chpettit19

I really hope Royce puts the Twins in a position after this year that the Witt deal is the kind of thing we're looking at for a Royce extension. Would be fun to see those 2 (probably with Robert if he's still in Chicago) battle it out for best player in the central for the next decade (as Ramirez starts to decline).

Michael Wacha is going into his age 32 season, not 34. Here's a couple of Twins pitchers and some guys who are older than Wacha. From the last 2 years. So that's actually Wheeler's ages 32-33 seasons that the Royals just signed Wacha for.

I don't know if embarrassing is the right word, but it certainly doesn't make me thrilled that the Twins are seeing their competitive window open and are choosing to slash payroll instead of trying to take advantage of a super weak division. KC and Detroit are trying. I know we all like to point at the young Twins players and say we're golden because they're going to improve, but those teams have young guys that should improve as well. Along with Cleveland. I think our perceived superiority in the central is overstated. I think it's a tighter race than people expect. Not because those other 3 teams are great, but because the Twins aren't either. Cleveland won this division going away in 2022 with young talent that was certain to improve and give them the chance to dominate this division. The Twins standing pat and making no overall improvement to the 2024 team has kept the door open for the other teams to make a run. If I believed Twins ownership cared about winning I'd say they should be embarrassed. But I don't think that's their priority so I don't think it's the right word for them. But it certainly isn't encouraging as a fan that they're getting outspent by KC and we're watching 2 other division teams at least make noticeable efforts to improve their team overall while the Twins seem to be content shifting pieces around while not increasing their overall talent. We'll see who's young talent is able to carry them this year. I think it'll be more of a battle than folks expect.

Not looking for guesses on other moves they'll make moving forward and what they may do to the win total, but we've finally had some moves made and the reactions seem to be pretty varied. Wanted to get a feel for where people are at on this team as it stands today. So if opening day were tomorrow and we were running out the team as it stands at 2 PM central on 2/5/2024, how many wins do you all think the Twins will earn in 2024?

Interesting. Why is that? Do you prefer a different publication over him? We all have different tastes in lists so just curious what you don't put stock in with Law.

I don't think we see a Kepler extension before the season. Emma is going to start using up options this year and they're going to give him every chance to earn an MLB spot the next couple seasons. Not to mention Martin, Gordon, Larnach, and even Kirilloff depending on how all the young guys pan out. I'd expect the Twins to let the season play out and see what those guys do to see if they believe they can fill the role internally for 2025 and beyond. It most certainly puts them in a tough spot after the year if nobody else shows they're a good cOF option for 2025, but I don't think they're going to lock themselves into Kepler before the year. Unless it's on a deal that doesn't include a raise of any kind, but I'm not sure why he'd sign a deal like that.

My guess is their plan is to give Gordon run early to see what he can do. I don't think they care as much about option flexibility as they do depth. Since he's cheap I'd guess they're more open to moving on from him early. Wouldn't surprise me to see him moved during the spring, maybe even as opening day approaches depending on how everyone has played and what other team's needs are. Totally on board with the idea that the 26th guy, 13th hitter really, should be someone with options or a difference maker. Mostly because I don't see any other hitters they're likely to move on from with a DFA. Unless Castro is someone they're willing to bounce back and forth if he struggles early. Santana and Farmer aren't getting cut would be my guess. I hope they haven't shut the door on adding a legit heart of the order bat, but my guess is we're looking at more or less the start of st roster.

You know I'm all for the payroll going up. I just don't expect it. My guess is only small moves from here on out, but my hope is a difference maker. They've surprised me before so we'll see.

I'd guess Snell, Montgomery, Bellinger, and Soler are hoping the finalization of the Bally bankruptcy stuff opens their markets a little more. I would be a little surprised if the Twins handed out any multi-year deals this offseason, unless it's an internal extension. I think on a 1 year deal it'll take 15-20 to sign Soler (he turned down his up to 13 mil option so going to need more than that), but 3/39-45 sounds about right for a multi-year deal for him. I'm just not sold the Twins have even 15 more to spend this offseason or that they'll do multi-year deals so I'm not sold they could get Soler. I'd think if he were a possibility they wouldn't have signed Santana. But I'd be very happy to be surprised.

Then Castro is in the same boat as Gordon because neither is taking ABs away from any of the everyday lefties in the lineup. I don't think they have any major moves left because I don't think they're looking to spend anymore money. But, yes, Soler would be a ceiling raiser and that I'd be on board with. Bringing in any of these other mid- to upper-30s guys doesn't interest me at all. They have the floor set and they don't need to add more to it. They don't need to add another $5-10 mil veteran they won't move on from in the name of "depth" even if they're terrible all year. Farmer and Santana are enough. If they're going to spend 15-20 on Soler, great, but I don't think that's a realistic option.

