time. I don't think 2021 is a great example of "winning doesn't really help." Way more factors that went into that time period in Minneapolis.

Hey now, why is Matt Wisler catching strays here? He was lights out in his 25 innings in MN!

I'd prefer Soler, but I can understand why people want a righty OF bat in general. I just don't think it's that important. I'd focus far more on making sure my "vs righties" lineup was as good as I could make it, and would be trying to find the best bat I could to fill the 9th spot in my "vs righties lineup (not the 9 hole, just the 9th starter since I think they already have 8). None of these options are all that enticing to me outside of Soler. But to tie this back to Martin before we get too far off the trail here, I just don't think he needs to be forced onto the opening day roster. I like him even though I see him as pretty much the righty version of Gordon despite getting to their OPS in different ways. I'm not sacrificing depth to force that guy on my roster when he has options and has never seen an MLB pitch. I hope he found himself at the end of the year and is making us all salivate by May this year, but I want my best combination of depth and talent to start the year. And I just think that means Gordon in Minneapolis and Martin in St Paul to start the year (with the current makeup of the team).

Yeah, I'm not sacrificing offense at 1B for a better glove, but to each their own. I'm not putting sub-.730 OPS at 1B for their glove. Just not how I'd do things. Santana is a short side of a platoon bat to me. And I'm definitely not forcing Miranda onto the opening day roster to take ABs against righties at the cost of cutting Gordon. It's not ideal, but options matter, and I'm not willing to force a guy with options onto the roster at the cost of cutting a legit major leaguer (different equation if you don't think Gordon is a legit major leaguer). I do agree with your vs lefties lineup, minus Miranda. They're going to have to let a young lefty hit against lefties. I'd be good with either Kirilloff or Julien getting those ABs. I don't think Miranda is healthy right now, and on a team I'm expecting to do well that has some depth I'm just not willing to force guys with options onto the opening day roster when it means cutting a guy I think can still play. I'm not saying your force Gordon on the roster all year. If he starts off like he did last year and the team stays healthy for a month while Miranda or Martin or Lee or whoever is tearing St Paul apart I make the move then. I just don't think it makes sense, or is necessary, before opening day. Agree on Bellinger. Would love him on a 3 year deal. But definitely not happening.

I don't know that it really is a higher priority. They're not spending any extra money on it. They had Hoffman and Coulombe in camp last year as the random Jackson, Staumont, Duarte, etc. guys. This is pretty much what they do every year. Claim a bunch of guys, sign some minor league deals, or end of the 40-man deals, and see what shakes out in spring, try to get some through waivers at the end, and send whoever they can to St Paul as added depth to start the year. Then they weed through them the first half of the year until they settle on their mix for August/September. I think they just have found a few guys we like more than usual the last couple years and it's slowly built up depth so that we're more confident in it. I mean Stewart was a random guy they picked up last year, but now we're banking on him being the #2 or 3 guy in the pen.

Because both Julien and Kirilloff are already playing the field. The position doesn't matter, just the numbers. Who are your 9 starters against righties? I'd say Catcher of the day, Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Wallner, Buxton, and Kepler are locked into lineup spots against righties. That's 8 spots. Then it's Castro, Farmer, Santana, other catcher, and, in this discussion, Martin or Gordon. If Gordon is 2022 Gordon he's the 9th guy in the order, if I'm making the lineup card. I agree it's a numbers game, and I think the numbers game says Gordon makes a lot of sense on the opening day roster if they believe he can be 2022 Gordon.

Also resting Buxton and getting some DH PAs against righties. If they think Gordon is 2022 Gordon he'll DH over Santana against righties. The question is who Gordon really is. I think it's worth a month of the season to find out. Won't kill the team.

I'd say significantly better. Injuries are going to happen. I have concerns that they hold onto some vets too long, but I don't trust Martin as much as you and others appear to. He hasn't been great at AAA so I'm really not trying to clear an MLB spot for him on a team that should be trying to fight for a playoff run. 21 guys got PAs for the Twins last year. 17 guys got more than 150 PAs. That's nearly 2 entire lineups worth of guys. They had 14 guys get 250+ PAs (basically what Martin got at AAA last year), and a 15th at 239. 16 guys over 200 PAs. I just don't believe in clearing opening day roster spots for guys who've never seen an MLB pitch because I think it hurts your chances to maximize success over 162+. I don't see the need to open up a spot for him on the opening day roster. He'll get his chance. I'd rather have a slightly worse Gordon (if he's actually worse at all) on opening day than have to rely on a significantly worse player later on because I wanted to force Martin on the opening day roster.