Isn't Castro that guy? I mean there's no harm in that, but I don't see it making this team any better. Buxton, Kepler, Correa, and Lewis have everyday jobs locked down. Wallner, Julien, and Kirilloff are starting against all the righties. Farmer, Santana, and Castro are starting against all the lefties. Jeffers and Vazquez are splitting duties behind the plate. At least that's how I'd read it right now. That means they have 8 lineup spots locked in vs righties, and 8 lineup spots locked in vs lefties. If they're equally talented why does it matter if it's Gordon or right handed hitter X? I think the real argument would simply be that you want the best CF replacement you can get. No matter which side of the plate they hit from. I'd say Buxton insurance is the biggest need and it's just a matter of deciding if you like Gordon or someone outside the org better for that. C: Jeffers 55-60%, Vazquez 40-45% 1B: Kirilloff vs righties, Santana vs lefties 2B: Julien vs righties, Farmer vs lefties 3B: Lewis SS: Correa LF: Wallner vs righties, Castro vs lefties CF: Buxton as much as he can, Gordon (for now) when Buxton can't go RF: Kepler DH: Rotating I don't see a huge difference in having a RH bat instead of Gordon, unless you think Castro is a clear upgrade as the Buxton insurance in CF and you just want another RH bat for LF with Wallner.

I didn't suggest giving any rookies opening day jobs. The 26 man is full with 0 rookies on it. My point is that if you're going to add outside talent make it be clearly above average talent, not guys who's most likely best outcome is being a league average guy. The Twins have enough of those. Adding more doesn't improve this team.

The Twins have enough floor. It's time to start adding ceiling. Kike is not a ceiling adder. Let's stop looking for league average, at best, veterans with no futures for this team and raise our expectations a little. DeSclafani and Santana are enough floor additions for this team. If they aren't going to add ceiling raising talent just let the kids play.

No available RH OF bat outside of Jorge Soler raises the ceiling on this team. They have enough floor. It's time to start adding ceiling, and none of the retread mid- to upper-30s vets are doing that. If they're not going to sign or trade for legitimate ceiling raising talent it's time to just let the kids play.

Per Gleeman, Santana hasn't topped a .730 OPS against righties since 2019. His resurgence last year got him to .727. A 103 OPS+ in his resurgence year isn't very exciting. Uninspiring is probably the word I'd use here. When you surge back to league average as a 37 year old I'm not going to bet on you being a huge piece as a 38 year old. Short side of a platoon at 1B/DH doesn't feel like a huge hole filled. 103 OPS+ is not someone I want to "factor into the middle of the lineup" as Nick suggests. Against righties he's a bottom of the lineup hitter at best. I've always loved his approach at the plate, and I'll definitely welcome a guy who's going to help the team's miserable K rate. This putting the payroll back where it was with Polanco while the team knows more or less what their Bally deal is worth (according to reports) sure feels like they've maxed out the budget. I hope to be surprised with more moves, but this feels like more or less the squad that's heading to Florida in a couple weeks. We shall see.

Yeah, they're interesting to follow. No more Burnes, Woodruff (his injury blew that up anyways), or Houser in the rotation, but added Hoskins. Peralta, Miley, Ross, Rea, Gasser is a much different rotation than Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta. I'd bet they think Hall is ready to plug into the rotation and have some high hopes for him. Or Misiorowski. They've got a lot of young guys who have debuted, or are ready to debut, so I can understand the Hoskins signing if you think your youngsters are ready now. But that rotation took a massive hit this offseason and they're trying to thread a pretty tight needle here. Luckily for them the NL Central isn't a great division by any means. But what they do with Adames will be interesting. Maybe more of a deadline deal after they see what Ortiz can do?

Do the Brewers think Ortiz is ready to hit enough to be their starting SS and try to spin Adames into something else now? If Hall or Misiorowski can step into the rotation and live up to their prospect rankings over the years they could still be very good. Or both of them end up with Williams in the pen and they would have an absolute wipeout pen. They seem to be trying to pull off the ol' "competitive rebuild" as they transition to a new young core. Will be interesting to see which of their young guys can step up and if this is the start of something really good or if it turns into a flat out rebuild.