Ideally the young guys put them in a spot to make some really tough decisions in the next couple years. I'd bet/hope that they use some option years to really let things play out. That's part of my hesitation with people wanting to clear too much space for young guys (like dropping Gordon to start Martin in MLB). It's certainly not ideal to have guys start in AAA when they're MLB ready, but it really gives them the best chance to maximize their team over 162 and into the playoffs. I didn't like Ober starting in AAA last year, but it worked out great, I think. Making the same kind of moves to get some guys established while maintaining maximum depth for the next few years sounds ideal to me. Don't rely on having guessed right, but give yourself some time to find the top guys even if it means Wallner, Julien and Ober types have to spend a little extra time on the farm. To tie this back into the Royals theme here, I think the near-term future of the Central is going to be determined by which squad picks the right young guys to build around. Cleveland and Detroit especially have some young guys on the cusp as well. Most of KC's youth is here so they've tried to open a 2 year window to give them a little length. But the Central overall is young. The team that keeps the best, and makes the best trades for the rest, can really take hold of this division.

I think it's a question of is he so much better than Gordon that it's worth getting rid of Gordon for? I think that's a pretty big leap and it's pretty reasonable to hold onto Gordon to start the year and let Martin show he can dominate AAA before they force themselves to rely on him for MLB production.

I'd be good with a position player, too. Doesn't need to be pitching as far as I'm concerned. Jorge Soler for 3 years would make me happy, and I believe should be affordable. I don't expect that, but I think 3/45 (I think that was The Athletic's estimate for him) should be a realistic deal for the Twins, and it comes off the books right as the youngsters start getting truly costly (assuming they perform well the next few years). If they could get an arm for 3 years I'd be happy with that, too, but I don't think that's realistic for Montgomery or Snell (I'm terrified of paying Snell anyways). But maybe there's an arm with 3 years of control left that they could trade for? I don't know. I just see a 3 year window where I wish they'd be aggressive with some things while still being reasonable. Even getting to 135ish this year in payroll (where they were in 2022) would give them a shot at someone like Soler I think. Or a trade if there's someone available that makes sense.

I have never said there's no reason to reduce payroll from 2023. Never. Not once. I've argued that it's a short-term view that I don't agree with and I wish they'd choose to take a financial risk, or even guaranteed loss in 2024 from a Twins LLC perspective only, to invest in their product for the long-term growth of their company because it's pocket change for them as a family. I accept and acknowledge the 2024 profit situation and am not arguing that they could spend 150+ and still make their desired profit, or any profit. I'm not going to go down this road with you again. You care about the Pohlad's year over year profit and trust public estimates of their revenue. I don't care about the Pohlad's making profits every year and don't trust public estimates. We know where we each stand on that. We're not having that discussion again. But none of that is the point I was making when I responded to that other poster. The point is that the arb money doesn't start hurting until 2027 because of the offsetting loss of contracts the next 2 offseasons. So any room they have now will still be there until 2027. So if they wanted to/had the room to add a contract this offseason they have a 3 year window before it actually starts hurting them. 2027 is the year where things come together between the arb raises and large contracts they have now. Not 2025 or 2026. 2027.

You're assuming they had 267 in revenue. You're assuming they actually spent the BAM money on the roster. You're assuming that revenue doesn't grow. You're assuming just as much as the rest of us. Yes, the arb money will go up 15-20 mil in 2026. And the base comes down 17.5 with Vazquez and Paddack no longer on the roster. So now you're up about 3 mil total. So, like I said, if they were going to be sticking in that 150+ range (didn't say they should, didn't say they would, said if they were going to) they'd have plenty of space for a Montgomery or Snell or whatever big contract they wanted until 2027 when they don't lose contracts to make up for the boost in arb deals. Let's say it's 140, though, if they can't find a way to make 20 mil useful in adding wins to this team (free agency isn't the only way to increase payroll spend) they should find new people to run the team.

I see just over 90 mil in payroll for next year (I highly doubt they keep Farmer at another 6 mil clip, and Alcala is holding on by a thread) before pre-arb and arb deals. 37 for Correa, 15 for Buck, 10 for Vazquez, 22 for Lopez, 7.5 for Paddack puts you in the low 90s. The arb raises in the first year for those guys is going to be very minimal. Couple million a piece or so. So then you'd be at 100ish mil including those guys. Correa's money starts going down after that while they also lose Vazquez and Paddack money which allows for the higher arb numbers as those guys hit their 2nd year of arbitration. The money doesn't really start being a problem until 2027 when those guys will be deep into the arb process. But 2027 is Lopez's last year, and none of the other young guys hit arbitration until 2027/2028 (depending on super 2 status). And 2028 is the last year of guaranteed money for Buxton and Correa. So you have nearly 70 mil coming off the books after 2027/2028. And typically you expect payrolls to keep increasing year over year with inflation and the natural growth of the business. I'd argue the Twins are in great position to add money if they were going to be sticking in that 150+ mil range this year and growing. But they've chosen not to so here we are talking about pillow contracts. But with all the talk of turning over most of the roster to pre-arb players the Twins could/should be in a great spot to sign another big deal through 2027/2028. The pre-arb contracts have them in a great spot.