Doesn't he already throw a sweeper? I don't know enough about his arsenal to know what to call his slider. But I'd think a change would be the more likely 3rd pitch if he's fastball slider now, but I don't know what his slider is really like. But I'd think their belief in his ability to efficiently add a 3rd pitch would be the deciding factor. At 23 he doesn't have a ton of time to tinker with a 3rd pitch. But certainly hope that's what he's working on right now!

He's such a wildly difficult player to peg because of his injuries (super rare for the Twins recently, I know). He's had some stretches where I get super excited for who he can be because he looks like a perennial All Star who can do it all at the plate. Then he falls off and looks completely lost. I still think he has maybe the most natural hitting ability on the team, but he needs to show it in a healthy season. If Lee and Martin take off early, or even Severino and/or Miranda, I could definitely see them considering Kirilloff as a trade chip. Julien got some games in the cOF a few years ago and I really wish I knew what that looked like. I don't expect Lewis to be considered an OF option ever, but I'd put him out there if it were up to me and it'd allow for the best 9 guys to be in the lineup. But I know the CF injury has lead to a lot of trepidation there, including by him. So I don't expect it, but if I were running the team it'd be on the table for me. Lee has no shot, though. I've seen him run and he should limit that to short areas in the IF. I wonder what Julien vs Kirilloff in the OF is like. I question how bad Julien was if they decided the fielder we saw early in the year last year was better than the defender they saw for 120ish innings out there in the minors. Would he be better or worse than Kirilloff out there?

Will be very interesting to see if they move him directly to the pen or try to keep him as a starter. He's 23 (well technically not for 2 more days) so he's nowhere near young for an A ball pitcher (not old either, but not young). I assume they'd plan to move him to A+ to start the year, or very quickly there after, but it'll be interesting to see if they have him starting or just throw him in the A+ pen and see if he can take off like a rocket through the system by just relying on maxing out his 2 best pitches. Don't have any opinion of my own (shocking, I know!) on what to do with him, but will just be interested to see what they end up doing.

Gabriel Gonzalez for Alek Manoah and a low level flier would be an interesting trade to me, assuming Manoah's medicals are clear and the Twins believe they know what went so crazy last year. I wonder what Toronto would say if the Twins called with that kind of deal. Wonder if their plans to move him would change. I only pick Gonzalez because he's never even stepped foot in the Twins facility (to my knowledge).

I think this all comes down to price. How much do the Twins actually have to spend? If it's just the 5+ cleared in the Polanco deal there's really not anything I'd be excited about available. If they're taking that 5 and adding it to another 5-10ish that they had available already then I'm in on some guys. Soler would be my #1 target if there's available funds for him. 3 years, 45 mil would be a deal I'd sign for sure on him if that's what it takes. I want nothing to do with Buxton as primary DH. If he can't play CF regularly put him on the IL. I wouldn't love the lack of flexibility from JD, but I'd take him on a 1 year deal if they're not willing to do any multi-year deals for Soler. If they think JD has another year in him at what he did last year he'd be a significantly better hitter in the DH spot than cycling through other guys. If they still had Polanco I'd be on board with the cycling through idea, but at this point cycling through is just putting lesser hitters into the lineup. If they bring in Soler because they were able to free up just enough money in the Polanco deal I'll have a much better opinion of the Polanco deal. Let's see what they can do.

I think the Twins love Kirilloff. It's never safe to assume they won't trade someone, but I think their "offensive profile" stuff is overblown here. Alex Kirilloff started 73 games last year. 74% of those starts (54) came in the 2, 3, or 4 spots in the lineup. That doesn't scream "he doesn't fit our profile!" to me. That says they think he's one of their best hitters. Add in his 8 starts in the 5 hole and you're at 85% of his starts being in the absolute heart of the order. I think the Twins very much believe in Kirilloff's bat. His concern is his health. Because of that I think this is a bit of a "make or break" year for him in terms of staying in the plans as the primary 1B. If he can't stay healthy this year he's likely out of the plans when it comes to building teams moving forward. Not that he'd necessarily be dealt, but just that they'd not really take him into account when planning their team and anything they get from him would be bonus moving forward. But for 2024 I think their only concern with him is health. You don't hit a guy in the 3 hole more often than any other spot in the lineup if you don't trust his bat.

Yes, if Kepler is his 2nd half self for a full season we'll be talking about whether or not they can/should extend him. And I have my fingers crossed for that.

I meant from this point. We've already lost Polanco so the offense is what it is already. Switching Kepler for Soler would boost the offense, in my opinion.